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2016-17 If I Were GM...


BigTed3
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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

There's plenty of good past defensive defensemen who are good overall coaches (Julien, Quenneville, Vignault) and i think there may be more defensmen as coaches than other positions actually (Carlysle, Robinson were norris winners even)  but the bottom line is that they were good coaches (well maybe not Carslyle) first, regardless of their position. Im not convinced there's anyone down on the farm thats a good coach. 

It seems over the years the best coaches have been defensemen or 3rd and 4th line players. Defensemen because they play the position and at the same time they observe the offensive part of the game. 3rd and 4th liners because they spend more time on the bench observing every aspect of what goes on on the ice and what the coaches are doing. That's almost like on the job training. I don't think there has ever been a  star player who hasn't failed as a coach because they have only focused on what they are doing on the ice.

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10 hours ago, maas_art said:

I have a feeling - we shall see - that the oiler's playoffs will come to an end some time in the next round or two because of defensive shortcomings.  If thats the case I think we should be immediately onto the phone with them to talk about how we can help them out with a guy like Weber.

I think Edmonton would absolutely jump at "Chris Pronger Lite" and would offer us one of their centres not named McDavid (draisaitl?) a defenseman (Nurse?) and maybe one more prospect or pick.   

This would allow us to shuffle around our top 6 and defensive corps to look something like this:

Pacioretty - Draisatl - Radulov (Hopefully?)
Lehkonen - Galchenyuk - Gallagher


Nurse - Petry
Markov - Benn
 

I think thats a better top 6 and top 4 than we have now & it allows us to play guys like Danault and Plekanec in our bottom 6 where they are much better suited. 

It won't happen and here's why: when the Habs were "not" shopping Subban around, rumors are that Edmonton and Vancouver were two of the other teams who showed interest in acquiring him. But when they heard the asking price, they apparently told MB they were out. Rumors also seemed to indicate Draisaitl was part of the package MB asked for, and one would have to assume MB asked for a D man as well, be it Klefbom or Nurse or so on. Now if Edmonton didn't want to pay that price for Subban, why would they pay something similar for Weber (who was dealt straight up for Subban)? I think they would show interest in Weber, but I think you would either get a player like RNH or maybe Draisaitl if you were lucky or else you would get a D man like Nurse and another prospect/pick/player but not a top-flight one.

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13 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

It won't happen and here's why: when the Habs were "not" shopping Subban around, rumors are that Edmonton and Vancouver were two of the other teams who showed interest in acquiring him. But when they heard the asking price, they apparently told MB they were out. Rumors also seemed to indicate Draisaitl was part of the package MB asked for, and one would have to assume MB asked for a D man as well, be it Klefbom or Nurse or so on. Now if Edmonton didn't want to pay that price for Subban, why would they pay something similar for Weber (who was dealt straight up for Subban)? I think they would show interest in Weber, but I think you would either get a player like RNH or maybe Draisaitl if you were lucky or else you would get a D man like Nurse and another prospect/pick/player but not a top-flight one.

You might well be right but I think the "mystique of the man mountain" does play a role.  

That said, would you do Weber straight up for Draisaitl?   It would improve our forward group immediately but our d would take a big hit too...  

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I've wondered if George McPhee would do;

 

To Vegas: Alex Galchenyuk, Nathan Beaulieu, 1st 2017, Future considerations

To MTL: Vegas 1st rounder, 2017

 

Your future consideration can be: Take Emelin or Plekanec off our hands via expansion draft.  Go out and draft Rasmussen or Vilardi (your centre with size of the future) 

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50 minutes ago, East_Coast_Juggalo_13 said:

(your centre with size of the future) 

Can you empirically define "size", and why you consider it so important?

Also, what makes you assume two kids who've never played an NHL game and had inferior major junior careers to Galchenyuk will automatically be massively superior NHL players because they're an inch taller?

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6 minutes ago, habs_93 said:

Can you empirically define "size", and why you consider it so important?

Also, what makes you assume two kids who've never played an NHL game and had inferior major junior careers to Galchenyuk will automatically be massively superior NHL players because they're an inch taller?

Not it at all.  I'm more interested in what they can offer in skill.  The size is a tangible we still lack and can still utilize.  We just need it to have more skill.  I'm more just brainstorming ideas for next season's team.  I still think Nick Leddy is our best play in exchange for Galchenyuk if we're going to trade him at all.  Improving the puck moving of our defense is key.  Far too often, we got pinned in our own zone vs. NYR.  We need to be able to break out of our zone better...More consistently.

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10 minutes ago, East_Coast_Juggalo_13 said:

Not it at all.  I'm more interested in what they can offer in skill.  The size is a tangible we still lack and can still utilize.  We just need it to have more skill.  I'm more just brainstorming ideas for next season's team.  I still think Nick Leddy is our best play in exchange for Galchenyuk if we're going to trade him at all.  Improving the puck moving of our defense is key.  Far too often, we got pinned in our own zone vs. NYR.  We need to be able to break out of our zone better...More consistently.

You say "size" is a tangible good, but it isn't. Player height and weight do not correlate to metrics of success. For teams, the bigger/taller teams don't do better in point percentage, and for players it doesn't correlate to primary point production or possession rates, either offensive or defensive. I haven't done it yet, but I suspect a multivariate analysis would show a slight (single-digit percentage, maybe) improvement in defensive rates for bigger players of similar skill levels and age, but how often does a team have a choice between two similar (in terms of production and offensive/defensive measures with predictive value) players of significantly different "size"? Rarely. The choice is almost always between a better player who's 3-4 inches shorter and a worse player who has "size". Teams stuck in 1995 will get the player with "size", and lose, and smart organizations will get the smaller player who's actually better at hockey.

I agree the transition is pretty bad and the defence is uninspiring 5-on-5, but that's only going to get fixed when Weber stops getting handed the majority of our 5-on-5 minutes.

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9 hours ago, maas_art said:

You might well be right but I think the "mystique of the man mountain" does play a role.  

That said, would you do Weber straight up for Draisaitl?   It would improve our forward group immediately but our d would take a big hit too...  

The short answer is yes. The long answer is this:

Weber is a great add to a team wanting to win now, but I don't think he's the focal point of a defence any more, in that I think a D corps needs more than just a Weber to win games. Karlsson goes out an controls the ice. Subban does the same. So does Keith and Doughty. Weber sits back a little more and he doesn't take over the game the way the other guys do. He's also older, and he's on a terrible terrible contract that only seems worse with time. So while he'll be a top-pairing D man for maybe another 2-3 years (maybe a touch longer if he's lucky), his value is going to drop sooner rather than later. I'd rather sell high and get out while we still can. I don't think we have enough here to be a Cup favorite next year, and after that, there's the whole ordeal of having to pay Price and Pacioretty and so on. So while Price always puts us in the conversation, I would jump at the chance to trade a guy who's window is the next 1-3 years for a guy who is really good now but who can also give you a window that's 5-7 years. Chiarelli stated when he traded Hall that he got the lesser player (Larsson) but that it was a better fit for him for team needs, and the same could be true in dealing a guy like Draisaitl for Weber.

The other aspect to consider is Petry. He's not a #1 defenceman but I'd feel comfortable with him being the top-pairing guy on the right side. We'd definitely need to fill a hole on D and acquire another top 2 defenceman, but we'd have the flexibility of going after either a lefty or righty. How to get that guy? You look at a trade using Galchenyuk or Pacioretty or Gallagher or so on as bait. You figure it out, but any trade where you can trade a past-his-prime guy for a guy who is already a great player and will be for longer, I think that's a no-brainer unless you really feel you're a serious Cup candidate in the coming year...

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i was spitballing just now with a fellow habs fan, i threw this out, he said im off my meds. i leave it to your gentle consideration haha

it started with price for seguin. Ill say here if that was on the table I take it all day long.   

get fleury to play goal ....(maybe thats the off my meds part)

Im shopping patchy 100% at this point....2 ideas.  would you do it it for both landeskog and duchene? i would

ill re-float this from earlier in the year....patchy for leddy, bailey and a 1st

or some combination of a d and a lw prospect to replace him and a pick

anything other than what we are gona do, which is have this exact same mediocre team for ten more years

 

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10 minutes ago, jeff33 said:

i was spitballing just now with a fellow habs fan, i threw this out, he said im off my meds. i leave it to your gentle consideration haha

it started with price for seguin. Ill say here if that was on the table I take it all day long.   

get fleury to play goal ....(maybe thats the off my meds part)

Im shopping patchy 100% at this point....2 ideas.  would you do it it for both landeskog and duchene? i would

ill re-float this from earlier in the year....patchy for leddy, bailey and a 1st

or some combination of a d and a lw prospect to replace him and a pick

anything other than what we are gona do, which is have this exact same mediocre team for ten more years

 

Price for Seguin: not in isolation. There would have to be another plan, like signing Bishop or trading for another goalie, not MAF. He'd never be able to handle the pressure here.

Pac for Duche/Land: yes, but Col would never do that.

Pac for Leddy plus: no, Pac has more value than those players.

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8 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Price for Seguin: not in isolation. There would have to be another plan, like signing Bishop or trading for another goalie, not MAF. He'd never be able to handle the pressure here.

Pac for Duche/Land: yes, but Col would never do that.

Pac for Leddy plus: no, Pac has more value than those players.

yes , for sure. I happen to personally like MAF , but absolutely bishop would be absolutely fine with me. 

if pac has more value than that package, maybe col does actually do that. anyway id love to know what we COULD actually get. like i said, lets say maybe you dont like those particular players, but patch for a top 2 d, a very good lw prospect to replace him and a 1st sounds like a great way to start fixing the real problems on this team

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8 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

The short answer is yes. The long answer is this:

Weber is a great add to a team wanting to win now, but I don't think he's the focal point of a defence any more, in that I think a D corps needs more than just a Weber to win games. Karlsson goes out an controls the ice. Subban does the same. So does Keith and Doughty. Weber sits back a little more and he doesn't take over the game the way the other guys do. He's also older, and he's on a terrible terrible contract that only seems worse with time. So while he'll be a top-pairing D man for maybe another 2-3 years (maybe a touch longer if he's lucky), his value is going to drop sooner rather than later. I'd rather sell high and get out while we still can. I don't think we have enough here to be a Cup favorite next year, and after that, there's the whole ordeal of having to pay Price and Pacioretty and so on. So while Price always puts us in the conversation, I would jump at the chance to trade a guy who's window is the next 1-3 years for a guy who is really good now but who can also give you a window that's 5-7 years. Chiarelli stated when he traded Hall that he got the lesser player (Larsson) but that it was a better fit for him for team needs, and the same could be true in dealing a guy like Draisaitl for Weber.

The other aspect to consider is Petry. He's not a #1 defenceman but I'd feel comfortable with him being the top-pairing guy on the right side. We'd definitely need to fill a hole on D and acquire another top 2 defenceman, but we'd have the flexibility of going after either a lefty or righty. How to get that guy? You look at a trade using Galchenyuk or Pacioretty or Gallagher or so on as bait. You figure it out, but any trade where you can trade a past-his-prime guy for a guy who is already a great player and will be for longer, I think that's a no-brainer unless you really feel you're a serious Cup candidate in the coming year...

If we were ever offered Draisaitl for Weber, I couldn't pull the trigger fast enough.

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Price + Weber + Whatever else (within reason) Dallas wants to make Benn + Klingberg + Lehtonen (cap dump) happen. Let the professional scouting team target another underrated defenceman. Sign a slightly better than league 5-on-5 average goalie who won't cost too much. Keep Pacioretty. IMO, something like that would legitimately stretch the window out another 3-4 seasons. I just still don't think Dallas does it.

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So it looks like the team has a good defensive core especially with young players like Sergachev, Juulsen and Lernout. Davidson, Beaulieu and Benn can round out the bottom pairing. Petry, and Emelin seem to be a good fit for the 3-4. But who plays with Weber? That is a huge issue because Markov shouldn't be back if Price is to get an extension.

I hope the management look at RFA defenseman. It will never happen because of the Russian defenseman they just signed, but I think Orlov from Washington would be a great fit for this team (as he skates and carries the puck well out of the defensive end) and could play with Weber - if Washington wants to keep Shattenkirk and Alzner it might be a possibility.

Weber - Orlov

Petry - Emelin

Benn- Davidson

Beaulieu, Sergachev, Juulsen, Lernout, Nesterov (hopefully they trade his rights for anything)

 

Forwards need a skilled, fast centre who can win draws and then another guy who is big and can win draws more than half the time. The only team you get this from is Colorado. Here is what I would propose as COL has only just under a million in cap space and Soderberg has been a huge negative there so far. 

TO COL - Tomas Plekanec, Alex Galchenyuk, Nathan Beaulieu, 1st round pick this year, 2nd round pick next year

TO MTL - Matt Duchene, Carl Soderberg.

MTL has approximately 23.148 coming off the cap in roster players this year. Taking the contracts of Soderberg and Duchene take up 12 million on cap space which leave just under 12 for this team to re-sign Price for future years. We get rid of Plekanec, but give them a roster player for the year (as Plekanec is a centre and is only signed another year) to replace Soderberg as they have the same cap hit.

Re-sign Martinsen because he is fast and hits. Radulov would be great and all but this team has been garbage down the middle for so many years. I would rather see them spend down the middle this summer than spend on wingers. That gives the team four centers who are all capable of playing well where they are supposed to. And as an added plus Julien coached Soderberg when he was at his best in Boston.

Gallagher - Duchene - Paciorietty

Byron - Danualt - Lehkonen

Shaw - Soderberg - Mitchell

Carr - McCarron - Martinsen

 

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22 minutes ago, Concreteveins1 said:

TO COL - Tomas Plekanec, Alex Galchenyuk, Nathan Beaulieu, 1st round pick this year, 2nd round pick next year

TO MTL - Matt Duchene, Carl Soderberg.

...

Gallagher - Duchene - Paciorietty

Byron - Danualt - Lehkonen

Shaw - Soderberg - Mitchell

Carr - McCarron - Martinsen

 

If Galchenyuk's 5-on-5 primary point production wasn't good enough for him to be the #1 centre, why would Duchene's even smaller rate work?

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2 minutes ago, habs_93 said:

If Galchenyuk's 5-on-5 primary point production wasn't good enough for him to be the #1 centre, why would Duchene's even smaller rate work?

That's been my biggest argument with the whole Duchene to MTL rumours.  Why would you go out and trade for a guy who also isn't putting up 1st line #'s.  It makes no sense.

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Duchene is like Weber in some ways. He's good. I'd be happy to have him here. But you don't downgrade Galchenyuk to Duchene just like we shouldn't have downgraded Subban to Weber. No sense in getting the worse player now and the guy who's older and likely to decline faster. If they want to talk Duchene for a package that involves Gallagher and Beaulieu, for example, I'm all ears. For Galchenyuk or Pacioretty, nope.

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20 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

The short answer is yes. The long answer is this:

Weber is a great add to a team wanting to win now, but I don't think he's the focal point of a defence any more, in that I think a D corps needs more than just a Weber to win games. Karlsson goes out an controls the ice. Subban does the same. So does Keith and Doughty. Weber sits back a little more and he doesn't take over the game the way the other guys do. He's also older, and he's on a terrible terrible contract that only seems worse with time. So while he'll be a top-pairing D man for maybe another 2-3 years (maybe a touch longer if he's lucky), his value is going to drop sooner rather than later. I'd rather sell high and get out while we still can. I don't think we have enough here to be a Cup favorite next year, and after that, there's the whole ordeal of having to pay Price and Pacioretty and so on. So while Price always puts us in the conversation, I would jump at the chance to trade a guy who's window is the next 1-3 years for a guy who is really good now but who can also give you a window that's 5-7 years. Chiarelli stated when he traded Hall that he got the lesser player (Larsson) but that it was a better fit for him for team needs, and the same could be true in dealing a guy like Draisaitl for Weber.

The other aspect to consider is Petry. He's not a #1 defenceman but I'd feel comfortable with him being the top-pairing guy on the right side. We'd definitely need to fill a hole on D and acquire another top 2 defenceman, but we'd have the flexibility of going after either a lefty or righty. How to get that guy? You look at a trade using Galchenyuk or Pacioretty or Gallagher or so on as bait. You figure it out, but any trade where you can trade a past-his-prime guy for a guy who is already a great player and will be for longer, I think that's a no-brainer unless you really feel you're a serious Cup candidate in the coming year...

 

I agree with everything except two intangibles .... Weber's appeal to Price and Radulov.      You may have an easier time signing Radulov and Price to an extension with Weber rather than without.      Should it hold up a trade?  probably not.    Will this and trading Weber force MB to admit a mistake and thus hold up a trade? most likely

Unless somebody out there loses their minds ... like McDavid for Weber ... we're stuck with him.    MB won't trade him because doing so admits he never should have gotten him in the first place at the cost of PK.    Next summer? Maybe we see him ship him out, but he won't this year.

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49 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Duchene is like Weber in some ways. He's good. I'd be happy to have him here. But you don't downgrade Galchenyuk to Duchene just like we shouldn't have downgraded Subban to Weber. No sense in getting the worse player now and the guy who's older and likely to decline faster. If they want to talk Duchene for a package that involves Gallagher and Beaulieu, for example, I'm all ears. For Galchenyuk or Pacioretty, nope.

100X

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If we had a GM, here is a trade that I believe offers great options to both teams and helps solve our #1 C issue. I would offer Beaulieu and Weber to Buffalo for Ryan O'Reilly. O'Reilly and Weber contracts are a wash and Bo is finished here anyway. Buffalo has 3 good centres and we have none. Buffalo has a huge mess on defence and this would provide them with 2 top 4 D-men out of the gate. I know trading within the division is not cool but hey; it has been done many times before and even between the Laffs and Habs.

We might then line up like this:

Rads - O'Reilly - Patches

Galchenyuk - Hudon - Lehkonen

Gallagher - Plekanec - Shaw/Byron

Carr - Mitchell - MacCarron

 

Petry - Davidson

Benn  - Emelin

Sergychev - Markov

Juulsen

 

The money saved by not re-signing Bo and having Juulsen and Sergychev on entry level contracts plus a cheaper Markov will be used to sign Rads and GallyA.

Time to give Hudon a shot at an offensive role and recognize GallyA is a winger.

Top pairing is daring but yes, I think Davidson can play there as a good foil for Petry ... Markov cannot play top minutes anymore and Emelin cannot play top pairing. I also have a hunch that Pleks will have a bit of a resurgence next year .... not a 20 goal guy but maybe 15 and say 35 - 40 points total? Alternatively you trade him (salary would have to be retained) and possibly move Shaw to centre that line. If we keep Pleks ... Byron could move to 4th line.

 

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15 minutes ago, Ravadak said:

Because he is ten times better defensively :)

How can he be "ten times better defensively" if he's barely 2 adjusted 5-on-5 events against per 60 minutes better than Galchenyuk last season? While being massively worse in terms of adjusted 5-on-5 events for, mind you, while playing against almost the same opponent level? That's this last season. Going back to 2012-13, Duchene has had a lower adjusted 5-on-5 Corsi Against per 60 rate than Galchenyuk twice, all while only being better in terms of adjusted 5-on-5 Corsi For per 60 once (and even then, by barely 1 event).

The claim that Duchene is some defensive dynamo is of course subjective, but the narrative that he's in any way superior to Galchenyuk in things that matter is objectively false.

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2 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

 

I agree with everything except two intangibles .... Weber's appeal to Price and Radulov.      You may have an easier time signing Radulov and Price to an extension with Weber rather than without.      Should it hold up a trade?  probably not.    Will this and trading Weber force MB to admit a mistake and thus hold up a trade? most likely

Unless somebody out there loses their minds ... like McDavid for Weber ... we're stuck with him.    MB won't trade him because doing so admits he never should have gotten him in the first place at the cost of PK.    Next summer? Maybe we see him ship him out, but he won't this year.

And that's a risk, you're right. We don't know how much stock players like Price and Radulov place in certain teammates and I have no doubt Weber is popular. But I think if you give those guys a shot to win, they'll be on board.

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The idea of Tavares really has me dreaming.  

I am not sure NYI would move him for what we'd be willing to part with but man o man. This is a guy who has put up some really strong offensive numbers, is very solid defensively and has done so with basically NO support his entire career.  Anyone who has had decent numbers did so because they played with him.  

I think Engels is right in his article yesterday: if there's any possible way we can make a move for Tavares, id absolutely jump on it. 

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

And that's a risk, you're right. We don't know how much stock players like Price and Radulov place in certain teammates and I have no doubt Weber is popular. But I think if you give those guys a shot to win, they'll be on board.

I don't think we'll see Price sign until he sees Bergevin drastically improve the top 6 by acquiring a scorer this summer. Like us, I think Price is tired of Bergevin's lack of action. 

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