H_T_L

2018-19 If I were GM

459 posts in this topic

Just now, BigTed3 said:

 I think we'd have to add more to dump Alzner without taking back a problem contract too (albeit maybe we could take back a shorter-term bad contract).

Thats the other thing i was thinking. If we found a cheap owner (ie Melnyk) and took a contract that is say bad for 2 years we can press-box or waive the player if he's of no use. We will have the cap space for at least 2 years.  The one appealing thing about Alzner is that while his cap hit remains at $4.6 his actual salary drops to $3m in a couple of years so a cheap owner may well find that appealing, especially if we take on a big contract for 1 - 2 years.

Im not really a fan of buyouts because of how long they take to pay back but if timed correctly (like your proposal) may well be an option.

Do you think MB will try waiving him? 

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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

Alzner + Scherbak

 

for

A solid defensive prospect

There's obviously a risk because Scherbak could still be a top line player, but with our glut of wingers, will he get the chance in our organization?  It would need to be to a team that wants young players, has cap room and has a lack of depth on defense (so that Karl Alzner would actually get playing time, albeit probably 3rd pair).   Arizona maybe?  

Would you do it?  

Without hesitation, as long as the prospect plays the left side and simply because our defence needs a major upgrade. Acquiring wingers is way easier than getting your hands on a legit defensive prospect with top 4 upside. I still like Scherbak but at this point all he brings is potential. His numbers so far are underwhelming and while the talent is clearly there, he needs to start producing at some point. On the other hand, Alzner has probably negative value given his salary, so it may be difficult to get that prospect we'd want for the package you're suggesting.

Edited by ChiLla
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40 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Thats the other thing i was thinking. If we found a cheap owner (ie Melnyk) and took a contract that is say bad for 2 years we can press-box or waive the player if he's of no use. We will have the cap space for at least 2 years.  The one appealing thing about Alzner is that while his cap hit remains at $4.6 his actual salary drops to $3m in a couple of years so a cheap owner may well find that appealing, especially if we take on a big contract for 1 - 2 years.

Im not really a fan of buyouts because of how long they take to pay back but if timed correctly (like your proposal) may well be an option.

Do you think MB will try waiving him? 

So my thought on the whole situation is this if we could find a trading partner on the cusp of the playoff picture in need of a solid 3rd pairing defenseman with cap room to spare someone like maybe the Avs then we could send Alzner there for an unproven but possibly nhl ready dman like Timmins or Makar knowing that Timmins is hurt may devalue him a bit. But the Avs may see it as a steal of a experienced defender for their playoff push.

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52 minutes ago, ChiLla said:

Without hesitation, as long as the prospect plays the left side and simply because our defence needs a major upgrade. Acquiring wingers is way easier than getting your hands on a legit defensive prospect with top 4 upside. I still like Scherbak but at this point all he brings is potential. His numbers so far are underwhelming and while the talent is clearly there, he needs to start producing at some point. On the other hand, Alzner has probably negative value given his salary, so it may be difficult to get that prospect we'd want for the package you're suggesting.

yeah Alzner + Scherbak may only get you a pick to be honest.  Scherbak has value, I am pretty sure, but like you said, Alzner is probably negative value for just about any GM at this point.   Even a guy like Bobby Ryan has more value because while he's got a ridiculous contract, he is still a decent mid-level contributor. 

48 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

So my thought on the whole situation is this if we could find a trading partner on the cusp of the playoff picture in need of a solid 3rd pairing defenseman with cap room to spare someone like maybe the Avs then we could send Alzner there for an unproven but possibly nhl ready dman like Timmins or Makar knowing that Timmins is hurt may devalue him a bit. But the Avs may see it as a steal of a experienced defender for their playoff push.

IMHO the only hope we have is to try to convince a rival GM that Alzner is still capable of being a 3rd pairing/1st unit PK specialist.  Even then you're not getting value for him but may be able to unload him for something.   

Retaining part of his salary would be better than a buyout. 

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20 minutes ago, maas_art said:



Retaining part of his salary would be better than a buyout. 

We may have to retain 100% and give them a pick just to have him on their roster.:ph34r:

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37 minutes ago, maas_art said:

yeah Alzner + Scherbak may only get you a pick to be honest.  Scherbak has value, I am pretty sure, but like you said, Alzner is probably negative value for just about any GM at this point.   Even a guy like Bobby Ryan has more value because while he's got a ridiculous contract, he is still a decent mid-level contributor. 

IMHO the only hope we have is to try to convince a rival GM that Alzner is still capable of being a 3rd pairing/1st unit PK specialist.  Even then you're not getting value for him but may be able to unload him for something.   

Retaining part of his salary would be better than a buyout. 

I agree. Would not buy him out. If you retain half his salary he probably does have some value. I also think he will crack the lineup and may even surprise some people. Not enough to be worth the money he's making but enough to be a very good 4-5 d man. 

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45 minutes ago, maas_art said:

yeah Alzner + Scherbak may only get you a pick to be honest.  Scherbak has value, I am pretty sure, but like you said, Alzner is probably negative value for just about any GM at this point.   Even a guy like Bobby Ryan has more value because while he's got a ridiculous contract, he is still a decent mid-level contributor. 

IMHO the only hope we have is to try to convince a rival GM that Alzner is still capable of being a 3rd pairing/1st unit PK specialist.  Even then you're not getting value for him but may be able to unload him for something.   

Retaining part of his salary would be better than a buyout. 

Well that just depends on how much salary you have to retain... is it better to have one year of a 4M cap hit and 5 years of about 1M or is it better to retain 50% and pay 2.3M for 3-4 years in addition to maybe having to give something else up as an asset in a trade just to make it happen? I'd personally prefer the buyout.

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3 hours ago, maas_art said:


Retaining part of his salary would be better than a buyout. 

That's what I was thinking but I wonder if keeping him until the trade deadline(unless a good offer materialized sooner) might minimize the salary retention if a team was desperate for a D-man.

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6 hours ago, maas_art said:

IMHO the only hope we have is to try to convince a rival GM that Alzner is still capable of being a 3rd pairing/1st unit PK specialist.  Even then you're not getting value for him but may be able to unload him for something.   

Retaining part of his salary would be better than a buyout. 

Thats kind of what I was thinking when I said to try and find a trading partner like the Avs and trade for someone like Timmins who may have a lower value cause of his injury. Obviously the Avs have a decent top 4 but they could use a 5 or 6 dman/PK specialist. And I would absolutely offer to retain at least 10 percent of his salary more of required. Even if Timmins doesn't work out we would be rid of Alzner and at least most of his contract.

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What about the Oilers? Some still think they need help there.

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This team has shown that they have an abundance of quality NHLers. What they lack is game-breaking talent.   I wonder if there's a way to grab Nylander who apparently is still miles apart from Toronto in contract negotiations.   The longer he sits, the more they see they dont need him.

So what can we offer? Well, the most enticing piece is Weber but as the newly minted captain its clear he isnt going anywhere.   So what about our other right-shooting offensive defensman?    Obviously Petry alone wouldnt be enough but possibly Petry + Forward?  Its probably dreaming to think we could sneak alzer in, even with $$ retained but maybe they are desperate enough.  He's better than a couple of their regulars if they are prepared to play him down the lineup. I just dont think they can afford to do so.

I know its very rare for the Habs/Leafs to trade but it has happened.  As a team that is an absolute beast up front but quite poor on the blueline, maybe there's a deal to be had there.   They are also firmly within their window while we are a few years away.   It would hurt to lose Petry in the short term but he'll almost certainly be in decline when our window is finally here.

Petry + Scherbak 

for

Nylander 

 

Would you do it? Would the leafs? 

 

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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

This team has shown that they have an abundance of quality NHLers. What they lack is game-breaking talent.   I wonder if there's a way to grab Nylander who apparently is still miles apart from Toronto in contract negotiations.   The longer he sits, the more they see they dont need him.

So what can we offer? Well, the most enticing piece is Weber but as the newly minted captain its clear he isnt going anywhere.   So what about our other right-shooting offensive defensman?    Obviously Petry alone wouldnt be enough but possibly Petry + Forward?  Its probably dreaming to think we could sneak alzer in, even with $$ retained but maybe they are desperate enough.  He's better than a couple of their regulars if they are prepared to play him down the lineup. I just dont think they can afford to do so.

I know its very rare for the Habs/Leafs to trade but it has happened.  As a team that is an absolute beast up front but quite poor on the blueline, maybe there's a deal to be had there.   They are also firmly within their window while we are a few years away.   It would hurt to lose Petry in the short term but he'll almost certainly be in decline when our window is finally here.

Petry + Scherbak 

for

Nylander 

 

Would you do it? Would the leafs? 

 

With the way ouelettehas been playingI might try Ouelette, Scherbak, Alzner for Nylander first then when and if they say no counter with Perry, Scherbak who knows maybe they are desperate enough on the back end to take the first deal doubtful but maybe

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I really don't think we have anything to offer the Laughs for Nylander.    Petry maybe, but I think his age would make them balk.   

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3 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

I really don't think we have anything to offer the Laughs for Nylander.    Petry maybe, but I think his age would make them balk.   

Except that their window is now - if they wait even a year or 2 they are throwing away the possibility of winning with this roster.   Tavares, Marleau & Kadri = $23m and that's without Matthews, Marner, Kapanen or Nylander on big contracts.   The chances of them being able to afford all of their top players in say 3 years, are slim. They need to think about legitimately contending NOW.  So while Petry may only have 2 more prime years, i think they would consider it heavily.    Petry-Rielly is a legitimate top pairing & everyone moves down the lineup after that.  

 

For us, it woudl sting to lose Petry (especially until Weber is back) but Weber - Juulsen - Benn on the RD isnt horrendous and Brook is possibly our best D prospect and a RHD.

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6 hours ago, maas_art said:

This team has shown that they have an abundance of quality NHLers. What they lack is game-breaking talent.   I wonder if there's a way to grab Nylander who apparently is still miles apart from Toronto in contract negotiations.   The longer he sits, the more they see they dont need him.

So what can we offer? Well, the most enticing piece is Weber but as the newly minted captain its clear he isnt going anywhere.   So what about our other right-shooting offensive defensman?    Obviously Petry alone wouldnt be enough but possibly Petry + Forward?  Its probably dreaming to think we could sneak alzer in, even with $$ retained but maybe they are desperate enough.  He's better than a couple of their regulars if they are prepared to play him down the lineup. I just dont think they can afford to do so.

I know its very rare for the Habs/Leafs to trade but it has happened.  As a team that is an absolute beast up front but quite poor on the blueline, maybe there's a deal to be had there.   They are also firmly within their window while we are a few years away.   It would hurt to lose Petry in the short term but he'll almost certainly be in decline when our window is finally here.

Petry + Scherbak 

for

Nylander 

 

Would you do it? Would the leafs? 

 

And pay Nylander the 8 million a year he's looking for?

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1 hour ago, habs1952 said:

And pay Nylander the 8 million a year he's looking for?

actually most reports think $6.5-7m will do it

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19 minutes ago, maas_art said:

actually most reports think $6.5-7m will do it

Most reports also say that that is the Leafs range as well and they are still unable to sign him which suggests his range is actually north of 7.5

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9 hours ago, habs1952 said:

And pay Nylander the 8 million a year he's looking for?

 

8 hours ago, maas_art said:

actually most reports think $6.5-7m will do it

I actually heard the same thing as 52... that Nylander's initial ask was to get a Leon Draisaitl type deal and that he's not willing to come down below 8M, which is what the Leafs have balked at.

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14 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

I really don't think we have anything to offer the Laughs for Nylander.    Petry maybe, but I think his age would make them balk.   

How about Jonathan Drouin and a d-man (Alzner would be great but I don't think the Leafs would want him)

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The Leafs need a top pairing D man, preferably on the right. They have boatloads of offence and if anything, the start to the season has shown them they don't really need Nylander up front, especially at 8M a season.

In the off-season, I proposed Nylander plus another piece for Weber and I think if Weber comes back and has a decent start, he's exactly what Babcock and company would covet. The Leafs' D remains one of the worst in the league defensively and they would welcome a veteran presence like Weber, in addition to his fitting their needs for a right-handed big shot defenceman too. I think he's a great fit there if he can prove he's healthy. Maybe they'd look at Petry too, who might in fact be more of a Kyle Dubas type of player, but I think we'd have to add to that to get Nylander. The Leafs aren't going to want to give up over 4M in cap space to take on Alzner in a year where they can go after the Cup. He's not a fit there, even if we offer something else too. They may as well pay Nylander if that's the case. So I could see something like

Weber for Nylander and a 2nd

or

Petry and Scherbak for Nylander

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All that being said, the Habs' priorities may have changed in the past 2-3 months. With Kotkaniemi seemingly being ahead of the curve and the acquisition of Suzuki as part of the Pacioretty trade, the Habs may have 2-3 guys who can move into the top 6 center roles in the next 2-3 years (factoring in Poehling and Domi, if he stays at center). So yes, Nylander would be a great add down the middle, but the bigger need has probably become left defence. On the right side, you have Weber, Petry, Juulsen (who already looks like a 2nd-pairing guy and might still improve) and potentially Brook. But on the left, you have Mete and then Reilly (better-suited to being the 2nd and 3rd pairing guys respectively) but a lack of a top pairing LHD. We also have a wealth of wingers. So the question is whether we deal someone like Weber, Petry, Drouin, Gallagher, Scherbak, or so on to acquire a top pairing LHD. That's the biggest need, and there really isn't a UFA of interest in the coming crop. Ironically, if we could trade Drouin back for Sergachev, we'd probably be sitting pretty right now.

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5 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

I actually heard the same thing as 52... that Nylander's initial ask was to get a Leon Draisaitl type deal and that he's not willing to come down below 8M, which is what the Leafs have balked at.

It was a couple of the Toronto insiders who said that even though he was asking for more, $6.5 with term is what it would probably take to get him signed. Apparently the leafs are just worried about all their cap & dont want to sign for that price for a long time.  Who knows though. He could well be looking for $8-9m a year. 

 

4 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Weber for Nylander and a 2nd

or

Petry and Scherbak for Nylander

Yeah unless MB gets fired or has an epiphany i dont see us moving Weber.  Petry is definitely an option but since he doesnt have the man-mountain mystique im not sure they will bite. 

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3 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

 Ironically, if we could trade Drouin back for Sergachev, we'd probably be sitting pretty right now.

If MB somehow pulled that off ... I'd start calling him greater than Pollock

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

It was a couple of the Toronto insiders who said that even though he was asking for more, $6.5 with term is what it would probably take to get him signed. Apparently the leafs are just worried about all their cap & dont want to sign for that price for a long time.  Who knows though. He could well be looking for $8-9m a year. 

 

Yeah unless MB gets fired or has an epiphany i dont see us moving Weber.  Petry is definitely an option but since he doesnt have the man-mountain mystique im not sure they will bite. 

I definitely think Weber has higher value around the league than Petry, based solely on reputation. But if you look at a lot of the advanced stats, Petry ranks higher than Weber in most of them. Not a coincidence Andrew Berkshire's analysis had Petry 13th overall for D men in the league over the past three years with Weber not even in the top 40. I think Babcock loves Weber (he's said as much) but Dubas is an advanced stats guy, so he might well think highly of Petry, and again, Toronto has made it clear they are looking for a RHD.

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10 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Ironically, if we could trade Drouin back for Sergachev, we'd probably be sitting pretty right now.

There's been talk that Hakstol really doesnt like Sanheim.   What about Drouin for Sanheim? Do you do it? 

 

6 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

I definitely think Weber has higher value around the league than Petry, based solely on reputation. But if you look at a lot of the advanced stats, Petry ranks higher than Weber in most of them. Not a coincidence Andrew Berkshire's analysis had Petry 13th overall for D men in the league over the past three years with Weber not even in the top 40. I think Babcock loves Weber (he's said as much) but Dubas is an advanced stats guy, so he might well think highly of Petry, and again, Toronto has made it clear they are looking for a RHD.

I totally agree with everything you've said - both on what Weber is likely worth, vs. what they each bring - but while i think its remotely possible Petry could be traded, I think there's basically zero chance MB trades Weber. In fact, if there were "untouchables" on this team, Id say MB considers Kotkaniemi, Price, Weber, Gallagher and Mete as them.  Maybe Drouin too. 

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