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DA_Champion

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  1. Actually, Alexaner Semin's goal production is statistically consistent with perfect consistency. The fluctuations in his goal scoring perfectly match the simplest statistical noise model. If you look at Semin's 6 full NHL seasons, he has 38, 26, 34, 40, 28 and 21 goals. The most important statistic is the mean number of goals: 31.2, which is far removed from Jan Bulis territory. What that means is that if all things were equal, his goal scoring would have a standard deviation of sqrt(31.167) = 5.58 goals per season. That's the standard deviation for perfect consistency. To reiterate, if he was perfectly consistent, four of his seasons would see goals scored between 25 and 37 goals, and all of his seasons should see totals between 20 and 42 goals. However, all things are not equal. Some years he plays more games than others. The number of games he plays per season has a 10% standard deviation. That means if he was perfectly consistent his goal scoring would vary by 10% per year, or 3.1 goals, in addition to the 5.58 goals mentioned above. The total expected goal scoring dispersion is sqrt(5.58^2 + 3.12^2 ) = 6.4 goals per year. The actual dispersion in his goal scoring is 7.4 goals per year. The numbers are sufficiently similar that they can be considered the same. I'll also point out that I've never heard a player criticized for having only played six seasons following his rookie year. That's a big enough sample. Parise has played the same number of seasons. Washington's management team likely has the same mentality as that of other teams.
  2. Let's be honest. Imagine there was: - A white hockey player named Andrew Smith from Thunder Bay, Ontario; - Who was 6'2" and 209 lbs (he has size!); - Who was 28 years-old (he's entering his prime!); - Who had had seasons of 40, 38, 34, 28, 26, and 21 goals (he's a sniper!); - Who has not scored fewer than 20 goals and not had fewer than 16 assists in any season since his rookie season (he's consistent!); - Who had averaged 0.9 ppg in the last three seasons with a high goals to assists ratio; - Who had just played superbly in his team's second round playoff exit (he's a warrior!); - Who averages 70 games played per season and has not played less than 60 games a season in the six seasons since his rookie year (he's durable!); Do you think he would have received some spectacular contract offers by now? I do admit, it could be that Semin will end up getting the 8 year, 64 million dollar contract that Andrew Smith would get in this situation, but I'm not sure. It reflects poorly on NHL GMs if he doesn't. With respect to team needs, there are large number of teams in the NHL right now that would benefit from a durable, young, 6'2" winger who could contribute 30 goals and 30 assists. The stuff about laziness and consistency is completely made up. You could just as easily argue that Parise is lazy. Remember the olympic finals game when he scored a goal in the last few minutes of the third period? Why doesn't he play that well all the time? Is it because he's lazy and inconsistent?
  3. I don't know if AK46 and Alexander Semin are unsigned because they're only getting weak offers, or because they're taking their time picking between different offers. If it's the former, it demonstrates that racism is at a level that I had not previously realized. GMs across the league are harming their team because they're buying into the "Russians are lazy" meme. The converse of GMs underrating Russian players is that they overrate a lot of North American players. Zach Parise was severely overpaid by Minnesota, and I expect Ryan Getzlaf wll be overpaid next summer.
  4. In summary: Minnesota picked up Parise and Suter. Edmonton picked up Yakupov. Columbus picked up Murray, and improved when they traded for Jack Johnson. Carolina picked up Jordan Staal. Meanwhile, Toronto, NYI, and Anaheim have not improved.
  5. If the Toronto Maple Leafs trade for Luongo there will be an increased probability of the Habs drafting top-5 again.
  6. Since next season is a rebuilding season, I think the priority should be to maximize the trade value of the players we want to trade. The secondary priority is putting the youth into good development roles. Cole - Gomez - Bourque Gionta - Plekanec - Pacioretty Armstrong - Eller - Moen Prust - Noke - Blunden Subban - Gorges Markov - Emelin Kaberle - Bouillon
  7. I disagree completely. There's a huge difference between us and the playoffs last year. We're just not on the same level as Washington and Philadelphia. Even if we were, the point is not to lose in the second round, the point is to compete for the championship. Also, we had "a bit of luck". It's not as though this was a team where everything went wrong. We had: - A career season from Erik Cole. - Desharnais exceeding all expectations. - Progression from Alexei Emelin and Max Pacioretty above median expectations. - Health and consistency from Carey Price, PK Subban, and Tomas Plekanec, our three most important players. - The second best penalty kill in the 30-team NHL. The 2011-2012 Canadiens are not a team that finished last because everything went wrong. That is revisionist history. The 2011-2012 Canadiens are a team that finished last in spite of several things going really well, because overall they were a genuinely weak team.
  8. I see this team finishing in the 12-14th range. Winipeg, Carolina, Islanders, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay have all improved. I could see Ottawa and Florida falling back down but that's not enough to help us. Toronto will stay flat. I have been hoping that this season would be a development year for a while, and one of my arguments was that the 2012 UFA crop is weak. Now that UFA season has come and gone, I'm glad to see more people agreeing. It makes me hopeful that I knew what I was talking about, that it make sense, and that Bergevin sees it this way too. The 2013 draft is supposed to be one of the deepest ever. I hope we accumulate alot of draft picks at the deadline this year. If we can flip Colby Armstrong, Francis Bouillon and Tomas Kaberle for picks we're really solidifying the already-laid groundwork of a 2015-2020 dynasty, which should be the priority. If Gomez and Bourque bounce back we can flip them for draft picks as well. We can then cash in on the 2013 UFA crop, which may be one of the best ever, and thus further solidifying the 2015-2020 dynasty.
  9. Ultimately, star players are going to be criticized whenever they do anything other than stay for the same team and sign for a hometown discount.
  10. I think people from Montreal really overstate how fabulous things are here, and further, the extent to which that would matter. It's a great city but let's not pretend Dallas is a dump. Further, it's a one-year contract so I don't think he cares about quality of life. He's not settling.
  11. Apparently, Campoli has dated former Bachelor star (she came in 3rd), and former girlfriend of Carl Pavano, Gia Allemand. Lucky guy.
  12. Crosby joins the list of Mario Lemieux, Paul Kariya, and Eric Lindros... Wayne Gretzky is the greatest player ever among those who didn't deal with major injury problems.
  13. Injuries will happen to dmen nearly every year without fails. In the past three years, we've had to acquire Marc-Andre Bergeron, James Wisniewski, Tomas Kaberle, Paul Mara, Chris Campoli, Brent Sopel, Alex Picard, etc. Since it is inveitable, we might as well stock up on depth. The notion they won't be top-4 is irrelevant, as you don't expect your replacements for the top-4 to be top-4 themselves.
  14. We definitely need to start the season with 8 dmen so that we don't trade away our 2nd round draft picks once the inevitable injuries happen.
  15. I think Engvist and Nattinen are potential NHL caliber players, yes.
  16. For the team to put its prospects in a position to succeed it would need to have a plan. How many energy centers does the team want 3 years down the line? How many shutdown centers? I'm not sure the team knows. With Plekanec, Desharnais, Eller, Leblanc and Gomez in the system I could see the team trying a doomed-to-failure experiment of 3 offensive forward lines next year with a shutdown line of White-Plekanec-Staubitz. That doesn't leave any room for Engvist or Nattinen. ETA: TBH, I'm afraid this team will do to Lars Eller what Pittsburgh did to Jordan Staal.
  17. The reason Neil didn't land a punch is because the referees got in the way. Sometimes refs stop a fight before there's blood, sometimes they allow a lot of damage to takes place. I do not know what the reasoning is. In this case the refs rescued Chara. I can't speak for the other teams that didn't pick up Orr. A lot of them already have enforcers, and thus they don't need Orr. What do you think of Glen Sather's 4-year, big bucks contract to Boogarde? He's one of the best GMs in the game. He has recently replaced Boogarde with John Scott.
  18. I would prefer a 5 minute penalty kill to seeing one of our better players injured. One day Subban will be successfully slew-footed, nobody will retaliate, and fans will spend 4 months posting "When Subban comes back next season we'll be able to compete for 8th place". When you talk about "scoring a goal on the power play", you confuse battles with wars and tactics with strategy. It's actually legitimate to give up a PP goal in the short-term if it means a psychological edge that can last a year or more. Near the end of the 2008-09 season, Chara and Lucic double-teamed Komisarek, and punched him in the stomach, and nothing happened after. I have no idea if Boston was afraid of allowing goals scored on the power play (lol). However, when the playoffs followed, they had an easy 4-game sweep against a team that played small. As for Chara, I don't see him doing that to Pacioretty if we had an enforcer like Chris Neil on the roster. Look at the luck of absolute and total fear on Chara's face after Neil was done with him. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/fight-video-senators-chris-neil-hands-zdeno-chara-032458496.html Colton Orr? Toronto had a great start to the season, but they have sucked for a while. Maybe they're playing small, in the same way the Habs are playing bigger the past two games. Here's a video of Lucic surrendering against Orr: I wonder what's been happening since he's been gone. Habs should sign Orr, Moen and Staubitz this offseason.
  19. Roy, Just because Laraque was useless as an enforcer does not mean that enforcers are useless. It is an argument that shows up a lot, and a bad one. In this case, punk Grabovski got away with it. He knew he could. Also, do you think Chara would have nearly killed Pacioretty if we had Chris Neil, Evgeny Artyukhin, or any other player capable (and willing) of bashing Chara on our team? Let's expand the sample size by thinking of other teams. What do you think of Lucic bashing Ryan Miller earlier in the year? For Lucic, he knows that Buffalo is an obstacle, and therefore that Miller is an obstacle. Ergo, he injured Miller in order to improve Boston's regular season performance. That's how I see it.
  20. Two years ago, near the end of the 2008-09 season, a Toronto player reinjured Andrei Markov. We are an easy target if we do not have any real enforcers. Staubitz is just part of what he needs. We need a group of enforcers. However, some of you would rather be able to complain that we would be such a great team if we did not lead the league in injuries.
  21. The homepage of this website has a nice article on Staubitz and how he intervened to help Emelin. Hard to see Staubitz replacing Moen -- Moen is an different player. Secondary scoring, PK and shutdown skills, etc. He could replace White as he's just a better version of White, but who knows. Fundamentally, if this team is going for a rebuild it will need multiple enforcers. Randy Cunneyworth had the following to say: The players weren’t the only ones impressed by the newcomer’s willingness to get his hands dirty. “Nobody will admit it openly, but I think it makes a team more cohesive,” admitted head coach Randy Cunneyworth, who was known for his gritty style as an NHL player. “When you’ve got that element and players can back up certain actions on the ice, the other team knows it. Players of that nature can even out things or not allow things of that nature to go on. “I think it makes everybody a little more physical and a little bit braver to some extent,” he added. “Nobody will admit that, but I think I’m allowed to. I think that’s the element we’re trying to create. But it’s more about team toughness. It has to be everybody. I like it when a skilled guy plays a more physical game. If he can be effective at doing it in a legal way, that’s exciting hockey.” While Cunneyworth still hasn’t had a chance to sit down with the new winger and lay out a specific job description just yet, it seems like Staubitz is already up to speed with what his coach – and teammates – are expecting to see from him. “I think it’s pretty straightforward for me,” he shared. “Come in, play hard and compete.” http://canadiens.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=619764&navid=DL|MTL|home
  22. Part of his 17 penalty minutes is that he was kicked off in the 2nd period with a misconduct. Look here: http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/boxscore?gid=2012022820 5:56 Montreal interference - 2 min A. Emelin drawn by R. Malone 8:16 Tampa Bay fighting - 5 min R. Malone drawn by A. Emelin served by B. Segal 8:16 Montreal interference - 2 min B. Staubitz drawn by R. Malone 8:16 Tampa Bay aggressor - 10 min R. Malone 8:16 Montreal misconduct - 10 min B. Staubitz 8:16 Tampa Bay unsportsmanlike conduct - 2 min R. Malone drawn by A. Emelin What did Staubitz do at 8:16? hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm ??????
  23. Staubitz interfered with Malone from the bench. He might get a suspension for it. We definitely do not want Subban becoming our enforcer. He is a skilled player. We do not want him injured, and we do not want him getting long suspensions. Also, he would not be an effective enforcer, at least I do not think so. If they are so readily available why is it that I, as a 28 year old hockey fan, have zero recollection of any player doing for the Habs what Staubitz did last night?
  24. Noob, We are going to have to agree to disagree. The bottom line is that Emelin does not have a concussion right now. It could just easily be Eller or Subban. I think that is worth a little more than league minimum. You disagree. I await the response that the way to retaliate against goons is to punish opposing teams with our mighty power play.
  25. 1) I don't know of anybody suggesting big bucks for Staubitz. I think I suggested 2 years at 900,000. If you think that's big bucks then you are penny-wise and pound-foolish. You need to be realistic. A player who is making 500,000 can't afford suspensions, because salary is cut for suspensions. 2) Players doing what Staubitz is doing are not readily available. If it wasn't for Staubitz, emelin would have a concussion now, he might be blind actually due to his steel implant. When is the last time the Habs had a player like this? If they were readily available we wouldn't be excited about the fact Emelin doesn't have a concussion. 3) Habs fans have spent the past 4 or 5 years whining that they would have a good team if only they didn't have half the roster on injury reserve. Why not try and PREVENT injuries like we did last night?
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