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maas_art
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^^ Agreed on the above posts... people have pushed JK because he's had success against older players and because he's done so at a younger age than some of the other draft-eligible players. I think people ask, what did Zadina or Veleno do the year before and what trajectory have their development taken. In JK's case as well, the junior tournament was a big eye-opener because he played really well and did so as a center. So I think scouts and media said, here's a more fair comparison for what JK can do against kids his own age and that really boosted public opinion of him, after which I think momentum has kind of taken over.

If I'm handicapping this right now, I'd say 60% odds we pick JK, 25% Tkachuk, 10% Zadina, and 5% Hughes. Odds are high it'll be one of those guys.

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Even though I still think we should take Zadina, I would be okay with taking Kotkaniemi at #3 – or preferably trading down 1-2 spots to grab an additional asset and still get our guy but let's be real, MB is incompetent and that's not going to happen. In a perfect world, I'd also try to turn Pacioretty into another top ten pick (+) and then a LHD. That's a rebuilding move though and I don't think Bergevin is actually considering a rebuild, neither should he be in charge of one.

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10 hours ago, Regis22 said:

And then absolutely destroy the kid

I think Jullien would be fair with the kid. The big difference is coming from Finland they stress the defensive side of the game and help develop that early on. So as long as he is listening and trying to be a complete center I see him doing fine with Jullien. Like Mathews playing against men instead of the Q or OHL prepares you for the NHL a lot better, than just racking up a lot of points against kids 15-16 and because of your point totals not have to worry about the defensive side of the game.

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Timmins did an interview in Dallas where he says

- thinks Quinton Hughes will have trouble adjusting to the NHL in terms of his ability to play defence

- Kotkaniemi is a potential 1C. He is not concerned about his skating, thinks that an ACL injury set him back and that the further the season went on, you could see recovery improved and that skating got better.

 

The more news that comes out, the more it seems like the Habs are zoning in on JK, with a chance of looking at Tkachuk. I put up numbers saying something like JK 60%, BT 25%, Zadina 10%, and Hughes 5% yesterday... The Athletic put out an article today with very similar numbers to mine (almost wondering if they read our posts!). They had JK at 55%, BT at 20%, Zadina at about 14% and then Hughes-Dobson-Bouchard as a group accounting for the rest. Based on TT's interview, unless it's a complete smokescreen, you have to feel Kotkaniemi is the far and away favorite and that Hughes has very little chance of coming here.

Habs hosted Zadina and Svechnikov for dinner tonight. They've already hosted Tkachuk, JK, and Barrett Hayton. Interesting no D men and no Veleno on that list.

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35 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

What would everyone think about trading up to get Svechnikov? I fully expect Carolina to take him. However, can we entice them to drop 1 spot and take Zadina instead? What would it take, I wonder?

At what cost?    Personally, I prefer us sticking to 3 and taking JK.    Trading down to 4 or 5 with assurances of who's getting taken at 3 and 4 if the offer is right so somebody else can take Zedina and Tkachuk ... sure.    But not trading down too far as that's a gamble somebody else decides JK is the BPA.    

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41 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

What would everyone think about trading up to get Svechnikov? I fully expect Carolina to take him. However, can we entice them to drop 1 spot and take Zadina instead? What would it take, I wonder?

I'll answer this with a question: what would you want to move down to 4 or 5? Whatever that is, it's going to take more to move up for a consensus #2 like Svechnikov. Picks 3 to 10 are much more closely bunched.

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2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Timmins did an interview in Dallas where he says

- thinks Quinton Hughes will have trouble adjusting to the NHL in terms of his ability to play defence

- Kotkaniemi is a potential 1C. He is not concerned about his skating, thinks that an ACL injury set him back and that the further the season went on, you could see recovery improved and that skating got better.

 

The more news that comes out, the more it seems like the Habs are zoning in on JK, with a chance of looking at Tkachuk. I put up numbers saying something like JK 60%, BT 25%, Zadina 10%, and Hughes 5% yesterday... The Athletic put out an article today with very similar numbers to mine (almost wondering if they read our posts!). They had JK at 55%, BT at 20%, Zadina at about 14% and then Hughes-Dobson-Bouchard as a group accounting for the rest. Based on TT's interview, unless it's a complete smokescreen, you have to feel Kotkaniemi is the far and away favorite and that Hughes has very little chance of coming here.

Habs hosted Zadina and Svechnikov for dinner tonight. They've already hosted Tkachuk, JK, and Barrett Hayton. Interesting no D men and no Veleno on that list.

Thats very interesting about Hughes.  Id value Timmins' opinion on something like that. 

I think Timmins saying that Kotkaniemi is a "potential 1C" is a very telling quote.  IMHO that makes it extremely likely thats the guy that - Timmins at least - is targeting. Lets hope that MB doesnt step in with the "well, Tkachuk has all that grit" nonsense.

Im surprised they met with Hayton. Not that he's not a great player but there's a good chance he doesnt even make it into the top 10.  Makes you wonder if we're going to move a roster player for another first round pick?  Pacioretty for 11th overall + Leddy?  

 

Right now if i had to bet, Id say that assuming Dahlin goes first (obvious) and Svechnikov goes  second (pretty close to a lock but there's still that Zadina-Necas connection) then you take Kotkaniemi.    If something weird happens and Svech is left, you have to take him, regardless of position. 

 



 

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9 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

I'll answer this with a question: what would you want to move down to 4 or 5? Whatever that is, it's going to take more to move up for a consensus #2 like Svechnikov. Picks 3 to 10 are much more closely bunched.

I thought perhaps something like the 3rd overall (2018), 38th overall (2018, from Chicago), and a prospect would be appropriate. But perhaps that's way off.

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On 6/19/2018 at 9:08 PM, CaptWelly said:

I believe they believe this because he is playing in a league against men. Which is harder and also a league where you learn the defensive side of the game also. The OHL and Q are leagues that are easy to rack up points and look good playing against 15-16 year olds. Julien definitely would want a two way center over just an offensive center as most all NHL coaches. 

 

On 6/19/2018 at 9:36 PM, maas_art said:

Kokaniemi is 17 years old & has been playing against men (and doing pretty well). I think the age thing is the biggest factor - he's made large improvements over the last 6 months while older guys have shown less improvement over that time.  Dahlin is over a  year older than him, Tkachuk, Zadina and most others are nearly a full year older too. Only Svechnikov is close to his age.  

So i think its a combination of being less noticable (since it took him time to adapt in the men's league) and him making big improvements very recently.  I certainly am no scout so I dont know what these guys are looking for, but pretty much every one of them seems to think he's made massive strides in the last 6-8 months so I would think there's something there.

Interesting points. I'm not sure the age difference is much of a factor though, Kotkaneimi was born in July, 2000. Veleno January, 2000 and Hayton June, 2000. Playing with men is something to consider, but it is in Finland. I've heard the competition compares to the AHL, but I have my doubts about that. Still, it's something to consider. I just feel like he is a player with excellent potential, but with some serious risks as well. Concerns with his skating, strength and ability to stay on his skates, combined with the fact that he has already been shifted from center to the wing while playing at the next level make me seriously doubt him a the best center available. He might turn out to be great, but I just don't see how at this point he out ranks either Hayton or Veleno. Again, I don't think we should reach for any of the three with our 3rd overall, but if we do he just seems to me like the riskiest choice of the three. And I'm not of the opinion that we are in the position to be rolling the dice, considering the state of our system.  

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2 hours ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

 

Interesting points. I'm not sure the age difference is much of a factor though, Kotkaneimi was born in July, 2000. Veleno January, 2000 and Hayton June, 2000. Playing with men is something to consider, but it is in Finland. I've heard the competition compares to the AHL, but I have my doubts about that. Still, it's something to consider. I just feel like he is a player with excellent potential, but with some serious risks as well. Concerns with his skating, strength and ability to stay on his skates, combined with the fact that he has already been shifted from center to the wing while playing at the next level make me seriously doubt him a the best center available. He might turn out to be great, but I just don't see how at this point he out ranks either Hayton or Veleno. Again, I don't think we should reach for any of the three with our 3rd overall, but if we do he just seems to me like the riskiest choice of the three. And I'm not of the opinion that we are in the position to be rolling the dice, considering the state of our system.  

Even if you compared the Europeans leagues with the AHL which is probably somewhat close even the KHL isn't the NHL. It is still playing against older stronger players and the AHL is much better competition than the Q or CHL, USHL or development leagues.

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5 hours ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

 

Interesting points. I'm not sure the age difference is much of a factor though, Kotkaneimi was born in July, 2000. Veleno January, 2000 and Hayton June, 2000. Playing with men is something to consider, but it is in Finland. I've heard the competition compares to the AHL, but I have my doubts about that. Still, it's something to consider. I just feel like he is a player with excellent potential, but with some serious risks as well. Concerns with his skating, strength and ability to stay on his skates, combined with the fact that he has already been shifted from center to the wing while playing at the next level make me seriously doubt him a the best center available. He might turn out to be great, but I just don't see how at this point he out ranks either Hayton or Veleno. Again, I don't think we should reach for any of the three with our 3rd overall, but if we do he just seems to me like the riskiest choice of the three. And I'm not of the opinion that we are in the position to be rolling the dice, considering the state of our system.  

Another David Desharnais?

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6 hours ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

Interesting points. I'm not sure the age difference is much of a factor though, Kotkaneimi was born in July, 2000. Veleno January, 2000 and Hayton June, 2000. Playing with men is something to consider, but it is in Finland. I've heard the competition compares to the AHL, but I have my doubts about that.

It 100% is a factor in a men's league. Kotkaniemi was barely 17 at the start of the year and still isn't 18 now. To be playing in a top 6 role in the 4th or 5th best professional league in the world against grown men is quite a feat for a 17 year old. The Finnish league isn't at the AHL level but it's actually quite close, consider that there's only 10 teams and most Finnish players below NHL level will just stay home. 

Rob Vollman compiles a list of leagues ranked by NHL equivalency, he uses historical data of players who transferred from the other leagues to the NHL and how their scoring changed. Finnish league points are roughly worth 0.452 NHL points, and for the AHL its 0.486. Considering how young Kotkaniemi is that's pretty impressive to be playing as a top 6 scorer in what's only a hair below AHL level.

 

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Still, it's something to consider. I just feel like he is a player with excellent potential, but with some serious risks as well. Concerns with his skating, strength and ability to stay on his skates, combined with the fact that he has already been shifted from center to the wing while playing at the next level make me seriously doubt him a the best center available.

I don't think he's really known for being weak on his skates, most reports I've read mention how strong on the puck he is as one of his major strengths actually. He's 6'2 190 and has a lot of room to grow into that frame, and from some highlight videos you can see he does a great job driving the play and protecting the puck in a pro league, so I'd be pretty confident that will translate to the NHL.

I wouldn't worry too much about him not playing C this year either. It's very rare for teenagers to play center in European leagues because the top division isn't intended to be a development league, so a 17 year old is unlikely to be good enough to play center at that level. If he goes another season or two in Finland without playing center I'd be concerned but his Finnish team has reportedly penciled him in at center for next year so he should be back there immediately. The Habs could also sign him to play 1C in the AHL if they felt his development was being hampered.

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He might turn out to be great, but I just don't see how at this point he out ranks either Hayton or Veleno. Again, I don't think we should reach for any of the three with our 3rd overall, but if we do he just seems to me like the riskiest choice of the three. And I'm not of the opinion that we are in the position to be rolling the dice, considering the state of our system.  

The Habs need to take risks, most places project Veleno as an OK middle six center and Hayton is consistently ranked a lot lower than Kotkaniemi. With Poehling, Danault, Ikonen, Evans, and Vejdemo in the system the Habs should be OK at 2C and 3C so I think it's fine to swing for the fences. 

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51 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Certainly should be an exciting day for Habs fans. I'm hoping we see a successful Pacioretty trade. One that we don't lose. 

There's been rumours of a Pacioretty - O'Reilly swap which would be interesting. 

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58 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Certainly should be an exciting day for Habs fans. I'm hoping we see a successful Pacioretty trade. One that we don't lose. 

I wanna see Weber and Price move even more

 

6 minutes ago, Noob616 said:

There's been rumours of a Pacioretty - O'Reilly swap which would be interesting. 

I would LOVE that deal - I'd easily add a second to make it happen, maybe they can give us the 5th we're missing next year

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11 minutes ago, FireHabs said:

Why would we move Price, he is still the best goalie in the league!  Weber I could see.  PAC no our best goal scorer.

because unless we get 2 major pieces (a top center and left pairing d man) without giving up too much, we have no chance of winning. And honestly we probably need 2 centers to really have a chance 

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15 minutes ago, RyderRocks73 said:

Anyone see that the 10th pick is available for a defenceman?

Weber+35th/ RNH+10th

Sign Carlson instead of Tavares this summer and find a better 1-2 punch with RNH.

I actually think you could get more from edmonton for weber.    Weber for 10th overall, RNH and maybe even one more piece from them.  I could see Chiarelli covet Weber more than MB does.  Not only that he (Weber) would actually make a massive difference on their defense. Their group isnt terrible they just lack that one stabilizing force. Add him & everyone moves back. I think they'd be instantly better.

Unfortunately I dont think MB will trade him. I think odds are he's our next captain & I think MB still wont admit he lost that trade meaning Weber is ours as long as MB is GM. 

Love your thinking though. 

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3 hours ago, Noob616 said:

There's been rumours of a Pacioretty - O'Reilly swap which would be interesting. 

Seems to me he may not fit the Habs mold:

On July 13, 2015, Ontario Provincial Police charged O'Reilly with impaired driving following an incident in Lucan, Ontario when the pick up truck he was driving struck a Tim Hortons. O'Reilly was charged with driving a motor vehicle while ability impaired (alcohol) and care or control over 80 mgs. He was also charged under the Highway Traffic Act with failing to remain at the scene. O'Reilly was acquitted of the charges on July 11, 2016.

 

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