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maas_art
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I wonder how much "NHL ready" is going to influence MB.   What i mean is, lets say NYI offered us both their 1st round picks AND Aho or Pulock for 3rd overall (they wont, but im just saying imagine a scenario).  Chances are that deal is going to work out much better in our favour than just taking 1 guy.  With a draft this deep you could very easily walk away with 2 top end players + that young defensman they included.    This is a hug win.  But would MB do it?  Probably not.

Despite what molson says, i think MB is on thin ice. I think 1 more bad year & he's gone. So i suspect he drafts the guy who is most NHL ready.   So while Timmins may say " MMW Kotkaniemi will be the best player in this draft" if that doesnt happen for 2 - 3 years, will MB forgo Zadina or Svechnikov who both look NHL ready right now? I dont think so. 

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I dont know much about Murray Pam but apparently he's known in the ottawa region.   His tweet apparently talking to Zadina:

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9 hours ago, maas_art said:

Despite what molson says, i think MB is on thin ice. I think 1 more bad year & he's gone. So i suspect he drafts the guy who is most NHL ready.   So while Timmins may say " MMW Kotkaniemi will be the best player in this draft" if that doesnt happen for 2 - 3 years, will MB forgo Zadina or Svechnikov who both look NHL ready right now? I dont think so. 

Here are a couple of reasons why MB might in fact opt for a guy like Kotkaniemi who's not NHL-ready right away:

1. MB has survived a performance that would have gotten most GM's fired. He's been brutal and yet Molson has kept him around. I suspect Bergevin has to have presented him with a plan going forward and that might include a "mini-rebuild." I think if MB has sold Molson on "we need to draft and develop our own centers because trading for them is too hard" then he probably has the green light to do so and have 2-3 years to have them be NHL-ready.

2. Timmins and Bergevin have both gone on record saying they plan to draft the player who may not be the top guy next year but whom they want to be the top guy in 2-3 years and have the best career. It's not a bad philosophy in general, as long as it's part of a plan to also trade away Price, Weber, etc. and have other pieces that fit into your target Cup window. That said, there are really only two reasons for the team to say something like this. One possibility is that they're trying to throw other teams off with who they'll draft, but that probably isn't necessary. We know Buffalo is almost certainly taking Dahlin. Don Wadell has flat out said he's unlikely to trade the pick and he's choosing a forward who will be able to play in their top 9 next season, which means it's either Svechnikov or Zadina. I don't think anyone else is a lock to fit that description. So for the Habs, you know you're going to be left with one of those two guys (likely Zadina) vs. the rest of the pack. There isn't much reason to pretend you're going to draft a less-ready guy because frankly, there aren't enough teams ahead of you to steal the three NHL-ready players in this year's draft. One of them is guaranteed to fall to you. The other reason to make that announcement, which is much more likely, is that TT and MB want to set the table for a possible pick of someone else so that fans don't jump all over them for not taking Zadina. Once they make the pick, the Habs can then say we took Kotkaniemi or Hughes or Tkachuk or whoever else because they saw him being the better player down the line, even if he won't be on the Habs roster for 1 year or two.

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9 hours ago, maas_art said:

I wonder how much "NHL ready" is going to influence MB.   What i mean is, lets say NYI offered us both their 1st round picks AND Aho or Pulock for 3rd overall (they wont, but im just saying imagine a scenario).  Chances are that deal is going to work out much better in our favour than just taking 1 guy.  With a draft this deep you could very easily walk away with 2 top end players + that young defensman they included.    This is a hug win.  But would MB do it?  Probably not.

If we leave out Pulock for a second, I think trading the 3rd for the 11th and 12th becomes an interesting discussion point, IF you are already sure you're not taking Zadina. You don't get a Zadina at 11 or 12. But if you're planning on drafting a Kotkaniemi or Hughes or Tkachuk or so on, the question becomes whether you can get a better package at 11 and 12. Maybe you don't get your first choice of player but if you're getting a guy who's a bit more of a risk, is it better to get one guy you're a little more sure of or two guys you're maybe less sure of but who give you two cracks at finding a star?

I think the question then becomes what players might be left at 11-12. Who'll be gone for sure? Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk, and Hughes are virtual locks to be in the top 10 in my view. I've also said a few times that I'd be surprised to see Kotkaniemi make it past Chicago and if by some chance he does, I'd be even more surprised to see him make it past Edmonton too. Pretty decent chance that Wahlstrom and Bouchard are also off the board. So that's 8 guys right there.

Who else is in the mix for the top 10? Dobson for sure. Boqvist. Maybe Hayton or Veleno. Maybe Farabee or Ty Smith. So you need to ask yourself who your top 12 ranked players are and which two you're okay with getting if that's how it falls. For me, I see the 8 guys I listed above as being in that top 12, with Dobson and Boqvist being there for sure too. So the guys I think the Habs need to ponder here are Hayton, Veleno, Rasmus Kupari, Ty Smith, and Bode Wilde. Those are probably the guys in that next tier who play center or D and who meet our needs while potentially being the best player available. I'd love to see a Boqvist or Dobson or Bouchard fall to 11, but if it doesn't happen, then you take your pick of two of those 5 guys I listed: Hayton, Veleno, Kupari, Smith, and Wilde. For me, I'd be leaning towards taking Veleno and Kupari with those two picks and loading up at my chances down the middle. Some people have compared Hayton to Patrice Bergeron but there's hesitation for me because I don't think he's viewed as having the same offensive ability and finish. Kupari is a real under the radar pick with a chance to be a star IMO. A little light right now, but man does he have great hands and he's a better skater than Kotkaniemi, not to mention a right-handed shot.

So I don't know... I still like Zadina over 11-12 together. But if it's not Zadina, would Veleno + Kupari be better than Kotkaniemi alone? Would Veleno + Smith be better than Hughes alone? Tough questions.

 

 

 

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IMO, I don't think we'll hear anything until the draft. At that point, Bettman will stand up and will say "We have a trade to announce, You might want to hear this". 

I think that MB will wait until the last minute, at the draft, and make a trade. Be it up, or down in the draft, or a straight trade of players, or a combo of both pics and players.. IMO, he has to hit a home run at the draft, no matter what he does. His leash is getting shorter every year.

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4 minutes ago, kinot-2 said:

IMO, I don't think we'll hear anything until the draft. At that point, Bettman will stand up and will say "We have a trade to announce, You might want to hear this". 

I think that MB will wait until the last minute, at the draft, and make a trade. Be it up, or down in the draft, or a straight trade of players, or a combo of both pics and players.. IMO, he has to hit a home run at the draft, no matter what he does. His leash is getting shorter every year.

for sure. and most of the time thats the smart play anyway.  Lets say we take Zadina and are really high on Kotkaniemi too. NY has just picked & its edmonton's turn and he is still available. That is when you swoop in & offer pacioretty for #10 + ______   You dont make that move too early because if Detroit or Chicago picks him, you may decide what's left isnt as good a return as what you'd get for Pacioretty etc. 

I think draft day is going to be very interesting. 

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55 minutes ago, maas_art said:

for sure. and most of the time thats the smart play anyway.  Lets say we take Zadina and are really high on Kotkaniemi too. NY has just picked & its edmonton's turn and he is still available. That is when you swoop in & offer pacioretty for #10 + ______   You dont make that move too early because if Detroit or Chicago picks him, you may decide what's left isnt as good a return as what you'd get for Pacioretty etc. 

I think draft day is going to be very interesting. 

Hopefully, MB and Timmins will have it let it be known exactly the players who they are willing to move, and "if" they are willing to trade draft pics for players + pics (4 2nds) (whether it be Weber, Price, or Max) to get the prospects/players they want. 

BTW, 

The New Jersey Devils wouldn't be opposed to moving down in the 2018 NHL Draft if it meant obtaining additional assets, general manager Ray Shero told NHL.com on Saturday.

The Devils hold six picks in the draft, including one (No. 17) in the first three rounds. That's a reversal from the 11 picks they made at the 2017 NHL Draft, including center Nico Hischier with the No. 1 choice after winning the NHL Draft Lottery.

FWIW: 

Barrett Hayton was a complementary player with Sault Ste. Marie of the Ontario Hockey League this season. His former coach believes he's ready for a lead role next season.

Hayton (6-foot-1, 190 pounds), a center ranked No. 9 on NHL Central Scouting's final list of North American skaters for the 2018 NHL Draft, had 60 points (21 goals, 39 assists) in 63 games.

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16 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Here are a couple of reasons why MB might in fact opt for a guy like Kotkaniemi who's not NHL-ready right away:

1. MB has survived a performance that would have gotten most GM's fired. He's been brutal and yet Molson has kept him around. I suspect Bergevin has to have presented him with a plan going forward and that might include a "mini-rebuild." I think if MB has sold Molson on "we need to draft and develop our own centers because trading for them is too hard" then he probably has the green light to do so and have 2-3 years to have them be NHL-ready.

2. Timmins and Bergevin have both gone on record saying they plan to draft the player who may not be the top guy next year but whom they want to be the top guy in 2-3 years and have the best career. It's not a bad philosophy in general, as long as it's part of a plan to also trade away Price, Weber, etc. and have other pieces that fit into your target Cup window. That said, there are really only two reasons for the team to say something like this. One possibility is that they're trying to throw other teams off with who they'll draft, but that probably isn't necessary. We know Buffalo is almost certainly taking Dahlin. Don Wadell has flat out said he's unlikely to trade the pick and he's choosing a forward who will be able to play in their top 9 next season, which means it's either Svechnikov or Zadina. I don't think anyone else is a lock to fit that description. So for the Habs, you know you're going to be left with one of those two guys (likely Zadina) vs. the rest of the pack. There isn't much reason to pretend you're going to draft a less-ready guy because frankly, there aren't enough teams ahead of you to steal the three NHL-ready players in this year's draft. One of them is guaranteed to fall to you. The other reason to make that announcement, which is much more likely, is that TT and MB want to set the table for a possible pick of someone else so that fans don't jump all over them for not taking Zadina. Once they make the pick, the Habs can then say we took Kotkaniemi or Hughes or Tkachuk or whoever else because they saw him being the better player down the line, even if he won't be on the Habs roster for 1 year or two.

If that's the plan, it behooves us to trade Weber, Price and Patches and to leave Pleky out of the picture.

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20 minutes ago, habs1952 said:

If that's the plan, it behooves us to trade Weber, Price and Patches and to leave Pleky out of the picture.

I'd love for that to happen but I suspect MB will do almost nothing to change the structure of this present team (ie: he will keep Pacioretty, Price, Weber and re-sign Plekanec).

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30 minutes ago, habs1952 said:

If that's the plan, it behooves us to trade Weber, Price and Patches and to leave Pleky out of the picture.

 

2 minutes ago, Habs=stanleycup said:

I'd love for that to happen but I suspect MB will do almost nothing to change the structure of this present team (ie: he will keep Pacioretty, Price, Weber and re-sign Plekanec).

Agree with you both. This team has plenty of 22-26 year old vets who you could build a nucleus around.  Add in Zadina / Svechnikov and flip Pacioretty, Price and Weber for young guys or top picks and we might be competitive as early as next year.  Certainly it wouldnt be a long process.


Im afraid though, that the answer MB will be looking at is to compete right away. I think he still believes we have a window with Price and Weber.  And in fairness, its possible. If you added Tavares and Statsny as UFAs (no loss of assets) and you flipped one LW for a top pairing LD this team is already better.  Add in the new coaches and its possible we are a contender.  But for how long? Is signing Tavares attainable? what will it cost us to get that LD?  

there's a lot of questions and Im not confident MB has the tools to answer them properly. 

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15 hours ago, Born-To-Be-A-Hab said:

According to Hockeybuzz Montreal is taking Trachuk with the 3rd pick .

Lol.  Considering how bad HB is at predicting trades, you'd think they'd stay away from something even knowledgable experts have a hard time guessing at: the draft.

50 minutes ago, kinot-2 said:

Out of the 104 prospects at the NHL Combine,,,, Zadina ranked 86th in ranking. 

Meh. They are useful tests for sure but the most important elements of hockey (namely, vision) are tough to test.    If Timmins thinks he's the right guy, id take him.   I am very curious if Zadina was right though when he said he feels like Montreal will take a defensman or a center.  Quinn Hughes is slowly creeping up the draft boards and is a LHD unlike Boqvist who would fall back in our depth charts. 

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Yeah I wouldn't put a ton of value on the physical tests at the combine, they're all teenagers and those physical tools will change a lot by the time most of those players are pros at age 22+. Also as @maas_art said, hockey depends a lot on mental skills/vision etc and raw physical tools are usually not enough at the NHL level. Andrei Kostistyn was strong as an ox with good skating, great puck skills, and an excellent shot, but those tools aren't enough without high end hockey sense. 

 

Tom Brady's combine results are a good example. look at that guy giggling at 1:05. It would have been difficult to watch him in 2000 and come away from that combine expecting he would ever make it, let alone become possibly the greatest quarterback to play the game.

 

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More interesting (and disappointing) news today from Carolina, where Don Waddell did another interview. He states that he is really impressed with Svechnikov and that while there are other good players to discuss, if the draft were to occur today and the Sabres took Dahlin as expected, his choice would be Svechnikov. He added that this is IF the Canes keep the pick, but he's already said he expects the team to keep the pick, so looks pretty likely that it goes Dahlin 1 and Svech 2 and we're left deciding between Zadina and Kotkaniemi and Hughes.

On another note though, there are some rumors out of Arizona that Chayka has been angling at either moving up or down in the draft and that he's had discussions with Bergevin about flipping 5 for 3. The problem is that the Coyotes apparently don't want to give up too much to make that happen. But given that we know they've been trying to move Domi, would the 3rd overall for Domi and the 5th be fair? If I'm Bergevin, I likely don't make that trade until it's my turn to pick on draft day, one to be sure that Svechnikov actually goes 2nd and two because right at that moment another team might offer more to jump up for their player.

I'm honestly not sure who Chayka would be aiming for here though. Phoenix has OEL and Chychrun on D, but not much else there, and OEL isn't signed past next year, so part of me really feels like they like Quinn Hughes. The obvious choice at 3 is Zadina but not sure why a team would move up two spots for him, when there's a possibility the Habs go with JK and Ottawa goes with Tkachuk and you end up with Zadina at 5 anyways. Or maybe Chayka likes Tkachuk... he's always been into faster possession type players though, which is why Hughes really just jumps out at me as the guy they want. In any case, it would possibly be a dream move for MB if he can drop two spots. If you lose Zadina and Tkachuk, you take your choice of Hughes or Kotkaniemi and grab another asset. If someone else takes one of those two, you have Zadina or Tkachuk sitting there at 5 anyways. Lots of possibilities with that type of trade, and it doesn't take you down far enough to fall out of the conversation for the 2-3 guys you're looking at.

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Chayka has now done another interview on nhl.com where he states the Coyotes do not plan on trading their pick, by which he seems to mean that they aren't dealing their 1st rounder for an established player. I don't think this rules out a swap of picks completely. However, Chayka does say that his scouting staff feels they will get a very good player at 5 and that they like the players who should be available to them there. So no sense of urgency to move up for their guy.

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Tons of rumours about the Habs being interested in Kotkaniemi. Bob McKenzie on his podcast today saying that the draft has shifted in the minds of a lot of scouts, for most of the year it was a very clear Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk top 4, but at this point ratings are all over the place after Svechnikov and that it wouldn't be off the board or crazy to take Kotkaniemi #3. 

It would certainly be interesting. I don't really want the Habs to reach and take a guy who's ranked #10 with the #3 pick just because he's a center, but if he's plausibly the #3 or #4 player in the draft it might be worth it. Would really hurt to see Zadina in Ottawa though. 

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12 minutes ago, Noob616 said:

Tons of rumours about the Habs being interested in Kotkaniemi. Bob McKenzie on his podcast today saying that the draft has shifted in the minds of a lot of scouts, for most of the year it was a very clear Dahlin, Svechnikov, Zadina, Tkachuk top 4, but at this point ratings are all over the place after Svechnikov and that it wouldn't be off the board or crazy to take Kotkaniemi #3. 

It would certainly be interesting. I don't really want the Habs to reach and take a guy who's ranked #10 with the #3 pick just because he's a center, but if he's plausibly the #3 or #4 player in the draft it might be worth it. Would really hurt to see Zadina in Ottawa though. 

The only hesitation I have about Kotkaniemi is his skating. There are some questions there, and we've seen the likes of Chipchura and Leblanc and Chouinard and McCarron flame out as first round picks because their skating wasn't up to snuff. Kotkaniemi is in a different class in terms of skill and he's being discussed at a #3, not a lower first round pick, but you have to be able to skate to play in today's NHL, especially if there's any hope of being a 1C.

That said, completely agreed that he's in the discussion with Zadina, Tkachuk (regrettably), and Quinn Hughes for the 3rd overall. All of those players have their deficiencies, not just Kotkaniemi. There are questions about Zadina's game away from the puck, of Tkachuk's ability to produce offence at the NHL level, and of Hughes' size and defensive prowess. It's tough to compare such different styles of players, so again, I'm happy leaving this up to Timmins' evaluation, so long as it's he and not Bergevin who's making the choice. As it stands now, I think I'd be really excited to get any of Zadina, Kotkaniemi, or Hughes. I'd be a bit disappointed if the pick were Tkachuk, Bouchard, Dobson, or Boqvist, the last of whom I think could be great but is more of a gamble.

Whatever the pick, I think the Habs have done a good job masking who they're aiming to take, and we've had all 4 players rumored to be the guy. The benefit is that if Svechnikov does go #2 and someone offers to trade up, you have the chance of dropping down a couple of spots and still getting the player you want.

As for Ottawa, like I mentioned yesterday, with the latest fiascos, there are rumors they may yet trade the pick to Colorado. If they do keep it, I really wonder if they're more enamored with Tkachuk than Zadina too.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

That said, completely agreed that he's in the discussion with Zadina, Tkachuk (regrettably), and Quinn Hughes for the 3rd overall.

Im really hoping that with Tkachuk saying he's definitely playing another year of college hockey, MB has lost interest because despite what they say, i think they want a guy with at least a chance of playing in the NHl next year.   I think he will be a good player but he is projecting as a tier down from some of the other guys we're looking at. 

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Brian Burke says he's heard the Habs are going to draft a center, that they have several they like, and that the plan is to trade down to pick up an asset and still get a center in a more appropriate range. Guessing that includes Kotkaniemi but then also possibly Veleno, Hayton, and/or Kupari.

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Here's my final Big Board (top 20 draft-eligible players). This is not a mock draft or prediction of where they'll go, just the order in which I think they are ranked as prospects:

1. Dahlin

2. Svechnikov

3. Zadina

4. Hughes

5. Kotkaniemi

6. Tkachuk

7. Dobson

8. Bouchard

9. Boqvist

10. Wahlstrom

11. Veleno

12. Hayton

13. Kupari (who MMW could be the surprise of the draft)

14. Ty Smith

15. Denisenko

16.Kravstov

17. Miller

18. Farabee

19. Berggren

20. Wilde

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This guy thinks the Habs will pick. The last part is IMO  a sad reflection on Montreal's scouting dept

http://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-draft-weekend-a-chance-to-turn-struggling-franchises-around

 

3. Montreal: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C

6-foot-2, 188 pounds

Assat (Fin) 57GP 10G 19A 29PTS

The Canadiens need a centre — a legitimate one, that is. And the Finnish-born Kotkaniemi, who has been shooting up the draft rankings, is the best one available in this year’s draft. Scouts compare him to Anze Kopitar, because he can score but also because he’s noticeable even when he’s not factoring the scoresheet. Either way, he’s a better option up the middle than Jonathan Drouin

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Seems like over the last month or so Kotkaneimi has gone from being a mid first round guy that could squeak into the top 10, to magically being a top 5 talent, and I just don't understand why. Maybe someone here can help me understand. Like, what has happened since then? What is the justification for such a change in perception? When I first read his name on here I was curious, checked him out. Looks good. But not top 5 good. It almost feels like the media and sports writers are pushing some kind of agenda. I'm not sure what, or why. Everyday I read an article about how Montreal needs help up the middle, and Kotkaneimi is the answer. 2 months ago he was hardly even viewed as a center, and now he's being sold to us as the best center in the draft. I've looked long and hard, he is not the best center in the draft. The best center in the draft is Veleno, followed closely by Hayton. Kotkaneimi slots in somewhere after those two. Now I'm not saying we should reach for Veleno, just that he is the #1 center. Personally, if we were going to reach for a center, I would rather it be for the best center available. NHL Draft Central has a great video on youtube where he compares Kotkaneimi, Veleno and Hayton. Pretty solid evaluations, and despite by his own comparisons Veleno basically walking away with the win, his still makes Kotkaneimi his #1 choice. Lol, I just don't get it....

 

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8 minutes ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

Seems like over the last month or so Kotkaneimi has gone from being a mid first round guy that could squeak into the top 10, to magically being a top 5 talent, and I just don't understand why. Maybe someone here can help me understand. Like, what has happened since then? What is the justification for such a change in perception? When I first read his name on here I was curious, checked him out. Looks good. But not top 5 good. It almost feels like the media and sports writers are pushing some kind of agenda. I'm not sure what, or why. Everyday I read an article about how Montreal needs help up the middle, and Kotkaneimi is the answer. 2 months ago he was hardly even viewed as a center, and now he's being sold to us as the best center in the draft. I've looked long and hard, he is not the best center in the draft. The best center in the draft is Veleno, followed closely by Hayton. Kotkaneimi slots in somewhere after those two. Now I'm not saying we should reach for Veleno, just that he is the #1 center. Personally, if we were going to reach for a center, I would rather it be for the best center available. NHL Draft Central has a great video on youtube where he compares Kotkaneimi, Veleno and Hayton. Pretty solid evaluations, and despite by his own comparisons Veleno basically walking away with the win, his still makes Kotkaneimi his #1 choice. Lol, I just don't get it....

 

I believe they believe this because he is playing in a league against men. Which is harder and also a league where you learn the defensive side of the game also. The OHL and Q are leagues that are easy to rack up points and look good playing against 15-16 year olds. Julien definitely would want a two way center over just an offensive center as most all NHL coaches. 

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35 minutes ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

Seems like over the last month or so Kotkaneimi has gone from being a mid first round guy that could squeak into the top 10, to magically being a top 5 talent, and I just don't understand why. Maybe someone here can help me understand. Like, what has happened since then? What is the justification for such a change in perception? When I first read his name on here I was curious, checked him out. Looks good. But not top 5 good. It almost feels like the media and sports writers are pushing some kind of agenda. I'm not sure what, or why. Everyday I read an article about how Montreal needs help up the middle, and Kotkaneimi is the answer. 2 months ago he was hardly even viewed as a center, and now he's being sold to us as the best center in the draft. I've looked long and hard, he is not the best center in the draft. The best center in the draft is Veleno, followed closely by Hayton. Kotkaneimi slots in somewhere after those two. Now I'm not saying we should reach for Veleno, just that he is the #1 center. Personally, if we were going to reach for a center, I would rather it be for the best center available. NHL Draft Central has a great video on youtube where he compares Kotkaneimi, Veleno and Hayton. Pretty solid evaluations, and despite by his own comparisons Veleno basically walking away with the win, his still makes Kotkaneimi his #1 choice. Lol, I just don't get it....

Kokaniemi is 17 years old & has been playing against men (and doing pretty well). I think the age thing is the biggest factor - he's made large improvements over the last 6 months while older guys have shown less improvement over that time.  Dahlin is over a  year older than him, Tkachuk, Zadina and most others are nearly a full year older too. Only Svechnikov is close to his age.  

So i think its a combination of being less noticable (since it took him time to adapt in the men's league) and him making big improvements very recently.  I certainly am no scout so I dont know what these guys are looking for, but pretty much every one of them seems to think he's made massive strides in the last 6-8 months so I would think there's something there. 

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