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DA_Champion

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  1. 1. New York Rangers 2. Boston 3. Washington 4. Pittsburgh 5. Philadelphia 6. New Jersey 7. Carolina 8. Florida 9. Tampa Bay 10. Ottawa 11. Buffalo 12. Toronto 13. Winnipeg 14. Montreal 15. New York Islanders
  2. I have reservations about these lines. First, I don't "know" that Bourque is a capable scorer. Perhaps he's finished, but it's worth trying out. The Plekanec line is a defensive shutdown line. It is there to hold back the other team's best players. Armstrong might be a better fit than Cole. You have Gomez riding the bench which is unlikely. Finally, Markov will be psychologically rusty and I don't expect him to be a first pairing dman, certainly not for the 1st half of the season.
  3. Rumor has it that Bergevin offered the Jets Subban, Eller, and Bourque for Evander Kane and Ron Hainsey. A good irony. The Habs can throw away a defenseman and replace him by a defenseman they threw away, Hollywood Hainsey. Evander Kane is a good player. Left-wing power forward with size. That's good to have. Not as good as having a first pairing dman. Finally, Eller >>> Throw-in.
  4. Overall I agree with you on Galchenyuk. We all hope he becomes a player on the level of Anze Kopitar, Tyler Seguin, Brad Richards, or Eric Staal. However, many top-5 picks fail, it happens, we should hope for a hope run but not depend on it. I do think though that he should be entitled to a top-9 role at the start of the 2013-2014 season. In recent years Los Angeles drafted Brayden Schenn (Mike Richards) at 5th overall, Drew Doughty at 2nd overall, and Anze Kopitar at 11th overall. They don't make those picks without also drafting Thomas Hickey at 4th overall. That's how it goes.
  5. I think we have a high chance of drafting another player equivalent to Galchenyuk next year. According to the Hockey News, Centers Nathan MacKinnon will go 1st, Sean Monahan will go 3rd, Aleksander Barkov will go 5th. If a Galchenyuk-type player has a 50% chance of succeeding (sounds about right?), then having two such players means you have a 75% chance that at least one of them succeeds. I suppose my argument is moot if we use our pick to draft Seth Jones, or if there's a lockout and we end up drafting 23rd.
  6. We should not underestimate the value of having a luxury 3rd line center if that is what Lars becomes -- look at how valuable Jordan Staal was in Pittsburgh. A luxury 3rd line is one who excels at shutdown, provides good secondary scoring at a level of over 30+ points a year, and can seamlessly become a 2nd line center if there's an injury. If you end up with such a player on your team, you have an asset, a good one that will in general be under-appreciated on the trade market. This can be Eller at the start of the 2012-2013 season, and can be Plekanec sometime around the 2014-2015 season or beyond. I'll also point out that we don't have a lot of bottom-6 centers in the farm system. I can't think of any plausible NHLers other than Joonas Nattinen.
  7. Roy_133, Whatever concerns you have over the fact that Galchenyuk only has a ~50% chance of becoming the 1st line center we all want him to be should evaporate if we draft in the lottery again next year.
  8. I don't think you can project a roster three years into the future with such detail. Aside from that: 1) Gallagher will never be an effective 4th line winger. He is a small player and his skill is goal scoring. He makes it into the top-6 and becomes a Gionta-type player, or he doesn't make it. A plausible scenario is that he learns to dominate Hamilton over 2 years and eventually takes Gionta's spot. Another plausible scenario is that he becomes Corey Locke. 2) LeBlanc is spelled Leblanc, he isn't Irish. 3) I think Joonas Nattinen will eventually become a bottom-6 center for the Habs.
  9. Some numbers to clarify the discussion. When playing 41 games at home, David Desharnais had 3:33 power play minutes per game, 0:26 penalty killing minutes, and 14:48 ES minutes per game. He produced 9 goals, 35 points and went +17. When playing 40 games on the road, David Desharnais had 3:00 power play minutes per game, 0:28 penalty killing minutes, and 14:30 ES minutes per game. He produced 7 goals, 25 points and went -7. When playing 40 games at home, Tomas Plekanec had 3:22 power play minutes per game, 3:03 penalty killing minutes, and 14:47 ES minutes per game. He produced 8 goals, 22 points and went -15. When playing 41 games on the road, Tomas Plekanec had 2:48 power play minutes per game, 3:22 penalty killing minutes, and 14:06 ES minutes per game. He produced 9 goals, 30 points and went +0. When playing at home and where the coach got to match lines, Desharnais produced 35 points in 41 games, a decent clip. However, on the road, when the other coach can respond, Desharnais's production drops by 37% ... he clearly benefited from preferential minutes. ************* "Behind the Net" reports the statistic Corsi "QoC", basically, the higher the number, the tougher the average opponents faced by that player. The average for a team should be "0". Tomas Plekanec had 0.727, Lars Eller had 0.429, David Desharnais had 0.007, Petteri Nokelainen had -0.021, and Scott Gomez had -0.820. I knew that DD faced much weaker competition than Plekanec. I didn't know that Desharnais faced substantially weaker competition than Eller. For comparison, Josh Gorges and PK Subban scored 1.068 and 0.970, whereas Chris Campoli and Tomas Kaberle scored -0.494 and -0.561. ************ Another way to give preferred minutes is not just to pick opposition, but to pick faceoff location. Tomas Plekanec took 1145 ES faceoffs last year. 308 were in the offensive zone, 411 were in the defensive zone, and 413 were in the neutral zone. That means 27% in the offensive zone, 36% in the defensive zone, and 36% in the neutral zone. David Desharnais took 1051 ES faceoffs last year. 347 were in the offensive zone, 318 were in the defensive zone, 399 were in the neutral zone. That means 33% in the offensive zone, 30% in the defensive zone, and 38% in the neutral zone. I'll note the total numbers don't add up because some of the information is from nhl.com, whereas the zonestarts is from "Behind the net", and includes the instances when the player was playing the shift as a winger. ************ The bottom line about DD is that he doesn't contribute on the PK, and he can produce at a 16 goal, 62 point pace when given two excellent wingers, disproportionate zone starts, esier opposition, and over 3 minutes a game of power play time. I just don't see that much room for him here moving forward once Galchenyuk emerges, but you never know. He should be given the same opportunity at the start of next season, and one of Plekanec, Eller, or Desharnais should be gone at the deadline, probably one of Desharnais or Plekanec. For me the question is how can we win a cup? I can visualize a cup win with Galchenyuk as #1C, and Plekanec and Eller being 2A/2B. It's hard to visualize a cup contender with Galchenyuk as #1C and Desharnais as #2C, because Desharnais won't be the 16 goal, 62 point player that Habs fandom is salivating over if he gets #2C linemates, offensive opportunities, defensive responsibilities, and power play time.
  10. His wingers also benefited from sheltered minutes. Pacioretty had 14 goals in 37 games last year as a 21 year old. His 33 goals in 79 games this year as a 22 year old is merely natural progression. Further, they both benefited from Gionta's injury. Once that happens you know these two will get more opportunities, and nobody would have factored that in at the start of the year.
  11. When Henrik Sedin gets sheltered minutes he produces 112, 94, and 81 points. Sheltered minutes is worth it at 112 and 94 points, it might not be at 81 points and it's certainly not worth it at 62 points. I agree that whether we keep Plekanec or Desharnais should depend on the relative trade values.
  12. I hope we maximize DD's trade value and then trade him. If we really shelter him all season long we might be able to get a 1st rounder with additional throw ins. I don't see him fitting into our long-term plans if we are to build a contender. I can visualize a contender with Plekanec/Eller as 2nd/3rd line centers, but I can't visualize a contender with Desharnais as the 1st line center. Desharnais is the type of player who, when given disproportionate PP time, easy forward competition, two 1st line wingers, and tons of offensive zone starts manages to... become the 20th most productive center in the league for points. That's right, he is 20th among centers in the NHL in spite of all his advantages. If 1st line center was a regular season rank, the Habs wouldn't even make the playoffs. They wouldn't even be in 9th place. Meanwhile, if you look at the guys above him, they can also sometimes contribute on the PK, and they tend to have a much higher goals to assist ratio. Desharnais isn't even top-30 among centers for goals scored. He is in 54th place. Even worse, on average, the 19 centers ahead of Desharnais in points and 53 centers ahead of Desharnais in goals achieved what they did with inferior winger quality to Desharnais. Fundamentally, we don't need a center who only manages to be 20th in the league for points in spite of a multitude of advantages. If you're going to give a center all those advantages that create imbalances and difficulties that cascade everywhere else in the roster, you need him to be a top-5. If you can't get the center that we hope Galchenyuk can become, then you need a center that can compensate for his "1B" offensive production in other ways, for example Plekanec's penalty killing. For me, the 2012-2013 season is all about setting the stage for future seasons. We're not winning anything this year, and thus Bergevin will hopefully try and ship out whatever doesn't fit into the contender picture. Galchenyuk will be our 3rd line center at the start of the 2013-2014 season and thus we'll need to make room for him beforehand. I don't want Galchenyuk on the 4th line and I don't want to hear garbage about him needing to "earn a roster spot". One of Plekanec,Eller, or Desharnais, needs to go. Desharnais is the one who is least effective in his position.
  13. I think Kaberle's contract is a lot better now than it was a year ago, and will be even better at this year's deadline. It's not as bad as you make it out to be. Marek Zidlicky, an inferior player, was traded at the deadline for a good return in spite of having a similar contract. Calgary just signed Dennis Wideman, an inferior albeit similar player, to a 5-year, 25 million dollar contract. I for one am counting on Markov.
  14. Kaberle is a puck moving defenseman who can quarterback a power play with his intelligent passes. He's a good player, but he is a player of the same style as Markov and Subban. We don't need all three. Kaberle is superfluous skill on a reasonable contract and thus one of our best trading chips.
  15. Tomas Kaberle is severely underrated. He had 22 points in 43 games last year, that's a 42 point pace. He was somewhat weak because he had post-Cup hangover which happens to a lot of players. I bet he has great trade value. Puck-moving dmen tend to fetch great value on the trade market. If he works out this summer and we play him properly next year, he will fetch a 1st rounder minimum. Philadelphia could use a puck-moving D. Let's ask for Wayne Simmonds.
  16. I don't know. There's still a 50 player roster spot limit and he takes up a spot. Additionally our franchise is in the midst of a rebuild. We don't want him taking up ice time in Hamilton.
  17. Buy out Gomez at the end of the year. Bury Bourque in the ECHL.
  18. All these lineups are going out the window once the inevitable injuries happen. I definitely think Gomez and Bourque should be given privileged minutes this year. It increases the odds of trading them.
  19. It's interesting to note the incredible progression of Tinordi this year. I didn't watch him play, but his stats are very convincing. http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=120972 He went from 14 points in 63 games to 16 points in 48 games (whatever). Further, he had 8 points in 19 playoff games, compared to 0 points in 6 playoff games last year. More impressive than that though, his +/- went from -8 to +39. The year he had a -8, he was among the worst on the team in +/-. http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0008142011.html This year, however, his +39 is the best on the team, and by a mile. For comparison, the 2nd best is +30, 3rd best is +29, 4th best is +27. So he stands out compared to his teammates. Not only that, but he managed to achieve the best +/- in spite of having only played 48 games, compared to the 56-64 games played by the guys behind him. That means his ratio of +/- to games played, a superior statistic than +/- alone, is even more of an outlier. Before people say that +/- is irrelevant, I'll point out to them that it is relevant when you have the best +/- on your team by a wide margin. If you check nhl stats and you look up players who have the best +/- on their team, they are nearly good players. The last time I can recall that a Habs prospect dominated +/- in Junior to this extent was PK Subban http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0008202009.html He led his team in +/- to a comparable extent that Jarred Tinordi did.
  20. How did Toronto not want him? Every player is let go when a great package is offered.
  21. Why is the shootout not considered a special team? Is it not equally important to a team's overall success than the PP and PK? With a good shootout practice regimen, we could rise from being a 15th place to being a 12th place team.
  22. There's no triggerman in the mould of Sourray / Streit / Schneider / Bergeron / Wisniewski. It's likely one of the shortest D in the league. No one taller than 6'2". We've lost 6'2" Hamrlik, 6'4" Mara, 6'7" Gill, 6'4" Komisarek, and 6'4" Sourray in recent history. We keep getting smaller. Our top-4 is Subban-Gorges / Markov-Emelin. Markov will need time to recover mentally, he's going to be psychologically rusty. Emelin is more of a bottom pairing D. Once one of those guys gets injured, our defense is going to become even porous. Our only first class shutdown pair is Subban-Gorges. We're going to have to use them on the PK and against the other team's top lines. That is a misuse of Subban's energies. The third pairing of Kaberle-Bouillon is going to have to have babied minutes. It's defensively terrible at best. The spares are Diaz, Weber, and St-Denis. There's nobody with anything special to sub in to tactical games. No John Scott or Marc-Andre Bergeron type player who can be counted on to do at least one thing well. **************** In summary, the problem with the defense is that it can't score goals, it's asking Price to play God, and it's going to be physically dominated.
  23. We had a third of a season of Spacek and two thirds of a season of Gill. We're losing both. GF and GA don't tell the whole story. We played a defensive system under Martin (a large swath of the season), which necessarily pushed down both the scoring and the goals allowed. The weakness of the power play (and our general offense) is largely due to the lack of James Wisniewski / Mathieu Schneider / Mark Streit / Marc-Andre Bergeron / Sheldon Sourray type player.
  24. Habs defense: Subban-Gorges Markov-Emelin Kaberle-Bouillon spares: Diaz, St-Denis, Weber It's an extremely weak defense. The offensive dmen are all passers, we don't have any effective shooters like Marc-Andre Bergeron, Sheldon Sourray, etc. to complement them. We don't have a physically imposing defensive defensemen, so we're going to allow a lot of goals. Finally, as weak as this defense is, it looks even worse once you factor in the eventual injuries.
  25. Relative to the start of last season, we've lost Cammalleri, Gill, Kostitsyn, Spacek and replaced them with Bourque, Prust, Armstrong, and Kaberle. We have not improved. Buffalo picked up Cody Hodgson in the late season. Toronto picked up James van Riemsdyk and Jay McClement Tampa Bay picked up Matt Carle, Sami Salo and Benoiut Pouliot Winnipeg picked up Ponikarovsky and Jokinen.
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