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maas_art
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So it seems more and more likely we will compete for the draft lottery, with the playoffs just a pipe dream at this point.

Hopefully Marc Bergevin and Julien get the memo and use the remainder the season to move veterans, call up (and assess) young players etc.  Even if MB is replaced (as most of us hope) evaluating players like Scherbak and Juulsen etc would be in everyone's best interest.

Assuming we finish low enough to actually compete for the 1st overall lottery, obviously we will cross our collective fingers because Rasmus Dahlin seems like a potential Generational talent and there's a huge drop off after him.

That said, there are some very solid wingers available in the 2 - 5 slots (Zadina, Tkachuk, Svechnikov) as well as some solid puck moving defensmen.   But our biggest need - centre - is really thin this year.  Hayton & Veleno are the top ranked centres & neither even crack the top 10.

Whats your plan if you're GM?  If you dont get 1st overall, do you take another winger (the only place we're actually strong and young) or do you draft down?    Conventional wisdom is that you draft the best player available - so if thats Tkachuk you take him and either use him & trade an existing winger, when he's ready, or you trade him.    

But the other option would be trade the pick.  Especially if we're picking 4th or 5th or something, you may find better results by trading down.   There's some speculation that this draft has a lot of super talented players but that many of them still need a lot of time to develop.  So the 2nd round could yield a higher than average number of quality NHL players but they wont be ready for a few years.   

It will be interesting to see what happens.  Lets all hope for that #1 though - wow that would change this team in a hurry. 


Also, how would you "assist" the tank?

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1 hour ago, habs1952 said:

Clean house of players over 25 except Petry. I think Petry still has a few good years left and he can be a veteran teacher for young D-men.

Yeah, im on the fence about Petry.  On the one hand he's over my age cut-off for what I think we should retain but on the other, without him, we're in deep doo doo.    I think Petry, Mete, Juulsen are a decent start for a defense corps.   If you trade Weber and Patches Im assuming at least one top 4 dman comes back (obviously there would be prospects but hopefully you can get an established guy too) so I think we have the makings of a corps. 

-------  Petry

Mete --------

Benn/JJ -  Juulsen

And guys like Lernout may be ready to take a #5-7 role too.    The slot next to Petry is hopefully filled by one of the replacements (Hanafin has been rumored) and a solid vet next to Mete would be all we'd really need - like when we signed Hamrlik many moons ago.

We must absolutely positively not resign Morrow and try to get rid of guys like Alzner and Schlemko.  All 3 have actively hurt us this year although credit to Alzner, I think he's been a little better the last month or so. Too little, too late though. 


 

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Pick Dahlin, play him on the third pairing on the right side with Alzner, and trade him for Brent Seabrook in 2 years.

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For the draft I just hope the team takes BPA. It's pretty hard to complain about getting one of Svechnikov, Zadina, or Tkachuk even if they're not natural centers. I don't know much about any of these guys beyond what I heard people on TV say about them so I don't have any clue how I'd rank them. If the Habs scouting staff genuinely believe that one of the available centers (Veleno or I think Wahlstrom?) are the BPA at 4th or 5th then draft one of them, but from the sounds of it they're considered a tier below Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk so I wouldn't want to reach for a 2nd line center and miss out on an elite winger (or Boqvist)

1C and 1LD are massive gaping holes in the Habs' depth chart which makes wingers a strength in relative terms, but in absolute terms I wouldn't really call the Habs group of wingers particularly high end, and certainly not to the degree where I'd be comfortable reaching to pick a C with less upside. 67.27/92/11/62/54/65/Scherbak is good depth but with Pacioretty presumably traded it's much less impressive and I don't think it's anywhere near good enough that the team should pass on a Svechnikov/Zadina/Tkachuk. 

As for helping the tank it seems like trading Pacioretty is a foregone conclusion so that'd be a big part of it. After that I think you have to try and get value back for Plekanec, Benn, and Byron at the deadline. I think Byron in particular would be an interesting part of a Pacioretty deal with Edmonton or Nashville, both teams need to get faster and better on the wings, and if adding Byron greases the wheels enough to pull Fabbro/Tolvanen out of Nashville, or Draisaitl/ some combination of Puljujarvi/Klefbom/Yamamoto/1st out of Edmonton then you do it. Same with the hypothetical Weber trade with the Leafs, Byron could help in a deal based around Weber for Nylander+. 

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1 hour ago, Noob616 said:

Pick Dahlin, play him on the third pairing on the right side with Alzner, and trade him for Brent Seabrook in 2 years.

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^^^  :4224: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I just watched a show on TSN that gave us a 7.6% chance of picking Dahlin.

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1 minute ago, kinot-2 said:

I just watched a show on TSN that gave us a 7.6% chance of picking Dahlin.

yeah for right now its slim because its unclear how we'll finish the year.  On paper we should not be a bottom 3 team.   

If we try really hard though, we can do it, we can tank properly!!

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Just now, maas_art said:

yeah for right now its slim because its unclear how we'll finish the year.  On paper we should not be a bottom 3 team.   

If we try really hard though, we can do it, we can tank properly!!

Hmmmm, didn't know there was a "proper" way to tank. :D

 

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1 hour ago, kinot-2 said:

Hmmmm, didn't know there was a "proper" way to tank. :D

 

I believe it requires hiring Bergevin and requiring a french speaking coach so the candidate pool  for a coach is small. Then it would take trading away the best defensive prospect in the draft year prior for a winger who is asked to play center and insisting that the American Born player drafted as a center is a winger.

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While things can change over the next 5 months, the plan as of right now has to be

1. Deal away any player who cannot help you 2-3 years from now. That means Alzner, Schlemko, Benn, Morrow, and Plekanec should all be on the block. I think you also need to be shopping Weber, Pacioretty, Petry, Price, Byron, and Shaw, albeit I don't see the urgency to trade any of these players. These could be summer deals, or you could choose to retain 2-3 of them, depending on whether the return is worth it.

2. If you win the lottery, Plan A is Dahlin. He's being billed as half-Lidstrom, half-Karlsson and most scouts think he's an NHL-ready game-changer who will develop into a #1 D man.

3. If you don't win the lottery but you do get a top 5 pick, the next 4 guys appear to be (in no particular order) Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, and Boqvist. The first 3 are wingers, the last is a puck-moving offensive defenceman. All of them would be great adds. And the next set of prospects after that are all D men and wingers too... there aren't really any centers viewed as top picks this year, and I simply wouldn't reach for Veleno or Hayden or anyone else if we're in the top 5. You would have the option of trading down in the draft and taking a center later, but personally, I'd rather have the top 5 pick. All of the top 5 are viewed as top-pairing D men or top-line wingers, and even some of the D men just behind Dahlin and Boqvist (like Hughes, Dobson, Bouchard, etc.) are possible top pairing guys. We did well selecting Galchenyuk and we did well selecting Sergachev, and I wouldn't pass up a top 5-10 choice without a very good reason. Past Dahlin, my personal preference at this time is Zadina. I've seen highlights of his play and I saw some of his WJ games and he's got one heck of a quick release. I also really liked what I saw of Tkachuk, who seems like a bit more of a complete player but less of a sniper than Zadina. I'm less sure of Svechnikov, just from having seen less of him, not because he's any less good. But if i had a top 5 choice, I'd be keeping it and going BPA, because that guy has a very good chance of helping immediately and being a good NHLer, whereas the centers seem like reaches and may be more of two-way guys or 2nd/3rd line guys, akin to what we already have with Poehling, Danault, or Ikonen. So if you end up with a Zadina or Tkachuk, it just reinforces the thought that you should deal Pacioretty or Drouin or AG or Weber for a 1C.

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2 hours ago, ThinkOutsidethebox said:

I believe it requires hiring Bergevin and requiring a french speaking coach so the candidate pool  for a coach is small. Then it would take trading away the best defensive prospect in the draft year prior for a winger who is asked to play center and insisting that the American Born player drafted as a center is a winger.

Clear as mud,,,, TY. :)

 

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17 hours ago, ThinkOutsidethebox said:

I believe it requires hiring Bergevin and requiring a french speaking coach so the candidate pool  for a coach is small. Then it would take trading away the best defensive prospect in the draft year prior for a winger who is asked to play center and insisting that the American Born player drafted as a center is a winger.

The Habs have completely muddled up a ton of players when it comes to playing wing vs center. They drafted Galchenyuk as a center, seen him perform well offensively there, but failed to develop him defensively and then shifted him back and forth to wing multiple times. They had a great two-way center in Eller and played him at wing for long stretches to be able to accommodate keeping Desharnais there. They shuffled Hudon from wing to center and back in the AHL. They took a perfectly good winger in McCarron and ruined his development by trying to turn him into a top 6 center and now into a defensive center. They moved Flynn back and forth. They thought Drouin could play center and then claimed he couldn't, but put him right back there a couple of days later. They've moved Byron to the middle and they've played Shaw there as well. In short, they seem content to experiment with players moving in and out of the center spot but don't give players a prolonged chance to learn the position nor the coaching to make that happen. The team must have the worst pro scouting and development systems in the league. It's horrendous.

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FWIW.

Lottery Watch:

1. Arizona - 33.5 Net Losses
2. Buffalo - 30.5
3. Ottawa - 27.5
4. Vancouver - 27.0
5. Montreal - 26.0
6. Edmonton - 25.5
(Next Western Conference team is Chicago - 22.5)

...

I'm fuzzy grey on all the lottery rules. Can only the bottom 3 teams get a kick at first overall? Or is it open to all 15 teams that miss the playoffs?

Either way, It's looking like a downhill battle to get to worst or second worst. We could potentially finish anywhere from 3rd last to 8th or 9th.

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7 minutes ago, Flying_Lion said:

FWIW.

Lottery Watch:

1. Arizona - 33.5 Net Losses
2. Buffalo - 30.5
3. Ottawa - 27.5
4. Vancouver - 27.0
5. Montreal - 26.0
6. Edmonton - 25.5
(Next Western Conference team is Chicago - 22.5)

...

I'm fuzzy grey on all the lottery rules. Can only the bottom 3 teams get a kick at first overall? Or is it open to all 15 teams that miss the playoffs?

Either way, It's looking like a downhill battle to get to worst or second worst. We could potentially finish anywhere from 3rd last to 8th or 9th.

All teams that miss the playoffs have a shot at the top 3 choices, but the odds go down the higher up the standings you are.

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6 hours ago, Flying_Lion said:

I'm fuzzy grey on all the lottery rules. Can only the bottom 3 teams get a kick at first overall? Or is it open to all 15 teams that miss the playoffs?

They do three lotteries for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd overall picks. Any team that misses the playoffs has a chance and the chances gradually lower as you move up the standings. NJD went from 5th to 1st, PHI from like 10th to 2nd, and Dallas from like 8th to 3rd I think.

Finishing last in the league only guarantees you the 4th pick now, and I think they actually weighted it so the odds of a last place team drafting 4th are as good as their odds at getting one of the top 3 picks.

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On 1/27/2018 at 1:15 PM, BigTed3 said:

The Habs have completely muddled up a ton of players when it comes to playing wing vs center. They drafted Galchenyuk as a center, seen him perform well offensively there, but failed to develop him defensively and then shifted him back and forth to wing multiple times. They had a great two-way center in Eller and played him at wing for long stretches to be able to accommodate keeping Desharnais there. They shuffled Hudon from wing to center and back in the AHL. They took a perfectly good winger in McCarron and ruined his development by trying to turn him into a top 6 center and now into a defensive center. They moved Flynn back and forth. They thought Drouin could play center and then claimed he couldn't, but put him right back there a couple of days later. They've moved Byron to the middle and they've played Shaw there as well. In short, they seem content to experiment with players moving in and out of the center spot but don't give players a prolonged chance to learn the position nor the coaching to make that happen. The team must have the worst pro scouting and development systems in the league. It's horrendous.

It's so utterly horrendous Ted.  It's downright embarrassing.  If they had hired a pylon to sit in the GM chair 6 years ago then the Habs would be in a better spot, seriously, if he had made zero moves, we'd have Price playing lights out in his contract year to convince the pylon to extend him(I was convinced that Price deserved the contract he got, and still am).  Sure Rad and Markov are gone but we still have Subban and Sergachev.  Desharnais is holding down the fort like he always has at 2C...ok maybe even the pylon trades him, lol.  Anyway, my point is that you could try to make this team worse than it was a few years ago and fail at it but somehow MB found a way to do it perfectly.  

As far at the Tank job, well I do not believe in them, I say end this season fighting until the end, it only does the team good to get a winning culture back in the room, tanking now ain't what it used to be, if it was then Edmonton would be lighting up the league and would have a few cups to add to their 5.  If I am GM, I hold onto all off my valuable pieces because most of them are at their lowest value ever, Weber will get you nothing, Patches is undervalued by most GMs, Price's numbers aren't good (again, I feel this does not quantify the value he still has to this team), Gallagher is the beating heart of this org; untouchable in my opinion, Petry is our last bastion as far as experienced PMD.  

The only players that I would trade before the deadline is Plekanec, Alzner, Benn, Morrow, Shaw.  You don't get much for those guys but this upcoming UFA off season is looking pretty decent, so patience is key here. Who knows, maybe Tavares might be plausible ( I still think that's a massive pipe dream but if MB pulls that one off then I give him another 6 year plan;)) So with Plks 6m off the books, if you manage to trade Alzner (4.6m) and Shaw (3.9m), that opens up 14.5m (just enough to get Tavares!! 

:5141:

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Weber is out long-term. Playing Benn, Schlemko, Morrow, and Alzner definitely helps the tank. No matter what the forwards do, having the worst D corps in the league (and that's pretty much what they are) propels us closer to a bottom finish.

If the plan is to trade Pacioretty, the sooner the better. There are other guys who will become available as more teams fall out of the race, and Hoffman and Kane are already clogging up the market for scoring wingers. Maybe we're not dealing him, but if the plan is to ship him out before the deadline, MB has got to make that deal sooner rather than later. It's also imperative that we deal Plekanec for whatever the market gives us as a return. I think it's worth bringing up McCarron, Scherbak, and Juulsen and giving them a shot in the top 9. Forget Froese, Logan Shaw, DLR, etc. Those players have no worth long-term. We need to know what our prospects can do. I'd go

Hudon-Galchenyuk-Gallagher

Drouin-McCarron-Scherbak

Lehkonen-Danault-Shaw

Deslauriers-Byron-Carr

 

On D, we need to know if we have a legit 2nd pairing for next year in Metry. Let Jerabek-Juulsen play together as a possible 3rd pairing for next year. And then let the 3rd duo flounder and help the tank:

Mete-Petry

Jerabek-Juulsen

Alzner-Schlemko/Benn

 

Either the youngsters show good things or they help the draft odds. It's a win-win.

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1 hour ago, Regis22 said:

Buffalo is in reach

I'd love that to have a real good shot at Dahlin, but we're about 10 points ahead I believe and they'll start trading assets like Kane soon. Not sure we can catch them.

Either way, it's starting to look like a really low bottom 5 finish is more and more realistic, maybe even Ottawa can overtake us with Weber, Danault and Shaw out long-term.

Getting a NHL-calibre player in the draft and trading vets for prospects and picks could mean a quick 'retool' may be possible.

Now we just have to find a way to get rid of MB.

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The problem with the draft lottery for us is that even if you finish low, you're even more likely to not pick in the spot you finish in than to stay there. And you're more likely to drop down than move up. So if we finish 4th or 5th last, for example, we could be picking 7th or 8th, which would likely land us a good D prospect but not a top-of-the-draft blue chipper. I really think the goal should be bottom 3 to give ourselves good odds of staying in the top 5.

Good news based on last night at least, with Ottawa and Vancouver winning and Edmonton getting a loser point.

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3 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

I really think the goal should be bottom 3 to give ourselves good odds of staying in the top 5.

agreed. It woudl be amazing to get Dahlin but its unlikely.  Getting a #3-5 pick would be a very very good consolation prize. Picking 7 or 8 would be good - but chances are good that guy doesnt suit up for us for 3+ years. 

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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

agreed. It woudl be amazing to get Dahlin but its unlikely.  Getting a #3-5 pick would be a very very good consolation prize. Picking 7 or 8 would be good - but chances are good that guy doesnt suit up for us for 3+ years

Maybe not with our roster, especially if end up trading guys like MP and AG

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15 minutes ago, booboo_mtl said:

Maybe not with our roster, especially if end up trading guys like MP and AG

Yeah, maybe.  And its always such a tough balance between not wanting to rush a guy too fast and needing to challenge him beyond the minors. Really wish we knew what was happening with our management group going forward. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Alain Vigneault has announced the Rangers will sit Lundqvist and start rookie call-up Georgiev tomorrow against Montreal... we do poorly against rookies, but from AV's point of view, he's got to be trying to out-tank us. They've also announced Kreider is near return but won't play against us, likely just the next game... also tank-spicious.

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