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Corsi - http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/7/16/4376378/fancy-stat-summer-school-corsi

Fenwick - http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2013/7/17/4520794/fancy-stat-summer-school-fenwick

Basically what they are is a +/- type stat that uses shot attempts (including missed and blocked shots for corsi, and blocked shots aren't included for fenwick) in place of goal totals. The logic is that it vastly expands the sample size of events to analyze players, because the problem with using goals is that there's a lot of luck involved in it (think about how many goals are created off of cheap bounces or bad calls). The best teams in the league (Chicago, LA, Boston, St. Louis, etc) are always at the top of the corsi/fenwick charts. It measures how much your team possesses the puck, the more you have the puck, the more likely you are to score or get that lucky bounce.

The Habs were a top 10 team last year by these metrics, and were bottom 5 the year before when they were in the bottom of the conference, and are in the bottom 10 this year. It's seen in Therrien's system which involves chip and chase and essentially giving away the puck, as well as players like Murray and Emelin who are bleeding shots against continuing to get play time.

There are other factors of course, but as a general rule the best teams tend to be good possession teams, and the bad teams tend not to be. For example, Team Canada was utterly dominant possession wise, there's a lot of talk about how they played good defense but it's frankly a lie and bad analysis. The reason Canada was so dominant on both ends of the ice was because the other team simply never had the puck long enough. Team Canada continually pressured the other team and they were constantly on the attack.

The Habs played a similar style last season, and unfortunately have gotten away from it this year. Even in the playoffs when the narrative was that the Habs couldn't handle the Senators big defence, the Habs continued to outshoot and outplay the Sens. The difference was goaltending, Price played horribly and Anderson was excellent. We were on the other side of that when we beat the Capitals.

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Although I couldn't bear to watch the third period, the first two didn't seem to have an inordinate amount of dump and chase.

I was going to try to keep track but my vision was blocked with tears.

Was anyone taking note of dumping versus carrying?

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Although I couldn't bear to watch the third period, the first two didn't seem to have an inordinate amount of dump and chase.

I was going to try to keep track but my vision was blocked with tears.

Was anyone taking note of dumping versus carrying?

Aside from the dump and chase, we are also chipping the puck around, rather than moving it in a coordinated fashion. You kind of have to keep an eye on both. Watch how our defense is moving the puck in our own zone. Many "passes" go just past the next available teammate, allowing the opposing players to get to the puck first. Many of our zone exits are the result of chips off the boards to the neutral zone. This results in the opposing team gaining more possession time, and also increased numbers of icings.

I felt our defense was given more leeway last night to move the puck, but there's no real way to objectionably quantify it. It created breakaways on a couple of occasions.

I would like to see some sort of passing statistic, which quantifies the number of times a team intentionally releases the puck, and how often they retained possession by having another teammate gain control of that puck.

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Although I couldn't bear to watch the third period, the first two didn't seem to have an inordinate amount of dump and chase.

I was going to try to keep track but my vision was blocked with tears.

Was anyone taking note of dumping versus carrying?

I didn't get to see much of the second half of the game but the first period was one of the best periods we've played all year. Lots of controlled zone entries, aggression in the neutral zone etc.

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One thing I did notice in retrospect was how Booins defended on the power play.

They pressured the Habs D , not letting them get set up for a shot.

While habs sat back in the box.

I wonder if this is what Booins do for all teams or just good

coaching by Julien ?

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  • 4 weeks later...

Not quite sure where else to post this, but it's a pretty good read by Tyler Dellow.

The crux of the article is skill vs toughness and it has some interesting, candid quotes from Dallas Eakins who sounds like a guy grappling with the fact he may be in the Matrix.

http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=6884

It's interesting to hear him speak like that, especially since he's actually in the position to make those decisions. And especially since he's still playing Fraser (even though the shift chart in the article seems to indicate that he knows that Fraser's not a great defenceman).

I mean it's easy for us to sit at home and to scream at Therrien about how Douglas Murray is getting killed and how Raphael Diaz was underused, but for us there're no other factors involved. What happens if Therrien sits Murray, puts Diaz in and then we lose five straight. Maybe in one of those losses Diaz gets burned for a goal in a way that looks 'soft'. For us we can just look at the stats and say "Well despite the final scores our possession numbers have actually been quite a bit better. Our shooting % is down and Carey's had a rough couple of games, but overall the underlying change has been positive and it should all even out in the end."

And that's probably all true!

But now look at that same sequence of events from the point of view of the coach. You can imagine him going to talk to his GM: "You've taken out the proven defensive defenseman that I got for you in the off-season to replace him with a guy who doesn't even hit, and look! You're getting scored on all over the ice!" Just try mumbling something about PDO when your job is on the line. There's a real inertia in the league when it comes to this stuff. Even if you want to be progressive, like Eakins seems to be leaning towards, it's up to you to be able to prove that your way is better than the status quo. That's not an easy thing to do.

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But now look at that same sequence of events from the point of view of the coach. You can imagine him going to talk to his GM: "You've taken out the proven defensive defenseman that I got for you in the off-season to replace him with a guy who doesn't even hit, and look! You're getting scored on all over the ice!" Just try mumbling something about PDO when your job is on the line. There's a real inertia in the league when it comes to this stuff. Even if you want to be progressive, like Eakins seems to be leaning towards, it's up to you to be able to prove that your way is better than the status quo. That's not an easy thing to do.

Your post is fantastic overall, Manatee, but this is the part that really sticks with me. It's dead on accurate, and really the core issue of the stats debate.

And for the bolded part especially, it's basically an impossible thing to do when, even if you do have proof that your way might be better than the status quo, your proof is more than likely going to fall on deaf ears, except for a few organizations who really seem to get it. And unfortunately for Dallas Eakins, Edmonton is not one of those organizations. And perhaps fortunately for Therrien, Montreal doesn't seem to be one of those organizations either, though there are signs that give me hope.

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It's interesting to hear him speak like that, especially since he's actually in the position to make those decisions. And especially since he's still playing Fraser (even though the shift chart in the article seems to indicate that he knows that Fraser's not a great defenceman).

I mean it's easy for us to sit at home and to scream at Therrien about how Douglas Murray is getting killed and how Raphael Diaz was underused, but for us there're no other factors involved. What happens if Therrien sits Murray, puts Diaz in and then we lose five straight. Maybe in one of those losses Diaz gets burned for a goal in a way that looks 'soft'. For us we can just look at the stats and say "Well despite the final scores our possession numbers have actually been quite a bit better. Our shooting % is down and Carey's had a rough couple of games, but overall the underlying change has been positive and it should all even out in the end."

And that's probably all true!

But now look at that same sequence of events from the point of view of the coach. You can imagine him going to talk to his GM: "You've taken out the proven defensive defenseman that I got for you in the off-season to replace him with a guy who doesn't even hit, and look! You're getting scored on all over the ice!" Just try mumbling something about PDO when your job is on the line. There's a real inertia in the league when it comes to this stuff. Even if you want to be progressive, like Eakins seems to be leaning towards, it's up to you to be able to prove that your way is better than the status quo. That's not an easy thing to do.

There are shades of the way Therrien manages Murray and the way Eakins manages Fraser. When you look at the easy zone starts Murray gets, Therrien seems to know he isn't very good. But the old school mentality he has makes him believe he needs that size and toughness in the line up regardless. That's why I was and am really rooting for Tinordi, but because I think the only the way Murray is permanently out of the rotation is if someone else can bring those things that Therrien perceives to be really important.

As far as your philosophy on the coach's point of view, I really don't think that's the case here (ie: needing to play Murray to appease the GM who brought him in). If anything, the 'tough' guys brought in seems to have been done for Therrien given how much he values them, while a skill guy like Briere was massively under-utilized for most of the year despite being one of the most productive forwards on the team for the ice time he was given.

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As far as your philosophy on the coach's point of view, I really don't think that's the case here (ie: needing to play Murray to appease the GM who brought him in). If anything, the 'tough' guys brought in seems to have been done for Therrien given how much he values them, while a skill guy like Briere was massively under-utilized for most of the year despite being one of the most productive forwards on the team for the ice time he was given.

I guess I should have been more clear - I wasn't actually saying that this was the case with Therrien specifically, but rather I was using an example from our team to illustrate my point since it was one that everyone would be familiar with. Having said that, I'd love it if Therrien was secretly a forward-thinking genius just waiting for his chance to break out :lol:

Edit: Upon re-reading your post I just realized that you didn't actually say that you thought I was saying what I just said I didn't say.

...or something. I think it's time for me to get back to work :lol:

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Really like the comment on Dellow's article about who the talking heads are in each sports. To paraphrase:

NBA - Shaq, Charles Barkley

NFL - Troy Aikman, Ray Lewis

NHL - Nick Kypreos, PJ Stock, Jamie McLennan

There's a big difference between those lists of players.

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You know what stat I'd love to see tracked would be what I'll call Zone Time. Basically, time in the offensive zone and time in the defensive zone. Neutral zone time would be ignored. You would then break it down into a percentage between the two teams. This would all be at even-strength to make it useful.

I'd keep it simple for tracking purposes and to remove any bias, and simply use the actual location of the puck in a given and how long it's there. To get what I mean, picture a couple guys with a stop watch each responsible for one team's offensive zone. When the puck enters the zone, he starts the clock, when he leaves the zone he stops it. Alternatively it's probably even easier/more accurate with a recording of the game on a computer afterwards.

You'd then have something like:

MTL: 62.5% zone time

TOR: 37.5% zone time

Which could mean the puck was in Toronto's end (at even strength) for 25 minutes and Montreal's end for 15 minutes (remainder in the neutral zone and/or special teams).

It's not perfect but the idea would be to get another measure for possession to use in conjection with something like Fenwick. My gut says you'd see a pretty high correlation with the top teams and positive Zone Time. I think it'd be a pretty accessible stat for the non-fancy stat crowd as well.

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Someone at Pension Plan Puppets (a Leafs blog) already did the same type of thing as you're thinking BCH, though not exactly. I think the result especially is the same.

He basically time the amount of time the Leafs had the puck, and compared it to their Corsi. The correlation is quite staggering actually. I figured it would be strong, but not as strong as it actually is.

TOA_vs._Corsi_medium.png

You can read the full article if you want (here)

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Yeah, that's really neat PP2009. It's just one example on one team, sure, but it's encouraging to see how well Fenwick and Corsi hold up as actual measures of possession.

Maybe it will win over a few more into the statistics fold :P

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  • 2 weeks later...

Alright, so I am working on data collection for a new stats project of mine, and I need some help. I need to get data from about the 40, 50, and 60 game mark for each team this season, and the fenwick data is easy enough to get. I haven't been able to find a game-by-game breakdown for PDO (cumulative, not rolling 10 game) for each team. I can view everything currently, but I can't go "back in time" and get a real good snapshot of, say, the Phoenix Coyotes after they had played 50 games. Has anybody seen a website where I can get such a thing?

I have all the possession data a guy could ever want, but PDO, especially if it's broken down into shooting and save percentage, seems to be surprisingly hard to come by. I would be SUPER grateful if anyone had any resources to share.

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Alright, so I am working on data collection for a new stats project of mine, and I need some help. I need to get data from about the 40, 50, and 60 game mark for each team this season, and the fenwick data is easy enough to get. I haven't been able to find a game-by-game breakdown for PDO (cumulative, not rolling 10 game) for each team. I can view everything currently, but I can't go "back in time" and get a real good snapshot of, say, the Phoenix Coyotes after they had played 50 games. Has anybody seen a website where I can get such a thing?

I have all the possession data a guy could ever want, but PDO, especially if it's broken down into shooting and save percentage, seems to be surprisingly hard to come by. I would be SUPER grateful if anyone had any resources to share.

I can't think of anything that's going to give you that cumulative amount at specific points in time. Game by game obviously gives you shooting percentage + save percentage but then it becomes absolutely insane to add up all those games for each team. I take it you've tried extraskater, have you looked at behind the net?

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Alright, so I am working on data collection for a new stats project of mine, and I need some help. I need to get data from about the 40, 50, and 60 game mark for each team this season, and the fenwick data is easy enough to get. I haven't been able to find a game-by-game breakdown for PDO (cumulative, not rolling 10 game) for each team. I can view everything currently, but I can't go "back in time" and get a real good snapshot of, say, the Phoenix Coyotes after they had played 50 games. Has anybody seen a website where I can get such a thing?

I have all the possession data a guy could ever want, but PDO, especially if it's broken down into shooting and save percentage, seems to be surprisingly hard to come by. I would be SUPER grateful if anyone had any resources to share.

Would you have an easier time finding shots for/against and comparing them with the final game scores? Slap them into an Excel spreadsheet and you could get your PDO no problem. I suspect the more difficult stats to find in an easily accessible format might actually be the final scores.

The only thing that would change things would be empty net goals, but you could either just make some sort of assumption or go and manually remove them.

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I can't think of anything that's going to give you that cumulative amount at specific points in time. Game by game obviously gives you shooting percentage + save percentage but then it becomes absolutely insane to add up all those games for each team. I take it you've tried extraskater, have you looked at behind the net?

Re-reading your original post now, I noticed you said you can't find a game by game breakdown for PDO. Extra skater does have this for each team, they just don't do the cumulative calculation for you. If you're willing to you excel (as suggested in the post above) you can probably get there.

This would give you the data you need to make it happen: http://www.extraskater.com/team/montreal-canadiens/2013/gamelog

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Re-reading your original post now, I noticed you said you can't find a game by game breakdown for PDO. Extra skater does have this for each team, they just don't do the cumulative calculation for you. If you're willing to you excel (as suggested in the post above) you can probably get there.

This would give you the data you need to make it happen: http://www.extraskater.com/team/montreal-canadiens/2013/gamelog

Yeah, I think this is about as good as it gets. In theory, there is a way to import data from extraskater to excel without having to manually enter data, but I don't know how. I'll ask some computer science friends when I get back on campus, maybe we can figure something out. I'll have time this May, but probably not that much time. I'm going to send the guy who started extraskater a message, maybe he has something kicking around I can use.

It's a little frustrating, because all I want is a cumulative PDO for each team at the 40, 50, 60 game mark of the season. It doesn't sound like something I would have to do. When I came up with this idea a couple months ago, I just assumed that it would be available on extraskater by now. If I had bothered to check when it made sense, I would have had this problem solved by now :lol:

Thanks for all the help guys. I really appreciate it. Keep an eye out for a nerdy, overanalyzed fanpost on EOTP towards the end of May!

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But will it have pretty pictures? I'm not interested unless there's pretty pictures.

If by pretty you mean "it will make the Habs look good and Boston look bad", no.

If by pretty you mean "it will make Toronto look bad", then yes.

And I will add a picture of a scantily clad woman in the background of every dataset if you so desire. Can't have your readers getting bored. :lol:

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