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Poll: Expansion Loss


BigTed3
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Which player do you think the Habs will lose in the expansion draft?  

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  1. 1. Which player do you think the Habs will lose in the expansion draft?



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According to general manager George McPhee, the Vegas Golden Knights are willing to take on players with high cap hits - for a price.

McPhee told the Las Vegas Review-Journal the Golden Knights have been offered high-figure contracts from teams looking to get under the salary cap and the Knights aren't against spending the money for a return.

“We have a lot of teams offering us big contracts,” McPhee said. “We’ll take a few of those, for the right price.”

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I would not be surprised if one of the players on the protected list outside of those who have already been discussed winds up being unprotected. I can actually see Gallagher on that list. I know I'll get a lot of criticism, but what I've seen of Gallagher is that he is smallish, gets pushed around quite a bit. He is more of a character guy and a pest to other reams. And hasn't contributed a lot offensively. I know a lot of you have seen more of him than I have, but I do believe I make a fair case here.

Here are his totals from last year:

In 64 games this past season, he had 10 goals and 29 assists.

The full Gallagher player profile can be found here:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/player-bio/brendan-gallagher

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4 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

According to general manager George McPhee, the Vegas Golden Knights are willing to take on players with high cap hits - for a price.

McPhee told the Las Vegas Review-Journal the Golden Knights have been offered high-figure contracts from teams looking to get under the salary cap and the Knights aren't against spending the money for a return.

“We have a lot of teams offering us big contracts,” McPhee said. “We’ll take a few of those, for the right price.”

The guy that makes sense for us is Plekanec. Not sure it makes sense for LV because I've run mock drafts and it's really not hard for them to get to the cap floor. They don't need to take on salary. So if they do, it's because they're getting assets back. It wouldn't shock me to see us say "take Plekanec and we'll give you a 3rd rounder or one of our extra 2nd's we have"... it's a steep price, but on the other hand, we could view it as giving up a 2nd/3rd in exchange for the Plekanec salary dump + Beaulieu or Hudon or Benn or whoever Vegas would have taken otherwise.

 

1 hour ago, Larry-Launstein-Jr said:

I would not be surprised if one of the players on the protected list outside of those who have already been discussed winds up being unprotected. I can actually see Gallagher on that list. I know I'll get a lot of criticism, but what I've seen of Gallagher is that he is smallish, gets pushed around quite a bit. He is more of a character guy and a pest to other reams. And hasn't contributed a lot offensively. I know a lot of you have seen more of him than I have, but I do believe I make a fair case here.

Here are his totals from last year:

In 64 games this past season, he had 10 goals and 29 assists.

The full Gallagher player profile can be found here:

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/player-bio/brendan-gallagher

Zero chance Gallagher is not protected. He's a pest but his production totals are also in line with a top 6 forward. He's on a reasonable contract, he's still young, and there would be a host of teams who would trade for him if we did want to get rid of him. I see no reason to expose him and lose him for nothing, especially when we don't really have that many forwards in need of protection.

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Big Ted;

I understand your points. I was just trying to talk about the list of players who will be protected as the one most likely from that list to not be protected if the Canadiens chose to go that route - not protect someone from the list given. But I think you are right that a trade would be the more likely scenario.

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4 hours ago, Larry-Launstein-Jr said:

Big Ted;

I understand your points. I was just trying to talk about the list of players who will be protected as the one most likely from that list to not be protected if the Canadiens chose to go that route - not protect someone from the list given. But I think you are right that a trade would be the more likely scenario.

For forwards, I think the protected list will likely be Pacman, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Danault, Shaw, Byron, and one of Hudon or Radulov. It makes more sense (to me anyways) to leave Byron unprotected, to dangle a cheap asset that might entice LV, or else Shaw to get rid of his contract... Gallagher is a better player than Shaw, so IMO, no reason to expose him.

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Gallagher is so criminally underrated. Only reason he doesn't have a big scoring season is that for the first 3 years of his career our power play was a dumpster fire, and he broke his hand 2 years in a row. He scores at high end even strength rates but just has never piled up points on the powerplay yet. Leaving Gallagher unprotected would be an instantly fireable offence for a GM in my opinion.

This chart is Gallagher's performance vs. a generic 1st line winger in icetime, goals/min, first assist/min, shot generation rate, and shot prevention rate. He's better in every respect and one of the best shot generators in the entire league. There's literally only a handful of guys who generate shots at the same rate as Gallagher, he's so much more than just a net-front pest.

Story 1.png

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4 hours ago, Noob616 said:

Gallagher is so criminally underrated. Only reason he doesn't have a big scoring season is that for the first 3 years of his career our power play was a dumpster fire, and he broke his hand 2 years in a row. He scores at high end even strength rates but just has never piled up points on the powerplay yet. Leaving Gallagher unprotected would be an instantly fireable offence for a GM in my opinion.

This chart is Gallagher's performance vs. a generic 1st line winger in icetime, goals/min, first assist/min, shot generation rate, and shot prevention rate. He's better in every respect and one of the best shot generators in the entire league. There's literally only a handful of guys who generate shots at the same rate as Gallagher, he's so much more than just a net-front pest.

Story 1.png

Thanks for those stats.  I think Gllagher had an off year.  I'd be happy to see what could happen in a bounce back year for him.

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17 hours ago, Noob616 said:

Gallagher is so criminally underrated. Only reason he doesn't have a big scoring season is that for the first 3 years of his career our power play was a dumpster fire, and he broke his hand 2 years in a row. He scores at high end even strength rates but just has never piled up points on the powerplay yet. Leaving Gallagher unprotected would be an instantly fireable offence for a GM in my opinion.

This chart is Gallagher's performance vs. a generic 1st line winger in icetime, goals/min, first assist/min, shot generation rate, and shot prevention rate. He's better in every respect and one of the best shot generators in the entire league. There's literally only a handful of guys who generate shots at the same rate as Gallagher, he's so much more than just a net-front pest.

Story 1.png

Gallagher is a perfect example of how modern derived analytical tools have completely obsoleted the traditional way of looking at player performance. People give divine status to raw all situations point totals because "that's what actually happened", and continue to make hideously poor assessments because of the baked-in noise inherent in backward-looking, goal-based metrics. I would just as soon never bother talking about exactly how many point or goals a player had in a time interval again, instead concentrating on 5-on-5 primary point rates.

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2 hours ago, habs_93 said:

Gallagher is a perfect example of how modern derived analytical tools have completely obsoleted the traditional way of looking at player performance. People give divine status to raw all situations point totals because "that's what actually happened", and continue to make hideously poor assessments because of the baked-in noise inherent in backward-looking, goal-based metrics. I would just as soon never bother talking about exactly how many point or goals a player had in a time interval again, instead concentrating on 5-on-5 primary point rates.

What he said. :blink::unsure:

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I think it's safe to assume that the six forwards that will be protected are Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher, Paul Byron, Phillip Danault, Andrew Shaw and Alex Galchenyuk . They can still protect one more. Who do ya'll think will be protected for the seventh spot?  Tomas Plekanec ($6 million cap hit for one more season), Charles Hudon, Daniel Carr or Jacob De la Rose. Probably the most likely will be Charles Hudon. On defense Jeff Petry and Shea Weber clearly will, so which player becomes the third defensemen? Nathan Beaulieu, Jordie Benn or Alexei Emelin. It's common sense to say that Emelin will be left exposed, but I don't think common sense is something Bergevin possesses. Even still which would ya'll protect Nathan Beaulieu, or Jordie Benn?

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On 6/8/2017 at 8:34 AM, manquant said:

I think it's safe to assume that the six forwards that will be protected are Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher, Paul Byron, Phillip Danault, Andrew Shaw and Alex Galchenyuk . They can still protect one more. Who do ya'll think will be protected for the seventh spot?  Tomas Plekanec ($6 million cap hit for one more season), Charles Hudon, Daniel Carr or Jacob De la Rose. Probably the most likely will be Charles Hudon. On defense Jeff Petry and Shea Weber clearly will, so which player becomes the third defensemen? Nathan Beaulieu, Jordie Benn or Alexei Emelin. It's common sense to say that Emelin will be left exposed, but I don't think common sense is something Bergevin possesses. Even still which would ya'll protect Nathan Beaulieu, or Jordie Benn?

I think you're right on the money.

I *hope* they protect Hudon.  I think they *might* protect Radulov.

On defense, i think we will actually trade Beau before the expansion draft.  Of course we might well end up with a different defensman needing protection then too.  Assuming we dont, I think we protect Benn over Beau.     My gut tells me we lost Benn, Beau or Davidson in the ED but you never know.  McPhee might well buy into the "Emelin mystique" 

 

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6 hours ago, maas_art said:

I think you're right on the money.

I *hope* they protect Hudon.  I think they *might* protect Radulov.

On defense, i think we will actually trade Beau before the expansion draft.  Of course we might well end up with a different defensman needing protection then too.  Assuming we dont, I think we protect Benn over Beau.     My gut tells me we lost Benn, Beau or Davidson in the ED but you never know.  McPhee might well buy into the "Emelin mystique" 

 

For just one year until Emelin(31 years of age) is a free agent? That, to me, would be a waste of a pick. 

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So as we get closer, this would be my protected list:

- Price

- Weber, Petry, Beaulieu

- Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Danault, Hudon, Radulov, Carr

And here's why: Price, Weber, Petry, and the first 5 forwards are no-brainers for me. I want to keep Radulov but don't think we need to waste a spot on him. I would do it just because we have one to spare and we may as well not leave the door open a crack for LV. Carr, as well, is just the next best guy up to protect. So why protect those two last guys over better players we could actually lose?

To me, after the 8 guys we want to protect above, the next two guys we don't want to lose are in order Beaulieu and Benn. I don't think we really want to lose Shaw or Byron or Davidson either. In fact, the ideal for us would be to have them choose Plekanec or Emelin, but I doubt that happens unless we sweeten the pot for LV. So my motivation for the above would be to try to entice LV to stay away from Benn. I'd rather LV takes Byron or Shaw than Benn or Beaulieu. So let them. We're going to have to expose one of Beaulieu or Benn, so we may as well expose Shaw and Byron as well then. If they take Benn, we haven't lost anything by exposing Byron/Shaw. And if they take the bait and claim Byron or Shaw, then we've accomplished our goal of saving Benn. Shaw can be a useful player, but his contract is not a good one. Byron is also a decent 3rd liner but he's overrated if you're assessing him just on his last season and a half. So let LV take the bait on one of them and try to keep our D corps intact.

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http://www.torontosun.com/2017/06/14/who-will-canadian-nhl-teams-protect-in-vegas-expansion-draft-postmedia-hockey-writers-explain

MONTREAL CANADIENS (Stu Cowan, Montreal Gazette)

Projected Protected List

G: Carey Price

D: Shea Weber, Jeff Petry, Nathan Beaulieu

F: Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk, Max Pacioretty, Andrew Shaw, Paul Byron, Alex Radulov, Phillip Danault

Stu’s take: The biggest question mark is Alexander Radulov, who can become an unrestricted free agent on July 1. With Vegas having a window to sign UFAs before that date, if the Habs do protect Radulov they risk losing two players: Radulov to free agency and whichever other forward the Knights might pick from Montreal's unprotected list. Montreal may have to cut a side deal with McPhee for a draft pick to have Vegas stay away from Radulov. Tomas Plekanec has one year left on a contract that pays him $6 million, which is probably too much for the Knights. Galchenyuk and Beaulieu can both become restricted free agents on July 1 and could both be on the trade market following disappointing seasons in Montreal.

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51 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

FWIW, Drouin needs to be protected for the ED, so to me, this absolutely means Paul Byron should be exposed... if the Habs expose Hudon because of this, it's a big mistake to not have made this trade after the ED.

Hudon just signed a 2y 1 way extension, right now I think we see Byron and Plekanec exposed, if Galchenyuk is traded for a defenseman I assume Byron gets protected and Plekanec exposed.

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11 minutes ago, Noob616 said:

Hudon just signed a 2y 1 way extension, right now I think we see Byron and Plekanec exposed, if Galchenyuk is traded for a defenseman I assume Byron gets protected and Plekanec exposed.

Given the talk about Radulov having high demands but wanting to stay here, I'm assuming Habs will expose him... so the protected list is likely Pac, AG, BG, Danault, Drouin, Shaw, and then one of Byron or Hudon. Hoping it's Hudon who is protected. You can replace Byron. Hudon has the potential to be a top 6 guy, would hate to lose him in order to protect a 3rd line journeyman, no matter how good a year he had last year. If MB looks at the big picture, he protects Hudon and Beaulieu and lets LV look at Byron and Benn.

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8 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Given the talk about Radulov having high demands but wanting to stay here, I'm assuming Habs will expose him... so the protected list is likely Pac, AG, BG, Danault, Drouin, Shaw, and then one of Byron or Hudon. Hoping it's Hudon who is protected. You can replace Byron. Hudon has the potential to be a top 6 guy, would hate to lose him in order to protect a 3rd line journeyman, no matter how good a year he had last year. If MB looks at the big picture, he protects Hudon and Beaulieu and lets LV look at Byron and Benn.

Yeah, Hudon has scared me the most but a couple of promising things: 1) hudon got a new contract today.  2 years - year one is a 2way, year two is 1 way.  Makes you *think* he's in the plan for now at least.  2) Julien spent some time after we were eliminated watching the farm team. I *hope* he had a good feeling about Hudon & made that feeling known to MB.

If i had my way id protect both Byron and Hudon and leave Shaw exposed, although TBH we could probably get some value back if we really wanted to trade Shaw - and it seemed like Julien was able to get a bit more out of him than MT could so maybe he'll me more useful this year with an actual NHL caliber coach at the helm. 

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Plekanec and Emelin are valuable to vegas because they are likely very good trade candidates at deadline. Plecks could easily go for a 1st (think about the ttrades last year!) and Emelin a second or a third... add to this that MB might be willing to give a draft pick this year to get them off the books... that would make the cap no obstacle at all and really allow us to add whoever we wanted

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7 minutes ago, habsisme said:

yeah, don't like it and ruins my theory... I think we're going to trade Chucky and I don't think we will be happy

Yeah looking more and more like the Habs will move Galchenyuk for a defenseman. Would be pretty spectacular if the Habs end up trading away Subban, Eller, Sergachev, Beaulieu, and Galchenyuk and don't get a center back :lol:

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