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2016-17 If I Were GM...


BigTed3
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46 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

You're absolutely right that it doesn't necessarily directly help us to make the offer sheet. It would be better if someone else made the offer sheet and we tried to pounce on the other team who needed to deal assets, but there could still be some value in forcing your rival's hand.

You can almost imagine a guy like Scotty Bowman, if he were GM now, calling up his closest friend that is a GM & saying "you offer-sheet TB and we'll pounce on the assets they have to get rid of to get under the cap.  We'll offer sheet _______ team and you can do the same." lol. 

I wonder, if you took a look at say the best available RFA (draisaitl?) and offered him a monster deal: say, $10m per year for 7 years... would the oil match?  I know it would be a risk. He's not yet a $10m player (although all signs point to him being one) and we'd be giving up 1st rounders for eternity, but would we even come close to a player like draisaitl with any of our 1st round picks?   My guess is edmonton would still match but man they have a lot of expensive players to sign in the next couple of years... 

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I haven't been vague about my feelings on the salary cap. As for the situation with regard to RFAs, it's a bad joke. The entire CBA structure is bad, IMO. And I think the season/point/division structure is not unrelated, here. We have a game where the finances are so harshly controlled, where the margins are extremely low, and the spread of talent is rather thin. What we get is this: a game that's pretty dull a lot of the time. I think there's an argument to be made for hard "parity" imposed from above by league leadership. Arguably, it's worked for the NFL. However, the NFL's salary and contract system is in a different universe from the NHL. Teams are allowed to have real talent, keep it, go after it, and make bold moves knowing they're not dooming their future for trying. Hockey doesn't have that. If we're going to have a brutal hard cap and guaranteed contracts you can't bury, the rest of the rules and league structure should basically be the wild west IMO.

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We currently own, the biggest reason why you don't offer sheet a talented young player to a ridiculous contract: Shea Weber.  Back when Philly offered Weber 14-years at a 7.8-mil cap hit, he was considered one of the top big game defenders in the league.  It only made sense at the time for Nashville to match.  Now five years after said offer sheet, he has become an albatross around the neck of his current team and a prime example of what is wrong with the current CBA.

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

You can almost imagine a guy like Scotty Bowman, if he were GM now, calling up his closest friend that is a GM & saying "you offer-sheet TB and we'll pounce on the assets they have to get rid of to get under the cap.  We'll offer sheet _______ team and you can do the same." lol. 

I wonder, if you took a look at say the best available RFA (draisaitl?) and offered him a monster deal: say, $10m per year for 7 years... would the oil match?  I know it would be a risk. He's not yet a $10m player (although all signs point to him being one) and we'd be giving up 1st rounders for eternity, but would we even come close to a player like draisaitl with any of our 1st round picks?   My guess is edmonton would still match but man they have a lot of expensive players to sign in the next couple of years... 

 If we stay at around 9 million it would be 2 firsts, 1 second, and 1 third. So its definitely worth it in that respect. 

HTL is right about the collusion aspect of it. I don't think MB will do it except I think there is a chance because the situation is that dire. If he goes the conservative route, we might have a chance to trade for Johnson (who I would like but he's 5'8")... other than that we have no realistic options. I guess we could make some noise and go after Duchene and Johnson but it seems the asking price for Duchene was just too high and he may not be much of an upgrade to Chucky at center as I've heard people comment that he is a better winger!

1 hour ago, habs_93 said:

I haven't been vague about my feelings on the salary cap. As for the situation with regard to RFAs, it's a bad joke. The entire CBA structure is bad, IMO. And I think the season/point/division structure is not unrelated, here. We have a game where the finances are so harshly controlled, where the margins are extremely low, and the spread of talent is rather thin. What we get is this: a game that's pretty dull a lot of the time. I think there's an argument to be made for hard "parity" imposed from above by league leadership. Arguably, it's worked for the NFL. However, the NFL's salary and contract system is in a different universe from the NHL. Teams are allowed to have real talent, keep it, go after it, and make bold moves knowing they're not dooming their future for trying. Hockey doesn't have that. If we're going to have a brutal hard cap and guaranteed contracts you can't bury, the rest of the rules and league structure should basically be the wild west IMO.

I say be bold! This is just how it is now. If you fail you take advantage of it and rebuild

5 minutes ago, East_Coast_Juggalo_13 said:

We currently own, the biggest reason why you don't offer sheet a talented young player to a ridiculous contract: Shea Weber.  Back when Philly offered Weber 14-years at a 7.8-mil cap hit, he was considered one of the top big game defenders in the league.  It only made sense at the time for Nashville to match.  Now five years after said offer sheet, he has become an albatross around the neck of his current team and a prime example of what is wrong with the current CBA.

I hated the trade but I would sign Weber RIGHT NOW for  7.8 million. For the Habs the contract is better than Suban's! It is only bad for Nashville because at the time you could sign a guy forever and structure it however you wanted... not the case anymore. When Weber retires early, it will be the Preds problem

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To comment on a few of the points from above:

1. I don't think chasing RFA's is a great way to improve your team. I think it's a way to weaken your opponents. I can guarantee you that if we offersheet Draisaitl, the Oilers will match. What would you do if you were Edmonton? You would match. You wouldn't take a couple of picks for him. But once you've matched, then you're in a pickle as to how to fit everyone under the cap. You've lost control of your own cap situation and the structure of your contract and it forces you to make a decision. Look at things the other way around. If someone offersheeted Galchenyuk to 6 years at 7M a season, would you match? I would. I don't want to just take a couple of picks that might end up being 25th or 28th overall choices. You sign Galchenyuk and then you figure out what to do about your cap afterwards. So offersheeting doesn't usually help out the team making the offer. It simply hurts the other team who's player is at risk. So for us to offersheet Draisaitl probably doesn't help much. To offersheet Drouin on the other hand forces Tampa's hand.

2. Agreed with you, 93, that the hard cap and guaranteed contracts don't gel together. If a team gives out 1-2 bad contracts, it can seriously handicap the organization for years. There's also no reward for doing a good job. I've used this example before, but look at the Hawks, who backed into Toews and Kane but who also did a good job developing other players like Keith, Crawford, Ladd, Byfuglien, Teurvainen, and so on. The reward for doing well is that all those players' values are boosted and you can't keep half of them. There's just no reward for drafting and developing well. I'd love to see a rule that if you sign a player you've drafted yourself, you only get hit 75% of their deal against the cap, so that it encourages teams to do more with their own players.

3. Subban's contract is a way better contract than Weber's. Weber has 9 years left after this one at 7.857M a season. Subban has 5 years left at 9M. So you're saving 1.1M a year for the next 5 years, but then you have 4 extra years at 7.85M more per year, and those seasons will account for years when Weber is 37-40. There's no guarantee he will retire, and if he does retire, you can still get hit with a cap-recapture penalty. Subban will be 33 when his contract ends, which means he's likely still a top-end player thoughout the duration of this deal. Weber's play probably declines, even over the next 5 years of his deal, never mind the 4 after that. As for that cap recapture penalty, as long as Weber doesn't retire in the next two years, we're pretty safe... so long as we don't trade him. And this is where it gets interesting and becomes a problem. If we trade him, we run into a lesser but similar situation to Nashville, were we can get seriously burned if he retires early. If we trade him this now, we are on the hook for 4.1M in cap recapture penalties, spread out over the years he retires early (e.g. if Weber retires two years early, we pay 2.05M in cap penalties over each of those two years). It's manageable in theory, even in the worst case scenario where he retires one year early and we pay a cap penalty of 4.1M in 2025-26. The absolute biggest disaster would be to trade him AFTER the 2017-18 season. At that point, we'd be on the hook for 8.2M in cap recapture, so if he were to retire one year early, that would all be in one year and two years early would still be 4.1M a season, etc. So it's not an easy contract to trade for us, because not only do we have to find a taker, we also have to make that trade at the right time. If we do it in the next two years, we risk significant cap-recapture penalties (especially if we do it in one year). But if we do it too much later after that, he becomes less of a desirable asset for the other teams. So there are no two ways about it: this was an awful contract to take on, way worse than the Subban one.

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From the player's perspective, let's say Draisaitl, what happens if we offer sheet him for 8 years at 3 million per year (ridiculously low)...obviously Edmonton would match that, but now does that mean the player must sign for only that amount?  Obviously not, but I'm curious how that works if anyone knows.

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4 hours ago, Windoe said:

From the player's perspective, let's say Draisaitl, what happens if we offer sheet him for 8 years at 3 million per year (ridiculously low)...obviously Edmonton would match that, but now does that mean the player must sign for only that amount?  Obviously not, but I'm curious how that works if anyone knows.

The player has to sign the offersheet as well. It's not just that the team makes an offer to an RFA, the actual player has to sign the contract and agree to those terms. Otherwise it's not an official offersheet. Draisaitl would never sign for that amount, so wouldn't happen!

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2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

The player has to sign the offersheet as well. It's not just that the team makes an offer to an RFA, the actual player has to sign the contract and agree to those terms. Otherwise it's not an official offersheet. Draisaitl would never sign for that amount, so wouldn't happen!

I somehow just realized this, and it makes perfect sense of course.

So, in other words, Weber did sign that monstrous offer sheet from the Flyers, right? What's with all the leadership talk, that's like the epitome of selfishness :D

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1 hour ago, ChiLla said:

I somehow just realized this, and it makes perfect sense of course.

So, in other words, Weber did sign that monstrous offer sheet from the Flyers, right? What's with all the leadership talk, that's like the epitome of selfishness :D

I know you were playing because lets face it, ANY player that turns down a contract like that needs his head examined :P but, for the record:

Weber was not happy in Nashville when the flyers put in the offer sheet. He had been talked down by management to the media and lowballed the year before and i dont blame him for being upset.  

 

Im not sure if its ever disclosed if players turn down contract offers though. It would be interesting to know, for example, if PK received any offers when he was a RFA holdout that one summer. 

 

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52 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I know you were playing because lets face it, ANY player that turns down a contract like that needs his head examined :P but, for the record:

Weber was not happy in Nashville when the flyers put in the offer sheet. He had been talked down by management to the media and lowballed the year before and i dont blame him for being upset.  

 

Im not sure if its ever disclosed if players turn down contract offers though. It would be interesting to know, for example, if PK received any offers when he was a RFA holdout that one summer. 

 

No doubt, that's truly an offer you can't refuse if there ever was one. Interesting though, I didn't know (or don't remember, I'm getting old :P ) that he was low-balled by the Preds as well.

I don't think there's any kind of (reliable) data on players refusing offer sheets, but it'd definitely be fun to know.

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6 minutes ago, ChiLla said:

I don't think there's any kind of (reliable) data on players refusing offer sheets, but it'd definitely be fun to know.

They're so rare it's not worth approaching in that way, honestly. I have, however, seen people do tests on effective individual tax rates, exchange rate issues, likely merchandising/promotional value, and so on to determine the "real" value of a contract to a player and a team. The delta between the two numbers, if I remember correctly, says a lot about a team's ability to sign big free agent talent.

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No blaming Weber for taking the rich contract. Players have short shelve lives in general, so you take the money you can make in your career. Maybe you don't squabble over 5M vs 5.5M a year but if one team's giving you 14 years at 7.8M a season and the deal is heavily front-loaded and the other team is giving you 6M for 5 years (or whatever it was from Nashville), that's a pretty decent difference. I wouldn't blame Carey if he left Montreal because someone else offered him millions more nor would I blame him for wanting to play closer to home or because he thought we couldn't win. That's life. I do still blame a guy like Komisarek, who bolted for the Leafs for similar money that the Habs were offering. That was a scumbag move. But no blame to Weber in this one.

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I wonder what it would take to get Oliver Ekman-Larsson to play alongside Weber.
He (OEL) is coming off his worst season in a while but is only 25 and is an elite talent.  He would be exactly what this team needs & if we could somehow get him, our backend would be sitting pretty.  

However, I suspect that acquiring him would take either Alex Galchenyuk or Pacioretty.    That would hurt us up front, where we already struggle.   We would be rock solid from the blue-line back but i have no idea who would put pucks in the net.  I think you could turn around & trade a guy like Sergachev for a scoring forward but we'd be making a lateral move after losing Patches or Chucky.

Any scenarios where we could get EOL without completely killing our forward depth?   

 

 

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33 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I wonder what it would take to get Oliver Ekman-Larsson to play alongside Weber.
He (OEL) is coming off his worst season in a while but is only 25 and is an elite talent.  He would be exactly what this team needs & if we could somehow get him, our backend would be sitting pretty.  

However, I suspect that acquiring him would take either Alex Galchenyuk or Pacioretty.    That would hurt us up front, where we already struggle.   We would be rock solid from the blue-line back but i have no idea who would put pucks in the net.  I think you could turn around & trade a guy like Sergachev for a scoring forward but we'd be making a lateral move after losing Patches or Chucky.

Any scenarios where we could get EOL without completely killing our forward depth?  

Would still hurt our forward depth but OEL + Duclair for Galchenyuk + Beaulieu could be interesting. At least we'd have a potential top 6 guy coming the other way.

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22 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Would still hurt our forward depth but OEL + Duclair for Galchenyuk + Beaulieu could be interesting. At least we'd have a potential top 6 guy coming the other way.

I like it. 

I think getting a guy like OEL (while expensive) would be a huge move for us.  Not just because he's a great player but because he would make both Weber and Markov more effective.  Weber, obviously, would be better with a fast, puck moving dman beside him, while Markov, shifting back beside Petry would most likely have another season like this past year. 

OEL - Weber
Markov - Petry
Sergachev-Benn  

Thats a heck of a blueline. Maybe you get one more year out of Markov after this one too, if he flips back to 3rd pairing the following season. 

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10 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I like it. 

I think getting a guy like OEL (while expensive) would be a huge move for us.  Not just because he's a great player but because he would make both Weber and Markov more effective.  Weber, obviously, would be better with a fast, puck moving dman beside him, while Markov, shifting back beside Petry would most likely have another season like this past year. 

OEL - Weber
Markov - Petry
Sergachev-Benn  

Thats a heck of a blueline. Maybe you get one more year out of Markov after this one too, if he flips back to 3rd pairing the following season. 

Oh it would definitely improve the D substantially, and I personally like the idea of building from the blueline out because D men are on the ice for more of the game. Guys like Weber, Subban, Keith, Doughty, etc can play 25-28 minutes a night, whereas a top forward still only plays about 20-22. The idea would be that you groom Sergachev this coming year to take over a top 4 role for Markov in two years, albeit there's obviously no guarantee (Beaulieu hasn't really grown into a top 4 role yet).

The major downside is the complete absence of offence, which would only get worse with Galchenyuk gone. Maybe Duclair is ready to take on a permanent top 6 role, but he's a gamble. You'd absolutely have to have Radulov back and you'd have to be willing to play at least 1-2 of Hudon, Scherbak, and McCarron in your top 9. You can't go forward with Byron, Shaw, Plekanec, and Danault in your top 6, no matter how good your D is.

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What if you offer Paul Byron to LA for Jeff Carter?  You might have to add more to that, but I doubt it.  LA's looking to dump salary and we're looking to win now.  The Kings have Tiffoli and Pearson to resign.  Paul Byron and 1 of your 2nds in 2018.  There's your top line centre.  66 points in 82 games last season, 9 of his 30 plus goals were game winners.  Forget that he's 32.  He's cap friendly at $5.2 mil.  I still think you could move Galchenyuk for Leddy.  It's a pretty fair trade.  

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1 hour ago, East_Coast_Juggalo_13 said:

What if you offer Paul Byron to LA for Jeff Carter?  You might have to add more to that, but I doubt it.  LA's looking to dump salary and we're looking to win now.  The Kings have Tiffoli and Pearson to resign.  Paul Byron and 1 of your 2nds in 2018.  There's your top line centre.  66 points in 82 games last season, 9 of his 30 plus goals were game winners.  Forget that he's 32.  He's cap friendly at $5.2 mil.  I still think you could move Galchenyuk for Leddy.  It's a pretty fair trade.  

1. I wouldn't give up Carter if I were LA. They may need to free up cash, but why trade a guy who's still extremely productive? And if you are trading him, why wouldn't they deal him for high draft choices and/or top-tier prospects? Why would they trade for a 3rd line winger? Makes no sense for LA. I'd love to dump salary as well, but I wouldn't trade Weber for a 3rd-pairing D man just to clear up salary. I'd look at dealing Plekanec or Emelin or Shaw first, and I'd be open to dealing Weber to get his contract off our books before he becomes untradeable, but I wouldn't give away a top-pairing D man for nothing, just like LA won't trade a top-line forward for a 3rd line veteran.

2. Galchenyuk for Leddy is something I think you've suggested many times. It's a no from me from our end. Galchenyuk is one of our few elite skilled forwards and despite his misuse here, he was a top 10 producer over the end of the 15-16 season and was a top 5 producer to start this year before his injury. This guy can be elite if injury-free and given the chance. If we're dealing him, it's for an elite young player in return. You want to deal him for Draisaitl or Huberdeau or Ekman-Larson or Ekblad or so on, that's one thing. Not for Leddy. Leddy in my view falls into the same class as a guy like Petry or Seabrook or Muzzin: he's good, he's serviceable, but he's not elite the way Galchenyuk can be. The ceiling there is much lower, and we can't afford to deal one of our few scoring assets for a mid-level defenceman.

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First off all...

DONT TRADE GALCHENUYK...i will say it again, and again, and again...His value is at a low point right now just because no one really knows his true potential yet...dont do what the Bruins did with Seguin...top line C, LW, or whatever we WONT add a true No1 Center by trading him, in any way...i actually found this year to be ideal in the future contract negotiations...we can obviously resign him at another bridge contract, or offer him a longer contract much more Cap friendly. This time around we have leverage in the negotiations and we must take advantage of it. Slot him as our 2nd line LWer and go from there...

Secondly...

WE MUST GET RID OF PLEKANEC...do whatever it takes, and i mean whatever...he is not a top 6 player anymore and is already surpassed from Danault in the depth chart. 6M trapped like this in a salary cap era is going to sink us to mediocrity for another year. Expose him at the expansion draft, maybe sweeten the pot for Vegas, trade him, retire him, do whatever it takes for him to not be in the lineup when the puck drops for the 17/18 season...dont even consider retaining him because we are a couple of C short for next year. Admit it and go on.

We have to realize that we are without a 1C and 2C player. Begin planning with this fact in your mind. Is there any player within the system capable to fill the spot? Radulov? Lekhonen? McCarron? Hudon? These are questions management have to answer asap. No light at the UFA pool either, dont make a mistake there non less. I am going once again to suggest an offer sheet for one of the available RFA, but i already know how that sounds...unlikely...

We are, no doubt, in a very tough situation. Usually, when you are cornered like that, you make all the false moves you can, like considering moving Galchenuyk for Stepan or JT Miller...lets hope we dont make a move like this, although im not very optimistic. I'd rather we trade Price or Max and go for a quick rebuild than, make such moves. Shipachev was a great option in my mind, but we let that boat sail away. 

If we take a gamble {again?} i would opt to target players with potential that havent yet panned out with their teams like Bennett CGY, Strome NYI, Reinhart BUF among others. Another route is try to force the hand of a team with Cap problems like CHI {Anisimov?}, CBJ {Jenner, Wennberg?}, MIN {Granlund, Coyle?}.

...not very optimistic this time around folks...

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So I know this won't be popular but the Preds barely made the playoffs and lets face it Pk was ok this year but not a big force for his team at least not in any way I can see. he did not break open a bunch of games for them and is not much more in the playoffs. so I don't see the big win here yet! now my feeling is that by the 2019 season it will be a solid win for the Preds but so far this trade is a tie.

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12 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

So I know this won't be popular but the Preds barely made the playoffs and lets face it Pk was ok this year but not a big force for his team at least not in any way I can see. he did not break open a bunch of games for them and is not much more in the playoffs. so I don't see the big win here yet! now my feeling is that by the 2019 season it will be a solid win for the Preds but so far this trade is a tie.

The trade isn't bad because of the Preds playoff run. The trade was bad because we got the slower, older, less useful player on the worse contract. Weber is still a good player, Weber is a better powerplay quarterback, and then in my view, Subban is better at just about everything else AND he's younger, meaning we're likely to see that difference grow with time. Different story if we were acquiring Weber when he was 26. We didn't. We are getting 31 year-old Weber and 34 year-old Weber and 40 year-old Weber in this deal. There were ONLY two arguments Bergevin was able to come up with for justifying this trade:

1.Subban's attitude was a reason the Habs couldn't win.

2. The Habs could win now with Weber, so it was worth eating up the bad contract years of an aging Weber down the line.

This season's playoffs have proven MB's gamble on both to be far from the truth. The Habs look to be further from contention than when Subban was here, and Subban is clearly not hurting the Preds, just as he didn't hurt the Habs on their runs to two ECF's. In fact, Subban-Ekholm has been used as the Preds #1 pairing, playing the most minutes and being given the late-game shutdown role. Subban missed time for injury this year but he actually had more PPG than all but 10 of the D men ahead of him in the scoring race, including Weber. So he had a pretty decent year. He wasn't used as a 1st-wave PP guy most of the time, but if anything that speaks even more to how he was able to compensate by producing more at ES. So no, Subban wasn't a Norris candidate this year and the Preds didn't win the President's Trophy, but if Bergevin is blasting Subban for being a guy who ruins team chemistry and if Bergevin is justifying the trade by arguing the Habs win short-term while Preds win long-term, he's been wrong on both accounts, and that leaves him with zero justification for his biggest move... something many fans have been saying all along.

 

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

In fact, Subban-Ekholm has been used as the Preds #1 pairing, playing the most minutes and being given the late-game shutdown role.

That's something that I don't think gets enough attention, even from Habs fans who like PK.  The whole time he was here the entire story line around him was "yeah he's a great and exciting offensive player, but he can't play defence!  My God, the spin-o-ramas!"

Well now look at him when he's given a chance.  He still makes the occasional dumb spin-o-rama mistake (he had a pretty bad one last night in fact) but he does so many little things so well to help the Preds get it out of their zone and down the ice.  Like you said, Ted, he's playing on Nashville's top defensive pairing and he's usually the first over the boards when it's time to kill off a penalty.  He's still generating some offense, sure, but moreso he's been stellar at limiting the chances of the other teams' top lines.

This was the biggest failing of MT and MB with regards to Subban, IMO (although the media can take some blame on this one, too).  They were so focused on "teaching" him to be responsible and to play the "right" way that they completely missed the fact that Subban, when allowed to actually move the puck somewhere other than up the boards, was the best defensive defenseman on the team.

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