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2016-17 If I Were GM...


BigTed3
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Tough spot for MB to be in... the Preds just put Mike Ribeiro on waivers today. Why does this matter? Well Ribeiro is a 2nd/3rd line left-handed offensive center who puts up a modest point total but is small and soft on the puck. Sound familiar? It should, because it's a fairly similar profile to David Desharnais. Another similarity? Both are playing out the last year of a contract that pays them 3.5M a year. Now DD is 30 to Ribeiro's 36, but given that both are impending UFA's, all that really matters is how good the player is now (i.e. this isn't an older guy locked into a contract for another 6-8 years). And in that regard, Ribeiro has actually significantly out-produced Desharnais in each of the last 3 years.

So if the Preds put RIbeiro on waivers, it's a pretty good indication that they asked around and didn't find anyone was too interested in taking him on. The one upside for us is that Ribeiro has a reputation as being a bad apple and a poor team player, whereas DD is a hard-working guy and good teammate by all accounts. But if I'm MB, I'm up working the phones now... he can't wait to find a taker for DD because the market is probably extremely thin and is saturated by Ribeiro being available. I'd offer to retain part of his salary to make him more attractive than Ribeiro...

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On 2/3/2017 at 2:02 PM, BigTed3 said:

Tough spot for MB to be in... the Preds just put Mike Ribeiro on waivers today. Why does this matter? Well Ribeiro is a 2nd/3rd line left-handed offensive center who puts up a modest point total but is small and soft on the puck. Sound familiar? It should, because it's a fairly similar profile to David Desharnais. Another similarity? Both are playing out the last year of a contract that pays them 3.5M a year. Now DD is 30 to Ribeiro's 36, but given that both are impending UFA's, all that really matters is how good the player is now (i.e. this isn't an older guy locked into a contract for another 6-8 years). And in that regard, Ribeiro has actually significantly out-produced Desharnais in each of the last 3 years.

So if the Preds put RIbeiro on waivers, it's a pretty good indication that they asked around and didn't find anyone was too interested in taking him on. The one upside for us is that Ribeiro has a reputation as being a bad apple and a poor team player, whereas DD is a hard-working guy and good teammate by all accounts. But if I'm MB, I'm up working the phones now... he can't wait to find a taker for DD because the market is probably extremely thin and is saturated by Ribeiro being available. I'd offer to retain part of his salary to make him more attractive than Ribeiro...

The optics on Ribeiro are that he's a cancer though. Ive never heard a single bad thing said about DD as a team mate. 

Rightly or wrongly I think a LOT of teams would worry about adding a guy like Ribiero.  If the price was low enough on DD (say a 6th rounder) i suspect he would find a new home fairly easily.  

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I've been contemplating whether or not the Habs should consider trading Galchenyuk (Yvon Pednault of RDS has suggested the possibility). With all of the talk regarding Duchene as a possible trade candidate for the Habs, my first thought was a swap of the two players. That said, I'm not sure that would be such a great thing now. When you look at Duchene's career stats, he has not really been a truly outstanding player overall that warrants the asking price from Colorado. Is it the fact he has played for Colorado perhaps, which makes his record not as impressive as some seem to think.

Though I'm not sold on adding a player like Hanzal, maybe keeping Galchenyuk while adding Hanzal could be the better way to go.

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I am a little alarmed by all the talk recently of trading GallyA ....... EDIT   Is there something about hyper-talented young players that this fan base and management dislikes? (See Subban for Weber travesty) GallyA has been injured and has just come back and predictably, is taking some time to get back to form. And quelle surprise that some clown from RDS is making up trade rumours for the non-French speaking GallyA. And what an idiotic strategy it would be to trade any player when they are not playing up to par .......

We will not get fair value for any of our players at this point in the season unless you subscribe to the theory that the other league GM's are actually dumber than Bergevin ......the only move Habs management should be contemplating for the end of this lost season is to pave over the foxhole and bring in better management while we still have some window with our star players ... and that window is getting mighty narrow my friends!

 

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41 minutes ago, tony5775 said:

Not sure how much cap space will be left on deadline day. But if we do decide to stay pretty much as is, it would be great to see Brian Gionta come back for the cup run. He is having a pretty good season and is certain to be moved.

I suspect you'll see a guy like Gio, Iginla or even Jagr join the squad. I dont have a huge problem with any (as long as we arent giving up much and Therrien doesnt over-rely on any) but I do think we need more than one of those additions at this point. 

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1 hour ago, tony5775 said:

Not sure how much cap space will be left on deadline day. But if we do decide to stay pretty much as is, it would be great to see Brian Gionta come back for the cup run. He is having a pretty good season and is certain to be moved.

Last time i checked, we had just under a mill of room, which would allow us to take on another 4 mill contract. All this assumes nobody else is dumped from the roster to make additional space.

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4 hours ago, H_T_L said:

Last time i checked, we had just under a mill of room, which would allow us to take on another 4 mill contract. All this assumes nobody else is dumped from the roster to make additional space.

All that is correct. However, we're currently carrying 14 forwards on the roster. If we send DLR back to the minors, that increase our cap space to close to 2M now and even more closer to the deadline. If we make a trade whereby we include DD as a cap dump to even things out, for example, then we have plenty of space.

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If I'm GM, I estimate our current chances of winning the Cup in 2017 at about 6%.

If I can improve my odds by 33% and get that up to 8% by making a deal that does not mortgage the future, then I make that deal.

What I do not do, is mortgage the future hard to turn that 6% into 12%.

Because I'd rather have many 4%-8% chances over the next 10 years, than a couple of 12% chances over the next 10 years.

 

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10 hours ago, Windoe said:

If I'm GM, I estimate our current chances of winning the Cup in 2017 at about 6%.

If I can improve my odds by 33% and get that up to 8% by making a deal that does not mortgage the future, then I make that deal.

What I do not do, is mortgage the future hard to turn that 6% into 12%.

Because I'd rather have many 4%-8% chances over the next 10 years, than a couple of 12% chances over the next 10 years.

 

Our chance of winning the cup is at 0%. There is absolutely no leadership to be found ANYWHERE in the organization. And hey, welcome to the forum Windoe! 

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38 minutes ago, Habs=stanleycup said:

If I were GM I'd do the right thing and fire my coach immediately before it's too late. This is a business, and friendship can't take precedence over common sense. Tell him it ain't personal, he'll get over it. If he's not too thinned skinned you'll get to keep your friend too.

That's the thing tho,,,, other GMs have friends that are their coach(s), but seemingly, they have the wherewithall to fire their friends because the team is not performing. MB has taken this "friendship" too far where he is ruining our team for the sake of Therrien's friendship. 

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3 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

That's the thing tho,,,, other GMs have friends that are their coach(s), but seemingly, they have the wherewithall to fire their friends because the team is not performing. MB has taken this "friendship" too far where he is ruining our team for the sake of Therrien's friendship. 

Maybe we can hope Julien is a friend of Bergevin.

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If I were GM:

- Fire Therrien and hire Julien (rumor today was that one reason Julien was fired was because he wanted to play skilled youngsters over giving veterans on big contracts more ice... how refreshing)

- Trade for Duchene or RNH... within reason, I'd give up a 1st, I'd give up one of our 2nd's this year or next, I'd give up any of Mac, Juulsen, Hudon, Scherbak, etc. I'd give up Beaulieu or Emelin... we need an impact top 6 center. There are guys you'd hate to lose but reverse things for a second... if we had Duchene already, would you trade him for another team's late first rounder and two good prospects? Probably not. Would you trade Galchenyuk for that package? Probably not. I agree with MB that he should be steadfast in not giving up Sergachev, but other than that, he's going to have to give up something to get something. If he can't get Duchene without giving up Sergachev, then he should go after RNH next and then Landeskog and then Couturier. He's got to find someone where the other team will make a trade. Maybe Edmonton goes for a package that includes a guy like Beau or Emelin. Emelin + Mac or Emelin + Lehkonen might get it done for RNH, for example.

- Look for a way to get Gostisbehere out of Philly. They obviously undervalue him, he could be a real steal and he's young and skilled.

There are going to be deals to be had this year. Some people are saying there will be few trades because most teams are close to the playoffs, but that will change a bit as we approach March 1st. And I think other teams are going to be thinking a lot about the expansion draft and who they're going to lose. If they know they'll have to expose extra players, they're going to try to get something back for them. Look at Anaheim trying to trade a useful D man, for example. This is the time for MB to make a move.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

 

- Look for a way to get Gostisbehere out of Philly. They obviously undervalue him, he could be a real steal and he's young and skilled.

 

I don't think teams really undervalue players anymore. I think they overvalue players. As for Gostisbehere, it could just be he isn't a "fit" for the Flyers. 

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5 hours ago, habs1952 said:

I don't think teams really undervalue players anymore. I think they overvalue players. As for Gostisbehere, it could just be he isn't a "fit" for the Flyers. 

Even on our own team, the Habs clearly undervalued Subban. They chose to ignore how good he was on the ice and what he brought to the team because they didn't think he had the right character. And they ended up trading him for an inferior player. I think that Therrien undervalued Eller. I think he undervalues what Galchenyuk can bring and chooses to focus on his defence and face-off lacunes instead of thinking about the positives he brings to puck control and the offensive end. Similarly, I think Philly doesn't give Ghost his dues for the skill he brings, instead choosing to focus on maturity of decision-making.

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If I were GM I would be looking at ways to upgrade secondary scoring immediately. I think a guy like Patrick Sharp would be easy to scoop at a low low price and may provide some punch on the PP (because the PP sucks so damn bad). A rental with some leadership and scoring ability (Doan, Iginla) would be all he team needs if they wanted to make a push. If they suck after the deadline, they suck, and there are pieces to move in the off season.

One thing that interests me though is the abundance of young defence on Carolina and the lack of centers they have. I wonder about a trade like Noah Hanifan or Jaccob Slavin for Alex Galchenyuk would even be considered in this market as it would help both teams. Sure the Habs need a centre, but Galchenyuk doesn't seem to be cutting it. The kid cant win a draw and constantly makes bad decisions that frequently turn into low percentage plays with the puck. This is why Danault works so well with Pacthes and Radulov, as he makes simple plays to gain possession of the puck. This team needs help getting out of their own end and doesn't look to shabby:

Hanifin/Slavin - Weber

Emelin - Petry

Beaulieu/Pateryn - Markov

Nesterov - Redmond

Juulsen - Sergachev

I feel like there are some good pieces then to acquire a top line center by trade like Duchene.

 

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The team just can't afford to trade Galchenyuk, especially not for a defenceman. Without him, our middle is Danault, Plekanec, Desharnais, and Mitchell. That's brutal. And even in terms of what's coming up in the system, we have very little too. McCarron is better-suited to playing wing. The organization can't decide what it wants to do with Hudon and Scherbak. There simply isn't another top 6 center in the organization right now. So if there's any thought to trading Galchenyuk, there better be plans to acquire two top-6 centers to fill our needs.

At this point, I would actually wonder about whether we could trade Weber to be honest. I just don't see the value in what we're getting from him, and he's only going to decline over time. At this point, I'd rather trade him while the league still thinks he has high value... and yes, this time, MB had better get a replacement defenceman AND another good piece.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

The team just can't afford to trade Galchenyuk, especially not for a defenceman. Without him, our middle is Danault, Plekanec, Desharnais, and Mitchell. That's brutal. And even in terms of what's coming up in the system, we have very little too. McCarron is better-suited to playing wing. The organization can't decide what it wants to do with Hudon and Scherbak. There simply isn't another top 6 center in the organization right now. So if there's any thought to trading Galchenyuk, there better be plans to acquire two top-6 centers to fill our needs.

At this point, I would actually wonder about whether we could trade Weber to be honest. I just don't see the value in what we're getting from him, and he's only going to decline over time. At this point, I'd rather trade him while the league still thinks he has high value... and yes, this time, MB had better get a replacement defenceman AND another good piece.

Strongly agreed. Weber just hasn`t fit in with us as a Hab at all and he shows it. I think he misses Nashville.

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2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

The team just can't afford to trade Galchenyuk, especially not for a defenceman. Without him, our middle is Danault, Plekanec, Desharnais, and Mitchell. That's brutal. And even in terms of what's coming up in the system, we have very little too. McCarron is better-suited to playing wing. The organization can't decide what it wants to do with Hudon and Scherbak. There simply isn't another top 6 center in the organization right now. So if there's any thought to trading Galchenyuk, there better be plans to acquire two top-6 centers to fill our needs.

At this point, I would actually wonder about whether we could trade Weber to be honest. I just don't see the value in what we're getting from him, and he's only going to decline over time. At this point, I'd rather trade him while the league still thinks he has high value... and yes, this time, MB had better get a replacement defenceman AND another good piece.

I'm not a Weber proponent, but I think we should give him more time. Our systems are a mess right now, for one, so it's a little difficult to judge the performance of the defense. Julien also has experience with Chara, and may be able to get similar performance out of Weber for a couple of years. We aren't going to break even on a second trade involving Weber at this point either. It's going to be a tough market, as most teams have their own defensemen to shield from the draft and aren't going to make a lateral movement, because Weber's contract is beyond that of most comparable players. The result of a Weber trade right now would be a straight downgrade at a time when we need to upgrade other positions. Of course with any trade there are some strange scenarios that end up making things possible. We could find a team that would rather trade 2 for 1 than lose a player for nothing, for example. In either case, I don't see Bergevin making such a move, he chose his guy, and if Therrien is any indication, he will stick by his guy for longer than is reasonable.

I'd like to see us give Hudon a legitimate shot at a top 6 role (or at least top 9) under a new coach. We have a number of players not performing offensively right now, and he's been a steady offensive presence in the AHL for a few years. Right now I'm concerned that our lack of offense is going to be tied to Desharnais being scratched. The issue is that our top 9 consists of players who produce most of their offense by batting for, rather than controlling, the puck. They create changes in possession, grind, and cause turnovers, for hasty chances, rather than gaining control, organizing, and setting up. We need to find more of a balance, in systems or personnel, so our other lines are getting some better opportunities.

I'd like to look higher and more permanent than Sharp, but I'd accept him as a rental if that isn't possible. On a scale of 1-10, I'd put him firmly in the middle of what we might hope to acquire. If we are aiming for a relatively cheap and safe forward rental, I would hope we match it with a better/decent D acquisition.

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I saw on Spector's site that the Wings are willing to part with Vanek and Jurco.  I think We could work out a deal with them.  Something to the effect of:

To MTL:  Thomas Vanek, Thomas Jurco

To DET: Jacob De la Rose, Greg Pateryn, MTL's 2nd round pick, 2017

 

The other move I'd be interested in is:

 

To NYI: WSH's 2nd round pick 2017

To MTL: Dennis Seidenberg

 

The draft is really so awful this year that you wouldn't miss either of those 2nd rounders.

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On 2/19/2017 at 7:51 AM, East_Coast_Juggalo_13 said:

I saw on Spector's site that the Wings are willing to part with Vanek and Jurco.  I think We could work out a deal with them.  Something to the effect of:

To MTL:  Thomas Vanek, Thomas Jurco

To DET: Jacob De la Rose, Greg Pateryn, MTL's 2nd round pick, 2017

The other move I'd be interested in is:

To NYI: WSH's 2nd round pick 2017

To MTL: Dennis Seidenberg

The draft is really so awful this year that you wouldn't miss either of those 2nd rounders.

Interesting ideas.   
I think we might be giving up too much for Jurco & Vanek    Detroit purportedly wants a 2nd for Vanek, meaning you're offering DLR and Pateryn for Jurco which seems a tad high.  yes, Jurco has a higher ceiling than either of the other two, but both Pateryn and DLR are pretty much sure things... if Jurco cant be a top 6, he probably doesnt have a career in the NHL so there's a decent component of risk. 

Im not sure id have any interest in Seidenburg.   Are you thinking he'd crack our top 4?  

I agree the draft looks weak this year but remember that weaker drafts (top end talent) usually yield really good 2nd and 3rd rounds (players for whatever reason end up not developing as fast that year) so I woudlnt be too hasty with those 2nd rounders.   id almost be more inclined to give up our 1st this year (if the return was right) than a 2nd or 3rd. 

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10 minutes ago, East_Coast_Juggalo_13 said:

I'm just curious, what degree of interest there is in trading Carey Price at the upcoming draft.  I think if you can trade your way up using Carey Price as a trade chip, then do it. Maybe send Price to the Stars for the 5th overall pick.  Or maybe even to Vegas for the 3rd OVA.

If MB did that, then who's our starter? 

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