Jump to content
The Official Site of the Montréal Canadiens
Canadiens de Montreal

#6 Shea Weber 2016-17


habs_93
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, habs_93 said:

That plus/minus is wholly unfit for purpose is really not news. Copious amounts of quality literature on the subject exists, and I don't feel quite so arrogant as to redo that work. A brief summary, though: Goals are rare in hockey, and heavily influenced by luck. A goal being scored by the opposing team while you're on the ice is also influenced by the other four skaters and your goalie. Players can (and have) gotten plusses and minuses while on a change. And so on.

As for leadership: believe what you wish, but don't be surprised if other people don't accept unsupported supposition as an article of faith.

Despite the order for uniformity, l do believe I'll pass.

For those that don't like the +/- , I personally believe it's a lot better indicator than any of the advanced stats like corsie or whatever. There are quite a few head coaches and management that believe the same. It is a lot easier to skew corsie and advanced stats depending on who is keeping or tallying them. Shots attempted and so on, can be meaningless if there just throwing pucks on net because they're behind or maybe they believe the other teams goalie is weak. Quality scoring chances count for much more. Even puck posesion it depends on what you do with the puck. +/- is based on 5 on 5 and if more goals are scored against your team or for your team when your on the ice. Taking away pp's is one player scores 5 but the other team scores 7 and the one player is on the ice for 6 against than his 5 don't mean much. That is why players like Toews Bergeron and like Weber are always on the Olympics ect. Whatever I want to watch this years team and could care less what someone on Nashville does unless were playing them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can believe what you like, but if you have no evidence to support it, no one else need consider it. You say "it's easier to skew [Corsi] and advanced stats depending on who is keeping or tallying them". That's an interesting assertion. What, to you, is "skewing"?

As for plus/minus. Plus/minus is derived from NHL RTSS data, which comes directly from the scorekeepers in the arenas. If you think that's correct, then you can't have any problem with the tallying of Corsi events, because the missed shots and blocked shots used to derive Corsi come from the same system. You mention "quality scoring chances". Can you define them? I'm sure you'd agree that shots in closer to the net as opposed to blue line shots are—even if we can't quantify traffic in front of the goalie—more likely to be "high quality". Then I think you'd be interested to know that most of the expected goal/scoring chance metrics in use by modern statistics people take event location into account. The location data from RTSS isn't great, but in large enough quantities it's not really important that it's not perfect.

You seem to be insinuating that individuals involved with possession statistics propagate error in their data to fit their narratives, or present data in a dishonest fashion. If one doesn't have experience with the peer review process, such thoughts can seem reasonable. But recognize that there are many, many qualified people writing and talking about hockey statistics. And all of them (even guys like me who aren't so qualified :lol:) are working from the same source of data—NHL RTSS. When people present poor data, there are dozens of people waiting to pounce on it and discredit the conclusions, because everyone can see it's flawed. When people write poor articles, their methodology is harshly criticized. If you're worried about people getting away with baseless ideas, I humbly submit the statistical community is not who you should be suspicious of.

I'm happy to see we agree that data filtered for 5-on-5 is superior to all situations, though. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

For those that don't like the +/- , I personally believe it's a lot better indicator than any of the advanced stats like corsie or whatever. There are quite a few head coaches and management that believe the same. It is a lot easier to skew corsie and advanced stats depending on who is keeping or tallying them. Shots attempted and so on, can be meaningless if there just throwing pucks on net because they're behind or maybe they believe the other teams goalie is weak. Quality scoring chances count for much more. Even puck posesion it depends on what you do with the puck. +/- is based on 5 on 5 and if more goals are scored against your team or for your team when your on the ice. Taking away pp's is one player scores 5 but the other team scores 7 and the one player is on the ice for 6 against than his 5 don't mean much. That is why players like Toews Bergeron and like Weber are always on the Olympics ect. Whatever I want to watch this years team and could care less what someone on Nashville does unless were playing them.

 

Corsi is at it's core is +/- with a much more reliable sample, at the end of the day the way the NHL is played now with goalies all being so good, big and padded the only real way to score and be good consistently is to possess the puck and get shots towards the net. The counter argument that it doesn't account for chances, which there are people who track scoring chances for/against, isn't untrue but neither does +/-. Not all chances result in goals and not all goals are from obvious scoring chance. It's why Pacioretty can go from +38 to -10 in one year, his defensive game didn't get bad enough to justify a 48 goal swing in 1 season. It was factors completely out of his control, like less of the same shots being stopped by the goalie when he's on the ice. The anti possession argument is mostly from fans of teams whose SH% or SV% (PDO) is really high and they're looking for reasons to justify that it'll continue and it basically never does. Yes, there are score effects for sure, a team trailing will get more pucks toward the net generally than a team attempting to protect a lead, a lot of people/sites adjust for that or you could just look at a team's possession numbers when tied or close. 

At the end of the day whether you care about advanced stats or not, the premise is something we can all agree on. Possessing the puck more than opposing teams is a quality that will usually lead to winning more games than you lose in the long run. It's a critically important team wide skill. Yes, you can get around it by having a goalie with a .930 SV% and I'm sure the Canadiens will attempt to show this season but it's a hard way to live. I always find it odd that people actually argue it so vehemently because it seems like other than the fact people are calling the stats advanced, a lot of what is discussed mainstream is pretty simple numbers telling us something that seems like has been accepted by hockey fans for as long as I've followed the game, control the puck, control the flow of the game, get pucks to the net = best chance to win, especially when all goalies are so good. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote from Wilde's 'Glass half full' article:

  • Weber was firing absolute bullets on the power play and killed penalties to boot. He was on for the full duration of a 4-on-3 and for two minutes he showed great courage, blocking shots and making a couple of key clears. In the first period, Weber was on for almost 10 minutes.  In the third period period, Markov and Weber were simply excellent again on a 5-on-3 kill. Markov was out there the entire time, Weber for most of it. Both D were outstanding at a key point. Weber had a strong game throughout.

 

 

http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/call-of-the-wilde-habs-glass-half-full-in-loss-to-sens-1.3117320

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah so far I think we're getting exactly what I expected out of weber.  He's a #1 defensman- just like Subban - but a different type of player.  TSN had an article a little while back where they asked a bunch of GMs what they thought of the trade & not a single one thought either side won. They felt it was fair.

And I agree - for right now, 2016 - its probably pretty even. We cut off our left foot and replaced it with a right foot.  Both necessary - just different.  

The problem still remains that Weber is 4 years older and has a lot more mileage on his bones.  In the short term, however, I quite enjoy seeing him out there. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah so far I think we're getting exactly what I expected out of weber.  He's a #1 defensman- just like Subban - but a different type of player.  TSN had an article a little while back where they asked a bunch of GMs what they thought of the trade & not a single one thought either side won. They felt it was fair.

And I agree - for right now, 2016 - its probably pretty even. We cut off our left foot and replaced it with a right foot.  Both necessary - just different.  

The problem still remains that Weber is 4 years older and has a lot more mileage on his bones.  In the short term, however, I quite enjoy seeing him out there. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree they are different players. I wish he hadn't backed off in the 3 on 3 with the break, but if had stayed up and missed and it went back then people would of complained he couldn't get back. The two are different styles. I am impressed with how hard he shoots the puck with even wristers or half slappers. Like Toews said he was glad he was out of his division. I'm sure the eastern conference will get to know him. Toews totally ran over Subban at their blue line the other night when he tried to step up, so different players. I would love to have them both. Missed Subban on the 3 on 3.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, maas_art said:

And I agree - for right now, 2016 - its probably pretty even. We cut off our left foot and replaced it with a right foot.  Both necessary - just different.  

Subban is the 2nd best "left foot" after Karlsson and Weber is definitely the best "right foot" in the NHL but in my opinion those playstyles aren't equally valuable. Weber is great killing penalties, and he's great at limiting shot quality. Problem is that his playstyle relies on being a man mountain, he likes to set up in front of the net, block shots, impede scoring plays, and block passes. He's really good at keeping the opponents out of the slot, but the problem is you're still in your own end and not creating any offense. On an individual shift it's fine but if your #1 guy is getting 25 minutes a night and spends 15 of them in his own end breaking up passes to the slot you're still surrendering a ton of shots from the point, and in a game like hockey where so many goals are cheeky deflections that isn't ideal. 

The other thing for me is I don't know why the team needed Weber's playstyle over Subban's. When you have the best goalie in the world you don't need a guy that makes it easier for the goalie but harder for the team to score goals. Carey Price won the Vezina trophy playing behind Subban, he's just outrageously good no matter what kind of shots your team surrenders. It's far more important to have Pacioretty or Radulov in the offensive zone creating chances than to limit the shot quality against Price. The team has struggled to score goals for a while, part of that is low scoring talent which has been fixed with Radulov and Lehkonen. The other part that hasn't been fixed is low shot volume because the team is stuck in its own end and never gets a chance to set up in the offensive zone. Swapping Subban for Weber hurts that side of the game a lot, especially when it's already really bad because of coaching. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/15/2016 at 4:47 PM, tony5775 said:

If your on the ice for more goals against then for, that is hardly meaningless. Not to mention the leadership on the ice and in the dressing room that Weber brings. Time to get on board.

Plus/Minus has got to be the single most useless stat in the league.    You're in the penalty box, step on the ice just as the goal goes in on the PP ... it's counted as regular strength and you get a nice MINUS.    Other than the penalty, how did you have any ability to control that goal?   How do you have any ability for the other 4 skaters on your line being subpar defensively?    Or you tend to be on the ice more than others etc etc

 

Advanced Metrics clearly show PK is a superior Dman to Weber.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Noob616 said:

Subban is the 2nd best "left foot" after Karlsson and Weber is definitely the best "right foot" in the NHL but in my opinion those playstyles aren't equally valuable. Weber is great killing penalties, and he's great at limiting shot quality. Problem is that his playstyle relies on being a man mountain, he likes to set up in front of the net, block shots, impede scoring plays, and block passes. He's really good at keeping the opponents out of the slot, but the problem is you're still in your own end and not creating any offense. On an individual shift it's fine but if your #1 guy is getting 25 minutes a night and spends 15 of them in his own end breaking up passes to the slot you're still surrendering a ton of shots from the point, and in a game like hockey where so many goals are cheeky deflections that isn't ideal. 

The other thing for me is I don't know why the team needed Weber's playstyle over Subban's. When you have the best goalie in the world you don't need a guy that makes it easier for the goalie but harder for the team to score goals. Carey Price won the Vezina trophy playing behind Subban, he's just outrageously good no matter what kind of shots your team surrenders. It's far more important to have Pacioretty or Radulov in the offensive zone creating chances than to limit the shot quality against Price. The team has struggled to score goals for a while, part of that is low scoring talent which has been fixed with Radulov and Lehkonen. The other part that hasn't been fixed is low shot volume because the team is stuck in its own end and never gets a chance to set up in the offensive zone. Swapping Subban for Weber hurts that side of the game a lot, especially when it's already really bad because of coaching. 

Very well put.  

And like you, I dont understand why we we would cut off our left foot to get a right foot.  Why not get rid of an appendix & have both a left foot and a right foot! :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

What I find funny, is the 2nd game against Ottawa ... Weber got caught flat footed and nobody mentions it ... PK does that, and everyone is up in arms about how bad he is at D.

It's the narrative. Remember the Twain quote, "Give a man a reputation as an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon."

Conventional hockey wisdom says that Shea Weber is an elite defenceman because he's "solid", provides "leadership", etc etc. It doesn't matter how much evidence goes against it, this will not change. Conventional hockey wisdom says that P.K. Subban is a risky player because he's a "showoff", he takes an inordinate amount of risk, etc etc. Reality doesn't matter. The narrative reigns supreme.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, habs_93 said:

It's the narrative. Remember the Twain quote, "Give a man a reputation as an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon."

Conventional hockey wisdom says that Shea Weber is an elite defenceman because he's "solid", provides "leadership", etc etc. It doesn't matter how much evidence goes against it, this will not change. Conventional hockey wisdom says that P.K. Subban is a risky player because he's a "showoff", he takes an inordinate amount of risk, etc etc. Reality doesn't matter. The narrative reigns supreme.

 

Yup, the narrative is all the matters apparently for a great number of people ... including MB/MT

 

I mean Weber is still a good/great dman ... but he's no PK. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, habs_93 said:

Conventional hockey wisdom says that P.K. Subban is a risky player because he's a "showoff", he takes an inordinate amount of risk, etc etc. Reality doesn't matter. The narrative reigns supreme.

It started draft day & he's never been able to shake it.

On his post-draft interview he said (paraphrasing) "you watch baby, im gonna be with the big club soon! woo hoo!" or something to that effect.  He didnt do the typical "well im going to work hard & listen to my coaches & when im ready I'll get the call"   

From that day forward the media (especially the french media) has targeted him as a showoff. Add to that the fact that he's a "happy guy" who dares to smile in the 24 hr period after a loss & its frankly a surprise he wasnt driven out of town sooner. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Solid again last night,he sure came as advertised. I find that Beau is slowly starting to come out of his offensive shell with Webber as his partner. another thing I am seeing is Beau seems to be taking some defensive cues from Webbers game that make him a more reliable Dman so far so good it will be interesting to watch him develop this season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another goal tonight, but the analytics say its a bad deal. perhaps the analytics like ours last year with an AHL team aren't as reliable and Nashville is a little closer to the AHL than us. MB and MT geniuses daring to buck the trend or just guys who've been around the game for a lifetime? Either way Weber is making them look smarter or some others......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Habberwacky said:

Another goal tonight, but the analytics say its a bad deal. perhaps the analytics like ours last year with an AHL team aren't as reliable and Nashville is a little closer to the AHL than us. MB and MT geniuses daring to buck the trend or just guys who've been around the game for a lifetime? Either way Weber is making them look smarter or some others......

Yes, analytics tell us the deal is a bad trade. Weber has been an average possession player on a good possession team, whereas Subban was a stud possession player on a weak possession team. I don't think anyone said Weber would be bad though, and I think many of us thought Weber and Subban could provide similar value for the first 2-3 years of the deal. But Weber's advanced metrics have to be worrisome and the impact of this trade down the line remains highly unlikely to be in our favor. If we win a Cup in the next 2-3 years, then the trade is a win. If we don't, you have to wonder if Subban could have won a Cup here if we had dumped Therrien instead.

As for this year, the head to head thus far doesn't really tell us Weber is a better player. He's done well, but Subban has had success in Nashville too:

- Going into tonight, Weber had 1 goal, 4 assists in 5 games. Subban had 2 goals, 3 assists in 5 games.

- Weber has a Corsi of 43%, Subban marginally better at 44%, so neither player is having much success as of yet. But Subban has traditionally been over 50%, whereas Weber is more likely to stay where he is. Weber's game is to allow the opponent to take the shot and just sit back and clear rebounds and/or take the body after that's done. Subban is more proactive trying to gain possession without giving up the shot or scoring attempt.

- Weber's PDO is incredibly high at 112. Subban's is incredibly low at 92. Suffice it to say, the Preds are not going to continue to have a shooting percentage of 1% with Subban on the ice, nor are the Habs going to continue scoring at 14% and getting a save percentage over 97% with Weber on. Those numbers always regress to the mean, so that predicts that Subban's luck and stats will improve, while Weber's will likely dip.

In any case, I'm happy the Habs are doing well, and perhaps the trade can be a win for both teams. But I still believe for the time being that the Habs would be a better team with Subban instead of Weber and an even better team than that if they had made a coaching change.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Yes, analytics tell us the deal is a bad trade. Weber has been an average possession player on a good possession team, whereas Subban was a stud possession player on a weak possession team. I don't think anyone said Weber would be bad though

Maybe not bad, but I will readily contend he isn't elite anymore. Nothing about the (exceptionally, ridiculously) early returns goes against this. On the bright side, the extreme decline hasn't happened yet. Less positively, Shea Weber is about the same player he's been for the last three seasons. And that's the problem.

And no, Weber getting individual power play points will not save this team. Tonight is the same exact stuff we've been struggling with for years: we won thanks to luck and Carey Price. Weber simply hasn't been an impact player the way a legitimately elite #1 is in the modern NHL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Strong start to the season, leading the team in points. He came as advertised and seems to fit in nicely, and that blast from the point is really fun to watch :4845:

Reminds me a bit of the Sheldon Souray days in Montreal, who was probably the last guy who could consistently shoot the puck like that. No, Marc-Andre Bergeron doesn't count.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...