Jump to content
The Official Site of the Montréal Canadiens
Canadiens de Montreal

State of the Habs


Recommended Posts

30 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

Apprently my sarcasm was lost on people.   The fact that we'd trade all of that after getting Weber for PK straight up ...

i read it that way.  

The really frustrating thing is that I think we still could flp Weber and Patches and get a really great haul.  but I dont think MB will do it.  And by the time we do consider trading guys like Weber or Price, their value will be considerably less.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, maas_art said:

i read it that way.  

The really frustrating thing is that I think we still could flp Weber and Patches and get a really great haul.  but I dont think MB will do it.  And by the time we do consider trading guys like Weber or Price, their value will be considerably less.

If we're to truly enter full rebuild 

Weber, Patches, Price, Benn, Alzner, Schlemko, Shaw and possibly Petry are the pieces we should be dealing.     I have zero faith in MB to do pull that trigger and even if he does to get proper return for any of those pieces.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

If we're to truly enter full rebuild 

Weber, Patches, Price, Benn, Alzner, Schlemko, Shaw and possibly Petry are the pieces we should be dealing.     I have zero faith in MB to do pull that trigger and even if he does to get proper return for any of those pieces.

 

If we trade all our veteran D-men we'll wind up needing to sign another. I think we'd be wise to keep Petry as a mentor to the young D-men.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, maas_art said:

i read it that way.  

The really frustrating thing is that I think we still could flp Weber and Patches and get a really great haul.  but I dont think MB will do it.  And by the time we do consider trading guys like Weber or Price, their value will be considerably less.

Im starting to wonder if thats actually the case.  would teams want these guys on their roster for free...yeah sure. are they going to give us what we would consider a really great haul....well it already looking like no one wanted to for captain invisible, and I wonder how much they want to give up for mr.locker room presence with one foot signed until the rapture.

 

It is my sinking feeling that we have a last place team because our star players stink, and everyone else knows it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, jeff33 said:

Im starting to wonder if thats actually the case.  would teams want these guys on their roster for free...yeah sure. are they going to give us what we would consider a really great haul....well it already looking like no one wanted to for captain invisible, and I wonder how much they want to give up for mr.locker room presence with one foot signed until the rapture.

 

It is my sinking feeling that we have a last place team because our star players stink, and everyone else knows it

I think its pretty tough to say that for sure without seeing if there's a deal to be had at the draft.   The problem is that the teams who were likely in the greatest need for a guy like Patches (St Louis, LA, Florida) are all either retooling or close to doing so.  Why would they trade a Thomas, Vilardi or Borgstrom ?  

This summer i think teams would be more inclined to move on from a young player in the hopes of making a followup trade or UFA signing.    I think BigTed is right though: Marc Bervegin is more likely to trade Patches for an established #2  (RNH, Eriksson-EK) than a 'shoot for the stars prospect like Vilardi or Thomas.  I dont think its the right move (unless we somehow, against all odds, sign Tavares too) but I think its what will happen. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Noob616 said:

Habs played a great game last night. I've been impressed with Juulsen, I was getting a bit skeptical about his progression after his concussion issues but he's looked good and hopefully can make the team in the next couple seasons. Nice to see Scherbak and Lehkonen having some success as well.

I know we're all cheering for the tank but the lottery means it's not so important anymore, last place has like an 18% chance to get #1OA and only a 48% chance of a top 3 pick. It is what it is, Buffalo/Arizona/Vancouver are likely too far back for the Habs to finish bottom 3 so I'm not too worried if the Habs finish 26th instead of 27th or 28th. 

The odds of winning the lottery are similar whether you're 4th last or 6th last, that part doesn't change much. What worries me more is the risk of what happens if you don't win the lottery. There is the potential to drop up to 3 spots and a pretty high likelihood of dropping 1 or 2.

So to me, the problem is finishing 28th means you could end up with the 7th overall pick at worst. Finishing 26th means you could wind up with the 9th overall pick, but it also means you have no shot at the 4th or 5th picks, it's either 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th. All in all, when you look at how most scouts/draft experts view the top end, you have Dahlin as the undisputed #1 right now. Then you have 3 top-end wingers in Zadina, Svechnikov, and Tkachuk, who are almost universally ranked 2-4. And then you have maybe 3-4 D men (Boqvist, Hughes, Bouchard, Dobson, etc.), but it seems like there's much less of a consensus on what order they should be drafted in.

So 26th vs. 28th? Well at 28th (4th last), you have a better shot at getting that last top-end forward before the drop-off. And despite our need for D men, I still see a Tkachuk or Zadina or Svechnikov as being a better asset than that second tier of defence, which is going to be much more of a crapshoot as to which ones will pan out and which ones will flop. If you're at 26th, your default draft spot is 6th, but there's likely an 80% chance you're not getting one of the top 4 and you're also not getting your first 2-3 cracks at your D man of choice and maybe you're not even getting one of them at all.

So the difference might be subtle, and maybe you still end up with the guy you want in the end, but despite the odds of winning the lottery being similar in those positions, the potential for falling down the draft and into lower tiers of players goes up. Ideally, we would have been in the last 3, but the odds of that are very low right now. I said a while ago that I saw Buffalo as having best odds of finishing last, followed by Arizona, and I agree that we're unlikely to see either of them catch us. Vancouver with their injuries now is likely next, then Ottawa. I think we're more in a battle with Det, NYR, and Edm for those next few spots but I'd be thrilled if one of Van or Ott also goes on a run and passes us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

The odds of winning the lottery are similar whether you're 4th last or 6th last, that part doesn't change much. What worries me more is the risk of what happens if you don't win the lottery. There is the potential to drop up to 3 spots and a pretty high likelihood of dropping 1 or 2.

So to me, the problem is finishing 28th means you could end up with the 7th overall pick at worst. Finishing 26th means you could wind up with the 9th overall pick, but it also means you have no shot at the 4th or 5th picks, it's either 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th. All in all, when you look at how most scouts/draft experts view the top end, you have Dahlin as the undisputed #1 right now. Then you have 3 top-end wingers in Zadina, Svechnikov, and Tkachuk, who are almost universally ranked 2-4. And then you have maybe 3-4 D men (Boqvist, Hughes, Bouchard, Dobson, etc.), but it seems like there's much less of a consensus on what order they should be drafted in.

So 26th vs. 28th? Well at 28th (4th last), you have a better shot at getting that last top-end forward before the drop-off. And despite our need for D men, I still see a Tkachuk or Zadina or Svechnikov as being a better asset than that second tier of defence, which is going to be much more of a crapshoot as to which ones will pan out and which ones will flop. If you're at 26th, your default draft spot is 6th, but there's likely an 80% chance you're not getting one of the top 4 and you're also not getting your first 2-3 cracks at your D man of choice and maybe you're not even getting one of them at all.

So the difference might be subtle, and maybe you still end up with the guy you want in the end, but despite the odds of winning the lottery being similar in those positions, the potential for falling down the draft and into lower tiers of players goes up. Ideally, we would have been in the last 3, but the odds of that are very low right now. I said a while ago that I saw Buffalo as having best odds of finishing last, followed by Arizona, and I agree that we're unlikely to see either of them catch us. Vancouver with their injuries now is likely next, then Ottawa. I think we're more in a battle with Det, NYR, and Edm for those next few spots but I'd be thrilled if one of Van or Ott also goes on a run and passes us.

Dont worry. regardless of where we end up we'll probably trade our pick for a top line LW. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, maas_art said:

Dont worry. regardless of where we end up we'll probably trade our pick for a top line LW. 

 

1 hour ago, ramcharger440 said:

NO no, righty D man or a depth righty Dman.

You're both wrong. We need some quality AHL'ers in Laval.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In MB we trust

http://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/stu-cowan-canadiens-in-dire-need-of-a-shanaplan-not-a-reset

 

Canadiens general manager Marc Bergevin believes his team only needs a “reset” not a “rebuild”.

“That’s me,” Bergevin said in early January when the Canadiens had a 17-20-4 record. “You might not like it.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, jeff33 said:

Im starting to wonder if thats actually the case.  would teams want these guys on their roster for free...yeah sure. are they going to give us what we would consider a really great haul....well it already looking like no one wanted to for captain invisible, and I wonder how much they want to give up for mr.locker room presence with one foot signed until the rapture.

 

It is my sinking feeling that we have a last place team because our star players stink, and everyone else knows it

:6280:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/14/2018 at 2:11 PM, habs1952 said:

If we trade all our veteran D-men we'll wind up needing to sign another. I think we'd be wise to keep Petry as a mentor to the young D-men.

Thats why I said "maybe Petry" ... he's the one vet D I'd keep to be honest, but if the right offer was on the table ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/simmons-nhl-teams-drooling-over-possible-free-agent-john-tavares

 

The options for Tavares will be many. San Jose and St. Louis are thought to be at the top of the list of suitors should he make himself available. Teams with cap space and potential need for a No. 1 centre such as Vancouver, Vegas, New Jersey, are almost certain to be all over the first line superstar.

Montreal has forever been in need of a first-line centre and even though the Rangers require a star forward, they say they won’t jump into the Tavares fire. And it’s hard to imagine Detroit and Carolina not taking a run at Tavares.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOL

He built this team under the assumption CP would be superhuman , year after year. He should have figured out , the year CP was injured and they missed the playoffs that the team  was crap. And now you're going to let him re build it

http://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/canadiens-notebook-geoff-molson-confirms-gm-marc-bergevin-will-return

 

"He's somebody who really understands how to build a hockey team," owner says with Habs set to miss playoffs for second time in three years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Regis22 said:

LOL

He built this team under the assumption CP would be superhuman , year after year. He should have figured out , the year CP was injured and they missed the playoffs that the team  was crap. And now you're going to let him re build it

http://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/canadiens-notebook-geoff-molson-confirms-gm-marc-bergevin-will-return

 

"He's somebody who really understands how to build a hockey team," owner says with Habs set to miss playoffs for second time in three years.

Sometimes, when the updated standings come out of the printer, they come out upside down, so at first glance maybe he thought we were top 5.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

LOL

He built this team under the assumption CP would be superhuman , year after year. He should have figured out , the year CP was injured and they missed the playoffs that the team  was crap. And now you're going to let him re build it

http://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/canadiens-notebook-geoff-molson-confirms-gm-marc-bergevin-will-return

 

"He's somebody who really understands how to build a hockey team," owner says with Habs set to miss playoffs for second time in three years.

That last quote, oh my god. does that not say it all or what.

clearly geoff, he sure does. 

are you also in the flat earth society? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

LOL

He built this team under the assumption CP would be superhuman , year after year. He should have figured out , the year CP was injured and they missed the playoffs that the team  was crap. And now you're going to let him re build it

http://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/canadiens-notebook-geoff-molson-confirms-gm-marc-bergevin-will-return

 

"He's somebody who really understands how to build a hockey team," owner says with Habs set to miss playoffs for second time in three years.

I think Molson still thinks we have a shot at the playoffs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • H_T_L locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...