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2017-18 The Rumors Thread


BigTed3
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9 hours ago, maas_art said:

DLR - Plekanec - Froese - Mete


"Expect the unexpected" Marc Bergevin.

Good God, Froese had better not be on this team next season.

I assume we'll resign Danault and De La Rose. Since Drouin is not a center and Galchenyuk is (apparently) not a center... Our center depth will be Danault and De La Rose. Brilliant. GO MB!!!

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2 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Good God, Froese had better not be on this team next season.

I assume we'll resign Danault and De La Rose. Since Drouin is not a center and Galchenyuk is (apparently) not a center... Our center depth will be Danault and De La Rose. Brilliant. GO MB!!!

I actually think MB WILL address our centre problem.  I think we're all going to be super excited about our pivots in october. 

The problem is, in typical MB fashion, I suspect he will either deplete another area (ie trade gallagher sherbak and shaw to get those centres) or once again ignore another problem (ie LD).


So while i actually would not be shocked to see our centres look like  Tavares-Statsny-Danault-DLR  I would be shocked if MB not only fixes the centre problem but also fixes our LD hole AND keeps other areas strong.  

If I look at our roster by position we have:

- Left Wings - way too many. Arguably 3 first line LW and at least 5-6 vying for the top 2 lines.

- Right Wings - slightly understocked.   If Scherbak steps up we're ok.  

- Centres - brutal.  Worst we've been in years.  We have Danault as a very good #3 and a couple of guys who can play #4.  No one is even close to #1 or 2

- Right D - Fine

- Left D - not as bad as it looks if we can find one guy to play next to Weber.  We have decent options for 2nd and 3rd pairing LD

- Goal - should be fine, assuming someone bounces back.

 

So we're super deep at one position (LW) ok at a few (RD, G) understocked but possibly ok at one (RW)  short one key player at LD and two key players at C.  

 

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^^^

The only way I would be excited about our center ice position is IF he signs Tavares or manages to turn Pacioretty into a top-tier center prospect who can start in the NHL next season. Maybe you have to move more than just Max to do so, but... we've got other add-ins that might get it done (e.g. four 2nd round picks). Tavares, Danault, De La Rose, Plekanec is how I see our best case scenario. With MB at the helm, that is. That's not my ideal lineup.

I think left defense is pretty uncertain at the moment. Sure, Juulsen and Mete COULD make an impact next season... but they might also flop and take a step backwards in their development. They're both so young. I don't really see any free agent solutions.

I can be patient. If MB fixes one of our problems (center or LD) this off-season I will be content. I don't expect him to solve both.

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

I actually think MB WILL address our centre problem.  I think we're all going to be super excited about our pivots in october. 

The problem is, in typical MB fashion, I suspect he will either deplete another area (ie trade gallagher sherbak and shaw to get those centres) or once again ignore another problem (ie LD).


So while i actually would not be shocked to see our centres look like  Tavares-Statsny-Danault-DLR  I would be shocked if MB not only fixes the centre problem but also fixes our LD hole AND keeps other areas strong.  

If I look at our roster by position we have:

- Left Wings - way too many. Arguably 3 first line LW and at least 5-6 vying for the top 2 lines.

- Right Wings - slightly understocked.   If Scherbak steps up we're ok.  

- Centres - brutal.  Worst we've been in years.  We have Danault as a very good #3 and a couple of guys who can play #4.  No one is even close to #1 or 2

- Right D - Fine

- Left D - not as bad as it looks if we can find one guy to play next to Weber.  We have decent options for 2nd and 3rd pairing LD

- Goal - should be fine, assuming someone bounces back.

 

So we're super deep at one position (LW) ok at a few (RD, G) understocked but possibly ok at one (RW)  short one key player at LD and two key players at C.  

 

If Bergevin has found it hard to fix his center ice woes so far, I suspect he'll have trouble doing it this year. Tavares is really the one exception of a potentially elite center hitting the free agency market. After that, the list is pretty awful. There were those rumors of Stastny being interested in coming here, but he's really the only 2nd-tier guy available (if you believe the aging and oft-injured Joe Thornton will simply go back to SJ). So teams in need of centers are going to be tossing a lot of money at JT and PS, and Stastny just frankly isn't a 1C. He's an okay 2C if you have an elite 1C like Tavares, but he's not carrying a load alone. After Stastny, the next tier of players included Bozak, Riley Nash, Plekanec, Filppula, and Vermette. So as far as UFA's go, it's basically a home run or a strike out for Bergevin.

The RFA market is a bit more interesting... William Karlsson, Elias Lindholm, Boone Jenner, Brock Nelson, etc. But again, no real truly elite 1C's.

So what does that leave? Trade or draft. We've gone down the list of trade possibilities before, with Edmonton perhaps being at the top of the list. It's unclear whether they're willing to part with either RNH or Draisaitl though. Maybe Washington turns the page on Backstrom, but he's a bit older than the ideal target for us. And it's not clear that players like Thomas or Borgstrom or Vilardi are open for discussion. So availability remains the key question here. Outside of Tavares, the truly best way to find top 6 centers is via the draft. We may have a #2 guy in Poehling if we're lucky, but we definitely don't have a #1 and the pickings for a verifiable 1C in this year's draft are slim as well. Kotkaniemi is the only guy who seemingly has decent odds of getting there. The others appear to be potential hits or misses. The next two draft years after this one seem to have better center prospects, but how patient is MB willing to be? Is he willing to dump the likes of Weber and Price and be bad for two years to better the odds of getting a Jack Hughes or a Lafreniere? I doubt it.

On the subject of right wingers, Gallagher is clearly a top 6 player. Scherbak, as you mentioned, has the potential to be one but isn't there yet. Lehkonen can also play the right though and either he or Shaw would be fine on the 3rd line. I question whether Galchenyuk might be a good fit there if the team continues to refuse to play him at center though. He's just so much more dangerous on his off-wing, as we can see by his shot on the PP. If we continue to be log-jammed on the left and manage to fill our center void somehow, AG could be a good candidate to try on the right too.

So what do I see? I think the odds are against us on Tavares. Even if we sign Stastny, it's not enough. So frankly, with Julien's end-of-season comments in mind, I think the team will go back to Drouin at center if it can't get Tavares. Plekanec has clearly stated he wants to return, and I think CJ and MB like him too much to turn that down. So I wouldn't in the least be surprised to see us lining up Drouin-Danault-Plekanec-DLR again down the middle and making zero progress whatsoever. Poehling is going back to college, Kotkaniemi is young for his draft year and isn't likely to come over to the NHL even if we draft him. So barring a trade for a young NHL-ready player like Borgstrom or Thomas or a surprise deal for an Oiler center, for example, it's looking kind of bleak down the middle for next season. I really feel like all of Bergevin's eggs are in the Tavares basket at this point.

 

 

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^^^

And if Bergevin's plan is to get Tavares, Molson should've fired him already. Planning to get Tavares is no plan at all.

It seems pretty bleak. I really don't think we have a chance unless we make a trade... Can we turn Max into a center? Unless perhaps Drouin or Galchenyuk shock us and become an excellent option at center we might be in trouble again next season. How long can it go on with this organization have no #1 options at the center ice position?

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56 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

^^^

And if Bergevin's plan is to get Tavares, Molson should've fired him already. Planning to get Tavares is no plan at all.

It seems pretty bleak. I really don't think we have a chance unless we make a trade... Can we turn Max into a center? Unless perhaps Drouin or Galchenyuk shock us and become an excellent option at center we might be in trouble again next season. How long can it go on with this organization have no #1 options at the center ice position?

IMO, MB has waited too long. As long as teams know they can hold MB hostage this will continue for quite a while. We're gonna pay dearly for a #1.

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1 hour ago, habs1952 said:

We're gonna pay dearly for a #1.

Totally. Hence my worry. I think what MB is going to do, like he's done in the past, is overreact.  

When Eller got destroyed in the playoffs, he overreacted and got "toughness"  then we needed character, now we need attitude, etc etc.

Lets hope we deal from a position of strength (left wingers) and not ones we're just barely solid at (RW, RD etc) to fix our LD and C problems. 

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8 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

 manages to turn Pacioretty into a top-tier center prospect who can start in the NHL next season. z

Might be a little late in his career to make that transition .... (honestly it took me like at least 10 seconds to realize what you meant here).

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I read something interesting tonight.

FWIW:

Erik Karlsson still has one year left on his contract and the Senators are expected to offer him an extension come July 1st, will the extension be a lowball? Most probably. 

It's likely that Karlsson gets shipped out of Ottawa around the draft or sometime in the summer and some pretty surprising landing spots have surfaced. 

The very controversial Hockeybuzz.com recently received a tip that the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs could be landing spots for the All-Star defenseman.

"It was previously true, at the deadline for instance, that the Sens were not willing to even discuss the possibility of moving their star defender to a team in division, especially not one of their eastern Canadian rivals...this weekend I was told they now 'won't rule out' that scenario..."

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2 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

I read something interesting tonight.

FWIW:

Erik Karlsson still has one year left on his contract and the Senators are expected to offer him an extension come July 1st, will the extension be a lowball? Most probably. 

It's likely that Karlsson gets shipped out of Ottawa around the draft or sometime in the summer and some pretty surprising landing spots have surfaced. 

The very controversial Hockeybuzz.com recently received a tip that the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs could be landing spots for the All-Star defenseman.

"It was previously true, at the deadline for instance, that the Sens were not willing to even discuss the possibility of moving their star defender to a team in division, especially not one of their eastern Canadian rivals...this weekend I was told they now 'won't rule out' that scenario..."

The best we could offer would be Patches, 2 pucks and a broken hockey stick.

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1 hour ago, habs1952 said:

The best we could offer would be Patches, 2 pucks and a broken hockey stick.

We could offer Weber+ or Petry+, but the Sens would probably want the 3rd overall pick as well.

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Yeah, I don't think we have enough to consider trading for Karlsson. We'd end up depleting key components of our NHL roster to make that deal happen. Karlsson, if traded, is going to get Ottawa a really nice package.

If I were Ottawa, I'd ask for... Max Pacioretty, Arturri Lehkonen, Victor Mete, 3rd overall.

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I think there were rumors Ottawa wanted multiple 1st round picks as a starter to any deal, which was one of the reasons talks with Vegas and Tampa broke off. To me, any deal with even one 1st round pick should be a non-starter for us. I don't have a lot of interest in Karlsson to be honest, because I don't think he fits with what our plan should be. If you acquire Karlsson and give up a 1st or two and 2-3 prospects/young NHLers then you're still missing two top 6 centers, you have less to deal away as assets to get them, and you've ruined your future without being that close to a Cup.

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9 hours ago, ChiLla said:

We could offer Weber+ or Petry+, but the Sens would probably want the 3rd overall pick as well.

The idea of Weber sounds crazy on the surface but in some ways it makes a lot of sense.  We basically do the flip of the Weber-Subban deal.  We end up with the younger, purportedly "less defensively responsible" player. They get the man mountain, whose reputation is still probably quite a bit higher than it should be (but for how long). 

Normally you'd say "this is nuts, there's no way they'd do it" because, if for no other reason, they are on a rebuild - BUT - never underestimate the penny pinching of Eugene Melnyk.   In Weber you get a guy with a relatively high cap ($7.8m) hit but whose salary starts going down in a hurry soon. $6m a year for the next few years then down to $3m and below. 

Sure he's not Karlsson, not even close but he's still a top pairing dman (Cmon Weber haters, he's still a top 60 dman in the league).  If they trade away Karlsson they will need someone back there and this does give them a guy locked in for cheap for a long time. 

 

42 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

I think there were rumors Ottawa wanted multiple 1st round picks as a starter to any deal, which was one of the reasons talks with Vegas and Tampa broke off. To me, any deal with even one 1st round pick should be a non-starter for us. 

Agreed.  If it requires 1st rounders or high end prospects im not interested. 

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23 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Normally you'd say "this is nuts, there's no way they'd do it" because, if for no other reason, they are on a rebuild - BUT - never underestimate the penny pinching of Eugene Melnyk.   In Weber you get a guy with a relatively high cap ($7.8m) hit but whose salary starts going down in a hurry soon. $6m a year for the next few years then down to $3m and below. 

I never even thought of this. Holy crap this could actually happen.

In terms of actual dollars for the rest of his contract you're looking at 5.4M X 5 years and then it drops to 1M for 3 years where he'll almost certainly retire or develop some bizzare skin rash or something. I could see that being really attractive to Melnyk, getting a name brand star 1D that can play with Chabot, plus with the #3 pick surely being included they would be able to give their #4 pick to Colorado and avoid the risk of losing the #1OA pick next year because they're definitely going to suck again. 

GM's in this sport are way too lame and risk averse for it to happen but this is a deal that potentially makes a lot of sense for both sides presuming there's some reasonable level of certainty that the Habs can get something worked out for Tavares and/or O'Reilly and go into next season with a much improved defense and at least adequate depth at C.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

I don't have a lot of interest in Karlsson to be honest, because I don't think he fits with what our plan should be. If you acquire Karlsson and give up a 1st or two and 2-3 prospects/young NHLers then you're still missing two top 6 centers, you have less to deal away as assets to get them, and you've ruined your future without being that close to a Cup.

The Habs plan is based on not having a Karlsson, and getting him instantly changes it. A top 4 anchored by Karlsson and Petry is instantly credible and indirectly fixes the issue at LD since Karlsson has been the best defenseman in the world for half a decade dragging around plugs like Methot, Ceci, Cowen, etc. so you can just put Mete with Petry and plug in any one of Benn/Reilly/Alzner/UFA/Trade target with Karlsson. Obviously you want to upgrade and don't want Benn or Alzner playing top 4 minutes, but it's no longer a glaring giant need with Karlsson carrying a top pair on his own.

You'd still have Pacioretty to trade for help at C or on LD and you wouldn't have to worry as much about losing that trade in isolation since the Habs would have a star defenseman again. I get the apprehension about trading picks for an older player but Karlsson is still only 27, I don't think he puts you on a clock where you have to win immediately. I guess I'm just highly skeptical that Weber + Zadina + 2018 1st have more value over the next 5 seasons than Karlsson age 27-32. 

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24 minutes ago, habs1952 said:

And where do we stand when Karlsson decides to become a free agent in 2019?

Obviously a smart GM wouldnt make a monster trade for him unless he had agreed to sign an extension.  I mean id probably do weber for Karlsson straight up & take my chances but if there are any other pieces, id want to know EK was in for a while.  

Its anybody's guess what MB would do, although i suspect he wouldnt even consider trading Man Mountain. 

 

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26 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I just don't see it happening and I wouldn't be as happy as most here about losing Weber, if we had a way to keep both maybe but the reality is, a guy like Karlsson makes a lot more sense for TO then it does for us

I suspect that T.O.'s cap situation won't be able to handle the 12 + mill that it will take for Karlsson, unless one of their top 3 kids is going back the other way. I just don't see the math working. Mathews will cost them well over 10 mill,  and Marner / Nylander will come in at 8 to 10 mill each. Bridging them only delays the hurt. More then half their cap to cover 4 players.

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1 hour ago, habsisme said:

I just don't see it happening and I wouldn't be as happy as most here about losing Weber, if we had a way to keep both maybe but the reality is, a guy like Karlsson makes a lot more sense for TO then it does for us

I do actually like Weber but I dont see any way you add Karlsson & keep weber.  Thats like $20m for your top pair (once Karlsson signs his extension).   Plus as much as I like Weber now, I worry about him in a few years. 

 

 

 

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