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Everything posted by Noob616

  1. Really like this trade. Habs basically paid 2.6M in cash to buy Armia, a 4th, and a 7th. Nothing huge but Armia isn't a trivial player and he fits in well in terms of age with the other core forwards. I know the response will be "why do we need another 3rd line winger" but Shaw's health is a big question mark and after Gallagher the Habs RW depth isn't really sparkling (although Byron is fine as a 2RW). I know people will be mad about a veteran blocking Scherbak but if he can't carve out a role and take a spot from Armia or Shaw in his 4th pro season after being over PPG in Laval you've got to wonder if he ever will.
  2. How do you guys rate his work since last summer? Overall I'm generally happy mostly because nothing bad has happened. I was nervous about a panic deal for ROR or too much money for Stastny but I'm glad no further mistakes were made and that the Habs signalled a bit of a retooling year by taking on Mason's dead money in exchange for picks and a useful player like Armia. I liked what they did at the draft, I don't love the Domi trade but I can see an argument for it, and I have no issue with any of the players they let walk besides Daniel Carr (but sounds like he got more money from the KHL). I like Evans and Vejdemo, I like the dice rolls on the two Czech defensemen and keeping Valiev around, and I like that all they did on July 1 was grab Plekanec again (who might be flipped again at the deadline) and sign some AHL ringers for Laval. Ouellet is a decent bet too, very cheap contract and he could very well be the best of the logjam of mediocre 3rd pair LD on the team. My vote is B, most of the moves I like or can learn to like, and there were no long-term mistakes made which is a plus in and of itself on a bad team. I like a lot of the swings they took in the draft and I think overall they made a lot of smart signings and low-risk bets to shore up some holes on the NHL and AHL rosters. Here's a list of all the moves made since the start of the 2017-18 season: Trades: LW - Max Domi for LW - Alex Galchenyuk, Domi extended 2Y/3.15M AAV LD - Simon Bourque for G- Steve Mason, RW - Joel Armia, 2019 4th, 2020 7th, Mason bought out (1.36M against cap for 2 seasons) Minor trades to move slightly down in the draft that I don't remember or care to look up. Drafted: R1 (3) C - Jesperi Kotkaniemi R2 (35) RW - Jesse Ylonen R2 (38) LD - Alexander Romanov R2 (56) C - Jacob Olofsson R3 (66) C - Cam Hillis R3 (71) LD - Jordan Harris R4 (97) C- Allan McShane R4 (123) LW - Jack Gorniak R5 (128) C/LW - Cole Fonstad R5 (133) C - Samuel Houde R7 (190) C - Brett Stapley Non-UFA Signings: (Italics for likely non-NHL players) G - Antti Niemi for 1Y/950K C - Lukas Vejdemo for 2Y/925k AAV LW- Nicolas Deslauriers for 2Y/950k AAV LW - Max Domi for 2Y/3.15M AAV C - Jake Evans for 2Y/1.3M AAV LD - David Sklenicka for 2Y/925k AAV LD - Michal Moravcik for 2Y/925k AAV LD - Rinat Valiev for 1Y/650k C - Hayden Verbeek for 3Y/776k AAV C - Will Bitten for 3Y/805k AAV C - Alexandre Alain for 3Y/753k AAV G - Charlie Lindgren for 3Y/750k AAV C - Jesperi Kotkaniemi for 3Y/3.45M AAV UFA Signings: (Italics for likely Laval players) C - Tomas Plekanec for 1Y/3.5M C - Matthew Peca for 2Y/1.3M AAV LD - Xavier Ouellet for 1Y/700k C - Michael Chaput for 2Y/650k LW - Kenny Agostino for 1Y/700k Lost as UFAs: (Italics for Laval only players) RW - Ales Hemsky F - Logan Shaw LW/RW - Daniel Carr RW - Jeremy Gregoire RW - Chris Terry LW - Adam Cracknell G - Zach Fucale LD - Thomas Parisi LW - Markus Eisenschmid RFAs Left to Sign: RW/C - Michael McCarron LW - Kerby Rychel RW - Joel Armia C - Phillip Danault C/LW - Jacob de la Rose
  3. That would be incredible. I feel like it's really unlikely though, if they're so afraid of moving Mike Hoffman within the division that they took a bath on the return for him I can't see Karlsson going within the division and I think the fanbase would be absolutely livid at moving Karlsson for Weber's age 33-37 seasons (I expect Weber to retire after the 2022-23 seasons when his salary drops to 1M for 3 years until 2026). But yeah the more I think about it the more I think that's the only way he gets moved (internal cap team) that will pay a premium for that 12M in real dollar savings. That's not a trivial amount of money to save off your payroll for a top pair guy if you have an internal cap. Off the top of my head the Islanders, Ducks, Coyotes, Blue Jackets, Devils, Hurricanes, Senators, Avalanche, Stars, Blues, and Panthers that seem to have an internal cap. There are some interesting pieces that could be part of a deal with some of those teams.
  4. Yep, @maas_art is right. Signing bonuses don't make any difference to cap hit. Cap hit is just total dollars owed divided by number of years. All that matters is Tavares signed a contract that owes him 77M over 7 years so his cap hit is 11M. Same with Price's deal, he just got a 13M signing bonus on July 1st and will only get 2M salary throughout the season, but his cap hit is still 10.5M because what matters is simply 84M/8Y. Weber's contract is similar, the first 6 years were heavy on signing bonus and he's now into the phase of just 6+6+6+6+3+1+1+1 in just salary. But what matters is it was a 110M deal over 14 years, so it's a 7.857M deal. McDavid has a similar deal too which is mostly SB, and lots of top players have significant portions of their contracts as signing bonus. There's a few reasons they do this signing bonus stuff. For the player it's just time value of money, 15.6M today is worth a lot more than 300k a week for the whole year, Tavares likely already has significant financial assets and investments and he can dump 15.6M into whatever financial assets he owns and start earning interest for the entire year instead of building up that money over the year. At a 10% interest rate (average return for the S&P 500), that 15.6M turns into 17.2M over the course of a year and down the line getting a head start on compound interest makes a big difference (plus only 50% of those capital gains are taxable in Canada so it's better than getting 17.2M in direct salary). Signing bonuses are also buyout-proof, a buyout pays out 2/3 of the salary portion but you have to fully pay out any signing bonuses so the player loses almost no money in a buyout if their contract is almost entirely signing bonus. They're also lockout-proof, Tavares just got 15.6M signing bonus this year, and will get 14.99M next July 1, and 11.09M the next July 1. So if there's a lockout in either 2019 or 2020 Tavares doesn't need to worry since he's already received most of his pay and will only be missing out on 900k in salary. For the teams, they generally would prefer not to do this stuff (because of the buyout/lockout proof stuff I just mentioned), but rich teams can use signing bonus stuff to bargain for high-end players and beat out less rich teams. Weber's contract is from Philadelphia sending him an offer sheet, and they used all this signing bonus stuff to make it as painful as possible for a small market team like Nashville to match. Imagine being Nashville and your #1 D just signed an offer sheet that owes him 13M the second he signs it and a whopping $80M in real dollars over the first 6 years of the contract. Philadelphia can handle that kind of money, and they hoped Nashville couldn't. Ultimately I think it was a big factor in the Subban trade, when they made the trade on June 26, 2016, they were two days away from having to pay Weber a 13M bonus and instead paid Subban at 4.5M bonus on July 1 (Subban's contract is also more biased towards salary instead of SB which helps Nashville by spreading out the cost). With Tavares it's not quite the same because Tampa/Boston/San Jose/Dallas could have all afforded to give him the same contract, but it's still a factor. The Leafs (and Habs/Rangers) are substantially richer than every other team in the league. LA/Boston/Detroit/Chicago/Pittsburgh/Washington etc are all rich teams but money is still a factor to some extent. The Habs/Leafs/Rangers can drop 15.6M on Tavares on one day before he plays a single game and not even bat an eye. All the other teams that were in on him could have afforded the contract and probably offered similar 77M+ deals for him, but I wonder if the Leafs had the most aggressive structure, this contract pays Tavares just over 44M in the first three years and I wonder if that was more aggressive than other teams.
  5. I think probably not because I think the Habs could get a better package from someone else. Leafs 1st rounders will be at best in the early 20s for the foreseeable future, and I don't think you can make up the difference in value by just throwing volume at a trade package. The Leafs prospect pool is pretty barren now with Marner and Nylander graduated and Dermott likely not someone they'll move since I don't think they'll extend Gardiner. It's basically Liljegren and Sandin and some decent middle tier guys after that and I don't think a reasonable package could be made around them. Kapanen maybe but I just don't see there being a realistic deal. Keep in mind that for the rest of his contract Weber is only owed 6M X 4Y, then 3M, then 1M X 3Y (which he won't actually play). I think if the Habs want to move him they could get a much better package from a team with an internal cap that would be willing to pay a premium to get a player like Weber and also save $12M in cash over the next 5 seasons. Depending on how Arizona progresses I wonder if they're an option, OEL-Weber / Chychrun-Hjalmarsson / Goligoski-Demers is a pretty fantastic top 6 and they have a lot of futures to make it work and they're kinda on the clock with Stepan, Raanta, and Hjalmarsson playing big roles. I could see that being really attractive, getting 5 years of Shea Weber for 27M in real dollars and 39M against the cap. They also took a huge swing on Hayton so you've got to wonder if they're considering moving on from Strome, I wonder if there's a deal to be made around Weber for Strome++.
  6. One of the funniest things that's ever happened to this team is binning the "No Excuses" sign after the foxhole speech lmao
  7. The only notable guy I'm somewhat hopeful for is De Haan. He's nothing particularly special or exciting but he's a perfectly cromulent top 4 defenseman on the left side and the Habs currently have *checks notes*, uh — zero of those. He'll get overpaid to some degree but overpaying a completely serviceable top 4 guy that fills your team's biggest need isn't a big deal. He's 27 so a 5 year deal isn't super concerning IMO, and De Haan actually is what Bergevin thought Alzner would be. If I had to predict what the Habs will do in free agency, it'll be Plekanec at 1X3M, Thomas Hickey 3X3.5M, a couple Froese/Holland type 1-year signings for around 1M each, and then an extension around 5X4M for Danault. I think there'll be a forward signing too, maybe Riley Nash or Tyler Bozak, hopefully Nash. I don't expect them to get Stastny, they'll be in on him but he'll end up back in Winnipeg I think.
  8. If you can sign a player like that you do it and figure it out later. I think they'd be fine and the odds of him going to Toronto are better than we'd all like to believe There's more than enough space to get Tavares at 12M and still retain their entire core. Firstly I know everyone hates bridge deals and it was dumb when they bridged Subban, but that's only because they bridged him and did nothing with it. The Subban bridge deal gave the Habs a 2 year window with one of the 4 best defensemen alive at 2.8M, and they did nothing with it. In contrast, Tampa bridged Kucherov for 4.7X3M, and are using that insane value contract to go all-in with McDonagh/Miller and will likely be making more moves. I think they could get Marner or Nylander or both for a similar deal short term. That gives them an absolutely bonkers 3 year window to go all-in with elite forwards on all 3 lines of your top 9. After that who knows where the cap will be, and they'd also have the option of dealing one of Marner/Nylander for a younger and more cost controlled players like the Hamilton for Hanifin/Lindholm deal we just saw. It probably means they lose Marleau, Gardiner, Hainsey, Martin, and possibly one of their other depth guys (Leivo/Brown/Hyman), but I'd trade those guys for Tavares in a second and in essence that's what they'd be doing by signing him. It's a gamble because they're hurting depth and weakening an already weak position at D, but if I'm the Leafs I'm willing to gamble on adding Tavares to that forward core and hoping that between a smart signing or two plus Dermott/Liljegren/Sandin/Durzi/Bergman/Holl you can shore up the defense. If they can churn out a few cheap RFAs to play depth roles (and the Marlies seem to have a lot of AAAA players) then I think it's more than worth taking the gamble.
  9. I think John Moore and/or Jack Johnson are going to be the targets. Stastny too but I think he'll just use the Habs to drive up the price like normal and end up with one of the contending teams that misses out on Tavares. After that, I think it'll be Bozak.
  10. I also don't really get why 8M would be such a crazy number for Pacioretty. Evander Kane just got 7X7M and Pacioretty has one more 30 goal season (5) than Kane has 20 goal seasons (4).
  11. Yeah I feel like this is going to happen. I haven't read any credible rumours but I just have this feeling they will, same feeling this time last year where I just knew they were going to sign Alzner.
  12. Athletic normally has a paywall but this one is open: https://theathletic.com/401952/2018/06/21/what-nhl-teams-considering-signing-slava-voynov-should-know/ I implore you to read it through. I don't care one iota if he would or would not be useful to the team. To summarize, he got in an argument with his wife at a party and punched her in the jaw. When they got home he choked her, screamed at her, smashed her head repeatedly into the floor. Then when she stood up he pushed her into the wall and cut her head open on the glass of a TV, and screamed at her while he continued kicking and hitting her for 20+ minutes before police arrived (because the screaming was loud enough to make neighbours fear for her safety), all in front of their 7 year old daughter. She was then taken to the hospital and nurses judged this was not the first time he was violent with her, and she needed stitches and medical treatment. It isn't a momentary lapse of judgment or one bad night. He beat her senseless for a half hour and her screams were loud enough to alert neighbours. It was also absolutely not a 1 night thing, the police report cites nurses saying she herself said it was not the first time and he's been aggressive with her in the past. That just isn't how spousal abuse works, a caring partner does not just have a bad day and decide suddenly to beat their partner senseless for a half hour, choke them, scream at them, kick them, punch them in the jaw, slam their head into the floor, or shove them into the wall and cut their head open. Get too drunk and say something hurtful? That's a one time mistake. Fail to plan ahead and drive drunk once? That's a one time mistake. Beating your wife for a half hour is the culmination of a long pattern of escalating abuse that starts small and steadily grows. He spent two months in jail and chose to go back to Russia instead of facing immigration court. In the past 3 years he's got to play on a stacked KHL team, been paid a reported ~4.5M/yr salary, and was the MVP of the Olympics this year. Second chances are for someone like Johnny Manziel who liked to party too much and didn't take his job seriously, or for Zack Kassian who had substance abuse and addiction issues, or for someone like Alex Radulov who skipped curfew to go out drinking in his early 20s. Not for a guy who put his wife in the hospital after beating her up and screaming at her loudly enough for the neighbours to call police, and was "punished" by continuing to play professional hockey for millions of dollars in a world-class city and continuing to get to play in the Olympics and internationally.
  13. I think Kotkaniemi is quite a lot better than that. Eller didn't score as much as Kotkaniemi in a men's league until his draft + 2 season when Eller was 20-21 years old. Kotkaniemi matched that scoring rate and played a top 6 role in the 4th best pro league in the world before he even turned 18. If we drafted another Lars Eller it's probably Olofsson at 56th in round 2. I agree on Zadina though, I think he's going to be a player. At least he didn't go to Ottawa or Arizona, it would have been painful to see Zadina on Galchenyuk's wing in Arizona
  14. Yeah I'm not really on the Pacioretty needs to go train but they need to make a decision. Going into the season with this looming over his head isn't great and I wonder if an extension is even possible at this point without even considering if it's wise. Just a weird situation and I feel like they've got to get something done this summer. I just hope for his sake he gets moved and signs somewhere long term and scores 35 a year with a proper center for the next 8 years. And that we don't get fleeced on the return.
  15. I don't really agree, almost every guy they took has a great record of scoring. Oloffson and Ylonen don't have eye popping stats but 27 points in 48 games and 22 points in 48 games in the Mestis and Allsvenskan as teenagers aren't exactly players that can't score IMO. Oloffson doesn't seem like a super high end offensive driver but to put up 22 points as a teen and play a big defensive role on a team that worked its way to the SHL is pretty impressive. Beyond that they got Hillis, McShane, and Fonstad who were all PPG players in the CHL, Stapley was over PPG in BCHL Jr. A, and Gorniak/Harris who scored in bunches in their high schools. The only guys they took without much scoring are Houde and Romanov.
  16. Overall I think they did pretty well. I don't really get the complaints about drafting small players, I am so tired of the Habs taking coke machines and I'm glad they swung for the fences on skill. Kotkaniemi is an inch shorter and the same weight as vaunted physical force Brady Tkachuk, and Olofsson is a big 6'2" two way center who played a tough game in the Allsvenskan as a 17 year old. I'm not concerned in the slightest that they took swings on smaller skill guys with other later picks. Ylonen isn't that small either, 6'0" 170 isn't a pro frame yet but he's not exactly Brian Gionta. Kotkaniemi was a good calculated risk IMO. I can't fault them for the pick no matter what happens, I admire the chutzpah to make the pick and if he ends up being 85-90% as talented as Zadina but plays a puck possession and distribution game at C I think we'll be pretty happy with it. I really like Ylonen, he was 15th on Pronman's board which excites me. Stats aren't eye popping but he's an insanely good skater and he played in a men's league so I hope there's a lot of room to grow. Romanov is a question mark. People who follow the MHL seem to like him but it just seems like quite a reach, I guess we'll see but I'm not a big fan of the pick. I know they probably felt comfortable to reach with tons of 2nd rounders but with Wilde/Woo/McBain/McLeod/Tychonik/Thomas/Durzi on the board it feels like a big gamble. Olofsson seems like a solid pick, big center who played in Allsvenskan at 17 (helped promote his team to SHL for next year). He was ranked around 35 by most lists so I'm happy to get him at 56. Seems like more of a middle 6 two way C but that's also a pretty big team need. Hillis seems good too, to me he seems like a guy who could end up on the wing as a pro and play a middle six role, and it's always a good sign to be taking one of the best players off a CHL team. Harris feels like a real "Timmins" pick, scored in bunches in high school and committed to Northeastern (NCAA), I don't think we'll see him for at least 3 years but the skill is intriguing. Feels like a reach as well but at 71 that's not a big deal and you can afford to swing on a guy with skill. McShane again feels like a guy you swing at, smallish and from what I've read not an amazing skater. Still, to get a PPG CHL guy that late is nice, and you've got to imagine that picking this many skilled C's in a draft will give you good odds of having a couple turn into real players. Gorniak another US High School guy, had crazy stats with his high school play, I guess we'll just have to see how he plays at Univ. of Wisconsin and see from there. Again, I have no issue with swinging on skill, I am so 100% done with the Habs taking "safe" picks because when you look at the success rates, taking a coke machine who can't score in the draft is actually incredibly risky. Fonstad feels like a real coup, to get a PPG player from the best league in the CHL at 128th is great. I'm mostly just going off Pronman's report for him but he sounds like a really skilled player to get so late and again, the Habs should just be rolling as many dice as they can on high end stars. I'd rather the Habs draft guys who have a top 6 ceiling than use picks on "safe" defensive 3rd liners who are a dime a dozen as free agents. Houde is whatever, two way Q center project, maybe could quibble with this pick but I'm not sure how much else was available. Stapley is a 7th rounder, small guy with great scoring in BC Jr. A, another guy where I think you just have to wait and see how his college season (Denver) goes and hope for a good trajectory. Overall I think they did well. I guess time will tell about that Romanov pick but outside that pick I don't think there's much I would quibble at too much. Wilde/Woo/McBain/McLeod/Tychonik/Thomas/Durzi are the sexier picks but most of them did fall quite a bit even after the Habs picked so perhaps there were some issues other teams had with those guys as well. The thing about a draft like this is you just have so many dice to roll, to me it feels like a smart play to draft as many guys like Hillis/McShane/Gorniak/Fonstad - smaller skill players with tons of upside and just hope that you get a player or two out of them. The Habs just desperately need any gamebreaking talent, and I think the best way to get it is to just continue rolling the dice on players with a strong track record of scoring and hope for the best. Romanov/Gorniak/Stapley/Harris feel like projects to me, but I think we might see Kotkaniemi and Oloffsson very soon and they will be really nice to have.
  17. I'm from Halifax and I've seen McIssac a few times and I'm honestly glad they stayed away at 35/38. I wouldn't say I have a great understanding of his game but he doesn't really scream top 4 guy to me. He's a great skater and has decent puck skills but I'm skeptical his game will translate to the pros, I don't really love his gap control and he often bails himself out on bad reads with strength and skating and I just don't know how much you can count on players just fixing things like gap control this far into their careers. I really like the Ylonen pick, not really defending the Romanov pick though. I wouldn't want McIssac but you've got to wonder if they should have just grabbed Wilde or Durzi or McLeod or McBain or whatever.
  18. I guess only thing is they've been good at scouting the OHL lately (Sergachev, Mete), so maybe they saw something about McLeod or Thomas they didn't like. I certainly would have preferred one of those guys or Wilde over Romanov but I do like the Ylonen pick a lot.
  19. Yeah I agree, Romanov plus the Harris pick (US High School) makes this feel very much like a Timmins draft. I just hope it's finding underrated players and not just galaxy brain overthinking things.
  20. Wonder if they might take Mascherin here, seems to be pretty close to NHL ready after he didn't sign with Florida. With Pacioretty getting traded another LW would be nice.
  21. Not thrilled with Romanov but I won't pretend I have any clue about these guys past the first handful of guys. Guess they felt comfortable reaching with 4 second round picks and the Habs really need a skilled Russian LD.
  22. He will be, Drouin, Danault, DLR are the only NHL centers on the roster right now and even if they sign Stastny or Tavares or something I think they still sign him as a bottom 6 center. I don't think Kotkaniemi changes things, it would be nice to have him play next year but he's still not even 18 so I doubt he makes the team out of camp.
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