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2017-18 The Rumors Thread


BigTed3
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3 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I think they will wait to sign Thornton and only do it if they can't get Tavares. I had the impression that Thornton made it clear he would stay and would take a pay cut and didn't want to go anywhere else

I wish we'd know before the draft because I'd want different things if Tavares was coming, like packaging 2 of those second rounders for a player for example. 

... Thornton said he would take a paycut to stay "if it meant we could sign a top free agent" (hint hint). But that was before the Kane deal. In other words, I think Thornton would leave money on the table if he knew they were getting Tavares, but I think that means he'd take 5M instead of 7M, not that he's taking 2M on one of his last contracts.

I've gone over this, but imagine you're Thornton. The Sharks come to you and say we'd like you back, but we also want to see if we can get someone better July 1st, because if we do, we don't need you. Thornton is free to sign now. He's made it clear he only wants to play in San Jose, so if the Sharks tell him to wait until July 1st, how does he react to it?

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2 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

... Thornton said he would take a paycut to stay "if it meant we could sign a top free agent" (hint hint). But that was before the Kane deal. In other words, I think Thornton would leave money on the table if he knew they were getting Tavares, but I think that means he'd take 5M instead of 7M, not that he's taking 2M on one of his last contracts.

I've gone over this, but imagine you're Thornton. The Sharks come to you and say we'd like you back, but we also want to see if we can get someone better July 1st, because if we do, we don't need you. Thornton is free to sign now. He's made it clear he only wants to play in San Jose, so if the Sharks tell him to wait until July 1st, how does he react to it?

I know how I'd react! I'd sign a one million dollar with the Kings or the Ducks and make them wish they never disrespected me like that! 

I agree with your thinking but I also think Thornton might be at a point in his life where its either play with the Sharks or call it quits. That was the impression I was getting but I could definitely be wrong

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10 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

To recap, if the Sharks/Kane deal is confirmed as rumored, then SJ will have 67.5M spent on 7D, 12F, and 2G, but that would include a number of ELC players who may not make the team. The team still needs to re-sign Hertl and potentially Thornton. I know people have said they could just let Thornton walk, and they could, but they'd likely need to make that decision without knowing whether Tavares is coming there and then risk ending up with neither a la Marc Bergevin. So that's not to say SJ's out on Tavares, but they'd likely need to move someone like Pavelski or Martin or Boedker at the very least to make it happen.

Right now, if I were putting odds on where Tavares goes, I'd rank it

1. New York Islanders

2. Las Vegas

3. Montreal

4. New York Rangers

5. St. Louis

6. Nashville

7. Toronto

8. Buffalo

9. New Jersey

10. Florida

If I were Tavares it would be Vegas, Montreal, or Nashville. I hate the Islanders and their arena(s) and everything associated with that team. Every other team gives you what these 3 give you but less. 

The hockey move is Nashville, the money (and hockey) move is Vegas, the legacy move is Montreal. I think any other move, is the wrong move. 

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4 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I know how I'd react! I'd sign a one million dollar with the Kings or the Ducks and make them wish they never disrespected me like that! 

I agree with your thinking but I also think Thornton might be at a point in his life where its either play with the Sharks or call it quits. That was the impression I was getting but I could definitely be wrong

I got the impression he would pick the Sharks only. But not if the Sharks didn't pick him. I think he still wants to play and challenge for a Cup, hence the willingness to take a pay cut if it meant improving his chances. But if SJ tells him they're not sure he's part of the plans in order to get that guy, I think he'd be motivated to go elsewhere.

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2 minutes ago, habsisme said:

If I were Tavares it would be Vegas, Montreal, or Nashville. I hate the Islanders and their arena(s) and everything associated with that team. Every other team gives you what these 3 give you but less. 

The hockey move is Nashville, the money (and hockey) move is Vegas, the legacy move is Montreal. I think any other move, is the wrong move. 

Nasvhille would be a great hockey decision, but like SJ, they could be up against the cap, with 67.5M already spent and the need to re-sign Hartman and Suaros. They already have big money and term locked up in Johansen, Turris, and Bonino, so I'm not sure what they do with their center position if they sign Tavares. Like the Sharks, adding JT would almost certainly require another move to make the roster/cap work.

Vegas has got the cap space. They have the opening for him to take the 1C position away from Karlsson. But in the back of his head, he's got to at least wonder how well they're going to be able to reproduce their success. We've seen teams have one good year then sink down again, and the Knights on paper still aren't a fantastic team. They've played well above expectations, but their staying power remains a question mark. It's also not a traditional hockey market, which if you believe the rumors, might be important to Tavares.

There are other factors that go into the decision. For one, Tavares got engaged last year and his fiancee is Canadian (and I think from Ontario from what I can gather). We saw how that type of factor lead to Vanek going back to Minnesota and how Shattenkirk had his mind set on going back to New York. So it could be that Tavares wants to be close to Toronto/Ontario. Maybe that means he thinks about the Leafs. Maybe he's willing to go to Buffalo or Montreal. Maybe he doesn't want to deal with the Isles' arena mess and uncertain future but wants to stay in the New York area and opts for NJ or the Rangers. There could be factors we don't know about, but if you believe the rumors, what seems to be most important to JT are in order:

1. Shot at being competitive for a Cup/ not going to a re-building team

2. Playing in a hockey city with history (be it Canadian or an Original 6 team)

3. Contract (money + term)

4. Being the 1C

 

Nashville gives him 1, but not clearly 2 and it'll be a struggle to pay him and it'll be a fight for him to get center ice time.

Vegas potentially gives him 1 and 3 and likely 4, but not 2.

Montreal can give 2, 3, and 4 without much debate, but the question is whether he thinks the core can rebound to fight for a Cup or whether he thinks the team is missing more than just a 1C to get them there.

Toronto gives him 1 and 2, but maybe not 3 and probably not 4 with Matthews.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

... Thornton said he would take a paycut to stay "if it meant we could sign a top free agent" (hint hint). But that was before the Kane deal. In other words, I think Thornton would leave money on the table if he knew they were getting Tavares, but I think that means he'd take 5M instead of 7M, not that he's taking 2M on one of his last contracts.

I've gone over this, but imagine you're Thornton. The Sharks come to you and say we'd like you back, but we also want to see if we can get someone better July 1st, because if we do, we don't need you. Thornton is free to sign now. He's made it clear he only wants to play in San Jose, so if the Sharks tell him to wait until July 1st, how does he react to it?

I guess he would have to suck it up and wait. Realistically, who would want to sign a 39 year old for 5 mil.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

There could be factors we don't know about, but if you believe the rumors, what seems to be most important to JT are in order:

1. Shot at being competitive for a Cup/ not going to a re-building team

2. Playing in a hockey city with history (be it Canadian or an Original 6 team)

3. Contract (money + term)

4. Being the 1C

 

Nashville gives him 1, but not clearly 2 and it'll be a struggle to pay him and it'll be a fight for him to get center ice time.

Vegas potentially gives him 1 and 3 and likely 4, but not 2.

Montreal can give 2, 3, and 4 without much debate, but the question is whether he thinks the core can rebound to fight for a Cup or whether he thinks the team is missing more than just a 1C to get them there.

Toronto gives him 1 and 2, but maybe not 3 and probably not 4 with Matthews.

Best breakdown Ive seen so far & I agree.  We dont know all the ins and out - just like we dont know if Bergevin & Brisson already have a gentleman's agreement in place.  

From what we know though, your breakdows make sense, totally.  Its why I do believe we have as good a shot as anyone (maybe better) but our odds vs. the odds of him signing somewhere else are still low-ish. 

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21 minutes ago, habs1952 said:

I guess he would have to suck it up and wait. Realistically, who would want to sign a 39 year old for 5 mil.

Thornton is still a quality player. He doesn't make sense for a bunch of teams, but he makes a lot of sense on a 1-year deal for a team that's competitive for a Cup. I'd pay him 5M a year to play here, if we choose to retain Carey/Weber/Max as a core. I think a lot of the teams interested in Tavares would accept him as a consolation prize too. St. Louis. Vegas. Anaheim. The Isles. The Canes. If he goes to market, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone give him 1 year at 6.5 to 7M a season. There was a market for Marleau last year too, and he delivered in Toronto. No reason to think Big Joe can't be a 2nd line center on a good team and still produce 50-60 points if he stays healthy.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Nasvhille would be a great hockey decision, but like SJ, they could be up against the cap, with 67.5M already spent and the need to re-sign Hartman and Suaros. They already have big money and term locked up in Johansen, Turris, and Bonino, so I'm not sure what they do with their center position if they sign Tavares. Like the Sharks, adding JT would almost certainly require another move to make the roster/cap work.

Vegas has got the cap space. They have the opening for him to take the 1C position away from Karlsson. But in the back of his head, he's got to at least wonder how well they're going to be able to reproduce their success. We've seen teams have one good year then sink down again, and the Knights on paper still aren't a fantastic team. They've played well above expectations, but their staying power remains a question mark. It's also not a traditional hockey market, which if you believe the rumors, might be important to Tavares.

There are other factors that go into the decision. For one, Tavares got engaged last year and his fiancee is Canadian (and I think from Ontario from what I can gather). We saw how that type of factor lead to Vanek going back to Minnesota and how Shattenkirk had his mind set on going back to New York. So it could be that Tavares wants to be close to Toronto/Ontario. Maybe that means he thinks about the Leafs. Maybe he's willing to go to Buffalo or Montreal. Maybe he doesn't want to deal with the Isles' arena mess and uncertain future but wants to stay in the New York area and opts for NJ or the Rangers. There could be factors we don't know about, but if you believe the rumors, what seems to be most important to JT are in order:

1. Shot at being competitive for a Cup/ not going to a re-building team

2. Playing in a hockey city with history (be it Canadian or an Original 6 team)

3. Contract (money + term)

4. Being the 1C

 

Nashville gives him 1, but not clearly 2 and it'll be a struggle to pay him and it'll be a fight for him to get center ice time.

Vegas potentially gives him 1 and 3 and likely 4, but not 2.

Montreal can give 2, 3, and 4 without much debate, but the question is whether he thinks the core can rebound to fight for a Cup or whether he thinks the team is missing more than just a 1C to get them there.

Toronto gives him 1 and 2, but maybe not 3 and probably not 4 with Matthews.

I think Toronto could happen but I really think it will be a mistake. They signed Marleau too (and i said it was a bad move) and now they're going to lose a bunch of good players. If I'm the leafs, the free agent I go after is Carlson. Although I guess they could sign Tavares and then flip Nylander for D... maybe that could work

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16 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

Dreger doesn't think Montreal and Toronto are a fit for JT

and in your analysis you forgot to include teams like SJ, ST Louis , Rangers

What does Dreger know? 

The reason why I think Montreal is a legit possibility is the relationship between GM and agent, that is a pretty good fit, and that he apparently wants to play in a city where hockey and tradition matter. I also think that guys like JT see Webber and Price and start drooling 

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22 minutes ago, habsisme said:

The reason why I think Montreal is a legit possibility is the relationship between GM and agent, that is a pretty good fit, and that he apparently wants to play in a city where hockey and tradition matter. I also think that guys like JT see Webber and Price and start drooling 

Doesn't matter that GM and agent are friend , JT will do what's best for him not his agent  and where was it that he said he wants to play in a city where hockey and tradition matter ?  Cause right now tradition means nothing in Montreal , this team and organization is not what it used to be . And I also wouldn't be using Weber as a bargaining chip , he aint what he used to be and the rest of the team is terrible hence the 28 th overall finish

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http://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/can-lou-lamoriello-keep-john-tavares-with-the-islanders

It seems likely that the Habs dream is over and I don't know that it had ever started," TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger says.

 

“It seems likely that the Habs dream is over and I don’t know that it had ever started outside of inside the market,” TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger said about Tavares Tuesday morning on Montreal’s TSN Radio 690. “And no question (Canadiens GM) Marc Begevin and ownership covet the idea of John Tavares. But with free agents they’re the ones who decide where they’re going to go and what term and what money that they’re willing to play for.

“I think that Lou Lamoriello landing with the New York Islanders is going to help the Islanders keep John Tavares,” Dreger added. “But this is just a ballpark, educated guess. I think that Lamoriello overseeing hockey operations maybe moves or bumps the percentage of Tavares staying to at best 50/50. If the Islanders had done nothing and just maintained status quo then I think there was a far better percentage that Tavares would go to free agency.”

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4 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

http://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/can-lou-lamoriello-keep-john-tavares-with-the-islanders

It seems likely that the Habs dream is over and I don't know that it had ever started," TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger says.

 

“It seems likely that the Habs dream is over and I don’t know that it had ever started outside of inside the market,” TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger said about Tavares Tuesday morning on Montreal’s TSN Radio 690. “And no question (Canadiens GM) Marc Begevin and ownership covet the idea of John Tavares. But with free agents they’re the ones who decide where they’re going to go and what term and what money that they’re willing to play for.

“I think that Lou Lamoriello landing with the New York Islanders is going to help the Islanders keep John Tavares,” Dreger added. “But this is just a ballpark, educated guess. I think that Lamoriello overseeing hockey operations maybe moves or bumps the percentage of Tavares staying to at best 50/50. If the Islanders had done nothing and just maintained status quo then I think there was a far better percentage that Tavares would go to free agency.”

But thats what I mean... his statements don't support his thesis. All he really said is that there is a bit more of a chance he stays with Islanders (which I agree with even though I think he's crazy to stay with that ridiculous franchise). 

 

21 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

Doesn't matter that GM and agent are friend , JT will do what's best for him not his agent  and where was it that he said he wants to play in a city where hockey and tradition matter ?  Cause right now tradition means nothing in Montreal , this team and organization is not what it used to be . And I also wouldn't be using Weber as a bargaining chip , he aint what he used to be and the rest of the team is terrible hence the 28 th overall finish

I'm not going to argue with you but I disagree. My point however is not about what is or isn't true or real but what JT believes and I'm saying that he believes this is a place where hockey matters and the he would like to play with Price and Weber. 

We'll find out soon enough but this whole JT situation makes it hard to care about the draft because getting him or not getting him changes everything... including trading Price and/or Weber

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Ya know, iffin I were JT, I would have told my agent that I want to go to where:

The money is. (Habs can swing it).

Tradition. ( A proud legacy).

Endorsements. (Lots of them).

Recognition. (Walk down the street and see if no-one recognizes you?)

Where hockey is a number one priority. (It's a religion).

I want term. (MB will give it to you).

A great city. (Duh , of course).

Get me that!!!.

 

 

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Regis22 said:

Dreger doesn't think Montreal and Toronto are a fit for JT

and in your analysis you forgot to include teams like SJ, ST Louis , Rangers

Didn't forget them, was just responding to the three teams mentioned in a previous post and then added in the talk about Toronto because it's the closest thing to his home town. I left a more comprehensive list before that, including those three teams.

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2 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Is Montreal where the money is though? Taxes for someone playing in Montreal are much higher than some other options. Especially when considering it will be over a 7-year time frame.

I think dollars alone, Vegas is the spot because no state taxes and they will probably be willing to pay as high as MB. But montreal is up there too. Taxes hurt us but they hurt a lot of our competitors too and we're paying more... not to mention cost of living here is a joke.

I still think money is a plus for us but you're right there may be a team or two where its more of a plus. You have to think of teams willing and able to pay him 12+ million and have no state tax. Vegas baby! 

If i were JT I might be scared of Vegas. They've done so well but likely overachieved. What if Tavares joins and they do worse or struggle to make the playoffs. Has to be embarrassing. However bad Montreal is, i think we underachieved this year (we're bad just not that bad) and have clear positional needs that can easily be at least improved on

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3 minutes ago, Habs=stanleycup said:

All because of the two clowns running the show right now.

The only way our team reaches its former glory is if they do away with French first politics and build a team based on skill fit for today's NHL.

I think its unfair to think we could regain our former glory. With the number of teams and salary cap its basically impossible.

I know its a long time ago but that history still means something to me and I'm sure it does to a guy like JT or anyone who cares about that kind of thing. Winning matters here.

I happened to be at the game when Price became the montreal canadiens goalie with the most games played. I didnt even know about it until i got there. There are some records (and some teams) where the team record matters way more than the NHL record and every single person in the crowd knew that when we gave Price a heart felt standing ovation (you had to be there to feel it).

Tradition matters. Sometimes its all there is

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32 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I think dollars alone, Vegas is the spot because no state taxes and they will probably be willing to pay as high as MB. But montreal is up there too. Taxes hurt us but they hurt a lot of our competitors too and we're paying more... not to mention cost of living here is a joke.

I still think money is a plus for us but you're right there may be a team or two where its more of a plus. You have to think of teams willing and able to pay him 12+ million and have no state tax. Vegas baby! 

If i were JT I might be scared of Vegas. They've done so well but likely overachieved. What if Tavares joins and they do worse or struggle to make the playoffs. Has to be embarrassing. However bad Montreal is, i think we underachieved this year (we're bad just not that bad) and have clear positional needs that can easily be at least improved on

Very true. According to Capfriendly you would take home 1.5 million more per season playing in Vegas. That's based on an 11 million/year salary.

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13 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Very true. According to Capfriendly you would take home 1.5 million more per season playing in Vegas. That's based on an 11 million/year salary.

For sure - and this will vary by player to player - but i dont think that is a massive deal breaker for a lot of guys.  Its not like we're talking about a $50k salary vs $65k.  These guys are set for life. The "money" is more about "I am one of the 5 best players in the world and i want to be paid as one of the 5 best players in the world" for a lot of them.  Ive heard more than one player say that what is important is gross pay, not net.  Gross pay shows what they are 'worth' and how they are valued.   I am sure there are plenty of players who are more interested in net too. 

So while i agree - on money alone, no one can compete with say, Vegas, there are other factors.   Like habsisme Id be worried about signing in LV because as good as they've played i dont see it as sustainable. Right now they are running on adrenaline, game in, game out. Every single player is playing the best hockey of their career. That most likely wont continue  into next year (although they've been proving us all wrong for a full season!) 

I think the real question in terms of us, is how good he (JT) believes players like Weber and Price are.  We can sit and criticize them all we want but in last year's poll of NHL players they were both ranked highly as players you dont want to play against and players you want on your team.  So while the stats and the eye test may say otherwise, a lot of NHL players still consider them to be elite.  

 

It would be nice to know what JT wants.  He obviously keeps a lot of things close to his chest but there are some contradictory reports out there.  Some say he's looking for a hockey city - original 6 - while others say he doesnt like the limelight at all.      So at this point its tough to call.    I am still holding out a glimmer of hope that he signs with us but its just a dream for now.  I guess in like 5+ weeks we'll know for sure :)

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