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About powerplay2009

  • Birthday 02/07/1994

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    Red Wings Country :(

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  1. Having watched his game I would have guessed that he had 9 or 10 shots in his last 3 games. Interesting. His shot attempt numbers don't look bad at all, which tells me he's letting his linemates do the shooting more than he does.
  2. I was skeptical of the move to put him on waivers, and it looks like MB may have gone from a bad situation with Bourque to worse. We can send him down, but it won't save anything significant and we have cap space already. We could have traded him and retained some salary, but there is at this point a 0.0000001% chance he gets traded in the next year and a half. Can we buy him out mid-season? That might be the best move if MB wants him gone, but I honestly think this team is better off with Bourque than without him (as a depth player like Moen), and like I said we aren't crunched by the cap, so what's the point? I honestly don't think he was that bad, but I suppose that's what happens when you go on a hot streak during the playoffs in the middle of your decline. If he had 3 or 4 goals playing with Eller, would things be different? The narrative while they were together was that Eller was snakebitten and Bourque was apathetic, but I have seen no tangible evidence that was the case. At the end of the day though, if Bourque is a difference between us winning and losing games, we've got bigger issues to deal with anyway. Somebody (maybe DLR, Bowman, or Andrighetto) showing lots of promise in Hamilton maybe?
  3. I've been wondering about something, and I'm curious to read other opinions on this: If the NHL were to eliminate fighting this upcoming offseason, would Prust have an NHL job one year from now? Why or why not?
  4. Here's my theory on PDO. Make sure to give it a read if you're into this kind of stuff, and don't forget to drop a comment if you've got something to add! link
  5. Greatest player, captain, and man to don the Habs sweater in my lifetime. No doubt. If ever there were a jersey to retire based on more than on-ice performance, it would be #11.
  6. I think I found a boundary inside which PDO regression doesn't exist, and outside of which regression would be expected to occur. That point seems to be +/- 1.3. So if a team has a PDO that is higher than 101.3 or lower than 98.7, expect something is up. If they are inside that boundary, then there is a pretty good chance that team has a higher shooting/saving percentage than normal due to being talented. On edit: I'll write my theory as to why in more detail next week. Hopefully early next week.
  7. Has anyone read anything interesting on special teams and fancy stats? That seems to be a huge hole in our understanding of the game statistically right now. Special teams are pretty much ignored and I can't figure out why. I might start working on seeing what predicts special teams performance once I get time in a few weeks.
  8. For a lot of teams, especially sure playoff teams like the California powers, $$$ > 2 points. Their team will succeed just fine in the other 81 games, but outdoor games, overexploited as they are, still generate crazy amounts of revenue.
  9. Appearing not to care and actually not caring are two different things.
  10. But has he actually been that bad? I just never got the big deal with how he was playing poorly. He scored as many goals as Max while he was here (only had 1 less assist too), but only one of those players "didn't care". I know that Max was helpful in other ways, but I just don't get the big deal. We could have gotten a goal or 2 more from any player and the series would be different. Take out game 5, and basically none of the players on this team stepped up except for Tokarski. But only 1 of them gets throttled by fans for not caring.
  11. He's leading the team in playoff goals. Not sure how much you could want from a guy like him. Yeah, I'll admit he looks lazy. But looking lazy and being lazy are 2 different things.
  12. Here's my next post to EOTP. This one is on special teams. Follow-up to come, hopefully by this weekend. (Link)
  13. Thanks! I originally tackled PDO as part of projecting standings using nothing but fancy stats, and I wasn't really satisfied with the knowledge that was out there in the internet, so I just really started to compile as much data as I could and look at it some more, and what I found is that, while PDO is helpful, it's not nearly as much of a factor as it's made out to be. I mean, think about it. A lot of people will say that Colorado lucked into having the season that they did, and PDO definitely supports it. But Colorado fans will argue they have a goalie with world-class potential who is just starting to put it all together, and top-end forward talent that very few teams around the league can match, so of course they have high shooting and saving percentages. On top of that, Roy puts them in a position to make their own luck, like by pulling the goalie early (or on time when he's supposed to be pulled, as a lot of stats studies suggest). Are they wrong? I'm honestly not so sure, because the only counterargument to that is "well, you had a really high PDO so you must be lucky". Is that wrong? Well, I think just pointing to a number that's greater than 100 and supposing therefore unsustainable without looking further into it is pretty foolish. I looked at each team's regression to the mean for 5v5 PDO, and it's drastically overstated. Yes, it happens, but it's pretty slight after about the 40-game mark. Meanwhile, we have teams like Toronto, Anaheim, and New Jersey who have had pretty "extreme" PDO values for a sample size that now exceeds 100 games. To say that only luck can explain that, to me, is a really tough sell. I'm not going to stand on a soapbox and say everything we know about PDO is wrong, but I will sit here and explain why I think the general knowledge on PDO is probably different from reality, and possibly by a significant margin. We just don't know that much about it. So I want to investigate it more still, but of course I don't have the time. I really like this idea. I'll probably play around with it in the fall if nobody else has by then, but I think you're sort of layout for the general formula is a really good starting point. A few more things to consider would be coaching and player changes, and then trying to find a way to integrate free agency or trades to get updated values, although for most players the difference I imagine would be pretty minor. And as a final note, I'm in the process of making another fanpost (pretty lengthy, but hopefully it's because the explanations are better and things are more clear this time) about special teams trends and performances. I don't dwell on fancystats too much in this one, though I will make the argument that it's time we try to use (or create) fancystats to better understand special teams performance, because I perceive that as a pretty big hole in our understanding. There are also some interesting statistical phenomena that I can't explain, so I'm excited to get that out there and see if there is somebody who can.
  14. Player goes on a hot streak, fans want management to move mountains to keep him. Same player goes on a cold streak and all of a sudden, he's treated like we would've won the series in 5 if it weren't for him. This is why we can't have nice things. For another example, see Price, Carey.
  15. He needs to get going, but I honestly don't think he's been lazy. He's a guy that prefers to slow the game down a little and be a step ahead. Just like Carey. When he's on, people gush because he makes it look easy, but when he's not, I can see how he looks lazy. But looking lazy and being lazy are totally different things.
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