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#6 Shea Weber 2016-17


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6 minutes ago, PuckPundit said:

After Chicago fell victim to his one-timer equalizer, they never again allowed him the time and space to repeat. He was thereafter tightly marked whenever near the puck.

My point is predictability will eventually be neutralized, first by elite teams who catch on quickly compared to other lesser teams.

Which one-timer? He scored a fluke goal to tie the game.

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23 hours ago, PuckPundit said:

After Chicago fell victim to his one-timer equalizer, they never again allowed him the time and space to repeat. He was thereafter tightly marked whenever near the puck.

My point is predictability will eventually be neutralized, first by elite teams who catch on quickly compared to other lesser teams.

Perhaps he'll be neutralized, or at least teams will attempt to neutralize him but that would just leave another seam more open, either way the presence is a major asset on the PP. He won't score at this rate but man, I knew his shot was great and I'm still blown away by how great.

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44 minutes ago, roy_133 said:

Perhaps he'll be neutralized, or at least teams will attempt to neutralize him but that would just leave another seam more open, either way the presence is a major asset on the PP. He won't score at this rate but man, I knew his shot was great and I'm still blown away by how great.

And who would want to block a shot that was a howitzer? 

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3 hours ago, roy_133 said:

Perhaps he'll be neutralized, or at least teams will attempt to neutralize him but that would just leave another seam more open, either way the presence is a major asset on the PP. He won't score at this rate but man, I knew his shot was great and I'm still blown away by how great.

Same here, I knew he had a bomb but that shot is just ridiculous. Also agreed on coverage, sure they can try and take his shot away but it's risky when short-handed and it's not like Markov, Galchenyuk, Radulov etc. are unable to move the puck around. He won't keep scoring at the same pace but simply having him on the PP is a major threat, he requires a ton of attention from the defending team which gives us options.

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7 hours ago, ChiLla said:

Same here, I knew he had a bomb but that shot is just ridiculous. Also agreed on coverage, sure they can try and take his shot away but it's risky when short-handed and it's not like Markov, Galchenyuk, Radulov etc. are unable to move the puck around. He won't keep scoring at the same pace but simply having him on the PP is a major threat, he requires a ton of attention from the defending team which gives us options.

It's crazy, I still dislike the Subban trade but the upgrade from Subban's wild windups and inaccurate point shot to this is unbelievable. 

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8 hours ago, roy_133 said:

It's crazy, I still dislike the Subban trade but the upgrade from Subban's wild windups and inaccurate point shot to this is unbelievable. 

Well and thats the thing. I think this trade may end up working out for us simply because we traded one type of defenseman for another & maybe we needed the 'other' more - however, and this is the big one for me: Even if we win this trade I feel we got way worse than market value for Subban.    Weber + 1st or Weber + top prosect would have been much more in  tune with the perceived value.
 

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On ‎15‎/‎11‎/‎2016 at 6:45 PM, maas_art said:

Well and thats the thing. I think this trade may end up working out for us simply because we traded one type of defenseman for another & maybe we needed the 'other' more - however, and this is the big one for me: Even if we win this trade I feel we got way worse than market value for Subban.    Weber + 1st or Weber + top prosect would have been much more in  tune with the perceived value.
 

I hear what you are saying but the market is set by what the Gm's think players are worth. I am pretty sure a lot of Gm's would have done the same deal.

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16 hours ago, ramcharger440 said:

I hear what you are saying but the market is set by what the Gm's think players are worth. I am pretty sure a lot of Gm's would have done the same deal.

You can just look at the team Canada selections and who's helping to choose anyone from Yserman to Babcock to Hitchcock Jullien and others. Weber was a first selection Subban wasn't even there. I know some not all fans don't agree. I will say I'm sure there are GM's that probably thought that the Habs got the better deal. When Subban learns when to take chances and when to keep it simple he'll be great. Weber is solid maybe not flashy but dependable and he doesn't get taken off his game either.

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8 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

You can just look at the team Canada selections and who's helping to choose anyone from Yserman to Babcock to Hitchcock Jullien and others. Weber was a first selection Subban wasn't even there. I know some not all fans don't agree. I will say I'm sure there are GM's that probably thought that the Habs got the better deal. When Subban learns when to take chances and when to keep it simple he'll be great. Weber is solid maybe not flashy but dependable and he doesn't get taken off his game either.

There are definitely GM's who thought Montreal won and others who thought Nashville won. But the Team Canada thing has little bearing. You might find guys who preferred Weber because

1. They are familiar with him and he has more experience internationally.

2. They have bought into the narrative that Subban is a risky defensive player, even though the stats show Weber is more of a risk.

But many of us who believe Nashville won the trade have stated unequivocally that it's very possible Weber has a better year than Subban now or that he allows us to come out ahead in the short term. I still believe Subban is the better overall player now and going into the future, but Weber's shot and worth on the PP might be enough to do more here when combined with Price shutting the door on everything else (i.e. maybe a PP goal or two a game is all we need when Price is on point). BUT there is a huge difference between choosing a player now for a short series and choosing a player for a full NHL season and playoffs and for 8-10 years down the line. Ask the same GM's today whether they would rather have Weber or Subban if they had to select their line-ups for the 2022 Olympics today... I'd venture a guess more GM's would feel more comfortable hedging their bets on a 33-year-old Subban than a 37 year-old Weber. Well both guys will still be under contract to their respective NHL teams at that time, so 15-20 games in season one of the trade don't tell us who has won the deal, nor do I think Subban has played that badly thus far in Nasvhille. He's not being featured on their PP, since Laviolette has been going Josi plus 4 forwards on the first wave, so he's getting less help in putting up points, but he only has 3 fewer points than Weber thus far. I don't see Weber as the runaway better player thus far. He's been better over the first 15 games, yes, but  suspect Subban will still end up being better value over the rest of their careers, and that's really what counts unless Weber can win more Cups here than Subban does elsewhere.

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Weber is doing what he is paid to do, cannot fault the player for bringing what he brings. His character is rock solid too, he came to Montreal knowing that he was traded for a fan favourite yet, he doesn't try to fill those shoes, he came here to do a job and that job is to defend in every sense of the word in 5 on 5 situations, and bring a howy on the PP- good work Shea. 

As for the trade - I have definitely accepted it but still would not pull the trigger on it, even knowing what I know today (having watched both players quite a lot this season). 

 

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3 hours ago, FanFromAB said:

he came here to do a job and that job is to defend in every sense of the word in 5 on 5 situations, and bring a howy on the PP-

Shea Weber has a worse 5-on-5 Corsi For (49.25%) than Subban (52.2%) so far this season, though, so he's not defending in any sense of the word 5-on-5. Of particular note are their 5-on-5 Corsi Against/60 rates—Subban's is lower (54.62) than Weber's (57.60), which means opposing teams get more chances (and thus aren't being defended very well) when "tough, reliable" Shea Weber is on the ice than they do when "risky, individualistic" P. K. Subban is. Subban has predictably been better in every possible respect. The narrative about Weber's "strong start" and Subban's "struggle" comes from—as always—the PDO components. Weber gets to play in front of Carey Price, and has a 5-on-5 on ice save percentage of .978. Subban has had to deal with Nashville goaltending, and has a .915 on ice save percentage. Weber's 5-on-5 on ice shooting percentage is significantly higher than Subban's, 7.69% vs. 5.03%. Subban also has 2 more 5-on-5 primary points in 2 fewer games. Weber is a microcosm of the Canadiens under Therrien: unsustainable and attributable primarily to luck.

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2 minutes ago, habs_93 said:

Shea Weber has a worse 5-on-5 Corsi For (49.25%) than Subban (52.2%) so far this season, though, so he's not defending in any sense of the word 5-on-5. Of particular note are their 5-on-5 Corsi For/60 rates—Subban's is lower (54.62) than Weber's (57.60), which means opposing teams get more chances (and thus aren't being defended very well) when "tough, reliable" Shea Weber is on the ice than they do when "risky, individualistic" P. K. Subban is. Subban has predictably been better in every possible respect. The narrative about Weber's "strong start" and Subban's "struggle" comes from—as always—the PDO components. Weber gets to play in front of Carey Price, and has a 5-on-5 on ice save percentage of .978. Subban has had to deal with Nashville goaltending, and has a .915 on ice save percentage. Weber's 5-on-5 on ice shooting percentage is also significantly higher than Subban's, 7.69% vs. 5.03%. Subban also has 2 more 5-on-5 primary points in 2 fewer games. Weber is a microcosm of the Canadiens under Therrien: unsustainable and attributable primarily to luck.

Yes, I agree with the advanced stats for sure, what I meant was that Shea is doing what he has always done so we can't fault him for that.  Just trying to find something to hang my hat on really! lol Thanks for ruining it though ;)

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I find it interesting how the stats remain totally skewed in PK's favour but the eye test isn't really close. The turnovers of deadly proportion continue in Nashville including on the PP and I have yet to witness one that flagrant by Weber. I would probably like to have PK around after Weber retires,(as he will hopefully have figured it out by then) but am 100% content with this deal at his time and think we have been the team doing a little fleecing at the moment. 

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6 hours ago, Habberwacky said:

I find it interesting how the stats remain totally skewed in PK's favour but the eye test isn't really close. The turnovers of deadly proportion continue in Nashville including on the PP and I have yet to witness one that flagrant by Weber. I would probably like to have PK around after Weber retires,(as he will hopefully have figured it out by then) but am 100% content with this deal at his time and think we have been the team doing a little fleecing at the moment. 

 

well for one thing i highly doubt you watch nashville games....if you do i apologize but i actually do watch nashville games to see p.k and for every turnover there are 5 beautiful plays which result in scoring chances, just like it was here. 

my eye test is weber is basically invisible for most of the game. he makes a nice stick check, throws a big hit and has a big shot on the pp which he admittedly uses more effectively than p.k. This is fine with that conventional wisdom that dmen not being noticeable is a good thing, i know coach T must love it since thats what he certainly wants, but at the end of the day p.k is putting up better corsi numbers based on what i just said, he slants the ice better than just about anyone in the game.

weber is doing what weber does and doing it well, but ultimately, when the game is on the line and we are down a goal, he's not making a difference. thats where we lost the trade IMO, and the more weber regresses back to the mean of being a much more occasional provider of offence, the more this will become obvious

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1 hour ago, jeff33 said:

 

well for one thing i highly doubt you watch nashville games....if you do i apologize but i actually do watch nashville games to see p.k and for every turnover there are 5 beautiful plays which result in scoring chances, just like it was here. 

my eye test is weber is basically invisible for most of the game. he makes a nice stick check, throws a big hit and has a big shot on the pp which he admittedly uses more effectively than p.k. This is fine with that conventional wisdom that dmen not being noticeable is a good thing, i know coach T must love it since thats what he certainly wants, but at the end of the day p.k is putting up better corsi numbers based on what i just said, he slants the ice better than just about anyone in the game.

weber is doing what weber does and doing it well, but ultimately, when the game is on the line and we are down a goal, he's not making a difference. thats where we lost the trade IMO, and the more weber regresses back to the mean of being a much more occasional provider of offence, the more this will become obvious

I have NHL center Ice and have watched a lot of Nashville games and I have seen it quite differently. PK hasn't even been on their first pp unit a lot and in the big shut down situations you don't see him out there nearly as much. INO watching it hasn't been close Weber has been a much more dominate player for the HABS than PK has been for Nashville. I know the advanced stats people don't agree but the plus minus is sure in Weber's favor. Ye s plus minus varies but so do advanced stats because different players not only play the game differently but their individual roles on a team make a huge difference in advanced stats. Players that may have offensive abilities are often times used in defensive role and schemes that may utilize them as a dump and fore check and starting in their own zones a lot. The whole advanced stats can be weighted completely different compared to the players role on the team and how that team plays or even what is asked by the individual within each teams system and personnel on the team. The same player can have completely different stats depending on the team their on or even a different time in their career and what's being asked of them. The last part of what's being asked of them is the crucial part. All players must play within their coaches system and be about team first. Like team Canada players sometimes played differently then what they wanted to play. The eye test I have watched a lot of Nashville and when it's on the line he's not the guy out there defending the lead. PK has great skill when he learns when to take chances and when to make the simple play though it may not be pretty he'll be better. For now though Weber has been solid all around and is exactly what this team needed.

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58 minutes ago, CaptWelly said:

I have NHL center Ice and have watched a lot of Nashville games and I have seen it quite differently. PK hasn't even been on their first pp unit a lot and in the big shut down situations you don't see him out there nearly as much. INO watching it hasn't been close Weber has been a much more dominate player for the HABS than PK has been for Nashville. I know the advanced stats people don't agree but the plus minus is sure in Weber's favor. Ye s plus minus varies but so do advanced stats because different players not only play the game differently but their individual roles on a team make a huge difference in advanced stats. Players that may have offensive abilities are often times used in defensive role and schemes that may utilize them as a dump and fore check and starting in their own zones a lot. The whole advanced stats can be weighted completely different compared to the players role on the team and how that team plays or even what is asked by the individual within each teams system and personnel on the team. The same player can have completely different stats depending on the team their on or even a different time in their career and what's being asked of them. The last part of what's being asked of them is the crucial part. All players must play within their coaches system and be about team first. Like team Canada players sometimes played differently then what they wanted to play. The eye test I have watched a lot of Nashville and when it's on the line he's not the guy out there defending the lead. PK has great skill when he learns when to take chances and when to make the simple play though it may not be pretty he'll be better. For now though Weber has been solid all around and is exactly what this team needed.

 

whew ok ill do this little by little.

1. p.k splits time with josi on the pp, unless they want to overload. true. and they do tend to go josi/ellis first for shutdown, true.

2. i havent seen weber dominate a game yet, at least as i said in my eye test. i mostly dont notice the guy, which again, as i said, isnt necessarily a bad thing when evaluating a dman. but lets not get carried away, weber doesnt dominate, he has moments and otherwise plays it very conservatively. this isnt a guy who even at his absolute best , isnt "dominating" a game, i think thats being objective.

3. so your gonna dismiss the advanced stats, because whatever, but weber has got a big edge in +/- , which might have something to do with the previously alluded to save % of 975 hes getting from price....but who knows i guess, anyway, you then seem to kind of hand wave all the stats out the window so lets not even go there.

4. ultimately your point is hes not the guy defending the lead, which is fair, but my point was that i am more concerned about us playing without the lead, and comparing their respective game breaking ability....i.e weber may be your trusty guy and maybe the guy you want protecting that lead....although really the advanced stats show its not the disparity that the narrative would have you believe.....but regardless, i said i think we lost the trade because p.k is the guy you want when your down. and on this team...counting on being the team with the lead is not a safe bet when we are the ones getting outchanced and outshot every night.  it may not even show too badly in the regular season where we will play a lot of mediocre teams, but im talking about winning a cup,

it has been said " give a man a reputation as an early riser and he can sleep until noon"  thats what it is with p.k and his crazy risky style, and thats what it is with weber and his impenetrable wall of character.  weber is a solid shutdown dman and physical threat who has a great point shot, and who actually does make mistakes and who actually isnt that effective offensively.  p.k is an offensive magician who will inevitably have a lot of turnovers based on how much he plays the puck and the kinds of plays he tries to make, but ultimately plays an almost entirely unacknowledged high level game in his own end. you may feel like we are better off with mr. safety...and your not alone...but i think we would have been better off finding a stay at home guy to hold p.k down and keep the guy who can affect the game at the highest of levels, especially when our roster is so devoid of that anywhere else.

ANYWAY this is the weber thread, and he deserves credit for his strong start and the things he does well. he has certainly been a member of the plus side of the ledger when evaluating our season. i just think everything so far has gone perfectly for him, which is nice for our team, but not a clear indicator of what this guy is going to do for the length of his tenure, and also as far as the sentiment that we can now safely say we won this trade

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18 hours ago, jeff33 said:

 

well for one thing i highly doubt you watch nashville games....if you do i apologize but i actually do watch nashville games to see p.k and for every turnover there are 5 beautiful plays which result in scoring chances, just like it was here. 

my eye test is weber is basically invisible for most of the game. he makes a nice stick check, throws a big hit and has a big shot on the pp which he admittedly uses more effectively than p.k. This is fine with that conventional wisdom that dmen not being noticeable is a good thing, i know coach T must love it since thats what he certainly wants, but at the end of the day p.k is putting up better corsi numbers based on what i just said, he slants the ice better than just about anyone in the game.

weber is doing what weber does and doing it well, but ultimately, when the game is on the line and we are down a goal, he's not making a difference. thats where we lost the trade IMO, and the more weber regresses back to the mean of being a much more occasional provider of offence, the more this will become obvious

Let me know if you want the play by play about PK. I watch a lot of Nashville so doubt away it doesn't matter [EDIT]. I have watched him try to go around two players on the PP give up the puck and cause  a 2 on 1 shorthanded goal last week and play pretty insignificantly  on the second PP unit.  I have watched him go for the big hit at centre ice and give up a break away and could go on but if you saw his mistakes here he is still making them in Nashville. He went through two periods today without a shot and wasn't a factor at all. His ice time is down and he has gone some shifts without seeing the ice after making mistakes. I like the player and he has a long way to go, but no need to believe me. Try watching him play for a while. Here he at least had Price to save him and the fans. That doesn't change the fact he has some issues he needs to fix to be a more complete player. PK would still be here if his play was as magical as some describe be it with stats or platitudes. 

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10 hours ago, jeff33 said:

 

whew ok ill do this little by little.

1. p.k splits time with josi on the pp, unless they want to overload. true. and they do tend to go josi/ellis first for shutdown, true.

2. i havent seen weber dominate a game yet, at least as i said in my eye test. i mostly dont notice the guy, which again, as i said, isnt necessarily a bad thing when evaluating a dman. but lets not get carried away, weber doesnt dominate, he has moments and otherwise plays it very conservatively. this isnt a guy who even at his absolute best , isnt "dominating" a game, i think thats being objective.

3. so your gonna dismiss the advanced stats, because whatever, but weber has got a big edge in +/- , which might have something to do with the previously alluded to save % of 975 hes getting from price....but who knows i guess, anyway, you then seem to kind of hand wave all the stats out the window so lets not even go there.

4. ultimately your point is hes not the guy defending the lead, which is fair, but my point was that i am more concerned about us playing without the lead, and comparing their respective game breaking ability....i.e weber may be your trusty guy and maybe the guy you want protecting that lead....although really the advanced stats show its not the disparity that the narrative would have you believe.....but regardless, i said i think we lost the trade because p.k is the guy you want when your down. and on this team...counting on being the team with the lead is not a safe bet when we are the ones getting outchanced and outshot every night.  it may not even show too badly in the regular season where we will play a lot of mediocre teams, but im talking about winning a cup,

it has been said " give a man a reputation as an early riser and he can sleep until noon"  thats what it is with p.k and his crazy risky style, and thats what it is with weber and his impenetrable wall of character.  weber is a solid shutdown dman and physical threat who has a great point shot, and who actually does make mistakes and who actually isnt that effective offensively.  p.k is an offensive magician who will inevitably have a lot of turnovers based on how much he plays the puck and the kinds of plays he tries to make, but ultimately plays an almost entirely unacknowledged high level game in his own end. you may feel like we are better off with mr. safety...and your not alone...but i think we would have been better off finding a stay at home guy to hold p.k down and keep the guy who can affect the game at the highest of levels, especially when our roster is so devoid of that anywhere else.

ANYWAY this is the weber thread, and he deserves credit for his strong start and the things he does well. he has certainly been a member of the plus side of the ledger when evaluating our season. i just think everything so far has gone perfectly for him, which is nice for our team, but not a clear indicator of what this guy is going to do for the length of his tenure, and also as far as the sentiment that we can now safely say we won this trade

I'll be quick and simple. I grew up in Sault Mich. watching HNIC as a kid with my dad before cable. That's how I became a HABS fans since the 60's. I'll always want my team to win no matter who the coach or players are. I now since 96 have been living in Muskegon Mich. SW Michigan. So I watch a lot of the HABS Wings & Hawks. (My boss has season tickets to Chicago) I'm going to the 1/16 game at the Joe with the HABS. I Have always because of location watched the Wings & Habs a lot. I got center ice the first year available. I know to the eye test itself can be very deceiving. I can't count how many games that I saw that Linsdstrom played with the Wings that even the commentators guys like Redmond who know the game and the little things that make a player great commented that it didn't seem like they really noticed Lindstrom the whole game but he played close to 30 minutes and ends up as one of the stars. You can play a smart simple game and be great without being flashy or doing end to end rushes. As a defenseman playing a smart game staying in position and knowing when to step up or try the break away pass is a skill in itself. Talent and skill entertains crowds but at the end of the day the wins loss column and who's net the puck is in more when you're on the ice means the most. It doesn't matter at the end of the day how much you got to touch the puck if you're scored on more than the other team. Lindstrom was great because yes he was a great skater smooth. He wasn't really remembered for his stick handling though. He controlled the game through patients good positioning and passes also getting his shot through to the net. I'm not saying Weber is Lindstrom but there are a lot of little things on the defensive side of the puck along with being in position that make a huge difference in a game. Like anybody PK is fun to watch. At this point though I would rather have Weber on my team. Completely my opinion. This is the Weber page and I wish PK well in Nashville except when he plays us! I like Weber and what I see so far. As for watching Nashville because the Hawks are in their division and Detroit was also , I've also seen them for years not just this year because PK is there and have watched Weber a long time as well. I don't know how much you watched Nashville before this year as to make as strong of an opinion on Weber other than his short time here.

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1 hour ago, HabsAlways said:

Webers lack of foot speed was evident for most the Wings game.   And I find it ironic that he gets a penalty in OT and the TV commentators barely mention it.      If that were PK I wonder how different the narrative would be

Especially if the Wings had scored. 

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