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2016-17 If I Were GM...


BigTed3
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4 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

To me, there's no such thing as a "proven winner" being good just because their name is on the Cup. I want to know what that guy did to help win the Cup and I want to know if he's still the same player now that he used to be when that happened. Beauchemin is well past his prime, he's not a high quality player any more, and in any case, he's told Colorado's management that he would prefer not to be traded so that his kids don't have to move any more in his career. Similarly, Moen, Gill, Gionta, Gomez, and so on were "proven winners" when they came here but they didn't win anything while here. I'll take Erik Karlsson on my team any day over Zdeno Chara, even though Chara has a Cup and Karlsson doesn't. I'll take Ovechkin and McDavid over Lucic and Andrew Shaw, even though only the latter pair have been on a Cup-winning team.

The difference between Zetterberg and all those other guys is the playoff games and experience.  You've got your guy.  He's still producing (46 points in 60 games).  If he had put up those same numbers on this team he'd be 2nd in scoring.  We need offence, he adds it.  Of course, you could get Radim Vrbata (44 points in 60 games) for a much cheaper rental.

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I've been looking around and as far as LD goes, it looks like the options are pretty limited. 

With Emelin playing poorly, Beaulieu not cracking the top 4, and Pateryn supposedly on the outs, combined with Markov expiring/aging, we're looking at a pretty big turnover in our D core regardless. Might as well start now. We need at least 1 solid top 4 D option until Sergachev, since Markov will most likely squeeze out another season in our top 4/6.
Someone like Fowler, who may not be available, and could be expensive, but that we will get at least a couple of years out of.

Of course it's all pointless if we can't fix the offense (or acquire a top 6 forward).

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54 minutes ago, RicochetII said:

I've been looking around and as far as LD goes, it looks like the options are pretty limited. 

With Emelin playing poorly, Beaulieu not cracking the top 4, and Pateryn supposedly on the outs, combined with Markov expiring/aging, we're looking at a pretty big turnover in our D core regardless. Might as well start now. We need at least 1 solid top 4 D option until Sergachev, since Markov will most likely squeeze out another season in our top 4/6.
Someone like Fowler, who may not be available, and could be expensive, but that we will get at least a couple of years out of.

Of course it's all pointless if we can't fix the offense (or acquire a top 6 forward).

If you don't make any trades, then I think it's fair to say Weber-Petry-Pateryn down the right side is a decent option. It's probably better than many teams have looking at the total package, with Weber maybe not being elite but Petry more than making up for that as an above-average 2nd pairing guy. The issue remains the left side, where Beaulieu and Markov could be 2nd-pairing guys but neither really in a position to play a full year on the first pairing. Emelin had a great start to the season but has now reverted to being our worst D man again, and Nesterov is no more than a 7th guy IMO. So we still need a puck-moving D man to play the1st pairing. Now it may well be that Sergachev is able to make the jump to the NHL next season but I highly doubt he'll be a top-pairing guy right away. It just means the D would be kind of patchwork, with guys rotating through the first pairing kind of like this season. But essentially, if you protect Weber, Petry, and Beaulieu and leave Emelin exposed and Markov as a UFA, the only guy from next year's 6 that you risk losing is Pateryn, and he should be replaceable via free agency.

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Whoever the GM for the team may be next year there are some huge issues ahead aside from the expansion draft that have to be faced with respect to the Cap. Carey Price has one year remaining at $6.5MM. I have no idea what he will command but Lundquist money is $8.5MM so use that as your base. Can we afford to pay that much for a goalie when we have so many other holes on the team. The other thing to contemplate is that goalies do not seem to command the same trade value as other players so his trade value may be limited. Radulov is a UFA at the end of the season. He has been great this year albeit his play has tailed off some lately and he is looking for term on a new contract. He will be 31 this summer. Plekanec is signed through next year at a mind boggling $6MM hit. Emelin ditto for $4.1MM. DD is a UFA this year and should be gone after this season. That saves $3.5MM next year. What of Markov? He is a UFA coming off a $5.75MM contract so do you re-up him for one more year and at what price? He will be 39 years old next season. GallyA will be an RFA this summer and will be looking for a sizable raise and term. I am thinking he will be looking for $5.5 - $6MM over say 5 years.

I raise all these issues because the reality of the cap system means some of the things people would like to see happen via the trade route are unaffordable for the team at the present time as we are right up against the cap. Emelin needs to be moved this offseason ... no ifs ands or buts. It will not be easy given his cap hit and we may be asked to take salary back that we don't want. Plekanec's contract renders him untradeable so perhaps a buyout will be the route to go with him. Now if the team does not bring Markov back and is able to move Emelin and buys out Plekanec there will be much more flexibility to reshape our roster. But what of Mr. Price? If we are not going to re-sign him then he should be moved this offseason. Thoughts?  

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We had about 1.5 mill in space this year and DD is gone at 3.5 mill. Marky likely takes a pay cut next year (guessing  about a mill). If he signs for one more year, then that money becomes available when Price's contract is up for renewal.

That gives us about 6 mill in room next season. Some of that money and the other spare parts we have kicking around can be used to re sign Rad ( about 1 to 1.5 raise) and Chuck (about an extra 3 to 4 mill long term),,,, and when Emelin's deal expires, some of that can be used towards Max. Plek's deal will also be expiring. It all seems manageable right now.

If we're looking to reshape the roster, then that happens by way of trade, meaning salary usually is involved going the other way. If we're simply talking about adding UFA's,, then that's a recipe for disaster IMO.

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On 2/26/2017 at 5:42 AM, BigTed3 said:

To me, there's no such thing as a "proven winner" being good just because their name is on the Cup. 

This.

There is no better example of this than Dominik Hasek. He was lights out the best player int he world for long stretches but couldnt win the cup by himself (and was on a few pretty decent teams during that time).  It took until he was a far inferior player with detroit for him to finally get his rings.

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12 hours ago, eldag said:

Whoever the GM for the team may be next year there are some huge issues ahead aside from the expansion draft that have to be faced with respect to the Cap. Carey Price has one year remaining at $6.5MM. I have no idea what he will command but Lundquist money is $8.5MM so use that as your base. Can we afford to pay that much for a goalie when we have so many other holes on the team. The other thing to contemplate is that goalies do not seem to command the same trade value as other players so his trade value may be limited. Radulov is a UFA at the end of the season. He has been great this year albeit his play has tailed off some lately and he is looking for term on a new contract. He will be 31 this summer. Plekanec is signed through next year at a mind boggling $6MM hit. Emelin ditto for $4.1MM. DD is a UFA this year and should be gone after this season. That saves $3.5MM next year. What of Markov? He is a UFA coming off a $5.75MM contract so do you re-up him for one more year and at what price? He will be 39 years old next season. GallyA will be an RFA this summer and will be looking for a sizable raise and term. I am thinking he will be looking for $5.5 - $6MM over say 5 years.

I raise all these issues because the reality of the cap system means some of the things people would like to see happen via the trade route are unaffordable for the team at the present time as we are right up against the cap. Emelin needs to be moved this offseason ... no ifs ands or buts. It will not be easy given his cap hit and we may be asked to take salary back that we don't want. Plekanec's contract renders him untradeable so perhaps a buyout will be the route to go with him. Now if the team does not bring Markov back and is able to move Emelin and buys out Plekanec there will be much more flexibility to reshape our roster. But what of Mr. Price? If we are not going to re-sign him then he should be moved this offseason. Thoughts?  

Price is signed through next season and I think MB will worry about re-signing him when the time comes. Too hard to predict what else will change between now and January 2018. Maybe Price has a career-ending injury or really falters with his play next year. Maybe we trade him. Maybe we deal Weber or someone else that sheds salary. Maybe Las Vegas takes Emelin or Plekanec off our hands. That said, I suspect he'll get paid something in the 8.5-10M range. Galchenyuk will probably be signed in the 6-6.5M if he takes a long-term deal. And Radulov will probably get 5.5-6M on a 4-5 year-deal and up to 7M on a 1-3 year deal. That's what it's going to cost.

So where can we save? Well as you said, Desharnais is done here. It makes sense to try and promote some cheaper youngsters and use them to fill the holes (McCarron, Hudon, maybe Sergachev or Scherbak). But I suspect the team will look for a way to trade Emelin if he's still here in the summer, as well as Plekanec if there are takers. If we can't get rid of someone to clear up space, then maybe Andrei Markov doesn't come back after all. He's useful at about 3.5-4M a season, but more than that becomes difficult to swallow when there are so many lacunes on the left side of the defence. Frankly, the best way to clear space would be to trade Weber (I've proposed a number of possible things MB could look at, but a deal for something like RNH + Nurse would allow us to spread the Weber money over two useful players instead of just one). MB probably doesn't even think about that possibility, but it would likely help. Priority #1 should be re-signing Galchenyuk long-term and then making the rest fit from there.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Price is signed through next season and I think MB will worry about re-signing him when the time comes. Too hard to predict what else will change between now and January 2018. Maybe Price has a career-ending injury or really falters with his play next year. Maybe we trade him. Maybe we deal Weber or someone else that sheds salary. Maybe Las Vegas takes Emelin or Plekanec off our hands. That said, I suspect he'll get paid something in the 8.5-10M range. Galchenyuk will probably be signed in the 6-6.5M if he takes a long-term deal. And Radulov will probably get 5.5-6M on a 4-5 year-deal and up to 7M on a 1-3 year deal. That's what it's going to cost.

So where can we save? Well as you said, Desharnais is done here. It makes sense to try and promote some cheaper youngsters and use them to fill the holes (McCarron, Hudon, maybe Sergachev or Scherbak). But I suspect the team will look for a way to trade Emelin if he's still here in the summer, as well as Plekanec if there are takers. If we can't get rid of someone to clear up space, then maybe Andrei Markov doesn't come back after all. He's useful at about 3.5-4M a season, but more than that becomes difficult to swallow when there are so many lacunes on the left side of the defence. Frankly, the best way to clear space would be to trade Weber (I've proposed a number of possible things MB could look at, but a deal for something like RNH + Nurse would allow us to spread the Weber money over two useful players instead of just one). MB probably doesn't even think about that possibility, but it would likely help. Priority #1 should be re-signing Galchenyuk long-term and then making the rest fit from there.

The best way to clear space is to win the cup so we can get rid of DD, Emelin, Markov and Plekanec by any possible means.

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I'm hoping that we can get Duchene.

What do people think of Duchene for a 1st this year, Gallagher and Beaulieu? I think that would get the job done. Centre looks pretty good for the playoffs with Duchene, Galchenyuk, Plekanec, Mcarron/Mitchell.

I think we could part with Beaulieu with the prospects of Juulsen/Sergahev as well as the addition of Benn.

I think Gallagher could use a fresh start and could be a valuable piece as part of a package.

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12 minutes ago, Concreteveins1 said:

I'm hoping that we can get Duchene.

What do people think of Duchene for a 1st this year, Gallagher and Beaulieu? I think that would get the job done. Centre looks pretty good for the playoffs with Duchene, Galchenyuk, Plekanec, Mcarron/Mitchell.

I think we could part with Beaulieu with the prospects of Juulsen/Sergahev as well as the addition of Benn.

I think Gallagher could use a fresh start and could be a valuable piece as part of a package.

Our 1st should be around 22-25th this year, Gally, IMO, is just having a down year, and Beau, is still young. I would think that the Avs would jump at the chance to make that trade, but I don't think that MB would make it. Although, MB "might" be waiting 'til the price comes down. 

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13 minutes ago, Concreteveins1 said:

I'm hoping that we can get Duchene.

What do people think of Duchene for a 1st this year, Gallagher and Beaulieu? I think that would get the job done. Centre looks pretty good for the playoffs with Duchene, Galchenyuk, Plekanec, Mcarron/Mitchell.

I think we could part with Beaulieu with the prospects of Juulsen/Sergahev as well as the addition of Benn.

I think Gallagher could use a fresh start and could be a valuable piece as part of a package.

Id make the deal, yes. It would suck to lose Beau and Gally but you have to give to get.  

That said, I dont think its enough. I think Colorado is looking for a ridiculous amount - and im not even sure they are serious about trading him tbh.

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Just now, maas_art said:

Id make the deal, yes. It would suck to lose Beau and Gally but you have to give to get.  

That said, I dont think its enough. I think Colorado is looking for a ridiculous amount - and im not even sure they are serious about trading him tbh.

Agreed, I'd be shocked if they actually trade him. The ask seems ridiculous, something's fishy IMO.

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1 minute ago, maas_art said:

Id make the deal, yes. It would suck to lose Beau and Gally but you have to give to get.  

That said, I dont think its enough. I think Colorado is looking for a ridiculous amount - and im not even sure they are serious about trading him tbh.

Not sergachev but the rest seems doable. If it isn't enough i wouldn't be opposed to one of our extra 2nds in exchange for a lower pick and maybe an ahl body coming back our way if we need something. 

Losing Gallagher isn't great but if Shaw can pick it up, byron gets hot, mccarron or hudon get a shot, we might end up better off. 

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13 minutes ago, RicochetII said:

Not sergachev but the rest seems doable. If it isn't enough i wouldn't be opposed to one of our extra 2nds in exchange for a lower pick and maybe an ahl body coming back our way if we need something. 

Losing Gallagher isn't great but if Shaw can pick it up, byron gets hot, mccarron or hudon get a shot, we might end up better off. 

Yeah i actually think we'd be a lot better off in the short term. You could probably easily nab a guy like Vanek or Cammalleri for picks so your forwards would be set.   Id be a little worried about our blueline but i am either way unless MB can somehow grab a legit top 4 in the next few hours...

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I wish people could realize that trading for Duchene does not make any sense for the Canadiens. We do not have enough of a solid core, thanks to our ineffective GM, to be able to deal from surplus strength. GallyB may not be having a great year but he is a heart and soul guy who is still young, has a cap friendly deal, and is indispensable to our short term goal (a Cup). We are already depleted on D and are hugely dependent on our futures named Juulsen and Sergychev so dealing them makes no sense. Likewise, the jury is out on McCarron but he has some talent and great size which is not in abundance in this franchise. He is also only 21 years old. What we CAN trade right now is one of Emelin or Bo, plus any combination of 'Ghetto, Hudon, Carr, Lehkonen, DLR, and Byron plus draft picks.  That should be more than sufficient to pry loose a Radim Vrbata or Tomas Vanek or both, for that matter. I do not understand why Colorado is trying to trade young stars like Duchene and Landeskog and they are demanding a huge price for each that we cannot afford, in my humble opinion.

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Trading for Duchene makes sense because he is a top line centre and is locked up for next two years. This team hasn't had a a guy who can put up points, win faceoffs, and is responsible in the defensive end in a long time.

Apart from expendable parts and minor additions going forward, the core of this team would be excellent with Duchene, Paciorietty, Galchenyuk, Danault and Shaw up front. Weber, Petry, Benn and Sergachev on the rear. And the goalies, obviously, get it done.

And we just acquired Dwight king from LA

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Honestly I am happy that MB addressed a need on this team and got bigger for the stretch run. In years before playoffs have been a rough go for the smaller players on this roster like Plekanec, Byron and Gally. There are now great options on both the back end and up front for Julien to run with.

King and Martinsen are great pick ups and will do mean things for this team.

They are going to be very hard to play against.

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3 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

How's this for a line,,, King,, Ott,, Mac. :)

 

... and there are 2 of them. It's a sign! (That they will be the ones to blame? :p)

I'd still like to give Hudon a look. I don't think he'll be a liability at a time when we need to win and maybe want to be safe, but he could potentially help spark the offense a bit.
Risk is low in my estimate. Unless Gallagher, Byron, Shaw, Lehkonen, Plekanec, suddenly start producing.

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Thought it would be interesting to play around with capfriendly's Armchair GM set-up and build a team from scratch, with the only catch being that you have to create a 23-man roster that fits under the cap. Not so bad getting around this because of some star young players on bargain deals right now, but this is what I came up with... give it a try yourself and see what roster you'd build:

Pacioretty-McDavid-Seguin

Panarin-Tavares-Laine

Marchand-Johansen-Simmonds

Huberdeau-Galchenyuk-Drouin

Jenner, Pastrnak as extra forwards

 

Hedman-Karlsson

Josi-Ekblad

Nurse-Trouba

Carlo

 

Price

Murray

 

With 3.8M to spare! Could obviously use that to upgrade slightly somewhere, but the guys I chose were IMO very good value for the money. Three Habs made by roster, but I'd welcome any of the others on the Canadiens if we could ever acquire them!

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