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2012-13 State Of The Habs


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there is a rumor that flyers are going after PK

The Habs would match ANY offer sheet to Subban.

They'd probably, like the Predators, thank them for helping them lock up a great d-man for many years.

I didn't mean signing him was pointless, I meant the 4 years term was, as in unnecessarily long for a bottom 6 guy. He's still young enough to be useful for the entire contract so I don't see going long term as bad or anything, just not necessary...pointless. B)

I don't get your assessment of "pointless" he will be a solid fixture in the line up for the next 4 years while the habs try to win the Stanley Cup. The Habs are far better than their finish last year indicated and I can't wait to laugh at those who were being so negative at this point in time. Not sure if that's what you're doing but that's the only way that saying that signing was "pointless" makes sense as far as I can tell.

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The Habs would match ANY offer sheet to Subban.

They'd probably, like the Predators, thank them for helping them lock up a great d-man for many years.

I don't get your assessment of "pointless" he will be a solid fixture in the line up for the next 4 years while the habs try to win the Stanley Cup. The Habs are far better than their finish last year indicated and I can't wait to laugh at those who were being so negative at this point in time. Not sure if that's what you're doing but that's the only way that saying that signing was "pointless" makes sense as far as I can tell.

I'm just saying, in principal I don't think there's a need to lock up a bottom six player for four years. You can sign him for 2 years for example, then assess whether he should be re-signed/extended.

I'm not being negative towards bringing Moen back, I would have dissapointed if we let him walk.

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I'm just saying, in principal I don't think there's a need to lock up a bottom six player for four years. You can sign him for 2 years for example, then assess whether he should be re-signed/extended.

I'm not being negative towards bringing Moen back, I would have dissapointed if we let him walk.

2 years and it costs probably 2.5 to lock up Moen, and maybe he just says "No, I want term"

And I don't see the big deal between 2 and 4 personally, why are we expecting a drop off in his performance?

The Habs don't have to worry about one of their bottom 6 wing positions, or their top PK guy on the wing for the next 4 years.

How is this not a great thing? At 1.875 he's a bargain too, considering all that he brings to the team.

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Ive decided to analyze this

2012

28th overall Montreal:

2 30 goal scorers

4 50+ point players

1 All Star

1 All Star Rookie

2nd Overall Penalty Kill

28 Overall Powerplay

19 Goal for per game (tied with edmonton)

11th Goals against per game

29th Edmonton:

3 50+ point players

1 30 goal scorer

1 All Star

14 Overall PK

3rd Overall Powerplay

20th Goals for Per game

23rd Goals Against per game

30th Columbus

2 50 point players

1 30 goal scorer

24 overall Powerplay

30 overall penalty kill

1 All Star Rookie

28th Goals Against per game

26th Goals for Per game

2011

30th overall Edmonton

No 50 point scorers

No 30 Goal Scorers

27 Overall Powerplay

29 overall Penalty KIll

28 Goals for per game

28 Goals Against per game

1 All Star Rookie

29th Overall Colorado

11th Overall PP

30th Overall PK

18th Overall GF

30th Overall GA

1 All Star

1 All Star Rookie

3 50 Point Scorers

No 30 Goal Scorers

28th Overall Florida

30th Overall PP

6th Overall PK

27th OVerall GF

14 Overall GA

No 50 Point Scorers

No 30 Goal Scorers (Not even 25)

1 All Star Rookie

2010

30th Overall Edmonton

18 Overall PP

26 Overall PK

27 Overall GF

30 Overall GA

1 50 point scorer

1 30 Goal Scorer (the only 20+)

No All Stars due to Olympics however 2 played for Russia and Slovakia

29th Overall Toronto (hehe)

30th Overall PP

30th Overall PK

26th Overall GF

29th Overall GA

1 50 Point Scorer (and 1 49)

1 30 Goal Scorer

3 Olympians (Sweden, Czech, and USA)

28th Overall Florida

29th Overall PP

23rd Overall PK

28th Overall GF

19th Overall GA

2 50 Point Scorers

No 30 Goal Scorers

2 Olympians (Germany and Czech)

So if you note we appear to be the best bottom 3 team out of the last 3 seasons. How toronto managed to finish behind edmonton in 09-10 is beyond me.

But yeah, were not bad

Thank you for validating my post with these stats. Whether or not we want to face it this team is building and is not nearly as bad as traditional top 3 draft picking teams usually are.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Habs will be this years Florida Panthers: A bunch of unimpresssive FA signings added to a competent roster, mixed in with some good young players and good goaltending and voila a battle for a playoff spot is on the horizon.

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Thank you for validating my post with these stats. Whether or not we want to face it this team is building and is not nearly as bad as traditional top 3 draft picking teams usually are.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the Habs will be this years Florida Panthers: A bunch of unimpresssive FA signings added to a competent roster, mixed in with some good young players and good goaltending and voila a battle for a playoff spot is on the horizon.

I always considered the Florida Panthers to be doing moneyball.

They went out and got a bunch of guys who aren't coveted since they dont have impressive skills in what most analysts say is important, but they have the skills that work. Bundled together with the right chemistry and bam you got a team.

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You know what, I'm actually happy that MB didn't go out and try to rebuild the team in one summer. He picked up important character guys, but saw that there wasn't much available this season, so he's holding onto Molsons money.

A lot of rookie GM's like to blow up the team and show they mean business. But what's the point of throwing money and signing a player long term simply cos he's the only player available?

Next seasons UFA market may be a lil better. Habs will also have a few prospects that are much closer to joining the show.

We're not winning the cup this season, no point pulling a BG and blowing up the team with a weak FA pool.

Doan is interesting though, not convinced he's a top 6, but if he joins our Habs as a 2nd liner, he will add grit and toughness. Something the habs have been lacking.

I agree entirely. Almost nothing Bergevin could have done this summer would have made us a contender IMO. I'm glad he was patient, picked up character bottom six forwards, and will let the team develop from a youth standpoint it seems. I think it's more important for him to be patient now and next season rather than rush out a demolish the club just to reassemble to the same end.

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So we're paying Kaberle over $4 million per year to run the second PP unit? Fantastic.

:lol: Yeah... He's going to need to find some better form this season to make the deal worth it. The same thing with Markov, actually. Right now I have little confidence in either to be effective 5-on-5 in the defensive zone. I guess we can help stomach it better by considering it a "transitional" season.

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:lol: Yeah... He's going to need to find some better form this season to make the deal worth it. The same thing with Markov, actually. Right now I have little confidence in either to be effective 5-on-5 in the defensive zone. I guess we can help stomach it better by considering it a "transitional" season.

As it stands, we're likely a lottery team IMO. We could claw our way into 8th spot, but most likely we're in 10th, at least, fighting with a handful of other teams for lottery position.

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As it stands, we're likely a lottery team IMO. We could claw our way into 8th spot, but most likely we're in 10th, at least, fighting with a handful of other teams for lottery position.

Unfortunately I agree, if we want to become a contender again we must do it correctly. This upcoming season may be that bridge year from worst to first. If we do claw our way into a playoff spot anything can happen though. I can't see it with our current roster.

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Unfortunately I agree, if we want to become a contender again we must do it correctly. This upcoming season may be that bridge year from worst to first. If we do claw our way into a playoff spot anything can happen though. I can't see it with our current roster.

I agree. Another high draft choice would be nice and it gives us more time and a better opportunity to clear some unnecessary cap of off the books (Gomez, Kaberle, Bourque). We will also be resigning Pacioretty and most likely determining future plans for our centers (Plekanec, Desharnais, Eller). The real improvement needs to come on D though, IMO. It'd be oh so nice if we could find another solid top-four defender from within the organization our through trade/free agency. A top two defender would be a dream come true.

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We lost a lot of close games last year. Sure, luck could swing our way again (particularly if we can improve in the shootout), but we also had all three of our top-line forwards post career years of over 60 points. Will that happen again? It might, but I have my doubts. Historically, Cole has had trouble staying healthy -- last season was an anomaly. If he misses any significant length of time with an injury, that line's production will drop across the board. Then there's the Markov enigma, the Bourque reclamation project, the Kaberle wait-and-see, and of course, Gomez. A LOT of things have to go right for us this season if we're to make the playoffs. I'm not holding my breath.

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I rate the Eastern Conference as follows:

Stanley Cup Contenders

New York

Philadelphia

Pittsburgh

Washington

Boston

Bubble Teams

Carolina

Buffalo

Florida

Ottawa

New Jersey

Lottery Contenders

Long Island

Toronto

Montreal

Tampa Bay

Winipeg

Uncertainties:

Washington could decline to bubble team, Florida and Ottawa could fall into lottery territory, and Tampa Bay and Winipeg could rise to bubble status.

Among the lottery contenders, I see a lot of parity and I think the difference will come down to luck. 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th. It's all the same to me, so I'm predicting a 13th place finish for the Habs.

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We lost a lot of close games last year. Sure, luck could swing our way again (particularly if we can improve in the shootout), but we also had all three of our top-line forwards post career years of over 60 points. Will that happen again? It might, but I have my doubts. Historically, Cole has had trouble staying healthy -- last season was an anomaly. If he misses any significant length of time with an injury, that line's production will drop across the board. Then there's the Markov enigma, the Bourque reclamation project, the Kaberle wait-and-see, and of course, Gomez. A LOT of things have to go right for us this season if we're to make the playoffs. I'm not holding my breath.

I'd be stunned if Cole posted numbers comparable to last year. Patches and DD though are still young, so while they had career years there's a solid chance they can repeat or improve on their level of play. Though your point about decrease production from Cole affecting the rest of the line is certainly relevant. Hard to argue with the other question marks too, but a lot of them seemingly can't do any worse then their disastrous seasons last year.

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Guest archey

i'd say we're at the point that someone needs to draw a penalty and i haven't got a clue as to who we can rely on. ever

pretty good roster, but let's get a line up....

doan for a year?

i really don't know though....

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I don't think Cole is somebody we have to worry about just yet. Maybe in another year or so we'll start to see a decrease in production.

It's not a decrease so much as a peak. Cole matched his NHL best for points last year (61) and set a career high for goals (35). Generally, he's more of a 50-something-point, 25-goal player. Expecting him to continue at his 11-12 pace, particularly when he had the good fortune to not miss a single game, is unrealistic. That's not even factoring the eventual age drop-off.

Banking on all three players on the first line to post up 60+ points is a bit of a gamble.

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I rate the Eastern Conference as follows:

Stanley Cup Contenders

New York

Philadelphia

Pittsburgh

Washington

Boston

Bubble Teams

Carolina

Buffalo

Florida

Ottawa

New Jersey

Lottery Contenders

Long Island

Toronto

Montreal

Tampa Bay

Winipeg

Uncertainties:

Washington could decline to bubble team, Florida and Ottawa could fall into lottery territory, and Tampa Bay and Winipeg could rise to bubble status.

Among the lottery contenders, I see a lot of parity and I think the difference will come down to luck. 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th. It's all the same to me, so I'm predicting a 13th place finish for the Habs.

Philadelphia a contender? Good one.

All these assessments of Montreal as a lottery team are funny, because it took awful injuries and a LOT of bad luck for them to be a lottery team last year, and the last year they were in the division race for a lot of the season and didn't have Cole or Pacioretty (for most of the year) and Gorges missed the 2nd half as well. Why anyone thinks they'll be a lottery team again is beyond me. But then when people are calling Philadelphia a cup contender why would anything else they say be a good prediction?

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It's not a decrease so much as a peak. Cole matched his NHL best for points last year (61) and set a career high for goals (35). Generally, he's more of a 50-something-point, 25-goal player. Expecting him to continue at his 11-12 pace, particularly when he had the good fortune to not miss a single game, is unrealistic. That's not even factoring the eventual age drop-off.

Banking on all three players on the first line to post up 60+ points is a bit of a gamble.

Fine, lets say Cole drops down in production some.

But what about the fact that Gionta provided 8 goals for this team? Or that between Bourque and Cammalleri's roster spot they got 14 goals? Or that Plekanec didn't hit 20 goals for the first time in 5 seasons? Or that after hitting 14 in his rookie season Subban had just 7 goals last year?

How about the fact that Pacioretty missed 3 games from suspension and admitted that he was fatigued at times over the season? And still got 33 goals?

How about the possibility of a much improved bottom 6, both in terms of consistency and overall play? Colby Armstrong has seasons of 22 goals and 15. Prust had 13 goals 2 seasons ago.

All people do is focus on the negatives while completely ignoring the possibility of positive things happening.

"Oh Cole will obviously not match last years numbers, so that's 10 or so goals lost that won't be made up by anyone else"

It's really bizarre.

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Fine, lets say Cole drops down in production some.

But what about the fact that Gionta provided 8 goals for this team? Or that between Bourque and Cammalleri's roster spot they got 14 goals? Or that Plekanec didn't hit 20 goals for the first time in 5 seasons? Or that after hitting 14 in his rookie season Subban had just 7 goals last year?

How about the fact that Pacioretty missed 3 games from suspension and admitted that he was fatigued at times over the season? And still got 33 goals?

How about the possibility of a much improved bottom 6, both in terms of consistency and overall play? Colby Armstrong has seasons of 22 goals and 15. Prust had 13 goals 2 seasons ago.

All people do is focus on the negatives while completely ignoring the possibility of positive things happening.

"Oh Cole will obviously not match last years numbers, so that's 10 or so goals lost that won't be made up by anyone else"

It's really bizarre.

And against those counterfactuals, as I mentioned earlier, we have to gamble on Markov's health and ability to perform like his pre-injury self, Kaberle halting two years of steep decline into a third-pairing PP specialist, Bourque doing something to justify four more years, and of course, the Gomez black hole.

Some fans are acting as if the positives from last year will repeat, carte blanche, while everything that went wrong for us will go right. What I'm suggesting is that there are a lot of questions hanging over this team, and moreover, a lot of really big questions.

In terms of specifics:

Part of the reason why Plekanec didn't hit 20 goals last season is because he played with 100 different linemates in a checking role. We have to bank on Gionta and whoever fills the other wing spot staying healthy enough to give Tomas a shot at 20 goals.

Prust had 13 goals two years ago? Okay. Two years ago, Scott Gomez was actually a productive player and Tomas Kaberle fetched a first-round draft pick in a trade. A lot can happen in two years.

Colby Armstrong is not going to score 22 goals from the third line. There are only so many minutes, and so many prime offensive minutes, to go around.

The D corps is paper-thin and not even top quality on paper. After Subban, there's a huge drop-off, and an aging Francis Bouillon isn't going to make things right.

To sum up, I am not saying we are definitely going to finish in the bottom-five in the conference, but a lot of things have to break our way for us to make the playoffs.

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And against those counterfactuals, as I mentioned earlier, we have to gamble on Markov's health and ability to perform like his pre-injury self, Kaberle halting two years of steep decline into a third-pairing PP specialist, Bourque doing something to justify four more years, and of course, the Gomez black hole.

Some fans are acting as if the positives from last year will repeat, carte blanche, while everything that went wrong for us will go right. What I'm suggesting is that there are a lot of questions hanging over this team, and moreover, a lot of really big questions.

In terms of specifics:

Part of the reason why Plekanec didn't hit 20 goals last season is because he played with 100 different linemates in a checking role. We have to bank on Gionta and whoever fills the other wing spot staying healthy enough to give Tomas a shot at 20 goals.

Prust had 13 goals two years ago? Okay. Two years ago, Scott Gomez was actually a productive player and Tomas Kaberle fetched a first-round draft pick in a trade. A lot can happen in two years.

Colby Armstrong is not going to score 22 goals from the third line. There are only so many minutes, and so many prime offensive minutes, to go around.

The D corps is paper-thin and not even top quality on paper. After Subban, there's a huge drop-off, and an aging Francis Bouillon isn't going to make things right.

To sum up, I am not saying we are definitely going to finish in the bottom-five in the conference, but a lot of things have to break our way for us to make the playoffs.

It's not as simplistic as some make it out to be, we lost x number of goals but the new cast will score x number so we'll be better! There's plenty of variables. Gionta scoring 30 goals could negatively impact guys on the 1st line and the 3rd line, there's only 1 puck and there's especially only so many OZone starts, PP minutes ect. Also we talk about Gionta getting healthy, there's a strong chance we will lose key players to man games again.

Do I think we can be better? Yes but right now I see a team that, if things break well competes for 8th and more than likely is a 10th-13th place team. The D is weak, we have 2 sure fire top 4 guys. Subban a 1-2, and Gorges who is a strict 4. Markov, we just don't know. Kaberle, it's pretty rare that a Dman slides as far as he has at his age and than bounces back, we'll see but there's not much reason for optimism beyond a PP specialist, 3rd pairing guy. The rest are 5-6 guys at this point.

For all the man games we lost, the only really key long term injuries were Markov (always hurt) and Gionta. Plekanec, Desharnais, Pacioretty, Cole, Subban, Price were all healthy for the most part. I'm not prepared to say things will be better in that regard.

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And against those counterfactuals, as I mentioned earlier, we have to gamble on Markov's health and ability to perform like his pre-injury self, Kaberle halting two years of steep decline into a third-pairing PP specialist, Bourque doing something to justify four more years, and of course, the Gomez black hole.

Some fans are acting as if the positives from last year will repeat, carte blanche, while everything that went wrong for us will go right. What I'm suggesting is that there are a lot of questions hanging over this team, and moreover, a lot of really big questions.

In terms of specifics:

Part of the reason why Plekanec didn't hit 20 goals last season is because he played with 100 different linemates in a checking role. We have to bank on Gionta and whoever fills the other wing spot staying healthy enough to give Tomas a shot at 20 goals.

Prust had 13 goals two years ago? Okay. Two years ago, Scott Gomez was actually a productive player and Tomas Kaberle fetched a first-round draft pick in a trade. A lot can happen in two years.

Colby Armstrong is not going to score 22 goals from the third line. There are only so many minutes, and so many prime offensive minutes, to go around.

The D corps is paper-thin and not even top quality on paper. After Subban, there's a huge drop-off, and an aging Francis Bouillon isn't going to make things right.

To sum up, I am not saying we are definitely going to finish in the bottom-five in the conference, but a lot of things have to break our way for us to make the playoffs.

Never said Armstrong would score 22 goals, but that's a guy who can pot goals in the bottom 6. Just like Prust.

I don't see the defence as paper-thin at all, Subban is a legitimate number 1 d-man, Gorges is one of the leagues best shutdown/defensive d-men, between Markov and Kaberle they have awesome PMD veterans, Bouillon is a warrior who will provide veteran stability (if he sucks so much someone explain why he was playing consistently in Nashville in the playoffs) and Emelin and Diaz both have very solid elements to their game and the chance that they improve a great deal in their second professional season in North America.

I'm really not sure what you're talking about for Kaberle and his 2 years of steep decline. 2 seasons ago he had 47 points in the regular season and while he wasn't great in the playoffs with Boston he did still tie for the scoring lead for d-men for them. Kaberle has his flaws but he's a great pMD, it's hilarious that people think one poor season on 2 teams that were both basically lottery teams that somehow he's been on a "2 year steep decline"

Bourque doesn't even get paid that much and can provide size, speed and hitting ability. With the right coaching if he can be around a 20 goal guy next year he'll be a positive member of this team.

There's actually not a lot of things that need to break right for the Habs to make the playoffs next year at all. And, if you want to go that angle you can say the same thing about a big majority of teams in the East too.

Here's something people seem to forget...when Martin was coaching the team was nowehre near a lotto team, the free fall only started once the clearly overwhelmed Cunneyworth took over. Just on coaching alone this team will be in the playoff race next year

IF some luck goes the Habs way in terms of health and durability there's absolutely no reason why the Habs won't be in the division race throughout the season.

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It's not as simplistic as some make it out to be, we lost x number of goals but the new cast will score x number so we'll be better! There's plenty of variables. Gionta scoring 30 goals could negatively impact guys on the 1st line and the 3rd line, there's only 1 puck and there's especially only so many OZone starts, PP minutes ect. Also we talk about Gionta getting healthy, there's a strong chance we will lose key players to man games again.

Do I think we can be better? Yes but right now I see a team that, if things break well competes for 8th and more than likely is a 10th-13th place team. The D is weak, we have 2 sure fire top 4 guys. Subban a 1-2, and Gorges who is a strict 4. Markov, we just don't know. Kaberle, it's pretty rare that a Dman slides as far as he has at his age and than bounces back, we'll see but there's not much reason for optimism beyond a PP specialist, 3rd pairing guy. The rest are 5-6 guys at this point.

For all the man games we lost, the only really key long term injuries were Markov (always hurt) and Gionta. Plekanec, Desharnais, Pacioretty, Cole, Subban, Price were all healthy for the most part. I'm not prepared to say things will be better in that regard.

Gomez missed half of the year, Moen missed 30+ games, Diaz also had injury problems, so did Campoli who was supposed to shore up the depth on defence.

You can say that Gomez sucks, but he had 38 points the previous season and only 11 this year. That's a huge drop

You're also severely underplaying the importance of Gionta's injury. That took Plekanec's best winger away, one of the teams better 2 way guys, one of the most consistent guys and their captain.

Also, you like the other fellow seem to be mistaken on Kaberle, he's had one poor season and it was spent sharing time between 2 poor teams. He had 47 points 2 seasons ago and was a regular playing d-man on the cup winning team.

Emelin and Diaz are both going to be more acclimatized to the NHL and in both cases they could see their games goto new levels.

Your comment about Gionta scoring 30 goals potentially being a negative impact on other players on the team <edit>. Neither Cole nor Pacioretty will have their minutes negatively impacted from Gionta playing by much, if at all, and the 3rd line outside of Moen didn't produce much offence at all on the wing (well Kostitsyn was decent but the coaches misused him completely) and there's nothing Gionta does that will negatively affect those guys.

There are minutes to be filled on any given night, and when you lose a guy like Gionta you need to fill his minutes with guys who should be playing lower minutes and as a result you weaken your line up throughout.

So if a guy like Gionta comes back healthy and productive, then that makes the rest of the line up stronger throughout, and not just in the lower lines...but in the (possible) number 1 line of Pacio-DD-Cole because having a stronger 2nd line makes it harder to defend than a team that has just one strong line.

I think it's funny <edit> that somehow Gionta scoring 30 goals next year would be detrimental to the rest of the team.

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