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BigTed3

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Everything posted by BigTed3

  1. Savard has been awful again tonight. Looked like he pushed a Nashville player into Allen on the 3rd goal. He was on for a 2.5 minute shift when the 2nd goal went in. Tons of mistakes, out of position, too slow... remember when the Habs figured we needed to give Alzner a chance and that we were still better off with him in the line-up than paying him for a buyout? Savard is Alzner 2.0 (if you don't count all of MB's other botched defenceman decisions between them). I'd rather bury Savard in the minors and bring up a minimum-wage guy than keep Savard in the lineup. With Clague and Edmundson both coming soon, there's no reason for Savard.
  2. Well Clague was actually on waivers earlier in the year and everyone passed on him (and I wanted to claim him back then too), so we know MB had decided against him recently. Definitely glad we have a GM like Gorton willing to give a younger player with skill a chance. You can argue MB signed Niku, but Niku hasn't been given much opportunity here and seems to be more of a liability than Clague appears to be.
  3. Clague was a prospect I really liked coming out of junior. Strong skater and puck mover in the minors. Has struggled a bit at the NHL level but had a decent season last year and has been playing better in recent games for LA. Many think he could break out and become a true top 4 D man at some point, so he's worth the risk. Last year he had strong relative possession numbers. This year, not as good, but to put that in perspective, he's been paired almost exclusively with either Alex Edler or Olli Maatta, and both those guys have been horrid possession players for several years. I'd love to see if Clague could do well next to a guy like Petry. They could easily stabilize each other.
  4. With Clague claimed, it adds another body to the left side, this one with offensive potential. Have to believe that it unfortunately spells the end of Norlinder in Montreal for the season (or an imminent trade for Ben Chiarot), but regardless, we still have 1. Only one competent RHD 2. No need/room for Savard I'd line them up Clague-Petry Norlinder-Chiarot Romanov-Kulak
  5. HABS CLAIM CLAGUE! YES!!! Go Gorton.
  6. Suzuki and Caufield really haven't clicked this year. Caufield hasn't produced with anyone, and Suzuki has been better without CC. I'd actually be interested to see CC paired with Drouin like you said (give CC someone who can move the puck up ice and pass to him) and Poehling (give him a bigger center who can make space). As for Suzuki, I'd give him Toffoli, who he's had success with before and I'd give him Armia, another player who has struggled but who can provide size and puck recovery skill. Drouin-Poehling-Caufield Toffoli-Suzuki-Armia
  7. Habs confirm Hoffman and Norlinder both in for this one, with Dauphin and Schuenamann both waiting to get their first game. Allen starts.
  8. Not sure why LA made Kale Clague available again but he's a 23 year-old LHD with offensive upside available on waivers. We'll find out today if Gorton likes him enough to claim him. Only Ari and Ott have dibs ahead of us...
  9. I'm not a Dvorak fan either so far, but on the basis of what I said, I'd keep him for now. I don't like where his trade value is at at this point.
  10. 50% is 5.25M though. I'm just saying that you need to add that amount to whoever's replacing him's salary to generate the difference in savings. Let's say the alternative is to go with Allen as a #1 and find another goalie to play tandem with him. Well then the difference in salary to your #1 is 10.5M down to 2.9M and that's probably about as good as you're going to get for a starting goalie. But if you add the 5.25M to the 2.9M, then you're paying over 8M in cap hit for the next 4 years to be left with Allen as your starter. So would you rather have Price-Primeau as a duo for 11.5M and trade Allen or Allen-Primeau as a duo for 4M and be paying Price an extra 5M? Is that extra 2.5M in cap space worth the downgrade in net and the return on what you're getting? I'll say right off the top that we're not getting a top 5 pick for Price. Any team picking top 5 isn't a Cup contender in the short term, which means their priority isn't a goalie in his mid-30s, nor is it likely that Price waives his NTC to go to that team at this stage in his career. If Price is going anywhere, it's because it's closer to home in BC and/or it's giving him a significant chance of winning a Cup. I could see him saying yes to Colorado, Vancouver, Edmonton, Toronto, NY Rangers, Washington, Pittsburgh, Vegas, Florida, Dallas, maybe an outside shot at a team like Calgary, NJ, or the Islanders. But not all those teams need goalies and not all those teams have cap space. So it would have to be a pretty impressive offer to get me to eat 5.25M for 4 years and I'm not sure what another team would come up with to make it worth it.
  11. I don't believe there's such a thing as an untouchable. Everyone has a price. That said, I like to think of it more as which players have peak trade value right now. If I think their value is going to drop, I would deal them now, whereas I would hold onto guys whose value might go up or who provide more value to our line-up than the trade return would. So with that in mind, this is where I stand on some of the key players: - Chiarot: TRADE. The most obvious decision. Playing as well now as he has since he got here, should garner us a 1st and maybe more. At 30+, he's not helping this team in its new window to win. The trade return here should be worth much more to us. - Lehkonen: TRADE. I get that he's an RFA and we retain his rights. But the fact there's no commitment to salary and the fact he's a useful playoff piece means he has value to other teams right now. He's less valuable the minute we sign him to a 4-year deal for 3-4M a season (just look at Armia). Ultimately, Lehkonen could be a great piece to make a Cup run, and he was a huge component of our line-up last year in the post-season. But the counterpoint to that is that he doesn't score goals regularly and he'll never be more than a 3rd line or 4th line player. So am I ready next off-season to commit term and money to him (if we don't on his next deal, he'll become a UFA after)? Not really. I think now's the perfect time to trade him and get max return. - Petry: KEEP. I don't know how to explain his season thus far, but I have to think with his level of offensive production, salary, term, and age, he's not likely to bring us a significant return. We have very little on the right side moving forward (a reason I was pushing to acquire Matt Dumba two years ago in anticipation of Weber's play dropping off) so if you're not using Petry, you're using Savard and who else? Ultimately, I think Petry for the next year or two is still better than the return we would get for him. Maybe we re-consider this if his level of play picks up and he re-establishes value but I don't think selling low is the right strategy here. - Gallagher: TRADE. Like Petry, he's getting older and signed to a longer-term deal. But I think he still has value now and that we'd still get a good return here. I'd prefer to trade him before he falls off a cliff and we have a multitude of wingers to be able to replace him. - Toffoli: likely KEEP. Similar story to Gallagher. I think we can keep one of the two, so it depends on who has better trade value, but I worry more about Gallagher's contract and about Gally wearing down, so preference to keep Toffoli. - Anderson: KEEP. Provides something we don't have otherwise and seems to be a leader in the room. Could be a vet who shows the rookies how to play the right way. - Suzuki: KEEP. As close to an untouchable as we have. - Caufield, Romanov, Ylonen, Poehling, Norlinder, Primeau: KEEP... all developing players who we should be building around. They should all get better, no reason to trade any of them. - Savard: TRADE or BURY in minors. I doubt anyone takes him but don't see a need for him here. Cut our losses as best we can. - Allen: TRADE. Have detailed this elsewhere, but if we can get a return similar to Kuemper, he's worth more as a trade return than to our roster. If you're not in contention for the playoffs, you don't really need to spend 4M on a back-up to try and squeeze 6 more points out of the standings. - Price: TRADE if the return is good enough and we don't need to retain more than 2.5M. Otherwise KEEP. Still has value to us as a player and wouldn't be trading him if it weren't for the contract. - Hoffman: TRADE. Not sure what the return would be here but I think he has minimal value to us in the window we're in now. - Kulak: KEEP or TRADE. Again, I'd trade him if there were a decent return, but he probably won't garner more than a 3rd or 4th rounder. If he'll re-sign on a cheap deal, I'm not against keeping him. - Drouin: TRADE. I don't think he wants to be here long-term and I think he has value in a trade with only one more year on his contract after this one.
  12. That's around where I am too, 2-2.5M retained salary. It means the other team is getting a #1 for 8M a season, which is not unreasonable. It also means that if we sign a new guy for 5.5M, we're paying the same thing as the other team. If you retain 50% salary and you got out and get a new #1 for 5M a year, it means you're still effectively paying 10M+ for your starting goalie. So what's the advantage to that? Sure, if you were retaining salary for one year when you're not a contender, that's different. But we should be hoping to be back in contention in 2 years and we can't be hanging 4-5M on our cap in dead space. It's a huge handicap. So 2-2.5M for me, as long as it increases the value of the return. I wouldn't trade Price as a salary dump, he's worth more to us as a starting goalie at 10.5M than he is at 5M of dead cap space with no assets coming back.
  13. Loved what I heard from Gorton at the press conference today. Nice to hear someone finally state out loud that they can use analytics as a tool, that's it's the future of the game, and that they want to focus more resources on that. Nice to hear that he wants to build a team around skill and speed as opposed to size and grit like the last guy. Nice to hear that he wants to take some time to get to know the players and figure out what's working and what isn't. Nice to hear that he thinks we need to do better at prospect development, because that's been a huge weakness under Bergevin as well. And nice to hear that he's willing to think outside the box and try novel strategies. Stark contrast to what we heard from Bergevin for the past decade. This is the first time I've felt hopeful about Habs management since the day Michel Therrien was hired (that one move told me all I needed to know about how MB was going to run the team). I also wonder whether Gorton being in charge might help to bring Jordan Harris into the fold. There's a guy whose game is structured around strong analytics and puck control. So now suddenly you have a guy in charge who seems to support the style of game Harris plays and who is going to prioritize developing younger players. AND to boot, Gorton is from the Northeastern states and might have an in with Harris being from that area too. So I think our chances of convincing Harris to sign here just went up as well.
  14. I believe it was Eric Engels who polled a number of scouts/GMs and the consensus was that the starting price would be at least a 1st rounder and likely another piece (such as a 3rd rounder or a prospect). Chiarot is exactly what a lot of teams are looking for towards the playoffs: - Big guy who can play tough - Eats up a lot of minutes - Is a de facto 1st pairing D man for us right now - Scoring goals this year while playing both special team Again, if Savard was worth a 1st last year, then Chiarot is a better player and should be worth more. The keys to a good deal for us IMO will be 1. Dealing him to a team that still has a chance at missing the playoffs this year or dealing him for a 2023 1st to a team that might be all in this year but not as good next year. I've also pushed this latter part as a good strategy because the 2023 draft is deeper and because there's more variability that might allow for a good team this year to be a lottery team next year. 2. Trading him soon enough that he doesn't get hurt beforehand (eg breaking his hand in a fight again).
  15. Should be less of a problem with Gallagher, Anderson, Petry, and Niku all joining the ranks of the unfit to play group.
  16. Romanov has a broken nose. Anderson out 2-4 weeks with an upper body injury after being hit from behind by McDermid. Laurent Dauphin recalled in his place.
  17. With Price at 10.5M and their having literally 0$ of cap space, we'd have to retain salary and take probably 2 contracts back (Koskinen and someone else).
  18. Pierre LeBrun adding more to his Carey Price rumors today, saying there seems to be a fair bit of interest for Carey from contending teams and that two teams that make a lot of sense (which we here had figured out a long time ago) were Colorado and Edmonton. Neither team has any cap space though, for what it's worth, so may be more of an off-season move.
  19. But it led to a 5th goal on the season for the Edmonton Oilers' 1st round pick.
  20. Wow, how dumb is Aube-Kubel? Tries to fight Romanov because Romanov hit Poehling and cut himself on Poehling's mask. One of the dumbest things I've seen a hockey player do.
  21. If the Habs want a figurehead GM just to say that they have someone French to do press conferences, then yes, Briere fits that bill as well as anyone else. If they want someone to evaluate talent, make trades, make draft choices, negotiate contracts, find loopholes in the CBA, do cap management, etc. then I don't think Briere is the most qualified applicant and there's nothing wrong with saying that he lacks the same experience as others. It's a fact. It's not demeaning to Briere. He has a couple of years experience in the ECHL and nada with an NHL team or even AHL team. It's not to say he can't become good at the job, but we would benefit from having someone in place who has a database of pro and amateur players to be able to work with. If you're not basing the decision on what someone brings to the table experience-wise and track record-wise then what exactly are we basing it on? Being an NHL player doesn't necessarily translate into being a better coach or GM. Gretzky was a lousy coach. So again, not to say Briere shouldn't get a job here but I'd much rather he start off as an assistant GM or director of player development or so on and get a promotion when he has more experience inside the league.
  22. Louis Debrusk is a middle 6 left winger. He has scored 27 goals once before but he has been below average in both traditional and advanced stats the past two years. At present, he's a bit of a reclamation project and at 3.6M a year with RFA status after this year, that's a decent chunk of change to be paying a winger who has question marks when we're not in a position to win. We don't really need wingers to be honest. If Boston wanted to swap him straight up for Mike Hoffman, I'd do that in a heartbeat. Otherwise, not sure where he fits in and isn't an area of need for us right now.
  23. Ducharme today stated that Caufield playing on the PP tomorrow would depend on whether players like Kulak, Perreault, or Wideman are back in the line-up. Most in the media believe that implies CC will be sent back to Laval when other players are healthy.
  24. I don't think anyone (at least no one I know of) believed Kotkaniemi at 6M would be worth the money this year. But everyone including Kotkaniemi knows he's being overpaid this year because it was necessary from Carolina's part to be able to make the offersheet strong enough to force Mtl not to match. I'd be surprised if he makes 6M again next year, and Carolina controls his rights as an RFA. The only way he makes 6M next year is if he has a huge year and scores 25-30 goals this season, in which case he would be worth the 6M anyways. So let's see what JK's next contract looks like. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a 2-year deal for 3.5-4M AAV or a longer-term deal for 4.5-5.5M AAV. Either way, that 6M is going to be diluted down. If Carolina ends up getting JK for the next 5-7 years and pays an AAV of around 5-5.5M over that time, I still think that ends up being better than the money we're paying someone like Dvorak, who is already older and with a lower ceiling.
  25. Definitely going to be hard for him to maintain that shooting percentage, but also conceivable he benefits from more ice time and better linemates if he plays well. At present, he's getting ice time comparable to what Matthieu Perreault was getting here, so as you said, mostly being treated as a 4th line player. He has had a few games in the top 6 but he's been moved around their line-up a lot and he has a lot of players ahead of him on the depth chart. At present, he'll likely need to hope for an injury ahead of him to be consistently moved up. If we look at his production though, he's doing far better per ice time than the likes of Dvorak, Gallagher, Caufield, Evans, and Armia and he's also ahead of guys like Lehkonen, Hoffman, and Anderson. And if we want to look at advanced stats, the numbers actually suggest he might sustain his level of play outside of his personal shooting percentage. His PDO is almost bang on 1.0, and Carolina's shooting percentage with him on at 5v5 is under 9%. So it suggests that even though he is personally finishing, his linemates are not, and if he gets to play with better linemates and/or his linemates have better luck/finishing, then his assist totals will potentially shoot up. Also noteworthy that he has the best Corsi on the team among regular players on the Canes, so he's been a strong possession player and that usually translates into long-term success as well.
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