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Noob616

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Everything posted by Noob616

  1. Veleno gone, wonder if Habs consider moving up to 31 and look at McLeod? Not sure. Detroit did really well to get Zadina and Veleno.
  2. I think it's more of a butterfly effect thing. If the Habs just took Zadina the draft plays out completely differently I think. If one team likes a guy at #15 better than the consensus #15, then the next team likes the #17 guy better than the #16, etc etc. It only takes a few of those to completely throw off the draft board.
  3. We all know that's not the kind of character problems that hockey people have an issue for. He got Masterton nominations last year.
  4. There's been rumours of a Pacioretty - O'Reilly swap which would be interesting.
  5. Yeah it feels like Price, Weber, Mete, Drouin, and Domi are probably the only guys I'd be confident are absolutely not moving.
  6. It 100% is a factor in a men's league. Kotkaniemi was barely 17 at the start of the year and still isn't 18 now. To be playing in a top 6 role in the 4th or 5th best professional league in the world against grown men is quite a feat for a 17 year old. The Finnish league isn't at the AHL level but it's actually quite close, consider that there's only 10 teams and most Finnish players below NHL level will just stay home. Rob Vollman compiles a list of leagues ranked by NHL equivalency, he uses historical data of players who transferred from the other leagues to the NHL and how their scoring changed. Finnish league points are roughly worth 0.452 NHL points, and for the AHL its 0.486. Considering how young Kotkaniemi is that's pretty impressive to be playing as a top 6 scorer in what's only a hair below AHL level. I don't think he's really known for being weak on his skates, most reports I've read mention how strong on the puck he is as one of his major strengths actually. He's 6'2 190 and has a lot of room to grow into that frame, and from some highlight videos you can see he does a great job driving the play and protecting the puck in a pro league, so I'd be pretty confident that will translate to the NHL. I wouldn't worry too much about him not playing C this year either. It's very rare for teenagers to play center in European leagues because the top division isn't intended to be a development league, so a 17 year old is unlikely to be good enough to play center at that level. If he goes another season or two in Finland without playing center I'd be concerned but his Finnish team has reportedly penciled him in at center for next year so he should be back there immediately. The Habs could also sign him to play 1C in the AHL if they felt his development was being hampered. The Habs need to take risks, most places project Veleno as an OK middle six center and Hayton is consistently ranked a lot lower than Kotkaniemi. With Poehling, Danault, Ikonen, Evans, and Vejdemo in the system the Habs should be OK at 2C and 3C so I think it's fine to swing for the fences.
  7. Yeah if the stat was just at 5v5 it would be somewhat useful over long sample sizes like multiple sizes. But with the SHG and EN goals included it's just full of so much garbage that completely ruins what the stat is ostensibly supposed to describe. When people rag on Galchenyuk or Kessel or Petry or Karlsson or whatever for being bad defensively because of +/- they aren't thinking about empty netters and shorthanded goals.
  8. Yes it does. Shorthanded goals count as a plus for the team that scores them. If you are on the PP and allow a SHG you get a minus, and scoring a SHG gets you a plus. "A player is awarded a "plus" each time he is on the ice when his Club scores an even-strength or shorthanded goal. He receives a "minus" if he is on the ice for an even-strength or shorthanded goal scored by the opposing Club. The difference in these numbers is considered the player's "plus-minus" statistic. http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26374 The empty net goal portion of it is also the more important part and why Galchenyuk and Petry had +/- ratings 25-35 below their career averages. Or why Alzner is -7 and his partner is -30.
  9. Galchenyuk isn't good defensively but him being -31 doesn't really mean anything, nor is it a very accurate picture of his net impact in goal differential. At 5v5 Galchenyuk was -14, not good but not exactly surprising or particularly concerning when you consider how bad the Habs goaltending was this year, and the remaining -17 is made up of garbage like empty net and shorthanded goals that nobody thinks about when they criticize a guy for being a bad two way player. Players like Galchenyuk are really hurt by the garbage in +/- and how it's calculated. Galchenyuk plays on the PP and not on the PK, that means his special teams minutes will exclusively give him extra minuses. Over the course of a full season your team is simply just going to give up a few shorties and Galchenyuk would be on the ice for a lot of those simply because he's always on the PP. Same with late game EN goals, Galchenyuk is always going to be on the ice when the Habs pull the goalie down a goal, and he's going to get a bunch of meaningless minuses simply for being on the ice for an EN goal against. In contrast, guys that play on the PK are only going to get a few free pluses from the handful of shorthanded goals they're on the ice for, and they'll get a bunch of meaningless pluses just from being on the ice when their team scores an EN goal. Good example is Alzner-Petry as the team's top D pair. Alzner finished -7, and Petry finished -30. Does that paint an accurate picture of their net impact to the team? Of course not. All it tells us is the Habs suck this year, Petry was the main defender on the PP, and would be one of the guys always used in a 6 on 5 situation to score a goal. In contrast, Alzner would never be on the PP, and his PK time doesn't give any minuses. Same with EN situations, he will never be on the ice when the Habs pull their own goalie to score late, but he'll be out defending against an empty net and get a bunch of pluses for EN goals that he has little to do with. This is why the worst +/- in the league is usually always a pretty solid defenseman on a bad team that gets used on the PP and in 6v5 situations.
  10. I love how passive-aggressive the people who make these kinds of tools/sites are. The default HERO chart compares Subban and Weber, SKATR now is Pastrnak and Nylander, and I think it used to be Kris Russel and Jason Demers or something lol.
  11. Just a strange deal. Domi is a fine player but he's worse than Galchenyuk and this just keeps happening. I don't think it's an insane fleecing or anything but the Habs just have to stop selling low on everyone all the time. Subban > Weber Eller > Shaw Sergachev > Drouin Galchenyuk > Domi In isolation each deal isn't a huge loss but collectively it's just consistently bleeding value and in aggregate it's a big problem.
  12. Tons of rumours about the Habs being interested in Kotkaniemi. Bob McKenzie on his podcast today saying that the draft has shifted in the minds of a lot of scouts, for most of the year it was a very clear Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk top 4, but at this point ratings are all over the place after Svechnikov and that it wouldn't be off the board or crazy to take Kotkaniemi #3. It would certainly be interesting. I don't really want the Habs to reach and take a guy who's ranked #10 with the #3 pick just because he's a center, but if he's plausibly the #3 or #4 player in the draft it might be worth it. Would really hurt to see Zadina in Ottawa though.
  13. Probably no unless it comes with a great sweetner. I do think just in a vacuum Lucic is the more valuable player and the cap space isn't super important since the Habs have so much and will be bad for a while, but I think it just digs the hole deeper and deeper. I'm at the point where I'm kinda just taking stock of what the next GM will have to take over and it's not pretty, adding Lucic would just make that an even deeper hole to climb out of.
  14. Yeah Bob McKenzie on TSN radio yesterday said his sense is the price will be around $6M and that the Habs are interested.
  15. This is why I want them to stay away, a short-term deal will never happen. He's 31 and realistically might be out of the NHL in 2 or 3 seasons, so I don't think he'd be willing to take the risk on a short-term deal with Quebec taxes considering his bankruptcy. I bet he ends up with a similar deal to Alzner with Smith, Kulikov, Russell, etc. as comparables. As a player he's fine, he's an OK low-end 2nd pair guy and he'd probably still be the best overall LD on the Habs but that's a pretty low bar, and he doesn't make any sense for the Habs.
  16. Latest 31 thoughts said some GMs think Bergevin is interested in trading down and grabbing one of the top defensemen. If that's Hughes I'm excited. Less exciting was his sense that Montreal could be a top destination for Jack Johnson. That would be a really poor signing, 2 years in a row getting the most overrated UFA defenseman available for far too much money. He also just reiterated that sign and trade seems like the most likely scenario for Pacioretty. It's really going to be a shame to see him go but it's time, a team this bad can't afford to be spending tons on high end but not elite players pushing 30 years old.
  17. I'm only like half joking, a part of me honestly believes that with a year or so of dedicated practice he could at least be a strong ECHL/AHL level player lol. Dude an athletic god. He's Zdeno Chara height and built like an NFL defensive lineman with Gaudreau's agility. It's bonkers.
  18. Cavaliers lost and LeBron reportedly wants out. What are the odds the Habs could sign him as a 1C?
  19. Best part is the quotes from Alzner last year about coming to Montreal to have a better shot at the cup. Oops.
  20. I think I read Carolina and the Islanders are both interested in bringing him in to do a 1A 1B type situation (although for the Islanders I think he just becomes their main starter).
  21. Yes in a purely hypothetical sense. In reality no because I don't have much connection with the Vegas players and I already find my enjoyment of watching the Habs is lessened without Markov/Subban who are guys that I felt were just "Habs" through and through. Right now the team feels like a squad of anonymous mercenaries plus Price, Galchenyuk, and Gallagher who are the only players that truly feel like "Habs" right now IMO. I think Vegas is in a better spot than the Habs, their core is pretty solid, I don't think it's incredible and they're going to lose one of Neal or Perron but I think the Marchessault/Smith/Karlsson/Theodore/Schmidt core is pretty interesting and a good foundation to build on. I don't think those guys are better than Price/Weber but they also aren't on monster contracts on the back 9 of their career. Their prospect pool is also a lot better, Glass, Suzuki, and Brannstrom are all significantly better than any Habs prospect, we'd definitely hope Zadina's better than those three (and I think he will be), but they have three very solid blue chip prospects and the Habs will be lucky to have 1.
  22. Remember at the time of the Subban and Eller trades the justification was "some players get you to the playoffs, some players get you through the playoffs?" Hmm.
  23. Yeah I wouldn't put a ton of value on the physical tests at the combine, they're all teenagers and those physical tools will change a lot by the time most of those players are pros at age 22+. Also as @maas_art said, hockey depends a lot on mental skills/vision etc and raw physical tools are usually not enough at the NHL level. Andrei Kostistyn was strong as an ox with good skating, great puck skills, and an excellent shot, but those tools aren't enough without high end hockey sense. Tom Brady's combine results are a good example. look at that guy giggling at 1:05. It would have been difficult to watch him in 2000 and come away from that combine expecting he would ever make it, let alone become possibly the greatest quarterback to play the game.
  24. Pleasantly surprised, it sounded like he was going to the KHL.
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