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Everything posted by BeanCountingHab

  1. Seeing as we're officially down to a 23 man roster and he's still around, he can probably make the jump to the Players section
  2. Nice, I didn't realize that. Between him and DD we should be set!
  3. Saw that one. The guys from EOTP who attended Habs rookie camp also had nothing but great things to say about him. There's always a question of transitioning your game to the NHL but he's a pretty exciting prospect.
  4. Even if he's hurt, put him on the 4th line and let him deflect pucks in on the PP (which may end up being the plan tonight). He's probably too good to scratch outright unless he's really hurt bad.
  5. Well, if all he's going to do is lead team in goals, we may as well give someone else a chance. I get it, he cruises around, he's a streaky player, but he always dangerous out there, and at the end of the day he's got 5 goals for us through 11 playoff games.
  6. That's what's funny about these style players. We'll still be waiting for Vanek to "start producing" and the realize he's leading the team in playoff scoring.
  7. He's not Pacioretty though, he doesn't drive the play to the same extent. Anyway, he is what he is so I'm not piling on the critisism; but it's probably worth taking into consideration before deciding whether to offer him an 8 year deal for $60M or something.
  8. I commented there, but just wanted to add here that you did a great job, and also recommend anyone with an interest in the relationship between PDO, possession, and results check this out. I'm wondering if there will ever come a time where we can come up with a certain "base" or "normalized" PDO for each team besides assuming they will always regress to 100. I'm thinking maybe something that looks at each player's 3 year rolling average of shooting %, shot volume/60, and 5 on 5 average TOI. And for goalies, a 3 year rolling save % and average games played per season. You'd then come up with an expected shooting perecentage and save percentage for your team, and voila: base or expected PDO. One issue I forsee with this would be not enough historical data for rookies or sophmores (maybe the solution would be using a league average number).
  9. I thought games 3 and 4 he looked meh as well, but this game was decidedly different. Impossible to say, but I'll be watching him closely again. I think maybe groin, he seems to be afraid to take full strides. Anyone who's not a scratch is always "fine" during the playoffs until they're eliminated and you find out half the team was injured.
  10. He has to be sick or injured or something. There were way too many shifts where he he pulled himself off not even 20 seconds into it after a few strides. I doubt we'll know anything until after the playoffs (or possibly if he gets scratched) but something's not right IMHO.
  11. Re-reading your original post now, I noticed you said you can't find a game by game breakdown for PDO. Extra skater does have this for each team, they just don't do the cumulative calculation for you. If you're willing to you excel (as suggested in the post above) you can probably get there. This would give you the data you need to make it happen: http://www.extraskater.com/team/montreal-canadiens/2013/gamelog
  12. I can't think of anything that's going to give you that cumulative amount at specific points in time. Game by game obviously gives you shooting percentage + save percentage but then it becomes absolutely insane to add up all those games for each team. I take it you've tried extraskater, have you looked at behind the net?
  13. I doubt Vanek has any reason to dislike Therrien, so I don't see that as a deterent to him signing here.
  14. You know what stat I'd love to see tracked would be what I'll call Zone Time. Basically, time in the offensive zone and time in the defensive zone. Neutral zone time would be ignored. You would then break it down into a percentage between the two teams. This would all be at even-strength to make it useful. I'd keep it simple for tracking purposes and to remove any bias, and simply use the actual location of the puck in a given and how long it's there. To get what I mean, picture a couple guys with a stop watch each responsible for one team's offensive zone. When the puck enters the zone, he starts the clock, when he leaves the zone he stops it. Alternatively it's probably even easier/more accurate with a recording of the game on a computer afterwards. You'd then have something like: MTL: 62.5% zone time TOR: 37.5% zone time Which could mean the puck was in Toronto's end (at even strength) for 25 minutes and Montreal's end for 15 minutes (remainder in the neutral zone and/or special teams). It's not perfect but the idea would be to get another measure for possession to use in conjection with something like Fenwick. My gut says you'd see a pretty high correlation with the top teams and positive Zone Time. I think it'd be a pretty accessible stat for the non-fancy stat crowd as well.
  15. I think there's a 99% chance Vanek goes to July 1st because he's been pretty adament that's what he wants to do. After that though, I'm sure we'd be pretty high on his list if we have a decent playoff run.
  16. There are shades of the way Therrien manages Murray and the way Eakins manages Fraser. When you look at the easy zone starts Murray gets, Therrien seems to know he isn't very good. But the old school mentality he has makes him believe he needs that size and toughness in the line up regardless. That's why I was and am really rooting for Tinordi, but because I think the only the way Murray is permanently out of the rotation is if someone else can bring those things that Therrien perceives to be really important. As far as your philosophy on the coach's point of view, I really don't think that's the case here (ie: needing to play Murray to appease the GM who brought him in). If anything, the 'tough' guys brought in seems to have been done for Therrien given how much he values them, while a skill guy like Briere was massively under-utilized for most of the year despite being one of the most productive forwards on the team for the ice time he was given.
  17. Not quite sure where else to post this, but it's a pretty good read by Tyler Dellow. The crux of the article is skill vs toughness and it has some interesting, candid quotes from Dallas Eakins who sounds like a guy grappling with the fact he may be in the Matrix. http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6884
  18. Yup, he's not going to win any defensive awards any time soon but his offensive game is very multi-dementional. Really strong on the puck (how many times do you see Kronwall get knocked down like that?), great vision and passing, can score with a shot, a deflection, or by using his hands to grind one out in front of the net.
  19. Faith is probably too strong a word, but he's shown sporadic ability in the past to manage zone starts well. I feel like that's more likely than that line getting broken up.
  20. Ya, the two way ability of that line is definitely a concern. If we're really determined to keep them together we need to go really heavy "Vignault with Sedins" style o-zone starts, like 75-80%+ ozone starts for that line.
  21. No hat trick, that was a great snipe though!
  22. Probably Briere. Maybe Pominville or Afinogenov? They had a great offense that year, took a huge hit after Briere and Drury left.
  23. This is a great discussion. I'm extremely torn on this. I feel like I can do 7 years but I don't know how I feel about 8. 8 x $8M is pretty hard for me to stomach, but the more I think on it, I think Roy's right that it takes 8 to get it done.
  24. Bah, the stupid site timed out and ruined my original reply. Here is a cole's notes version: First off, all great points, and you could very well be right; there's a good chance it does take 8 years to get him here. Maybe even with 8 years on the table he decides to move on. You're also right, the old prime/peak used to be 28-33 or so but it's definitely earlier now. I guess to explain myself better, I don't think players are peaking or hitting their prime later (I agree it's happening earlier), but I think the decline is becoming a more gradual slope for certain types of players: offensively skilled guys who don't play/rely on an overly punishing style and don't have much injury history). I really don't have a ton to back that up. I was just reading an article about a week old that showed a pretty sharp decline in players' offensive output through their 30s, but there was a follow up that looked specifically at the more offensively talented group (I think the paramater was 0.7PPG players), and production from 30-34 was something like 85% or 90% on average of there production from 25-29. It's a scary proposition signing any player to 7-8 years at 30, but depending on the dollar about I think he's a decent candidate to take the risk. Very consistent scorer, nice upside and very skilled, no significant injury history. P.S. I hope I didn't come off as pompous with the age breakdown, I just think given the type of decline were talking about one or two extra years can be pretty important.
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