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About BigTed3

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  1. There would be 24 teams still alive, which means that each team's chances of winning the Cup, if all things were equal, would be about 4%. Now factor in that the Habs are the lowest-ranking team to be allowed into the post-season and that they will be the "road team" for all their series. That won't mean home ice or home fans for the other team, but it probably means last line change and so on goes the other way. And then to boot, the re-seeding every round ensures we get the best team left every round. So while I agree with you that we have a chance against Pittsburgh, I don't like our odds of taking down Pittsburgh and then maybe 3 of Boston, Tampa, Washington, and Philly just to get to the Cup finals, followed by the best team in the West. I'd say our odds of winning most of those series are under 50%. If you peg the odds of our winning each individual series at about 40%, then our overall chances of winning the Cup would come in at around 1% on the nose. Personally, I'd rather have the 12.5% chance of getting Lafreniere and a 100% chance of drafting in the top 9 instead of a 1% chance of winning the Cup and a 100% chance of drafting 16th or worse.
  2. I don't know what the NHL has decided for this year, since they keep changing their rules for draft position, but traditionally, if a team is eliminated in the 1st or 2nd round of the playoffs then they are ranked by reverse order of regular season finish. The only exceptions to that are division winners, who get bumped to the end of the list. Teams that make the conference finals or better are the last 4 teams to pick. So given that we didn't win our division, the only way we would be picking worse than 16th is if we made it all the way to the ECF, which would mean winning the play-in series AND winning two more rounds, all the while doing this while being re-seeded every round to face the best remaining team in the East. So our path would mean beating Pittsburgh and then likely two of Bos, TB, Was, and Phi. Seems like a tall order. As I've said, the Habs got a big screwjob from the league in this whole thing. The league made the playoffs harder for lower seeds to advance with the whole re-seeding thing. At the same time, they made the draft lottery odds lower for teams just outside the bottom 7 by making teams 8-15 equal in draft odds. Teams 1-7 retained their same draft odds. The Habs, as 8th-last, should have had a 6% shot at the top pick. Instead, teams 8-15 saw their odds lumped together and the Habs ended up with a 1 in 8 chance of the 24% pooled chances (so in essence a 3% chance at the top pick). Those odds have gone up now that the pooled placeholder spot one top prize, but we still saw our overall odds drop from 6% to 3%. The rest of the teams ranked 9-15 also had 3% odds, which was a drop-off for the Habs and the two teams ranked right below us (Chicago and Arizona), though Chicago's odds fell from 5% to 3% and Arizona's only from 3.5% to 3%. So Montreal is given the slimmest of hopes of making the playoffs and in exchange they see their odds of a top 3 pick slashed and their odds of the top pick cut in half and instead of a guaranteed top 11 pick and 99.6% chance of a top 10 pick, now there's probably something like a 40-45% chance the Habs win a play-in series and see their pick drop to 16th or worse. No other team got it worse in terms of seeing their draft odds drop and no other team got it worse in terms of the re-seeding hurting their chances of moving through the post-season. Like I said, giant middle finger from Bettman to our club.
  3. Not only that, but if you lose int he play-in, you're at worst the 9th overall pick. If you win that one series, you're at best the 16th overall pick.
  4. Yeah, that's right. Teams who finished in the bottom 7 just had their lottery and retained the same odds they would have had normally. Teams 8 through 15 were given a chance for a play-in to the playoffs but in exchange lost their draft pick odds. Teams 16-23 lost their guaranteed playoff status but saw their draft pick odds increase if they miss the playoffs. Teams 24-31 didn't see any real change in anything. But at the end of the day, the Habs probably got the biggest screwjob of anyone. Because for us, we had the best odds of a top pick out of the 8-15 teams and we have statistically the worst odds of winning a Cup (especially since teams will be re-seeded after every round, so no matter how many rounds we win, we always have the toughest opponent every subsequent round). If we lost the play-in (or if the season never happens), we theoretically should have had a 25% chance of winning the next lottery based on previous odds (6% odds of top pick out of 24% total assigned to teams 8-15). Instead we have half of that. Meanwhile, like you said, better teams like Pittsburgh and Toronto can also end up with Lafreniere if they falter in 3 games. My picks for the play in series would see the following 8 teams in the Lafreniere sweepstakes: Hawks, Coyotes, Wild, Flames, Blue Jackets, Islanders, Rangers, and... Pens. Yeah, I absolutely wouldn't be surprised to see the Habs knock off the Pens behind a fresh Carey Price and then get run out of the post-season by the Bruins or TB or Was or whoever else.
  5. All that said, Habs got screwed over by NHL today. The league had previously said that the teams that lost play-in (or the non-playoff teams if no season played) who would be in the 8th to 15th -last spots right now would be ranked accordingly, with the Habs being the 8th-worst team having the best odds of being the lottery winners. As "Team A" they would have been given their 6% chances among the 24% or so chances leftover for that group of teams, so essentially a 1 in 4 chance at being the 2nd lottery winner. With the change now to announce all 2nd phase lottery teams as having equal odds, our chances at Lafreniere just went down by half. Unclear why non-playoff teams 1 through 7 got to retain their odds but if the season never happens, why the Habs don't get the odds that go along with their 8th-last finish.
  6. So here are the scenarios for the Habs: - If the season never happens, the Habs are "Team A" for the lottery. However, the NHL announced today that all 8 teams that would have been non-playoff teams based on the last standings before the stoppage will each have equal odds of winning the second lottery and taking the first overall pick. So if there's no more season, the Habs get a 1 in 8 shot at 1st overall. If they don't win the lottery, they pick 9th. - If the play-in happens and the Habs lose to Pittsburgh, they likewise become "Team A" and again have a 1 in 8 chance of winning the lottery and moving up to 1st overall. If they don't win the lottery, they once again move into the 9th overall spot. - If the Habs win their play-in against Pittsburgh, then Pittsburgh goes into the lottery instead. The Habs then end up with at best the 16th overall pick (and in fact will get the 16th overall pick if they lose in the next round of the playoffs). I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm pulling for the Habs to lose to Pittsburgh. I'd rather have a 12.5% shot at Lafreniere and if not he 9th overall pick rather than have a less than 1 in 16 shot at a Cup and a guaranteed pick of 16th overall or worse. I don't like our odds of winning the Cup, but a 1 in 8 shot at a franchise-changing local hero is nothing to sneeze at.
  7. You're banking against the owners' and Bettman's greed though. Right now, the US is a disaster zone for COVID, especially Florida and Arizona. But until we know for sure what the hub cities are, we don't know if that affects anything. The NHL might choose to play its games in two cities that are a bit safer and choose to ignore the big picture. We know players and staff are going to be put at risk to some degree, but even with the Tampa outbreaks, the NHL is moving to Phase 2 of their plan and allowing 12 skaters to skate together at a time now (instead of just 6). So they seem to be forging ahead despite the setback medically. I think the NHL is going to try and get their playoffs in and then maybe back off on starting next season if there's trouble. If we don't see an end to this year, it'll likely be because the NHLPA steps in.
  8. Yes and no. On the one hand, they're being inclusive like you said. On the other, teams like Arizona and Chicago were points out with the team they were chasing holding a game in hand. I don't think either team had a realistic shot at the Cup, and it's not like anyone is gaining/losing gate revenue by being included or excluded from a neutral site playoff. Personally, I don't love the idea of including so many teams. I understand maybe including a touch more than 16 so that you satisfy both those who would be ahead based on point percentage vs. actual accumulated points in the standings, but if you would have stopped at 20 teams, that likely would have been enough. At a certain point, if you're not good enough to be in the playoffs, you're not good enough and I don't think teams can be crying about losing out when they're the 21st or 23rd best teams in a 31-team league. To some degree, the playoffs may be a crapshoot of who avoids having players get sick or go on quarantine and with less of a home ice advantage, it doesn't give much reward to the teams that have played well thus far. I'd have preferred to see them not make a squad like Pittsburgh have to go through a play-in. From our end, we're clearly not one of the best 16 teams in the league, and it's a bit of a sham to just throw us into the playoffs. I think we're being done a disservice by giving the organization some false sense of success and by taking away our shot at a top 3 draft pick. Getting into a play-in series might actually end up setting us back a few years insofar as draft position goes and insofar as the team evaluating itself as being more accomplished than it actually is. Does Bergevin end up keeping his job a year or two extra now because "we made the playoffs"?
  9. Only TB and Carolina voted against it. So I think teams just want to get back to playing no matter whether they like the format or not...
  10. Well it sounds like this thing is going to pass the vote. They needed 18 of 31 teams to agree to it and it sounds like they got that, even if it wasn't unanimous. So that means the NHL is going to move forward with the idea of the 24-team playoffs. It also means the lottery will likely limit how much you can move up so that you can't be a playoff team and win the first overall pick. I think this is bad news for the Habs, because they're going to lose out on the draft lottery without having much chance of winning a Cup (and yes, their odds of winning are low because if there are 24 teams in and we're the 24-seed, our odds are going to be lower than 1 in 24). So it sounds like as the 12th team in in the East, we would draw the 5 seed (Pittsburgh). Pittsburgh has claimed they voted in favor of the proposal but reluctantly so and preferred a 16-team playoff because they're not happy about facing Carey Price in a best-of-5 series that he could steal. So play-in best of 5 series would be 5 Pit vs. 12 Mtl 6 Car vs. 11 Fla 7 Tor vs 10 NYR 8 Clb vs 9 NYI ... at least according to current NHL official standings. However, if they change things up and go by point percentage won, some of those teams could move around a bit. Meanwhile, Bos, Tampa, Was, and Phi would play some kind of a round robin to determine the top 4 seeding. It means that our path to a Cup would likely be Pit in a best of 5, followed by the top seed among the 4 highest seeds in a best of 7, and then 3 more series of best of 7... like I said, not high odds. You could potentially have to go through all of Pit, TB, Bos, and Was all on the road.
  11. Thumbs down for me. I'd rather they keep the lottery the original way and give us a shot at #1 overall than get into the playoffs as the 24 seed and lose our draft position. The only upside to getting in is that it would likely be a complete crapshoot as to who advances... players will take time to get into gameshape again and if the playoffs start with play-in best of 3's as has been proposed, the Habs could easily knock out the Canes, for example, and move on. Would I watch? Yep. Would I cheer the on? Yep. But not sure it would be a high priority in my life right now and not sure I'd have high hopes of making it all the way through to winning a Cup.
  12. Vatanen's a UFA with an injury history and I don't know the Canes were planning on bringing him back. Edmundson and Van Riemsdyk are also UFA's. Likewise, Gardiner didn't have a great year and might not be viewed as a longterm top 4 solution. They paid a 1st rounder to get Skjei at the deadline, and I don't think they would trade him for Tatar and a 2nd straight up (given Tatar will be on an expiring contract, whereas Skjei is signed longterm). I highly doubt they're giving up Skjei and two of their better young players for anything close to what you listed there. Acquiring Skjei alone probably starts with a 1st and a prospect or else a top prospect like a Romanov, Caufield, or so on. Otherwise, why would Carolina trade away their 1st and then turn around and trade away a defenceman in his prime for less? IMO, if we're going to trade with Carolina, the D man to target is Jake Bean, who is NHL-ready now and who might have trouble cracking the regular line-up right away.
  13. Agreed. I'm not losing any sleep over losing out on Houde or Fonstad. Neither one has impressed me that much. McShane has been up and down but has had some good stretches. Has maybe a better shot than the other two of having a professional career, but I doubt he becomes a top 6-9 player and is likely replaceable in the system.
  14. Just going to remind everyone of this... here are some scouting reports on Alexei Emelin from before he came over to join the Habs: Strengths: A very physical blueliner who skates well for his size. His shot is also an impressive weapon. Weaknesses: Discipline has long been a concern with him; he often takes himself out of the play to make the big hit. Despite his offensive tools, he has yet to have a big impact in that element. Projected Role: Top four defenceman *** In addition to being a tough, gritty defenseman who excels in the physical side of the game, Emelin's offensive production has risen drastically in recent years. Emelin was a mainstay on the blue line for AK Bars Kazan, winning back-to-back Gagarin Cups as KHL champions. *** From GM Pierre Gauthier at the time: “We are very pleased to have reached an agreement with Alexsey Emelin. Alexsey is a steady, physical defenseman with strong skating ability. The experience he has acquired in the KHL over the past few years will make for a smooth transition to the NHL" *** Many compare him to Kasparaitis. Yes, it’s not a bad comparison, although Emelin has bigger offensive skills. Those are just a few of the reports on Emelin and while there's no Doughty comparison there, there was lots of talk about Emelin being a big hitter (which turned out to be true), a great skater (meh), and have a great shot with offensive upside (I'd say his shot was underrated here but he hardly produced anything offensively with it). I see Romanov as being an NHL-caliber D man who has a shot at stepping in right away. But while he's been strong physically and has a decent shot and skating, it remains to be seen if he'll be any more effective than Emelin, who came over with a similar scouting report. True that Emelin wasn't as dominant in junior as Romanov, but their contributions in Russia at the adult level weren't that dissimilar. Exciting to think we have a highly-regarded prospect in Romanov, but far from being a sure thing that he'll be more than a #4 D man.
  15. Habs have signed Cam Hillis to an ELC. Bergevin had previously said he was likely to sign only one of Hillis, McShane, Fonstad, and Houde, so odds are slim for the other three of getting a contract now.