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Everything posted by DA_Champion

  1. Chris Pronger played 13 regular season games last year, and no playoff games, I don't expect any dropoff.
  2. Philadelphia was 5th this year. I was really impressed by Philadelphia these playoffs. Giroux, Simmonds, B. Schenn, Couturier, Hartnell, Briere... that's a very potent offense. I'm not sure how the loss of Jagr will impact them. They picked up Luke Schenn this offseason. He is a variable. He has apparently played poorly in Toronto this past year. However, I remember him from his rookie year -- he was amazing. Some thought he could be a franchise dman which is high praise for a defensive dman, but he was that good. This implies to me that there are coaching problems in Toronto, and that he could bounce back in Philadelphia.
  3. "Next year when everyone is healthy" is an old song we hear every summer.
  4. Can Erik Cole, Max Pacioretty, and David Desharnais repeat? Perhaps. The last time a Habs player had a career year that had people hoping for a repeat was Alexei Kovalev with 35 goals and 84 points in 2007-08. A lot of fans actually thought he might improve because Andrei Kostitsyn only joined the line at the midpoint of the season, Tanguay and Lang were added to the team and would relieve pressure in matchups, a lot of young players would improve, etc. Fans pointed out what went wrong and then concluded Kovalev would do even better. The reality? A career year is a year in which more things go right than wrong. It could be repeated, but that is unlikely to happen. However, what went right for Cole, Pacioretty and Desharnais is that they got a disproportionate number of offensive zone starts and power play time. They would cruise on the offensive zone together while Plekanec would perform shutdown duties with Ryan White and Brad Staubitz. Their performance this year has nothing to do with "luck", it is 100% repeatable in that case. As long as Therrien minimizes the offensive opportunities he gives to Plekanec, Eller, Bourque, Gionta, etc then we have a good shot at getting another great season from Pacioretty-Desharnais-Cole.
  5. I rate the Eastern Conference as follows: Stanley Cup Contenders New York Philadelphia Pittsburgh Washington Boston Bubble Teams Carolina Buffalo Florida Ottawa New Jersey Lottery Contenders Long Island Toronto Montreal Tampa Bay Winipeg Uncertainties: Washington could decline to bubble team, Florida and Ottawa could fall into lottery territory, and Tampa Bay and Winipeg could rise to bubble status. Among the lottery contenders, I see a lot of parity and I think the difference will come down to luck. 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th. It's all the same to me, so I'm predicting a 13th place finish for the Habs.
  6. What's the official rule? No pay sites, or no blogs, or both? Are we allowed to link to RDS.ca even though one needs cable to watch RDS?
  7. I'm not sure which thread to post this in. Hockeyprospectus has posted a list of the 10 habs prospects. Montreal Canadiens Top 10 Prospects 1. Alexander Galchenyuk, Center 2. Sebastian Collberg, Right Wing 3. Nathan Beaulieu, Defense 4. Danny Kristo, Right Wing 5. Brendan Gallagher, Right Wing 6. Jarred Tinordi, Defense 7. Tim Bozon, Left Wing 8. Charles Hudon, Left Wing 9. Michael Bournival, Center 10. Morgan Ellis, Defense Justifications for the rankings are in the link. It is an exceptional ranking in that Colberg is higher than you'll find elsewhere, and Tinordi is lower. I know there's some sort of rule that we're not allowed to post links but I'm not sure if that's for any link or just blogs. This is a legit analysis site imo.
  8. Yes I understand that, but it's irrational on the part of the owners as it's just a zero-sum game. Personally, I think it's unfair that young players are underpaid relative to old players. It's a wealth transfer, "immoral" so to speak, but that's the way it is.
  9. Would you guys trade Subban for the best dman in the league? This is a flexible question. Best dman in the league is whoever you think is the best dman. Would you trade Subban for him straight up?
  10. I hope the owners are not so idiotic as to cause a work stoppage. The business has been doing well. Salary cap has gone from 39 million to 71 million over 7 years, that's equivalent to 8.9% annual growth in revenues. If I had 8.9% annual growth, I would be looking for ways to keep the current system going. Cheaper entry level contracts doesn't help the owners. They're going to be giving away the total amount of money no matter what/ All it does is transfer money from future players to current players. Ergo, cheaper entry level contracts is a gift to the NHLPA, a concession.
  11. First, you have absolutely no idea who is trying and who is not.It's just slogans. The only exception is when players show up to camp out of shape, but there is no evidence whatsoever that Alexander Semin is in love with Dunkin Donuts. All you can see, other than fitness, is production. You don't have any counterargument to my examples. Another one might be Christopher Higgins. He went from being a 27 goal player to being a bust. He was given a chance to bounce back. Does Zherdev get that chance? No. Kovalev and Cole are not comparable. Kovalev was a 65 point player in an average season, and scored a 4.5 million dollar contract when the cap was 39 million. Cole was a 50 point player (35 goals is a fluke) who signed a 4.5 million dollar contract at age 32 when the cap was 62 million. They're totally different. I have no idea why you'd compare salaries from different cap eras.
  12. I'm not Weep, but, Alexander Frolov was booted from the NHL despite having 397 points in 579 career games. Nikola Zherdev had 261 points in 421career games, and the same thing happened. Andrei Kostitsyn has 222 points in 398 career games. Those are good offensive stats for second-line wingers. North American players like Guillaume Latendresse, Benoiut Pouliot and Michael Ryder with very similar or inferior stats don't have as much trouble finding new contracts. That said, the Semin situation is still surprising. Semin isn't a 2nd line winger like the 6 names mentioned above, he is a 1st line winger. One doesn't expect to see so much discrimination so high up the talent ladder.
  13. Graeme, Zero standard deviation is just luck. You expect some statistical fluctuations because each shot on net is a random trial. If a hockey player scores n-goals per year, you expect the standard deviation in goals scored to be square root of n. In the case of a 31-goal player like Semin, perfectly consistent stats over 6 seasons would include: 41-28-22-32-28-27, 14-32-29-18-29-38, 28-35-22-20-34-36, 35-27-32-33-35-28, with a standard deviation of 5.57 goals per season. These perfect-consistency stats were generated using a random number generator in the matlab programming language, and so actually you might expect that these sequences are far more consistent than you'd expect of a real players, given real-life effects such as injuries, aging process, experience acquisition, variable linemates, and variable PP opportunities.
  14. My post was actually sarcastic. I don't actually think Semin is the most talented goal scorer in the world (62 goals per year average potential). I think that once a guy is top 5% in the league in performance, they are at worst top 10% or maybe top 15% in effort level. To be top 5% in performance, you probably need to be both top 10% in talent and top 10% in effort.
  15. I'm really impressed that Semin can average 31 goals per year as he only shows up every 2nd game. If he tried every night he would score 62 goals per year.
  16. Semin misses 10 games every year, and Parise misses 70 games once every 7 years. If the roles were reversed, who would be considered more durable? I've already shown in a prior post that Semin's goal scoring is statistically consistent with perfect consistency. You don't expect to get the same stats from a player every year, and if you do, then it's a fluke.
  17. Right, we don't know what contract Semin will get, but we know that he didn't get the same offers as the massively overrated Parise even though he has identical goal scoring, assists, durability, age in spite of having inferior linemates and offensive oportunities. Semin is not a Bourque-Gomez-Kaberle type player. The only thing he has in common with those guys is that he isn't a WASP. Bourque is aboriginal, Gomez is latin-American, and Kaberle is Eastern European, but that's where the similarities end. Semin is a much better player.
  18. Actually, Parise and Semin are very similar players when you measure in terms of reality rather than perception: - Parise averages 30 goals per year since his rookie campaign, Semin averages 31. - Parise averages 33 assists per year since his rookie campaign, Semin averages 33. - Parise has played 423 games in the last six season, Semin has played 417. They are equally durable. - Parise was born in July, 1984; Semin was born in March, 1984. There are three main differences between Parise and Semin. - Parise is born in Minnesota, whereas Semin is born in Krasjonarsk. - Parise gets to play on the first line in NJ, with the best offensive opportunities and linemates. Semin plays on the second line in Washington. - Parise just signed a 13 year, 7.5 million dollar a year contract, making him one of the most overrated players in NHL history. Semin is unsigned in spite of being a 30-30 player, making him one of the underrated players in NHL history. Honestly, either Parise has high-end talent, or he is one of the hardest-working guys in the league -- but not both. Parise is a 30-30 player who gets top-line minutes including first-wave PP. If he had top-end talent and was one of the hardest-working guys in the league, he would be a 40-40 player not a 30-30 player.
  19. I personally think that's a good idea, but whether or not it happens depends on Bergevin's vision. The trade is a rebuilding move. My condolences. I hope for you guys he doesn't get promoted.
  20. How highly do you think your organization values Teuvo Tervainen? Is he tradeable? Not really interested in Frolik. Hjalmarsson+Morin is almost good enough.
  21. There's an internet rumour that Teuvo Terevainen was number 2 on Trevor Timmins list of the best prospects in the draft, behind number 1 Alex Galchenyuk. If that's remotely true, we should trust the judgment of Timmins, particularly since we are a rebuilding team, and we should make that trade.
  22. I'm not worried about our top-6. Pacioretty-Desharnais-Cole ???-Plekanec-Gionta The coach has so many options for the hole: 1) Put Galchenyuk on the easy minutes Desharnais line, and bump the defensively responsible Cole down to the Plekanec line. 2) Put Bourque on the easy minutes Desharnais line, and bump the defensively responsible Cole down to the Plekanec line. 3) Put Gomez as a winger on the Plekanec line. It will reunited Gomez and Gionta. It adds a defensively responsible player to a shutdown line. It adds a playmaker to a line that has a shooter (Gionta) and a guy who can both score and pass (Plekanec). It means that when Plekanec is kicked out of the faceoff box another guy with 50% faceoff percentage can take over, allowing Plekanec to be more aggressive in the box. Lastly, it means that Gomez' stats will be padded, and thus we will be able to trade him at the deadline. 4) Put Eller as a winger. Convert him to winger as an experiment to see if that might work long-term. It should certainly be tried as we need to know what our options are moving forward, since Galchenyuk will be a top-6 center. I think Gomez is the best option.
  23. And in any case Bourque is of aboriginal / French Canadian background. If his name way Roy Brown he might be getting additional chances, like Dustin Penner. ***** All of that said I do not want the Habs to sign Semin (or Doan) as I think rebuilding is the priority. Semin would make us a bubble team. However, a large number of NHL teams would benefit from his services.
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