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2016-17 State of the Habs


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Guest Regis2

. Before this season we had been doing well getting stronger each year last season was a blip in my opinion.

Last year we lost Carey Price .

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Guest Regis2

CP is back

Muller " should " help the PP and hopefully knock some sense into MT then next year should be better , lots better .

How much we'll see

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good read. MB wants to change the culture . Well culture doesn't win hockey games, talent does

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-not-part-of-the-culture-club-1.525525

I don't agree with Cullen completely though... I definitely think talent and analytics matter but culture and the those unmeasurable variables do count for SOMETHING. To me, anyone who completely dismissed one or the other has got it wrong.

I do think our current regime values culture far too much though

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I don't agree with Cullen completely though... I definitely think talent and analytics matter but culture and the those unmeasurable variables do count for SOMETHING. To me, anyone who completely dismissed one or the other has got it wrong.

I do think our current regime values culture far too much though

Culture's not for nothing, and it's not useless, but I feel like the current Habs administration puts the cart before the horse. Winning doesn't come from good culture, good culture comes from winning.

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Culture's not for nothing, and it's not useless, but I feel like the current Habs administration puts the cart before the horse. Winning doesn't come from good culture, good culture comes from winning.

This. Where were the rumours of fighting in the dressing room in November this season? Literally everybody in and close to the organization said it was one of the best locker rooms they'd ever seen; DSP was in tears over being traded and stated this also. If the team is still not getting along while they are winning, then deal with the problem.

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This. Where were the rumours of fighting in the dressing room in November this season? Literally everybody in and close to the organization said it was one of the best locker rooms they'd ever seen; DSP was in tears over being traded and stated this also. If the team is still not getting along while they are winning, then deal with the problem.

Unfortunately I think that is what they feel they did with the Subban trade. I suppose time will tell if it helps that issue or not but I have to feel they could have found another route! I strongly feel having Muller around would have helped a lot! MT was a better coach when Gallant was there to buffer him from the players and I think Muller will do an even better job at that. It is a shame we won't get to see what might have been on that front but we have what we have now and Webber is a winner too and good in the room from what we all hear. time will tell.

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Webber is a winner too

Weber has one Memorial Cup, one Olympic gold, and one World Championship gold over Subban. Weber's never played in a conference final, whereas Subban has played in two. He's never won a Norris, which Subban has. Weber was on one World Juniors gold team, whereas Subban was on two. At the NHL level—which seems more important to me, personally—Subban has clearly already had a better career. So, I'm not really sure what "winner" means in this context.

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There are some flaws in the logic of the above posts:

1. Yes, the Cup is statistically harder to win than it was when there was a 6-team league. But that doesn't mean you should accept having a team that's not competitive. I posted this before, but our record from December onwards gave us a winning percentage that was to my knowledge lower than any team has had since we last won the Cup, including the expansion franchises. It's not just about winning the Cup, it's about how far below average we sunk last year.

2. Just because there are now 30 teams, doesn't mean we should aim to win a Cup every 30 years. In fact, if we start the clock at 1993, then if we were completely average, we should have one Cup in the next 30 years but that Cup should come around 15 years in, it doesn't mean we have to wait until the 30th year to win it... I also don't see us making a run in the next 7 years with this management team.

3. If we're going to go hard after statistical averages, then we should have a 1 in 15 or 1 in 16 chance of making the Cup finals. We haven't done that since 1993 despite the law of averages saying we should have done it.

4. There are 30 teams now, but there weren't 30 teams for the entire period of 1993 to date, so over part of that period, our odds at a Cup were technically 1 in 23 or 1 in 25 or so on.

5. Not all teams are created equal. The Habs are a cap team. They have deep pockets and big revenues and the ability to make themselves more competitive than a lot of other squads. Many teams can't spend that much, so in theory our odds should be better than those teams' chances if we managed our team efficiently.

6. Show me a line-up that has Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Plekanec, Markov, Petry, and so on and it should be better than a league average team. It should not be a lottery team, even without Price. As Bergevin said, the team would have made the playoffs if it played ,500 hockey without Carey, but it didn't. And that includes getting overtime losses for points, so you don't even have to play actual .500 hockey to get to .500. This team blew it last year, and the organization is pretending it's okay to just move on and assume the problem will fix itself by adding grit and not addressing the coaching/systems issues.

I'm not asking to win a Cup every year. I'm asking the team to stop ignoring blatantly obvious problems like our poor possession, lac of a system, and special team woes created by poor coaching. I'm asking for better personnel deployment that doesn't see Flynn and Byron playing ahead of Galchenyuk and Semin and McCarron, or Markov playing more than Subban, or Murray ahead of Beaulieu. If the team is going to make these awful decisions, then it's going to get criticized. If the team made smarter decisions and played hard and came up short of a Cup, then fine. But it's a bigger problem to know you have the assets to be a good team and then see those chances wasted on bad coaching and a blind eye to that bad coaching.

Vegas has us at 12-1 to get there and 25 to 1 to win (almost the 30 to 1). I think we're much better than we were at the start of even last year. This year I say we're 7 to 1 to get there as only Pitssburgh and Washington are in our same calibre although Florida has improved with their youth too. As far as winning I'd take the 25 to 1 as I think we're about a 10 to 1 to win it all.

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Weber has one Memorial Cup, one Olympic gold, and one World Championship gold over Subban. Weber's never played in a conference final, whereas Subban has played in two. He's never won a Norris, which Subban has. Weber was on one World Juniors gold team, whereas Subban was on two. At the NHL level—which seems more important to me, personally—Subban has clearly already had a better career. So, I'm not really sure what "winner" means in this context.

Really! do you think you are perhaps getting a little sensitive on this! I never said PK was not a winner I never compared what level of winner either one of them was. come on man are you saying Webber is not a winner?
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Fair enough, I don't feel the same way. to me there are players who are not winners they have the talent as most do to make it this far they just float around and are out of the league fairly quickly then there are guys like Saku who never win anything but I sure feel they are winners. it is a question of perspective I guess. some people don't care if they win or lose as long as they get paid people like Subban and Webber care a lot.

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I think the point here is that Weber has been given the title of winner and great leader without there being any actual proof of that. It's one thing to say Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews are winners. They've won 3 Cups in the past 7 years, they've played clutch hockey in the regular season and in the playoffs when it counted. You can actually see and measure the contributions they've made on the ice. Weber has won some international titles, but so too have a lot of Canadian players. I certainly don't think of Jamie Langenbrunner or Chris Kunitz as a great leader or a perennial winner and those two guys have won more than Weber.

Everyone is allowed to have an opinion of what leadership and character skills a player brings to the table. And everyone can value those skills in different ways. For example, Fan A might think Weber is a great leader and believe that increases his value. Fan B might think he's not such a great leader. And Fan C might think he's got great leadership skills but doesn't believe that translates into on-ice team success. The bottom line is that we can't prove or disprove any of those things because it's almost impossible to measure the effect of said character on winning. I think the most important point made is that we toss around terms like grit, leadership, character, chemistry and so on, but a lot of the time, we do that about teams and players who have won. It's hard to tell what's the chicken and what's the egg. I've used the prime example of Phil Kessel, who won a Cup this year in Pittsburgh but who had previously been labeled a bad team player and a loser. Well now he has a Cup, and he was a key reason why his team won. He was clutch. In fact, I believe he's the active leader among NHL players in production per ice time in the playoffs. So is Phil Kessel a winner or is Shea Weber a winner or is PK Subban a winner? If we're talking about actual winning at an NHL level that you can measure, Kessel comes ahead of Subban who comes ahead of Weber. But for whatever reason, the rhetoric is that Weber is more of a winner than Subban, who is more of a winner than Kessel. So what's the truth?

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From The Hockey News, a fan poll of how much confidence people have in each team's management group... the Habs, sadly, rank 29th of 30 teams in the league, ahead of only the Canucks and Jim Benning.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/how-much-confidence-does-each-nhl-fan-base-have-in-their-front-office-a-ranking-of-all-30-teams/

In specific categories, the Habs rank 29th in roster building, trades, and team vision. They rank 26th in cap management and drafting, and 27th in free agency. Now some might think this poll isn't accurate, but look at the other teams at the bottom too: the Canucks, the Rangers, the Jackets, the Oilers, the Bruins... these are teams I would also rank near the bottom, so it seems pretty legit to me.

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From The Hockey News, a fan poll of how much confidence people have in each team's management group... the Habs, sadly, rank 29th of 30 teams in the league, ahead of only the Canucks and Jim Benning.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/how-much-confidence-does-each-nhl-fan-base-have-in-their-front-office-a-ranking-of-all-30-teams/

In specific categories, the Habs rank 29th in roster building, trades, and team vision. They rank 26th in cap management and drafting, and 27th in free agency. Now some might think this poll isn't accurate, but look at the other teams at the bottom too: the Canucks, the Rangers, the Jackets, the Oilers, the Bruins... these are teams I would also rank near the bottom, so it seems pretty legit to me.

Yep I would agree with that as well.

MB "I'm building through the draft."

Trades 2 2nd round picks away for a 3rd liner.

They have no clue what the heck they're doing.

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Guest Regis2

Yep I would agree with that as well.

MB "I'm building through the draft."

Trades 2 2nd round picks away for a 3rd liner.

They have no clue what the heck they're doing.

That 3 rd will be a 2nd liner . Plus he has 2 Cups, character and culture

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https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/did-canadiens-drop-analytics-expert-for-opposing-subban-trade-131706902.html

this is so sad ive come out the other side and i just find it hilarious now.

guys, if you want this job, show up at the habs head office with a paper that looks like this

Ice Time (I.T/60=2.43) fn+/- {per60 possession}

[passes completed/3.856 / 82]

+/-

(SOG/chances+gen{fn-t ^ %>)

= CHARACTER

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Yep I would agree with that as well.

MB "I'm building through the draft."

Trades 2 2nd round picks away for a 3rd liner.

They have no clue what the heck they're doing.

Hey in MB's defense ... he never said building through WHOSE draft choices :P

MB "I'm building through the draft ... other peoples drafts"

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https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/did-canadiens-drop-analytics-expert-for-opposing-subban-trade-131706902.html

this is so sad ive come out the other side and i just find it hilarious now.

guys, if you want this job, show up at the habs head office with a paper that looks like this

Ice Time (I.T/60=2.43) fn+/- {per60 possession}

[passes completed/3.856 / 82]

+/-

(SOG/chances+gen{fn-t ^ %>)

= CHARACTER

LOL. :lol: Yeah. Super depressing that they have let go the guy who - supposedly - made a plea for them to NOT make the Subban trade.

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And I remember well how poorly those teams place for years before they got all the juicy draft picks that made them what they are. There are plenty of ways to look at how things played out for us here in Montreal. after Savard and Demers got canned we went through rookie coaches and Gm's lots of false starts and the team got sold a couple of times. Before this season we had been doing well getting stronger each year last season was a blip in my opinion. I know I will get roasted for that opinion by the group that hates the current group running the team for the various reasons that they do but it is how I see it. I maintain that if we were bottom dwellers for 10 years and loaded up on top notch draft picks like some of the teams that are being used to show how poorly we are doing we would be at the very least as good as they are. imagine if we had just had the the two last #1 draft picks! pretty sure we would be looking pretty good with McDavid and Mattews! this team is dammed to never be able to blow it up and do a draft pick rebuild it will never happen. I think that at the end of the coming season we will be feeling a lot better about our team, although I will still miss the flash that PK brings to the ice I think we are a better team right now and for the next 3-4 years

I certainly hope you're right. -_-

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LOL. :lol: Yeah. Super depressing that they have let go the guy who - supposedly - made a plea for them to NOT make the Subban trade.

I imagine any analytics guy they hire will have the same analytics data on Subban otherwise the analytics community will have a problem. When I coached I used a lot of data done by myself other coaches or players who charted games. I used that data to inform my decisions, but it wasn't the only information I based my choices on. If the analytics is the be all then we can replace alot of coaches right now, but if it is an additional tool that coaches or managers can use to inform decisions then the final decision put in context should not be based on the expertise of one individual (ie. analytics guy). Stats may be a goood indicator of past results, but need not be the sole source for policy and player decisions. Not renewing a contract should not be an issue especially if they have found someone for less money. would we be publishing contract renewals for accountants or other advisors attached to the team?

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So Ramsay and an analytics guy get let go yet SL has consecutive losing seasons in the AHL and he keeps his job and MT and his crew just come off of one of the worst seasons in HABS history and they keep theirs .

We even bring in Frankie B to the development camp

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Great article PP. Just highlights from it:

Well you know what? I love MY Habs but the Habs that I love are a team dedicated to going all the way, to winning, to living up to their motto – No Excuses. What I don’t love is a team dedicated to staying happily in the middle, hopefully making the playoffs, maybe going a round or two if they’re lucky. What I don’t love is a team that isn’t even trying to be an elite National Hockey League team.

My critics usually come back with the same line – ‘Yeah they haven’t won the Cup since ’93 but they’ve done okay. There’s 30 teams in the league, it’s tough to win, blah blah blah.’

Not true. The Habs have not done okay since 1993. They actually have one of the worst playoff records in the league since that miraculous run with Saint Patrick in the spring of 1993.

So let’s have a closer look at that Habs’ playoff record since their last Cup win. First off, the team has missed the post-season eight times out of 22 (not 23, because there were no playoffs in 2005 due to the lock-out). That’s at best mediocre.

There’s also no Stanley Cup wins, as we all know. Okay you could say it’s tough to win the Cup. And it is. But keep in mind that teams were winning the Cup in those years. The Red Wings won four – with a little help from a chap named Scotty Bowman who was run out of our town by the Habs! (I know, I know, Bowman left of his own volition after that glorious run as coach of the Canadiens in the ‘70s but we all know it’s because the team refused to let him become general manager.)

The Blackhawks won three, fairly recently, going from being a crap team to one of the best, with a wee bit of help from the Bowman family once again! The Devils won three, the Avs won two (with a fellow named Patrick Roy who was run out of town by the Habs).

But okay it’s tough to win a Cup. So let’s look at how many appearances in the Stanley Cup final the Habs made since they were last in the final in ’93, an idea suggested to me by reader Mark Sanchini. Oh wait, that’s an easy calculation. Zero. Of teams that were in the league in 1992-1993 – not counting franchises that arrived after that season – there are only four other teams that have not made the Cup final since that year. They are the Winnipeg Jets (who later became the Phoenix/Arizona Coyotes), St. Louis Blues, Toronto Maple Leafs, and New York Islanders.

In other words, Montreal is in the bottom five teams of the league when it comes to making the Cup final. So not only are we not an elite team, we’re not even a middling team.

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I loved the last points of the above article about the value of the franchise and how fan protest is the only way that change can be achieved. As long as Hab fans continue to act like lemmings, the cycle will continue and we will have become an echo of the Maple Leaf legacy of futility ......

The numbers don’t lie. In terms of playoff success, the Habs have been near the bottom of the league for 23 years if they’re ranked with other teams that were in the league in 1992-1993. It’s a terrible record by any definition and is proof that over the course of three different owners – the Molson brewery, George Gillett and the group fronted by Geoff Molson – the team’s hockey operations have been atrociously managed.

Why is that? Because as the team becomes more and more below-average, the company’s profits just keep rising. Gillett bought the Canadiens from the Molson brewery for $275 million in 2001, the Geoff Molson group then spent $575 million to acquire the team from Gillett in 2009 and last fall Forbes estimated that the Canadiens were worth a cool $1.18 billion, making them the second richest franchise in hockey, just below the New York Rangers.

So the Habs have increased in value by over $800 million in 15 years. So where’s the incentive to strive for excellence? It really is the Toronto Maple Leafs all over again.

And there’s only one way this spiral of mediocrity is going to be stopped. It’s going to take a fan protest, not just in reaction to sending Subban to Tennessee but over the fact that the Subban deal is just the latest example of a team that treats its fans with contempt.

The ideal would be for everyone to skip the first home game next fall. But if that’s asking too much, how about, as reader Darrell Brown suggested to me, everyone shows up on opening night dressed in black and refuses to cheer. That’s a good first step.

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