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Noob616

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Everything posted by Noob616

  1. Yes but what I'm saying is that side (federal taxes, endorsements, wealth management etc is) irrelevant because it can happen anywhere. The difference talked about is always about state taxes and there's no way to go below 0% state tax. IMO the front-loading stuff is relevant because there are only three franchises in this sport where money is absolutely no object and they're the Leafs, Rangers, and Canadiens and those teams can do the front-loading over and over and over again for players up and down the lineup like it's nothing. That 13M signing bonus for Aho came out of Dundon's pocket when for Geoff Molson it's a rounding error on Bell Centre hot dog sales. Carolina can bite the bullet on Aho but they can't do it indefinitely and they probably won't do it for say...Martin Necas if he becomes "just" a solid 2C but not a franchise cornerstone like Aho. Nashville can give out some signing bonuses to Duchene but they can't do anything like the Tavares deal where he's paid over 30M in the first calendar year. Nashville also isn't even a cap team, they traded Subban to make "space" for Duchene but they still have 5M in cap space, they could have traded Craig Smith instead and kept both but the actual money is still a concern for the Preds. Even Bobrovsky who just got a big Florida contract, he's only getting his contract slightly front-loaded compared to Price who gets back to back $13M signing bonuses and $30M total in the first 2 years. Exactly. Tavares left millions and a cushy San Jose lifestyle on the table to go to the Toronto pressure cooker because he wanted to go home and believed in what the Leafs were doing. Panarin just left a ton of money on the table to go to New York because he wants to play in a big market and presumably believes in the team when he could have gone to Florida and had the big coastal city with no taxes too. On balance the fact the Canadiens have unlimited money, no ownership issues, a great building, and by all accounts a nice lifestyle beyond the weather should more than make up for it. I think the questions should be directed at management and not taxes when in back to back offseasons the only other two franchises in this league with unlimited money and high taxes bagged elite free agents while we got Ben Chiarot and Nick Cousins. Historically this team hasn't struggled to attract UFAs, Alzner, Cammalleri, Gionta, Gill, Cole, Kovalev etc all signed here for market price, Pacioretty likely would have stayed for 7M, Petry stayed at market price, and Price basically got what's now the market value in the context of the Bobrovsky deal. I guess for me it's just annoying because the Habs are the 3rd richest franchise in hockey and I think that's a way bigger advantage than the Panthers not having state taxes. The Habs can afford to run their own European combine (and their own NA combine too) because if it produces one decent player (which last year was Romanov and I think this year was Nissen and Khisamutdinov) it's worth the upfront cost. They can afford to fire Therrien and pay him a total of $5M to sit at home and immediately bring in another coach for $5M a year, and employ an army of scouts. They could drop $7M like it's nothing to buyout Gomez. They paid 4M in cash to effectively buy Armia and a draft pick. They went out and paid Ducharme and Bouchard to join the team, paid for a Laval AHL team with a nice rink, are going to bankroll an ECHL franchise, etc. It's a be careful what you wish for thing because as much as the taxes annoy certain teams I'm sure smaller markets aren't thrilled that Tavares is getting half his money in the first two years and so on.
  2. You can't really do the same thing in Nashville or Vegas because there's no way to go below 0% income tax. There's no creative accounting Mark Stone can do to get the state of Nevada to pay him more money, while a good accountant could greatly reduce the amount Ontario would charge him and narrow the gap. Here's an article from Forbes about Stone and the "tax jackpot" he hit signing in Vegas. It works out to a whopping $71,250 a year. It's not nothing but we're talking about a league where guys negotiate contracts to line up with their jersey numbers. 71k is basically a rounding error or an extra day or two on LTIR. IMO that gap is just really exaggerated and only makes sense if we're purely multiplying out AAV by highest income tax rate. In terms of the real world scenarios the gap is nowhere near that large, and big money teams like Montreal can also pay every player in up front signing bonuses which allows them to invest it earlier and further narrow the gap. With the Stone example it's a 71k gap between the highest tax jurisdiction in the league and zero state taxes, that works out to a 0.74% difference. If we want to further complicate things they're playing in Canada and being paid in USD which comes with its own set of advantages for overall cost of living. I can certainly agree that it makes an impact but saying Montreal is playing with a 10M lower cap is just a real stretch to me and doesn't seem to be supported by the actual contracts guys are signing. I think Tampa and Nashville's unique COL and quality of life + team culture/contending status get conflated with "no tax discounts" (and I wouldn't even say those teams have a ton of "discount" contracts that weren't betting on a player who improved like Gallagher at 3.75). Vegas had to pay Stone 9.5, Stastny 6.5, and Pacioretty 7. Dallas just paid Pavelski 3x7M, and pay Benn 9.5 and Seguin 9.85. To me that Seguin number is basically proportional with 11M for Tavares in terms of the quality of player. Florida is paying Bobrovsky Carey Price money, and so on. Even Duchene, 8M only feels like a "discount" because we assumed he'd make insane money compared to Kevin Hayes, but compared to Tavares at 11M I wouldn't call 8M for a substantially inferior player a discount. I guess the argument would be that Montreal would have to pay those guys even more money but again, Tavares signing for 11M (and Bobrovsky making Carey Price money despite the Florida tax/weather advantages) kinda go against that idea IMO.
  3. The problem with all these ideas to "fix" the salary cap and let teams spend more to account for taxes and blah blah blah have a central problem in that they assume the salary cap was intended to create parity or competitive balance or something. It says it right in the name, it's designed to cap salaries and link salaries to revenues. The owners don't want a soft cap or else we'd already have one because there'd be absolutely no reason for the players to oppose a soft cap or any tax equalization cap space or whatever. Another thing is that we can't assume that multi millionaire pro athletes being paid millions of dollars just pay a percentage of their salary in taxes like us common plebs. They don't, they have all kinds of ways to write things off and set up their taxes in beneficial ways. They also pay the local tax rate on every road game so even players in Tampa don't get "tax free" salary, they pay state/provincial tax for every game not played in Florida, Dallas, or Nashville. I dunno, overall I just think it's sour grapes for Canadiens fans to complain about this stuff a week after our GM tried to poach another team's franchise player with an offer sheet designed to screw up their budget because the Canadiens can drop 21M in signing bonuses like it's nothing. The Habs are one of three franchises in this sport where money is truly no object (along with the Leafs and Rangers) and the fact we're the only one with nothing to show for it besides maybe Joel Armia is pretty disappointing.
  4. So what? Mete's probably not going to be a big point producer but that doesn't mean he's not a good defender. Defense with how the game is played today doesn't mean being strong in front of the net, and if he's paired with Weber he doesn't even need to do that anyway. Chiarot is certainly a better "defender" in terms of purely playing without the puck, but a player like Mete will be in those situations far less often so it doesn't matter if he's less effective purely defending without the puck. Byfuglien's possession numbers were better away from Chiarot, and the opposition got more shots from Chiarot's side of the ice than Byfuglien's.
  5. Yeah it's a disaster compared to Kulak. If Chiarot takes 2nd pair minutes from Kulak it's going to be a big downgrade.
  6. Really unhappy with this. Not an upgrade on Benn, and If he's in the top 4 it sucks because he's a huge downgrade on Kulak, if he's on the bottom pair it's too much money and term for a depth guy. Alzner 2.0 but at least they didn't go 5 years this team. Don't know why they didn't just offer this money to Benn for 2 years if the plan was Chiarot since Benn is better anyway.
  7. I am so happy they took Caufield
  8. I think if you get a 2nd pair guy for him you pull the trigger. I just don't think this team can afford to waste another year of Weber and Price's 30s waiting for a 24 year old in his 6th pro season to finally figure it out next year. It sucks given the price paid for him but I think Drouin's a guy to move on from. It all depends on the value available on the trade market which we can't know but I'm highly skeptical that something like a 5th overall pick is plausible. Selling low isn't ideal but at some point if this team is trying to compete then I think you've got to move on. He did have a good first half but at the end of the day he scores at the same rate as Byron and Lehkonen over a full season and both those guys had cold streaks too. The problem for Drouin is that he's solely an offensive player so when he's in a slump it's really difficult to keep giving him minutes that could otherwise go to Byron and Lehkonen who even if they aren't scroing are capable two way players. As for Domi I'm not criticizing him for his defensive play, he's just average to mediocre defensively which is totally fine given his role on the team. Danault and Kotkaniemi are both excellent defensive centers and Domi's defense is still adequate. My point was just that there's a big difference between being OK to mediocre defensively like Domi is IMO and being downright awful. I agree that 1st to 4th line system is outdated, especially in terms of the "two scoring lines, one checking line, one energy line" thing. The Habs first line is also its checking line with Danault and Gallagher taking the hardest matchups. The reason I bring it up is just that there's only so much ice time to go around and with the roster as constructed it's hard to find a place where Drouin fits since Byron and Lehkonen are arguably more effective players in aggregate with how this team plays and how the roster is deployed.
  9. In terms of the armchair GM-ing premise of the thread, what do we think we would do/should be done with Drouin at this point? It's just really hard to see a place he fits in the lineup as constructed. Hopefully he has a great start and makes this look like a dumb hot take but I'm not holding my breath. The Tatar - Danualt - Gallagher top line is far too effective to break up and putting Drouin on that line would severely hamper it defensively (and Tatar is a more productive 5v5 scorer anyway). Domi is already on the mediocre side defensively so I'm not sure that putting Drouin on his line is a great idea either. The third line is used as a regular line since Domi's gets easier matchups and Lehkonen is more effective than Drouin as a two way player with Kotkaniemi and Armia, and then you're into the fourth line which isn't where you want a 5.5M guy who's ostensibly a scoring threat. All things considered the best fit is probably on the 2nd line with Domi and Shaw but I still don't know if that's great. I'm skeptical that in aggregate you're better off with Drouin there than Byron over 82 games. The thing about Drouin is he actually doesn't score on a per minute basis anywhere near what you'd expect by the raw numbers, on a per minute basis his offensive production is almost exactly the same as Lehkonen or Byron. Plain and simply that's why he ended the season on the 4th line, if Lehkonen and Byron are scoring at the same rate as Drouin, why would you use the worst defensive forward on the team instead of Lehkonen/Byron who are capable defensively? Domi kinda shows the main issue, when you give a guy cupcake matchups and prime top 6 + PP1 minutes you expect them to score in bunches and drive offence like Domi did this season. But when Drouin gets that same deployment he puts up 50 ish points. In a vacuum 50 points is fine but when a guy needs all the PP1 time and tons of top 6 minutes with cupcake matchups to put up 50 points while being one of the worst defensive forwards in the league it's hard to take that overall package. That's the other part of it, you can get away with giving Domi tons of minutes to produce offence because he's simply mediocre defensively rather than actively bad defensively like Drouin. I dunno it's just hard to see a spot. Best option is probably to try and boost his value on Domi's line and pray for a PP1 resurgence to boost the counting stats and trade him since I'm sure his trade value is minimal right now.
  10. Yes? Subban has played against the other teams best lines literally his entire career and has been used as the shutdown guy in Nashville the entire time he's been there, even with Emelin last season. He had a down year but there's a big difference between "29 year old with some injuries who was elite the season before" and "33 year old coming off consecutive knee and foot surgeries who was never fast and was last elite 5 years ago".
  11. Noob616

    Weber

    One thing I'll say is people need to stop acting like he's actually going to play out the contract, it's completely juvenile. Functionally speaking Weber has 4 more years at 7.8M, if you believe he's going to play for a million bucks at 38 and won't suddenly come down with some back condition and go on LTIR I have a bridge to sell you.
  12. Drouin actually is what every dumb guy thinks the skill player on their favourite team is. What dumb Leafs fans say about Nylander etc etc is actually true about Drouin in terms of the scoring not making up for what you give up. He's a middle six winger at even strength and a good power play guy. He provides negative value when he isn't scoring because his defensive impact is negative and his possession impact is zilch. It isn't his fault, he had a significant body of work as a pro that suggested this was his value at the time of the trade and I don't think it's fair to dogpile on the player because management had dreams he would develop into a Marner/Gaudreau and traded a blue chip prospect for him. The biggest concern with Drouin is whether or not the team is realistic in what he provides. If they accept that he's a PP guy and a middle six winger at ES that needs to be heavily sheltered that's fine and at 5.5M that's not really a problem for the Habs to afford. It sucks in the context of the trade but that's a sunk cost and at face value Drouin at 5.5M is fine for a team that generally lacks flair and has the two way centers to insulate his defensive shortcomings. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on the PP since he's been a successful PP weapon in Tampa and Montreal. The problem is if the Habs keep holding on to this hope that he's going to live up to his draft hype and become a Gaudreau/Marner level star winger and if they fail to add forward talent to the roster in the hopes Drouin will develop into a star.
  13. I don't really care at all about the trade itself because they moved 10-15 spots back very late in the draft, just disappointing that it's going to mean an ostensibly "defensive" 4th line of coke machines that can't actually defend.
  14. This time two years ago this team dumped Andrighetto and traded for King, Ott, and Martinsen who were all out of the league within 6 months. Time is a flat circle.
  15. Meh, I'm not concerned. There's no rush and learning to be an NHL center is learning to be an NHL center. He's not being sheltered in terms of matchups and Julien trusts him to take a regular shift which is more than enough for a player to develop at this level. I was super cautiously optimistic about Kotkaniemi and I really thought he would have been best to stay in FInland or at least commit to being in Laval for an extended period but he's just learning so fast. Keep in mind that Kotkaniemi is the youngest player in the league and he's going to play this entire season younger than a guy like Auston Matthews was in his rookie year (Kotkaniemi won't turn 19 until June 2019, Matthews was 19 in September 2016 during his rookie year).
  16. I don't have a problem with how they're developing Kotkaniemi. He's the youngest player in the league and has never played anything even close to an NHL level schedule in terms of games, travel, physical grind, etc etc. and he's doing very well in the current role. THey're not really sheltering him either, just giving him a regular 3rd line shift + PP time.
  17. Yeah this was 100% unplanned. It's pretty clear that Plekanec was signed because the intention was to run Danault, Domi, Plekanec, and Peca as the four centers, but Kotkaniemi ended up being too good to cut and the team rightly chose to keep Peca around as the 4C instead of platooning Plekanec and Peca there. There's no way they expected this, Kotkaniemi is the youngest player in the league and was not expected to be an NHL regular this year. I also have a hard time believing even the most optimistic cheerleader in Habs management genuinely expected Domi to be this effective as a 2C. They signed him to play a middle six role in the event Kotkaniemi and/or Domi couldn't hack it at C, and when both guys cemented themselves as middle six centers they no longer needed him beyond occasional 4C play and at this point in his career Plekanec doesn't want to sit in the press box.
  18. Peca didn't touch it. Watch from 7:49 onwards, you can see Peca's stick never gets close to the puck when Ristolainen shoots.
  19. Yeah he's been much better than last year but only because last year was so bad. He's around league average right now or slightly below which just flat out isn't enough. That's not panic button levels yet because it's not crazy for top end talent to have slumps (eg. a legit #1C might score 3 points in 10 games) and it's only magnified because it's the start of the year, but I'm not exactly thrilled to be saying Price has been just OK.
  20. Domi because a short run as something impersonating a cromulent top 6 center has been a huge help for the team. I don't really buy he's a top 6 center in the long run but he's far better as a short term stopgap than Drouin and that's been a big help for the team.
  21. It's possible I guess but I don't see it. Outside of massive injury trouble I don't see any way the Habs finish ahead of Leafs/Bruins/Lightning for top 3 in the Atlantic and I think Florida is clearly a better team. There's a chance the Habs could make it as the 2nd wildcard in that case but I'm doubtful none of the Flyers/Caps/Blue Jackets/Pens/Canes/Devils finish in the other wild card spot.
  22. Tonight is a great example of the state of the Habs, Sens and Habs are in roughly the same position in terms of expectations and being younger teams that are hopefully on the rise, but at the end of the day the Sens can put Stone and Duchene on the ice at 3 on 3 and the Habs have...Joel Armia and Mike Reilly. There's not a single star player on the roster and Gallagher is the only legitimate first line forward, there's still a long way to go.
  23. Lol Deslauriers in and Hudon out. Ca sent la coupe! Agree with @Litany too. Things look alright because they're playing well out of the gate but it's not hard to imagine a team led by Tatar and Gallagher might run cold for stretches during the season. I'm happy to see they're giving guys like Peca and Kotkaniemi a shot and that Alzner is only playing due to injury, but this team has precisely zero star players and I think Weber's return at age 33 after consecutive foot/knee surgeries and missing a calendar year is going to be a lot rockier than expected.
  24. Absolutely no way we're getting either Aho or Dobson out of NYI with Scherbak and Alzner. The value is more like Josh Ho-Sang and Andrew Ladd for Scherbak and Alzner.
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