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Everything posted by maas_art

  1. My feeling too. Obviously there's info we dont know about but just based on what we do know, not matching means they likely dont think he'll live up to that contract even in the next 2-3 years. There hasnt been a single report that Bergevin was shopping or offering JK. Every indication is that Carolina called him & asked. Every player gets phone calls - im sure edmonton has had offers for McDavid even, but that doesnt mean they've ever shopped him. I think the team was fine with keeping JK but not when the price just obliterated our salary cap structure. We talked at length about how we were both flip flopping. To be honest, the last 2 days before the deadline I actually felt like we should let him walk. Ive accepted it too & I am ok with it. Haha. same. Im not even gonna finish the drawing of him now!! This. I think with Suzuki and Dvorak we have to very nice pieces. Im a little worried if Jake Evans is our #3 but honestly Poehling looked better than JK if you compare their last 2 AHL stints so maybe he's the missing piece. Still worried about our defense though because i am sure they will play Chairot-Savard as our second pair & thats a disaster waiting to happen imho - but i hope im wrong.
  2. Kotkaniemi at $2m is worth more than a 1st and a 3rd, yes. (and while i agree its likely to be a late 1st, its not a certainty). Kotkaneimi at $6m at this stage may well not be worth more than that. Clearly one GM didnt think so and my who were polled said they would walk away from him. Thats an assumption though. We have no idea where JK's head's at and what his expectations are. I would *think* he probably will sign a more respectable $3.5-4.5m next year if he doesnt break out but who knows. He'll have to be qualified at $6.1 (or at 5.1 if they choose to use that one-time option). Ive been watching Dvorak closely since Domi mentioned he thought he was one of the most underrated players in the league. He reminds me a lot of Plekanec so we shall see. History says you're probably right but i think he'll be good value for the full term of the contract. I certainly *hope* he's supplanted as our #2 because that means our team is better than if we run him as our second best centre. I also think it might be a tricky year for JK. I do like the kid and wanted to see him succeed here but it will be interesting to see how he does going forward.
  3. I wouldnt be surprised at all if they were interested in him - they clearly have a lot of interest in Finnish players - but yeah, the way it was put together, and subsequently played up on social media etc, there's a whole lot of pettiness going on. Interestingly, i think that JK may be a loser in the long run. Lets say he had taken the $2.5m bridge (2 years) Mb was purportedly offering him. Thats $4m. He gets pretty near guaranteed 2nd line centre minutes. He has 2 years to really prove his worth & if he does, he probably gets a substantial increase. Instead, he signs for $6m (1 year). He apparently has a multi year lower cap hit deal in place with the canes but thats speculation so lets assume he doesnt. Waddell has already said he will likely play wing. Wings arent as valued as centres. He may not make the top 2 lines. There's a decent chance he makes far less in subsequent deals than he would have if he had stayed here & become a true top 2 centre. We'll never know but i could see this being a bad move for JK in the long run.
  4. The Cane's organization is annoying in their "we're a bunch of jerks" branding. Maybe thats why they have less followers than me on instagram.
  5. At this stage im not certain Kotkaneimi is better than Poehling, who had very similar stats to him this last year vs. JK's stint in the AHL. Now, you can certainly argue that if thats the case, we should have traded Kotkaniemi & would have almost certainly gotten more than a 1st and 3rd for him, but once that OS attached a $6.1m salary to him, i dont think he's the same player, value-wise as he was at $2 or $3m. Even if the Canes have an extension worked out with him, you have to figure its probably around $4m now which is possibly high (with term) for a guy who still may not reach the potential we all hoped he would. He was ranked all over but most experts had him somewhere between 10th and 20th. That said, Arizona (5th pick) said they would have taken him if we hadnt.
  6. This. I think that BPA should always be the choice in at least the first 10 picks, if not the first round altogether. You can always trade that player if you dont have a need. Drafting a "project" 3rd overall was always a very risky move to take.
  7. Dvorak is a very good #3 and possibly a good #2 - its really hard to assess him fairly after seeing him play in that tire fire in Arizona. That said, I think there's potential. Kotkaniemi still looked shaky to me at pretty much everything. There'd be flashes of brilliance but then long periods of meh. I am not sure id be confident with him as a #2 yet and I dont think he's as good a #3 as Dvorak, so its a bit of a wash. I do still think JK has a higher ceiling but as each year went by im not sure he'd reach it. I think we know what we've got in CD and I understand why the team chose to move on from JK. The crappiest part for me is that i have a drawing started of JK that im not going to finish now.
  8. I also agree. I know the advanced stats darlings will say JK was better. but right now, Sept 21 I like Dvorak more. He reminds me a bit of Plekanec when i watched him the last couple of years. He's locked up on a reasonable cap hit for 4 years - and while he is older than JK they will both be UFA at the same time. No complaints. Im sad to see JK go because i really like the kid but id be lying if said i wasnt concerned with his development the last couple of years. I guess Poehling is going to get a much longer look this year...
  9. For a first-round pick in 2022 and a second-round pick in 2024. Not great, but not horrible either. Dont mind the spreading out of the picks.
  10. As I said for the whole week, i was 50/50 on what I thought we would - and should - do. We'll never know all of the details, so for example, maybe Kotkaneimi will give a reasonable 4 year extension to the Canes but not to us - but regardless, I think it was clear the team was losing faith in him. We're in a bad spot now, but with signings like Hoffman and Savard clearly MB wants us to win now, so I assume he's going to make a few big moves over the next couple of weeks.
  11. Here's my (Im sure 100% wrong) idea on what will happen today: - The Hurricane's offer got MB off his butt and working the phones like mad. He worked out a deal for Christian Dvorak for a 2nd rounder, Jordan Harris (and possibly a salary dump) - The Habs will match JK's offer sheet. They have a deal in place with him for a multi year extension (at a much lower cap hit - maybe $4m per) to be announced January 1st. - We will also make the above noted trade. Opening night top 9 roster: Toffoli - Suzuki - Caufield Drouin- Kotkaneimi - Anderson Hoffman - Dvorak - Gallagher By game 10 we will realize we have more than enough forward depth but really really need another puck moving defensman.
  12. Tkachuk would have endeared himself to the coaches with his physical play but he's really bad defensively. I think they would have played him on the 4th line & right now he'd be a "gritty bottom 6 winger" - far better defensively but nowhere near the offensive player he's been in ottawa. But obviously thats just a guess, no way to know. Meanwhile, i do find it interesting that its been 6 1/2 days since the OS & MB hasnt said a word. No angry grumbles. No huffing an puffing - nothing. Thats quite surprising. It seems to me in the past every GM who has had a player Offer Sheeted has come out & said something (usually not flattering). He's certainly keeping us guessing!
  13. I think it was a combination of a few things. 1) we drafted positionally rather than BPA, that is obvious. Even if you were certain JK would be the most dominant player from his draft year - in a few years - he was not BPA at that moment. He was a project. I dont mind drafting positionally or 'projects' but not 3rd overall. 2) If you absolutely must draft positionally at that point, then you do your due diligence and let him develop properly. He could have stayed in Finland. He could have gone to the AHL beause of the 1st round clause - but instead we played him in the NHL. He needed a year or two of dominating at the lower levels. He didnt get that. The problem is that if we had let him develop as he needed to, we would have had to have bought into the rebuild or reset mode and MB was clearly not prepared to do that. I still think he could develop and he might still end up being one of the best players from his draft year (maybe not top 3 but certainly top 10) but having to pay him $6.1m at this stage is a hard pill to swallow. I will also add that i think if we had taken Tkachuk or Hughes neither would have done well here. Both are poor defensively at this point and our coaches would not have given them anywhere near the ice time or responsibilities they've' been given in Vancouver and Ottawa respectively.
  14. Yeah I doubt we'll ever know (unless this things ends in a deal instead of a match or a no match). But i know that before the draft, it was a no-brainer they were going to take Svechnikov but they did mention really liking JK. I dont think anyone actually thought they would take him but I specifically remember their praise for him since i was wishing Svech would fall to us (of course MB would have probably picked Walhstrom then lol!!). Maybe their Finnish scouts (they have a LOT of Finns on that team) think there's a good fit with him on Aho's wing or something. I dunno. Definitely a more interesting week in terms of Hockey than i thought we'd see this time last week!!
  15. A really good read here: https://www.yardbarker.com/nhl/articles/should_the_canadiens_match_hurricanes_offer_sheet_for_jesperi_kotkaniemi/s1_14825_35778407 A few analysts give good arguments why the team should - and shouldnt - resign JK. Yesterday i felt like we shouldnt. Today I feel like we should. I wonder how I'll feel tomorrow. The thing is, we have no idea what sort of discussions MB has had with Kotkaniemi, or other GMs. Maybe he has a deal in place that will blow us all away. Maybe Kotkaniemi is willing to sign a 6 year deal at $4.5m per. Who knows. Definitely interesting to see what MB announces tomorrow.
  16. Interesting option. He's on the last year of a $5.6m deal though. Thats a concern. He's definitely a better player right now than JK but he's also 6 years older..
  17. I agree that the optics feel this way (spite) but if thats the case, why were they trying to trade for him before the OS? Clearly they seem to like JK... im just not sure why. I mean I like him and Id want him on my team but when you already have that roster of forwards (and especially centres) it seems a bit odd...
  18. I think we're going to be pleasantly surprised with Wideman. I think 3rd RD is his to lose. I hope Brook makes a big jump this year. For a while we were looking at him as our best defensman prospect - he's fallen back a bit but im still hopeful. Same. Norlinder especially. And Poehling.
  19. We just spent the last 2 pages talking about this!
  20. Really curious to see what happens in the next 24 hrs. I imagine we'll have to wait the full 7 days but its possible MB announces the decision today. At the centre you have a (barely) 21 year old centre, with over 200 NHL games, he's big, he's skilled, he has the makings of a dominant centre but he hasnt got there yet. Most GMs seem to think he's worth $2m a season, Carolina offered $6.1 so obviously its not a simple "we'll match" decision. BUt what makes it really interesting is the centre depth of each team: Montreal has Suzuki... then a whole bunch of guys who are suited to 3rd or 4th line duties. Thats it. Sure, is possible Evans or Poehling take a big jump this year but on paper, we're very very thin there. Carolina has an abundance of Centres. Aho is an elite #1. But Necas is possibly a #1 in the making too (he's been playing RW) while Trochek, Staal and even Stepan are all capable #2-3-4 centres. Then you have Ryan Suzuki and Jack Drury who both are probably better centre prospects than any guy we have in Laval. Where does Kotkaniemi fit in all of this?? Sure, you could play him on the wing or trade someone to make room for him, but then why sign him to this crazy salary. I really think that one option that hasnt been discussed much is that Waddell/Dundon are trying to use the OS as leverage in a trade. I think they want Kotkaneimi for sure, I dont think it was just for spite, but I think they want a centre group of Aho, JK and Necas. I think the other guys are expendable and I wouldnt be surprised at all to see someone like Trochet and/or Suzuki coming back to our team by this time tomorrow.
  21. Molson has said on record that he knew about the pick before they made it and he gave his blessing prior to drafting what they knew was going to be a very polarizing player.
  22. Yeah he has 7 days to match & i would suspect he'll take the full week which ends this Saturday. He could match any time before that but the longer he stretches it out, the more options there are to explore.
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