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#31 Carey Price 2016-17


habs_93
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53 minutes ago, habs_93 said:

Let's look at Corsica.hockey's goalie data. In 2017, Carey has the 5th highest 5-on-5 high danger save percentage among goalies who've played at least 400 minutes of 5-on-5. His .863 is behind only Rinne, Schneider, Holtby, and Allen. He's still in the top 10 for 5-on-5 medium danger save percentage, right at #10 with .930. However, his 5-on-5 low danger save percentage is 30th out of the 30 goalies on that list, at .943—almost three standard deviations below the mean of .979. That's significant. His overall 5-on-5 save percentage is .921—functionally identical to the average of those aforementioned goalies, .919. There's something up.

The worst goalie overall on that list? Tuukka Rask. Wonder why Claude Julien was fired?

What do you think is up though? Injury? lack of confidence? Desire to see the coach fired?     

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6 minutes ago, maas_art said:

What do you think is up though? Injury? lack of confidence? Desire to see the coach fired?     

A guy can dream :lol:

It's got to be between the ears on some level, tough.  Goaltending, especially those low danger shots that '93 is talking about, seems like it should mostly come down to positioning.  You'd assume that Carey must have a conscious knowledge of where to be in a given situation - after all, sound positioning is pretty much the rock that his career's been built on.  So how can everything suddenly turn around so quickly?  As you said, unless there's an injury that's keeping him from moving where he wants to you'd have to think it must be something mental.

Sports are a funny thing like that - some days you feel like you can't do anything wrong and then other days you're making dumb mistakes.  It's easy to think to yourself "okay, just focus, put that behind you and play like you usually do", but in my experience that's never really worked.  It's one thing to have a night or two off, though, and another for it to happen over such an extended stretch.

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24 minutes ago, maas_art said:

What do you think is up though? Injury? lack of confidence? Desire to see the coach fired?     

No clue. If we were talking about a few games (I'll be completely unscientific and say under 10 or so), I'd be willing to call it a quirk of sample size. Save percentage—even 5-on-5—fluctuates pretty wildly with small samples. This seems tangible, however. I can't remember where, but I could've sworn someone did some research about goalie injuries and the impact on low/medium/high danger save percentages being roughly equal. Which makes me think it's more a mental/confidence/fatigue thing. This is something publicly available data aren't good at assessing.

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IMO things started going downhill for CP after he got run by Palmeiri. What's the connection? The only thing I can think of is that it tweeked something and he's not 100% healthy. I don't really buy the new father excuse. He's been just as poor on the road, and i'm sure he can afford some help at home in the form of a nanny, if it's an issue affecting his work. Quite possible he's upset with MT after he was pulled awhile back, but it's hard to buy that as an excuse for not being a pro and sulking.

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1 hour ago, H_T_L said:

IMO things started going downhill for CP after he got run by Palmeiri. What's the connection? The only thing I can think of is that it tweeked something and he's not 100% healthy. I don't really buy the new father excuse. He's been just as poor on the road, and i'm sure he can afford some help at home in the form of a nanny, if it's an issue affecting his work. Quite possible he's upset with MT after he was pulled awhile back, but it's hard to buy that as an excuse for not being a pro and sulking.

IMO, Price is nursing an injury and is concerned about being run again. It seemed to show on one of Arizona's goals where he stood upright as if he was getting ready to be knocked down instead of playing the puck. Totally out of character for the way he usually plays the puck. 

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3 hours ago, H_T_L said:

IMO things started going downhill for CP after he got run by Palmeiri. What's the connection? The only thing I can think of is that it tweeked something and he's not 100% healthy.

Two things though:

1) After last year, if there's any sort of injury you'd better believe the coaching staff (Waite specifically) would be hounding Price to rest. Its not like he's playing well.

2) If he's injured he shouldnt be making the really tough stops, which he is.  Its so weird when you see him rob guy after guy & then let in a shot most bush-league goalies would have stopped. 

 

I have to believe its mental. Maybe not the new father thing but some type of confidence or lack of confidence in positioning sort of thing.  Hopefully they can solve it soon.
 

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I don't believe he's injured and I don't believe he's not playing well to spite the coaches. I think Carey has too much pride to do something like that. Why do I not think he's injured? Well, for one, his numbers have been poor for three months, this isn't a sudden change in how he's playing and he's had some good games in that span too, so it's not like he's been persistently unable to play well. Like Jed, I also think he and the team would have learned from past mistakes of trying to let him play through injury. Lastly, we saw Price stay in goal in that game where he was getting shelled and if there was even a minor injury, you'd have to think the coaches would have pulled him at that point in a meaningless game.

The way Price has been playing simply looks like he has lost focus. He's missing some easy saves. He's going out of his net to play the puck and moving it too slowly or not seeing opposition players around him. He's staying down a lot more on the ice. Some of that looks like fatigue, some of it looks like concentration issues. It could simply be that after having missed most of last year, his body is having trouble re-adjusting to a full season of work. It could also be related to his home situation and not getting enough sleep (or restful sleep) with his child there.

For the season, his 5v5 save percentage is actually close to his average in recent seasons, albeit as I posted above, given this number was well above average for the first two months, it's actually a fair bit lower in the last 2 months. But what has really changed is his save percentage short-handed, which is substantially lower and which probably accounts for a large part of why the Habs PK has been so awful this year. If you look at scoring chances generated against while we're down a man, we're actually fairly comparable if not slightly better than last year. Subban was one of our best penalty killers last season, but the numbers show Weber has been just as effective, so that change doesn't account for a significant difference one way or the other. Was actually a bit surprised to see this but some of our best penalty killers over the past two years have been Nathan Beaulieu, Max Pacioretty, Jeff Petry, and Mark Barberio. Conversely, guys like Mitchell, Emelin, and Pateryn have struggled in that role.

The other factor that's hurt the PK is simply the number of penalty kills we've had to make this year. We've already had 196 kills in 56 games thus far (2nd most in league, 3.5 per game), compared to 254 for all of last year (3.09 per game). So while our PK efficicieny is only about 2% behind last year, we're having to kill off an extra penalty every two games, which hurts in the long run. The extra PK's likely also contribute to some degree to goalie fatigue, as this is a point in the game where goalies are more active and having to concentrate and get up and down a lot. So to me, it's probably a combination of not having played a full year last year, the extra PK work, having a baby at home, and just some bad luck and poor concentration. I don't think this has anything to do with injury nor with Michel Therrien. I do believe Price will be better but it's clear we can't lean on him to be a .935 goalie all the time. That was never a sustainable or realistic stat to begin with though, given how few goalies in NHL history have ever posted the types of numbers Carey put up two years ago.

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Per HIO

Part of Price‘s problems might be related to the Canadiens terrible penalty killing record. At even strength Price’s save percentage is third in the league at .935. He ranks 32nd in PK save% at .853. Since the Christmas break, Price is 6-8-3 overall with a 3.15 GAA and .897 save%. On the road since Christmas, he has a 3.25 GAA and .886 save%.

 
 
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Time to trade carey

 

http://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/breaking-news-incriminating-information-concerning-carey-price

 

According to the well-respected Montreal journalist Claude Poirier, a story that happened off the ice might be behind his lack of focus on the ice.

This morning on 91.9 Montreal Sports*, Poirier (who’s close to multiple official police sources) stated that an incident is disturbing Price. 

As per Poirier, Carey Price has asked his lawyer to go to a bar in Montreal for taking apart incriminating video of

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2 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

Time to trade carey

 

http://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/breaking-news-incriminating-information-concerning-carey-price

 

According to the well-respected Montreal journalist Claude Poirier, a story that happened off the ice might be behind his lack of focus on the ice.

This morning on 91.9 Montreal Sports*, Poirier (who’s close to multiple official police sources) stated that an incident is disturbing Price. 

As per Poirier, Carey Price has asked his lawyer to go to a bar in Montreal for taking apart incriminating video of

That's really vague. Hard to make heads or tails about what they're alluding to.

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13 hours ago, Regis22 said:

Time to trade carey

 

http://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/breaking-news-incriminating-information-concerning-carey-price

 

According to the well-respected Montreal journalist Claude Poirier, a story that happened off the ice might be behind his lack of focus on the ice.

This morning on 91.9 Montreal Sports*, Poirier (who’s close to multiple official police sources) stated that an incident is disturbing Price. 

As per Poirier, Carey Price has asked his lawyer to go to a bar in Montreal for taking apart incriminating video of

 

Kind of reminds me of the 'Darkest Hour in Habs History' or whatever the French media called it back then, which ultimately turned out to be a complete non-story about the Kostitsyns and some dude with questionable background.

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On ‎14‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 10:58 AM, kinot-2 said:

Save percentage by month:

October: .954

November: .944

December: .899

January: .906

February: .879

 

Dec 16 - he got pulled after letting in 4 goals against SJ and stared down the bench , or the  coach, depending on your view .

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/carey-price-start-saturday-pulled-staring-bench/

He hasn't been very good until the coaching change

 

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On 2017-02-21 at 4:40 PM, Regis22 said:

Time to trade carey

 

http://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/breaking-news-incriminating-information-concerning-carey-price

 

According to the well-respected Montreal journalist Claude Poirier, a story that happened off the ice might be behind his lack of focus on the ice.

This morning on 91.9 Montreal Sports*, Poirier (who’s close to multiple official police sources) stated that an incident is disturbing Price. 

As per Poirier, Carey Price has asked his lawyer to go to a bar in Montreal for taking apart incriminating video of

This feels like fake news to me. 

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