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State Of The Habs 2018-19


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6 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

I'd rather we didn't make the playoffs versus finishing in the bottom WC spot and getting rolled over by TB in 4.

Valid point but my heart is still hoping for some meaningful playoff hockey ;)

I don't really watch once we're out, maybe a bit of the finals but that's usually it.

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9 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

if we'd beat ANA/SJ that's 83 pts and being 2 up on Carolina, 4 up on CBJ and sitting in the top WC spot looking at Washington in first round ... instead, we're just outside and looking at barely squeaking in to get annihilated by Tampa

that is all based on the assumption that neither Columbus or Carolina lose ONE more game than us IF Carolina or Columbus go on a losing streak of more than 2 games which looking at thier schedules is a solid possibility then we could end up in the top WC spot. Looking at the schedules for all 3 teams Montreal, Carolina and Columbus this is how I break down their Winable games

Montreal - Det, NYI, Chi, Phi, NYI, Buf, Car, Flo and Colu, plus any of the last 4 games providing they rest players = 9 + 1-4

Carolina - Col, Colu, Buf, Mon, Phi, NYI and Phi + Toronto and Pittsburgh providing they rest players = 7 + 1-2

Columbus - NYI, Car, Edm, Van, NYI, Mon, Buf, NYR and Ott - + the Bruins providing they rest players = 9 + Boston

looking at that projection we make 1st wildcard however this is hockey and any team can beat any other team so its just a projection.

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Montreal was fourth overall in the East at the All-Star break and before they headed to California, the nerds at sportsclubstats.com had the Canadiens with a better than 75 per cent chance  of making the playoffs. That number is now 44.1 per cent, the lowest of the four contenders. Pittsburgh is at 94.2 per cent, Carolina is at 88.7 and Columbus is at 68.1 per cent.

The projections are based on such factors as positive momentum, strength of schedule and whether the remaining  games are at home or on the road. Those factors suggest Columbus and Montreal face the toughest challenges.

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5 minutes ago, kinot-2 said:

Montreal was fourth overall in the East at the All-Star break and before they headed to California, the nerds at sportsclubstats.com had the Canadiens with a better than 75 per cent chance  of making the playoffs. That number is now 44.1 per cent, the lowest of the four contenders. Pittsburgh is at 94.2 per cent, Carolina is at 88.7 and Columbus is at 68.1 per cent.

The projections are based on such factors as positive momentum, strength of schedule and whether the remaining  games are at home or on the road. Those factors suggest Columbus and Montreal face the toughest challenges.

I still think we will make the playoffs but the next few games are crucial. If we dont get the momentum rolling in our favour, its going to be a nearly impossible uphill battle.   String together some wins & this could change in a hurry. 

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38 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

that is all based on the assumption that neither Columbus or Carolina lose ONE more game than us IF Carolina or Columbus go on a losing streak of more than 2 games which looking at thier schedules is a solid possibility then we could end up in the top WC spot. Looking at the schedules for all 3 teams Montreal, Carolina and Columbus this is how I break down their Winable games

Montreal - Det, NYI, Chi, Phi, NYI, Buf, Car, Flo and Colu, plus any of the last 4 games providing they rest players = 9 + 1-4

Carolina - Col, Colu, Buf, Mon, Phi, NYI and Phi + Toronto and Pittsburgh providing they rest players = 7 + 1-2

Columbus - NYI, Car, Edm, Van, NYI, Mon, Buf, NYR and Ott - + the Bruins providing they rest players = 9 + Boston

looking at that projection we make 1st wildcard however this is hockey and any team can beat any other team so its just a projection.

Montreal is not making the 1st wildcard.      Lets speculate Wins vs teams below you, Losses vs teams above.

 

MTL  79 pts, 13 games left :

     DET (W), NYI (L), CHI (W), PHI (W), NYI (L), BUF (W), CAR (L), FLO (W), CBJ (W), WIN (L), TBL (L), WSH (L), TOR (L) .. 

     6-7 down the stretch, 91 pts final

 

CBJ  79 pts. 14 games left

     NYI (L), BOS (L), CAR(L), BOS(L), CAL(L), EDM(W), VAN(W), NYI(L), MTL(L), NSH (L) BUF(W), BOS(L), NYR(W), OTT(W)

    5-9 down stretch, 89pts 

CAR. 81 pts 14 games left

    COL(W), CBJ(W), BUF(W), PIT(L), TBL(L), MIN(W), MTL(W), WSH(L), WSH(L), PHI(W), PIT(L), TOR(L), NJD(W), PHI(W)

    8-6 down stretch, 97pts

Carolina will definitely finsih in top WC spot, at best Habs squeek past CBJ into the bottom WC spot.   But given how we've played over the last 5-6 games and that CBJ seem to be picking it up ... I think we got something like 5W 8L down stretch and CBJ goes 7-7 and we're out.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

Failing to beat Anaheim was the death blow in my opinion

Add the New Jersey loss and the blown 3-0 lead against Toronto and there’s a trifecta of coffin nails. 

I hope they can turn it around, though. 

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47 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

If I counted right ...

Carolina 6-2 in last 8

CBJ 4-4 in last eiight

Habs 3-5 ... 

We're trending down, the other 2 are tending up

Fortunately for the the Habs, they're not playing "twitter".  :P

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On 3/10/2019 at 4:40 PM, BigTed3 said:

I judge Galchenyuk to be a sniper based on the quality of his shot, and you can read in the media who go to Habs practices and games how they too have talked about AG's shot being missing on the PP this season.

If you do look at numbers, you would see that AG has a 12.3% shooting percentage for his career. Pacioretty is at 11.2%. Max gets more ice time and a bit more PP time than AG per game, and he certainly got better linemates. I don't think it's fair to say AG isn't a sniper just because he didn't put up 30 goals a year every year. Agreed with you that MP was a better scorer than AG. Agreed with you he was a more complete player. But AG had just as dangerous a shot with somewhat less opportunity to use it. I don't think that takes away from the fact he had a great shot and that we are missing that from this year's PP.

Lots of players have great shots but again it does not make then a great sniper. If your not putting the puck in the back of the net you will never be considered a sniper no matter how good your shot. Snipers know where to find those scoring areas of the ice. They also can score from all areas of the ice 

Patches generates over 3.25 shots per game - Galchenyk only 2.1 shots per game.

And shooting % does not mean your a sniper,  some players over 400 games,

 Adam Enrique 16.1% , Valtteri Filppula 14.9 %, Bryan Little  14.3 %, Artem Anisimov 14.4% -- these are in the top ten since 2013 certainly not snipers ...

Tyler Sequin 11.4%, Phil Kessel 10.9%,Nathan MCkinnon 9.9%   These are snipers even though they have a lower percentage.

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1 minute ago, caperns61 said:

Lots of players have great shots but again it does not make then a great sniper. If your not putting the puck in the back of the net you will never be considered a sniper no matter how good your shot. Snipers know where to find those scoring areas of the ice. They also can score from all areas of the ice 

Patches generates over 3.25 shots per game - Galchenyk only 2.1 shots per game.

And shooting % does not mean your a sniper,  some players over 400 games,

 Adam Enrique 16.1% , Valtteri Filppula 14.9 %, Bryan Little  14.3 %, Artem Anisimov 14.4% -- these are in the top ten since 2013 certainly not snipers ...

Tyler Sequin 11.4%, Phil Kessel 10.9%,Nathan MCkinnon 9.9%   These are snipers even though they have a lower percentage.

Sniper doesn't mean elite player. You can be a middle 6 winger and still be a sniper. Its clear to me that without chucky or pacioretty, we are missing that. I still love the trades we made but its something we are lacking

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Look at the Habs in the past month and their games included:

- Loss to non-playoff team Florida

- Blown 3 goal lead to Toronto

- Loss to non-playoff team NJ

- Blown out by Pens at home

- Blown effort against SJ because Niemi stunk

- Blown out by non-playoff team Anaheim

- Blown effort against NYI by Price because the rest of the team stunk

 

4-6 in their last 10, and the only wins they managed were against Det x 2, LA, and NYR, three of the worst teams in the league. They haven't beat a playoff team since Feb 19 if you count Clb as a fringe playoff team or else going back to Feb 9 against Tor. This team has been sad and under-performing for almost a month and the blame can be put squarely on the shoulders of a handful of players... Weber has been abysmal, maybe from injury. Petry's play has dropped off considerably, which may have something to do with the fact the coaches have taken Reilly away and instead put him next to a rotating cast of Benn, Folin, Kulak, etc. Drouin has been a no-show on most nights. And while not terrible, Domi, Tatar, and Kotkaniemi are not playing at the same pace they were playing at for the first half of the year. This does not in the least look like a playoff team right now and even if they were to squeak in, they don't look like they can beat any of the top 6 teams in the East right now anyways.

 

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You listen to the comments tonight, and it sounds like the room is divided or that at the very least there are scapegoats being called out. What do we know about friends on the team...

- We've seen tons of videos of Gallagher, Domi, Shaw, and Tatar as being friends. They sit together on flights, they post pictures hanging out together. Danault also seems to be friends with Shaw and in some of these outings as well, and we know Shaw and Byron get along too.

- We know Price and Weber like each other.

- We know Kotkaniemi said he sees Armia as a big brother figure on the team, and he's good friends with Mete. And maybe we tack Lehkonen and Niemi onto the group of Finns as well.

So who seem to be the odd men? Well the new guys like Weal, Thompson, Weise, and Folin are unknowns. Even though they're role players, lets keep in mind the team chemistry seemed to be pretty good to start the year, and now you have a ton of newcomers walking in the door. Weise in particular makes you wonder, because he and Subban have both admitted they were good friends and Gallagher has shown that he disliked Subban. So is there friction there? Drouin sticks out like a sore thumb as one of the top-tier players who doesn't really fit in a clique. And not sure where guys like Benn, Petry, Kulak, Reilly, Deslauriers fit in either. Hard to see someone thinking Deslauriers is the problem though, when he hasn't played much in the last while. In any case, wouldn't be surprised if those first 6 guys I mentioned see themselves as the de facto leadership group of guys who compete regularly and that they're holding something against others. I also wonder whether guys like Shaw and Gallagher and Domi are kind of usurping Weber as the vocal leaders of the team and maybe Shea has taken a back seat, which might be annoying others. Lots of theories and who knows, but sounds like something is an issue.

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I love my team and I love the people on Tsn 690 for the shout out. Without going to detail, we've had some bad news this week concerning my wife's health. Putting things into perspective in what's important in life. Just when you think it's only a hockey game.... just WOW.

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10 minutes ago, habby67 said:

I love my team and I love the people on Tsn 690 for the shout out. Without going to detail, we've had some bad news this week concerning my wife's health. Putting things into perspective in what's important in life. Just when you think it's only a hockey game.... just WOW.

Sorry to hear that, sending positive thoughts your way for your wife.

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11 minutes ago, habby67 said:

I love my team and I love the people on Tsn 690 for the shout out. Without going to detail, we've had some bad news this week concerning my wife's health. Putting things into perspective in what's important in life. Just when you think it's only a hockey game.... just WOW.

Love you, brother, let us know if there is anything we can do. Let your wife know we're rooting for her too

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2 hours ago, habsisme said:

Love you, brother, let us know if there is anything we can do. Let your wife know we're rooting for her too

^^^^ This, we're here for you, 67. I'm sure your wife and you have the support of all of us members. Our thoughts are with you. 

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11 hours ago, habby67 said:

I love my team and I love the people on Tsn 690 for the shout out. Without going to detail, we've had some bad news this week concerning my wife's health. Putting things into perspective in what's important in life. Just when you think it's only a hockey game.... just WOW.

I’m very sorry to hear this 67. Prayers and love to you and your wife and family during this difficult time and always brother.

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15 hours ago, habby67 said:

I love my team and I love the people on Tsn 690 for the shout out. Without going to detail, we've had some bad news this week concerning my wife's health. Putting things into perspective in what's important in life. Just when you think it's only a hockey game.... just WOW.

Yes indeed. Hockey is just a game & sending best wishes to your wife & you.  

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