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State Of The Habs 2018-19


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1 minute ago, maas_art said:

Why would that increase his trade value? Because you could trade him to another team (while still on the AHL squad) and they could leave him in their system & then call him up & not worry about waivers?   I mean, I guess that is helpful but really if thats an incentive I cant see him having much more value than say a 4th rounder at best. 

I just quoted what this guy said "Andrew Zadarnowski" whoever he is. 

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14 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Why would that increase his trade value? Because you could trade him to another team (while still on the AHL squad) and they could leave him in their system & then call him up & not worry about waivers?   I mean, I guess that is helpful but really if thats an incentive I cant see him having much more value than say a 4th rounder at best. 

This actually happens a lot, last September Vegas waived Calvin Pickard and nobody claimed him for free, but after he cleared waivers they traded a 6th and an AHLer for him because they could use him as an AHL goalie and have him as insurance in case they needed a backup later. Same could happen with McCarron, he's probably not much value if he has to clear waivers but as a guy who can go to the AHL and maybe come up in a different system after adjusting to a new team in the AHL could have some (marginal) value.

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1 hour ago, Noob616 said:

This actually happens a lot, last September Vegas waived Calvin Pickard and nobody claimed him for free, but after he cleared waivers they traded a 6th and an AHLer for him because they could use him as an AHL goalie and have him as insurance in case they needed a backup later. Same could happen with McCarron, he's probably not much value if he has to clear waivers but as a guy who can go to the AHL and maybe come up in a different system after adjusting to a new team in the AHL could have some (marginal) value.

Yeah that makes some sense although i guess it shows just how little value BigMac has nowadays.   Shame, I think Shea Theodore went with the very next pick after him too. Hindsight & all that - although it sounds like he was never Timmins' first choice. 

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

Why would that increase his trade value? Because you could trade him to another team (while still on the AHL squad) and they could leave him in their system & then call him up & not worry about waivers?   I mean, I guess that is helpful but really if thats an incentive I cant see him having much more value than say a 4th rounder at best. 

Given the right personal trainer to help him with his skating issues, he might be a force to be reckoned with IMO.

Or maybe they've exhausted all avenues on this one.

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25 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

no issues with signing Byron here. i have plenty of other issues with this team, but this guy performs night in and night out does a great job and gets his nose dirty if he has to as well. the money is about right for the points he has put up and 4 years is not what i consider to be long term, he is not all that old.

Agreed. Byron puts all of his effort. Although he is 29 there are no other forwards on our team who have more speed than him at the moment.

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9 hours ago, campabee82 said:

How about, Kotkaniemi or Suzuki, or Poeling, or any other number of younger players with the same or better skill set. The problem isn't his value right now the problem is his age at 29 he may have at best 2 or 3 years before his speed starts to wear off then all your left with is a Plekanec type of player trying to keep up with the pace and being realitivly ineffective.

What do any of the above players have to do with the Byron Signing. He is getting a mere 3.4 million. That's chicken feed. Right now other then price we dont have one player who could create any damage to our team cap. I don't think we have to worry about that for the next 5 years at least.

You dont pay players because they have a great skill set you pay players because they prove they can play the game well. 

4 years is nothing, he is only 33 then when the contract ends, at 3.4 million you can probably trade him  when ever you want.

Would you take Eller at 3.5 million for the next 4 years.... I would similiar numbers and  same age. 

Would you take Subban at 9 million for the next  4 plus years.....I would same age.

I get all the things Bergevin does wrong this is not one of the but the two players mentioned are :(

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5 minutes ago, Habs=stanleycup said:

Agreed. Byron puts all of his effort. Although he is 29 there are no other forwards on our team who have more speed than him at the moment.

After looking at his stats strictly with the Habs, I think he is more valuable than some of us think. He can play up and down the lines. 

In the 3 years playing here, he has averaged:

225 GP, out of 230.

96 PTs.

+8

2 PPG, and 5 shorties.

261 SOG, shooting % is 20.3%

114 BLKS, and 368 Hits.

108 TKS, and 73 GVA

Corsi For, Av, 51.3 

All the while playing roughly 15 Mins. per game.

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4 minutes ago, caperns61 said:

What do any of the above players have to do with the Byron Signing. He is getting a mere 3.4 million. That's chicken feed. Right now other then price we dont have one player who could create any damage to our team cap. I don't think we have to worry about that for the next 5 years at least.

You dont pay players because they have a great skill set you pay players because they prove they can play the game well. 

4 years is nothing, he is only 33 then when the contract ends, at 3.4 million you can probably trade him  when ever you want.

Would you take Eller at 3.5 million for the next 4 years.... I would similiar numbers and  same age. 

Would you take Subban at 9 million for the next  4 plus years.....I would same age.

I get all the things Bergevin does wrong this is not one of the but the two players mentioned are :(

FWIW its a 4 year extension - meaning it starts after this year - so he is actually 30 when the extension kicks in. Thats only a year different but worth pointing out. 

 

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Just now, maas_art said:

FWIW its a 4 year extension - meaning it starts after this year - so he is actually 30 when the extension kicks in. Thats only a year different but worth pointing out. 

 

Really does not matter at all, 3.4 million for a 20 goal scorer who plays well in all 3 zones and drives possesion is a bargain, 4 years starting next year or a 5 year starting this year I still consider it a good deal.  Add to the fact it doesn't matter who he plays with or where he plays in the lineup he just plays a really good game for a bargain price

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I look at Byron and I just wonder how long he's going to keep up his current production. Here are a few factors to keep in mind:

1. Byron's game is based on speed. If he loses his skating, he's going to have a lot of trouble keeping up, and speed usually takes a downturn after players hit 30. So I worry about how he's going to age over the next 5 years.

2. Byron's had an abnormally high shooting percentage. Yes, he's been able to sustain that the past two years, but we're talking about a guy who gets very few shots relative to most players. He's simply taking good-quality shots, and he gets a lot of quality because his speed gives him those chances. I wonder again how long that lasts. Because he doesn't shoot a lot, he's really relying on a high shooting percentage to maintain production, so a little bad luck (like Lehkonen or Hudon had last year for example) and his numbers drop off drastically. This isn't like Pacioretty, who shoots 300 times a year and can afford to see his % drop a bit. If Byron's shooting percentage drops to league average, he'll likely see his goal totals drop to 10-12 per season.

3. Byron has been remarkably healthy the past two years. He's missed one game, so sure, his absolute numbers are pretty good, but if with age (and he already had an off-season injury to deal with) his health drops off, he's not scoring 20 goals a year. He may have been putting up 20 goals a season, but he's doing that in a full 80+ games. His production per ice time was inferior to Gallagher, Galchenyuk, Danault, Pacioretty, Carr, Drouin, and Hudon last year.

So look, Byron's a good player. He's got top-tier speed and decent finish, and he's a useful 3rd line player. I don't think anyone's mistaking him for a top 6 player despite his 20-goal seasons. It's not that I don't want him on the team, it's that it just makes little sense to offer role players like this long-term deals while you shaft your true stars over and over. There just isn't much need to do this. I fully believe Hudon and Lehkonen can give us 20 goals a year. I think Scherbak has a chance to do even more than that if he isn't run out of town first. You have Suzuki and JK and and Poehling and Ylonen and Ikonen and Olofsson and so on who will be pushing up the ranks in the next couple of years, and absolutely, many of them won't pan out. But I'll bet we find a few guys in that group who are bona fide NHLers and who can score 20 goals or better and do it for cheaper than Byron and do it with less of a downspin in their production. I just don't see the need to lock up a roster spot for the next 5 years with a mid-level player like Byron. I get locking up a Drouin or a Mete or a Juulsen or a Lehkonen or even a Domi. Lock up guys who are young and where you get them through their prime and where you gamble a little bit that they're going to improve. Don't lock up guys long-term who are already headed into the years where historically players' production drops off, especially when they're not part of your true core. You could have re-signed him for 2 years or if he didn't want that, you could have traded him, and he likely would have been very replaceable over the next few years.

 

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13 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

I don't think anyone's mistaking him for a top 6 player despite his 20-goal seasons.

 

I mean, he is one. By the simplest definition, there's 186 top 6 forwards in the NHL and he's 146th in points over the past two seasons and In goals he's 79th. That's not a 3rd liner by the most simple measures, and his goal scoring puts him inside the top 90 (as in first line) forwards in the league. His even strength scoring is also particularly valuable (2nd on the team behind Gallagher, and 41st in the league overall). I'm not calling him a star but he's not a 3rd line guy playing above his role, he's a strong 2nd line and borderline 1st line scorer at even strength. 

13 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

3. Byron has been remarkably healthy the past two years. He's missed one game, so sure, his absolute numbers are pretty good, but if with age (and he already had an off-season injury to deal with) his health drops off, he's not scoring 20 goals a year. He may have been putting up 20 goals a season, but he's doing that in a full 80+ games. His production per ice time was inferior to Gallagher, Galchenyuk, Danault, Pacioretty, Carr, Drouin, and Hudon last year.

 

In all situations. At even strength, Corsica has Byron as 2nd behind Gallagher in primary points per 60 mins and 3rd behind Gallagher and Carr in raw P/60 (excluding Rychel since he only had 40 minutes of ice time). I'm not really that interested in comparing raw P/60 since it's basically just a measurement of who got the most PP time, and most of those guys had significantly more PP time than Byron last year. Byron had 92 mins, Hudon 108, Lehkonen 127, Gallagher 200, Galchenyuk 240, and Drouin 252, while Carr had about the same and only Danault got less PP time. 

This stuff is all an opportunity cost, if you don't have a guy like Paul Byron to drive the play and score at even strength maybe the coach doesn't feel comfortable loading up PP1 with Domi, Drouin, Tatar, and Hudon which would basically put two separate lines out of commission for the shift after the PP against the opponent's top lines (who were resting on the PK). If you don't have Byron to fill minutes on the PK then maybe the coach has to use Hudon there which means he's not available for the PP at times. There's a whole lot of guys who can put up respectable raw point totals with lots of PP time, and not all that many guys that can score 20 goals with limited PP time while contributing on the PK and on a defensive matchup line.   

13 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

You have Suzuki and JK and and Poehling and Ylonen and Ikonen and Olofsson and so on who will be pushing up the ranks in the next couple of years, and absolutely, many of them won't pan out. But I'll bet we find a few guys in that group who are bona fide NHLers and who can score 20 goals or better and do it for cheaper than Byron and do it with less of a downspin in their production. I just don't see the need to lock up a roster spot for the next 5 years with a mid-level player like Byron.

1

So we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. Gallagher didn't need a spot opened up for him, he took the spot out of camp as a rookie. Mete beat out Schelmko, Morrow, Benn, Alzner, Streit, Gelinas, Jerabek, and Davidson to win a spot on the first pair. Hudon and Lehkonen both took their spots out of camp in a team with lots of veterans as well. Kotkaniemi looks like he's about to win at least a 9 game tryout and maybe more. Juulsen is about to make the team. There will be injuries, Shaw is one injury away from permanent LTIR, Plekanec is gone after this year, Deslauriers is whatever, Armia may or may not be in their long term plans, Tatar could easily be flipped at the deadline this year or next year, there will be spots available for these guys. 

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9 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

Well i think in a year or two we will finally be in good shape at center. then we just have to overhaul our D by which time our centers will be old................ and so on 

Haha.  This is pretty much Marc Bergevin's tenure to a T.  

Need more leadership & a goal-scorer from the blueline so we trade one top pairing dman for another top pairing dman.  Need a young first line prospect so we trade our top LD prospect to get him.   Cut off a foot, to buy a hand.   Its like he can only focus on one thing at a time.

I honestly think that if we somehow manage a successful rebuild, it will be in spite of Marc Bergevin, not because of him. 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Bergevin says on tv tonight that there's a good chance we will have a captain this season.

Im putting money on Weber.   MB went out and got him and its still the most high profile trade he's made.  When asked if he would consider trading SW because of the rebuild MB basically said no.   So i think Weber is here as long as MB is and that means he'll most likely be the next captain. 

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To rehash the Byron thing, I'm not sure people realize (I certainly didn't) what player salaries are actually at these days. Byron's 3.4M would be the 171st highest forward contract in the league, just higher than Sven Baertschi at 3.36M, and just below Sobotka/Eller at 3.5M. I think even the most pessimistic person about Byron's aging curve would have a hard time arguing he's worse than the 171st best non-ELC forward in the league....

 

Byron's 3.4M today under an 82M cap is about equivalent to a 1.6M contract under the initial 39M salary cap. 

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I'm mildly intrigued and will definitely catch a game here and there now that Kotkaniemi starts the season in Montreal, and I'm also looking forward to seeing more of Domi, Armia, Scherbak, and Tatar. I still don't think this team is anything special though. If everything goes right (read: Carey plays the way he can), we're a bubble team at best IMO. The offense has potential while our D is still terrible, which isn't exactly a recipe for success. Still, we finally seem to be trending in the right direction, rebuilding that defense will certainly take some time though.

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48 minutes ago, ChiLla said:

I'm mildly intrigued and will definitely catch a game here and there now that Kotkaniemi starts the season in Montreal, and I'm also looking forward to seeing more of Domi, Armia, Scherbak, and Tatar. I still don't think this team is anything special though. If everything goes right (read: Carey plays the way he can), we're a bubble team at best IMO. The offense has potential while our D is still terrible, which isn't exactly a recipe for success. Still, we finally seem to be trending in the right direction, rebuilding that defense will certainly take some time though.

I agree with most of what you're saying but the one caveat is the bold.  Our defense is absymal if BeenAlznerSchlmeko get playing time & minutes.   I know its only preseason but the deployment from the new coaching staff seems to imply we might see less of them & more of Petry, Mete, Juulsen and Rielly.   This is not a world-beater defense by any stretch but add Weber in a couple of months and its serviceable.  It should be enough, if Carey is playing as Carey MVP Price to win some games. I think the addition of Ducharme and Richardson will help our defense a lot - if only because of deployment.

like you, i still think we're a bubble team at best - and Id feel a lot better about our future with one or 2 top end defense prospects - but I think this team is finally on the right track.

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4 minutes ago, Habs=stanleycup said:

Canadiens acquire defenseman Brett Kulak from Calgary

Defensemen Matt Taormina and Rinat Valiev dealt to the Flames.

Interesting.  Id call that an upgrade (Kulak over Valiev) and I think all 3 players have cleared waivers so...   

 

It sounds like this was a move to allow Fleury to make the Laval roster (moving 2 for 1, opening up a spot) but its a shame for the Laval fans to lose Taormina who was a bonefide AHL star & put fans in the seats.   

Not sure if Kulak will get a shot with the club at any point but if injuries happen he's a better call up than Valiev I think. 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Interesting.  Id call that an upgrade (Kulak over Valiev) and I think all 3 players have cleared waivers so...   

 

It sounds like this was a move to allow Fleury to make the Laval roster (moving 2 for 1, opening up a spot) but its a shame for the Laval fans to lose Taormina who was a bonefide AHL star & put fans in the seats.   

Not sure if Kulak will get a shot with the club at any point but if injuries happen he's a better call up than Valiev I think. 

 

 

Is Fleury signed to an entry-level contract yet?

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