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Noob616

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Posts posted by Noob616

  1. 20 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

    Which might make him more tradeable in terms of someone taking his contract, but it probably doesn't help his trade value in terms of return and it certainly doesn't help our cap situation. For the Habs, the issue has never been absolute salary, it's what the cap hit is, and in this case, I find a 7+M cap hit hard to swallow if Weber is 36 or 38 down the line and no better than what Chara is now. No one knows for sure how he'll age, but the odds are against him being a top pairing guy.

    It would help his trade value a ton because everyone knows by looking at how that deal is structured that Weber will come down with some bizzare skin condition or a recurring knee injury that suddenly renders him unable to play in September 2023 when his salary drops to 1M. There's no way he plays out those 1M years, and any team trading for him would be doing it understanding they're getting the remainder of this year and three more years at a 7.8M cap hit. 

    I think we (by "we" I mean online hockey nerds) seriously underrate the return he'd fetch, GMs and coaches absolutely love this guy and if he were a UFA this summer teams would have been lining up to sign him for 4 years at 7.8M, which is the contract he's actually on in all practicality because we've seen this 1M LTIR stuff a million times. Tyler Myers just got 5 years at 6M, Justin Faulk 7 years at 6.5M, GM's go way over the top to bring in RHD and with Weber you're getting a guy with what borders on a cult of personality and league-wide worship. An NHL GM is going to look at Shea Weber solving all their defensive issues and then squeal with delight when they see he's on pace for 25 goals and 67 points.

  2. 4 minutes ago, maas_art said:

    This is a concern for sure. 

    That's really the main thing for me, with how good he was in Nov-Jan last year I was willing to accept that he was fatigued in Feb-Apr when he slowed down last year. I figured with the full off-season he'd be back in shape and put together a season closer to that Nov-Jan level (although I didn't expect him to be that good all year) and by all accounts he's back in tip top shape. 

    All summer I was pretty bullish on his outlook for the next few seasons but I'm definitely worried now. 

  3. So uh. Anyone else a bit concered? After the much ballyhooed "full summer of training" that would restore the man mountain to his former glory he looks a lot closer to last April than last November. That combined with taking rest days 2 games into the season has me a bit worried there's some kind of nagging injury going on. 

  4. 6 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

    So you go back and if we forget Weber, I think you absolutely have to wonder what could have been if we had done a better job on the Subban trade. It's not even about Subban being here any more, but there was talk before the Weber trade that the Oilers had discussed giving us Draisaitl and other pieces for Subban. So imagine if we had acquired Draisaitl, a 1st rounder, and a D man for Subban... at the time, that wouldn't have been that far-fetched at all.

    Or even Hall, I would be incredibly shocked if Hall for Subban wasn't on the table at the time from the Oilers' perspective. Hard to do revisionist history becrause maybe then Pacioretty isn't traded (or at least not for the same package) and that trade was a grand slam, but imagine if the top line was something like Hall - Domi - Gallagher etc. Drouin trade probably doesn't happen either if they got Hall back for Subban.

  5. 55 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

    With the ability to look back a few years, I actually feel the same way I did when the trade was made. My feeling now, as it was then, is that Weber is still very much a capable player but he's inferior to Subban in most facets of the game. I don't think the sentiment was that people thought Weber was bad, I think people worried about the following:

    I'm just saying I thought he was going to be a more of 2nd pair guy really fall off pretty quickly after the trade. I guess you could argue he has already fallen off a lot since he was once a top 5 dman on the planet and now he's probably somewhere in the ~40s or whatever. I definitely underrated his overall effectiveness and I was too pessimistic about his aging curve (granted I think Habs fans overall are way too optimistic and think he's not going to decline at all until 40+ which I highly doubt). 

    Agree with everything else, Weber's been basically the best case scenario as far as my projection from the time of the trade but I still think it was such a big mistake for the reasons you outlined. It just makes for such an awkward aging curve for the team, if you squint your eyes enough you could talk yourself into buying Kotkaniemi/Suzuki/Domi/Gallagher/Caufield as a legit core with a puncher's chance at a cup in front of Price but it's just so awkward to be "rebuilding" with Weber/Petry/Price all into their 30s. 

    Even if they somehow "needed" to trade PK it should have been for futures for a real rebuild (to do what the Rangers are doing when the franchise goalie is 29 instead of 39). Agree on Chiarot too, I think he's a significant downgrade on Kulak and the knock-on effects of him taking Kulak's minutes will be significant as the season goes on. 

  6. I guess since we're back at the trade I'll say I definitely was far too negative on him at the time of the trade and he's been a lot better than I expected. IMO he's still a legitimate top pair (but not an elite #1 in that I think he's likely outside the top 30 dmen at this stage), but I definitely did not expect him to still be a capable top pair guy at 34. More modern xG models are a lot more bullish on him than the corsi-based ones of the past and he does legitimately have a talent for reducing shot quality against, that plus his great offensive skill keeps him as a solid top pair guy at this stage who seems to be aging relatively well for a guy his size with a lot of city miles. 

    That being said I maintain it was a huge mistake because of the overall direction of the team. It was supposed to be a "win now" moonshot and the team's won two playoff games while Nashville went on to a 6 game finals run which they could easily have won if Johansen didn't get hurt. That's not to say I really blame Weber because it's not his fault the GM let Markov and Radulov walk with no real replacement, or went out and signed Chiarot to be Alzner 2.0, etc., but if the team is middling and on the bubble with a 34 year old 1D it was probalby not the wisest move to get 4 years older at a key position with a trade that didn't need to be made.

    At the end of the day the Weber trade was and remains a massive opportunity cost. Weber himself has been better than I expected (minus the injury year), but it's hard not to wonder about what could have been if the Habs decided to pull the chute and truly rebuild, if Pacioretty fetched Tatar and Suzuki I can't help but wonder what a prime Subban would have returned in a trade. Elephant in the room being the Taylor Hall trade.

  7. On 9/11/2019 at 9:14 PM, BigTed3 said:

    Sure. But how much money Carolina spends is a variable. They can to some degree control that by adding new investors for example or by Dundon just spending more money (the guy has deep pockets and just chooses to spend less)... the Habs can do zippo about taxes and weather.

    That's true but there's always a limit and the Hurricanes are notoriously thrifty on their front office while the Canadiens have unlimited money to chase market efficiencies that way (even though they choose not to). The Hurricanes will never have the kind of unlimited purse the Canadiens do unless an owner decides to burn through his personal fortune on a vanity project, the Canadiens, Leafs, and Rangers are the only teams that genuinely make more money for their ownership than putting that money in their existing business would. That's a huge advantage in a league like the NHL where even the most recent cup champions are known to be a budget team. 

    On 9/11/2019 at 9:22 PM, campabee82 said:

    I think he is a canes fan in our forum or worse a Leafs fan LOL. I should clarify I meant Noob616 not BigTed.

    No I am just incredibly sick of the crying about taxes, the Leafs and Rangers have high taxes and have no trouble attracting UFAs. The Jets have high taxes and the worst weather in the league and they just got Morrissey at a discount. The Panthers have no taxes and they had to pay Bobrovsky as much as Price to sign there. The Stars have no taxes and they paid Seguin 9.85 which is just in proportion to Tavares at 11M since he's not as good. I just don't really see this pile of discount value deals that low/no tax teams are ostensibly getting. There's 3 hockey franchises on the planet where money is truly no object and they're the Leafs, Rangers, and Canadiens. The other two have just signed franchise players for big money in consecutive off seasons while we signed Alzner and Chiarot and complain about taxes. 

    Like I said the last time this came up, it's a real Pandora's box and I think Habs fans should be careful what they wish for. The Habs run their own private European and North American draft combines, they bankroll a new AHL team and are reportedly opening an ECHL team in Trois-Rivieres, they paid Price almost entirely in signing bonuses, fired Therrien and added a 25M coach contract at the drop of a hat, hired two highly touted young coaches in Bouchard/Ducharme for presumably a fair bit of money. Do we think the Canadiens will still be allowed to have a private draft combine if the league starts adjusting for taxes? Do we think a tax adjusted cap would be a good thing if it means the Leafs and Rangers also get an additional 10M to spend? Will the Canadiens be able to spend 25M to bring in a top 5 coach in the league if we start tax adjusting player salaries? 

  8. Luv 2 be a Canadiens fan whining about the financial advantages the CAROLINA HURRICANES enjoy. 

    Did we all forget that 9 weeks ago the Canadiens tried to poach their franchise player because the Habs are one of three hockey franchises on earth with unlimited money and the Hurricanes are historically a budget team? 

  9. I really am not sure which better LD people are expecting the Habs to land. There's not really that many LD out there who are better than Gardiner, and even fewer who are plausible trade targets. At some point the perfect can't be the enemy of the good. This is now the 3rd year since Markov left with no replacement and here was a perfect fit available for just cash and we're going into the season with the same defence as last year except for a worse and more expensive version of Benn. 

  10.  
     
     
     
    1 minute ago, arpem-can said:

    this 4 yr deal is contingent on how his chronic back holds up 

    I wouldn't worry about this very much. If his back is bad enough he can't play he goes on LTIR and comes off the cap. If his back injury makes him less effective but still able to play 4M is a perfectly fine amount of money for a #4-5 PP specialist which is basically his floor. 

  11. Yeah the Rangers stuff is infuriating. Last two seasons they recognized they weren't good enough and did a full on scorched earth rebuild while we stumbled into a 3rd pick by accident and then tried to contend and missed again. Meanwhile, they added an elite prospect, Panarin who would be the best Habs skater since LaFleur, and Trouba who'd be our #1D.

    It's entirely possible the Rangers make the playoffs before us after a full scorched earth rebuild while we sputter around and overpay Alzner and Chiarot because our GM was terrified to give Markov 2 years because it might eat into the 30 trillion dollars of cap space we've had for 2 years. 

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