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H_T_L

2018-19 If I were GM

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53 minutes ago, maas_art said:

There's been talk that Hakstol really doesnt like Sanheim.   What about Drouin for Sanheim? Do you do it? 

 

I totally agree with everything you've said - both on what Weber is likely worth, vs. what they each bring - but while i think its remotely possible Petry could be traded, I think there's basically zero chance MB trades Weber. In fact, if there were "untouchables" on this team, Id say MB considers Kotkaniemi, Price, Weber, Gallagher and Mete as them.  Maybe Drouin too. 

1. I wouldn't do Drouin for Sanheim. I'd want more coming back if that were the basic part of it. Remember we also gave up a conditional 2nd to get Drouin, even if we ended up not having to give it up. Drouin is still our forward with the highest ceiling for now... but all in all I rank Sergachev ahead of Sanheim.

2. I pretty much agree with your list of untouchables. I'd be surprised if he deals Byron, Lehkonen, or Juulsen either. They all seem like Bergevin-type players. And we know he balked at dealing Poehling for ROR, so got to figure he's high on keeping his young center prospects after what he went through to find them.

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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

I totally agree with everything you've said - both on what Weber is likely worth, vs. what they each bring - but while i think its remotely possible Petry could be traded, I think there's basically zero chance MB trades Weber. In fact, if there were "untouchables" on this team, Id say MB considers Kotkaniemi, Price, Weber, Gallagher and Mete as them.  Maybe Drouin too. 

I  don't think Drouin is on MB's untouchables list. So far this year he has been kind of invisible. If we get to be 15 games into the season and he doesn't start playing harder and producing he may be sat a game or two or even moved. I don't see him being moved unless we somehow win the Nylander lottery or we trade for a true goal scorer to replace him but with MB stranger things have happened because of the "wrong attitude". 

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1 minute ago, campabee82 said:

I  don't think Drouin is on MB's untouchables list. So far this year he has been kind of invisible. If we get to be 15 games into the season and he doesn't start playing harder and producing he may be sat a game or two or even moved. I don't see him being moved unless we somehow win the Nylander lottery or we trade for a true goal scorer to replace him but with MB stranger things have happened because of the "wrong attitude". 

I agree he probably shouldnt be but I think MB still sees him as a huge 'core piece' - i belive (but i could be wrong) that last year he named Price, Weber, Drouin and Mete as "untouchable"  right before trade deadline.
 
I have no problem with us moving drouin if it means getting us stronger in another position (especially young defensmen). 

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23 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I agree he probably shouldnt be but I think MB still sees him as a huge 'core piece' - i belive (but i could be wrong) that last year he named Price, Weber, Drouin and Mete as "untouchable"  right before trade deadline.
 
I have no problem with us moving drouin if it means getting us stronger in another position (especially young defensmen). 

Or a goal scorer someone who has a shoot first mentality or even a couple of shoot first prospects. Anything to go with all of our pass first forwards.

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Was reading where Kypreos was saying that Nylander was being offer 4-6 mil per year and how no team would offer sheet him cause of the draft picks they would lose but if I was to offer sheet him out from under the Leafs I would offer the 8 mil he is seeking for 2 years because the Leafs couldn't match that and the draft pick compensation is averaged over 5 years so you take the 16 mil over 5 years you  end up with an average of 3.2 mil which means you only have to give up a second round pick. Fair trade if you ask me and you agree in principal based on performance to give him a long term deal on his third contract. Then you waiver Alzner and hope he goes.and trade Benn for picks and call up Kulak and Ouellett and maybe trade Scherbak or another forward for picks 

Edited by campabee82
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12 hours ago, campabee82 said:

Was reading where Kypreos was saying that Nylander was being offer 4-6 mil per year and how no team would offer sheet him cause of the draft picks they would lose but if I was to offer sheet him out from under the Leafs I would offer the 8 mil he is seeking for 2 years because the Leafs couldn't match that and the draft pick compensation is averaged over 5 years so you take the 16 mil over 5 years you  end up with an average of 3.2 mil which means you only have to give up a second round pick. Fair trade if you ask me and you agree in principal based on performance to give him a long term deal on his third contract. Then you waiver Alzner and hope he goes.and trade Benn for picks and call up Kulak and Ouellett and maybe trade Scherbak or another forward for picks 

I'm not sure if i'm interpreting it correctly but i believe you divide it by 2 years and not 5 on your example of a 2 year deal.

 "The number and quality of draft choices due to the Prior Club shall be based on the average annual value of the compensation contained in the Principal Terms … of the New Club’s Offer Sheet (determined by dividing such compensation by the lesser the number of years of the Offer Sheet or five)."

If it is by 2, then the compensation would be for 8 mill and not the 3.2.  So we would be looking at a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd,,,, assuming it's not a dollar over 8 mill. in which case it goes an additional 1st

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/beyond-the-headlines-why-leafs’-nylander-hasn’t-received-an-offer-sheet/ar-BBOmyq8?li=AAggNb9&ocid=iehp

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14 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

I'm not sure if i'm interpreting it correctly but i believe you divide it by 2 years and not 5 on your example of a 2 year deal.

 "The number and quality of draft choices due to the Prior Club shall be based on the average annual value of the compensation contained in the Principal Terms … of the New Club’s Offer Sheet (determined by dividing such compensation by the lesser the number of years of the Offer Sheet or five)."

If it is by 2, then the compensation would be for 8 mill and not the 3.2.  So we would be looking at a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd,,,, assuming it's not a dollar over 8 mill. in which case it goes an additional 1st

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/beyond-the-headlines-why-leafs’-nylander-hasn’t-received-an-offer-sheet/ar-BBOmyq8?li=AAggNb9&ocid=iehp

That may be right! Thanks for that I guess it wouldn't make sense then

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I may still offer sheet him and trade the others to replace the draft pick compensations then would still work out that way.

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3 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

That may be right! Thanks for that I guess it wouldn't make sense then

No problem. Based on that type of compensation i think i'd rather try the trade route, but i doubt they would deal him in conference without a premium attached. I'd guess they would want a 1st and likely one of our kids on D. I don't think we're in a position  to give up either though. Not convinced they would want another forward.

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4 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

I may still offer sheet him and trade the others to replace the draft pick compensations then would still work out that way.

Possible. It would be the 1st that would be hard to replace.

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4 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

Possible. It would be the 1st that would be hard to replace.

Not if you do Schebak straight up for a first you might get that for him

Edited by campabee82
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1 minute ago, campabee82 said:

Not if you do Schebak straight up for a first you might get that for him

I'd be surprised personally but who knows. If they can't find a taker he just might be made available for free soon.

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I expect if we were able to get Nylander to sign an offer sheet of $8-ish million per season for 6-7 years Toronto would just match it. I think Nylander is probably worth a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round draft choice, but... who's to say for certain?

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1 hour ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I expect if we were able to get Nylander to sign an offer sheet of $8-ish million per season for 6-7 years Toronto would just match it. I think Nylander is probably worth a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round draft choice, but... who's to say for certain?

Toronto can't afford to sign him at 8 mil with Marner expected to get 8-9 mil and Mathews expected to get between 12-14 mil and Garner 6-7 mil they would only have about 4.7 mil to split between 7 other free agents next year. Which include Lindholm, Kapenen, Johnson, Ennis and others.

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2 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I expect if we were able to get Nylander to sign an offer sheet of $8-ish million per season for 6-7 years Toronto would just match it. I think Nylander is probably worth a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round draft choice, but... who's to say for certain?

Yeah its tough to say. My gut is that 99% of the time a team will match the offer - but - this could be that 1% of the time.  They are playing lights-out with regards to offense and the longer he sits, the more they probably realize they dont need him to win.   Turning him into multiple draft picks could be what the doctor ordered, although I still think it makes way more sense to try to flip him for a RHD.   Picks are good because they dont mess with Toronto's cap but a top pairing dman would be a whole lot better for Toronto right now. 

1 hour ago, campabee82 said:

Toronto can't afford to sign him at 8 mil with Marner expected to get 8-9 mil and Mathews expected to get between 12-14 mil and Garner 6-7 mil they would only have about 4.7 mil to split between 7 other free agents next year. Which include Lindholm, Kapenen, Johnson, Ennis and others.

Well there's always a way. I agree that there's no way they can sign all of those players but they could certainly match any offer & then make a trade next summer.   It (an offer sheet) would definitely complicate things for toronto though.  I mean ideally they move Nylander for defensive help now. If Toronto matches an offer sheet they cannot trade him for 1 year (to the day).   Now, maybe they never intended to let him go & they will instead move a guy like Marner or Kapanen or something but it would certainly force their hand and any time you can mess up Toronto's plans, you gotta do it. :P

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It's always a plus to mess up a rival's plan but at the end of the day we need to remember that it opens you up to possible retribution down the road. The more people you piss off the more bridges you burn. It's likely the main reason behind offer sheets not being offered. 

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2 hours ago, campabee82 said:

Toronto can't afford to sign him at 8 mil with Marner expected to get 8-9 mil and Mathews expected to get between 12-14 mil and Garner 6-7 mil they would only have about 4.7 mil to split between 7 other free agents next year. Which include Lindholm, Kapenen, Johnson, Ennis and others.

Toronto can afford to sign him now, though. They can worry about trading him for the return they want after... If they have to. They might think they can do better than Montreal's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. They could probably get a 1st, really good prospect, and additional picks for him if they dictated the trade.

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3 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

They might think they can do better than Montreal's 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. They could probably get a 1st, really good prospect, and additional picks for him if they dictated the trade.

Agreed.  If Pacioretty got us Tatar, Suzuki & a pick you have to think Nylander would get even more. 

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Just now, maas_art said:

Agreed.  If Pacioretty got us Tatar, Suzuki & a pick you have to think Nylander would get even more. 

Exactly. I'm sure they would prefer to have total control of how Nylander may or may not leave the organization.

Toronto has over $11 million to work with right now, and they'll have $30 million to work with next year (assuming Nylander doesn't sign this year). That's plenty of cap space to play with and ensure Toronto comes out with the best lineup and best return for anyone they have to trade. It'll be a tight situation for them, but it's easily manageable.

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It's just such a gamble to give away 1st rounders in a trade when you don't know what that 1st rounder will be. It's a different story to give up the 24th overall pick or 28th overall pick when you know what that is (i.e. at the draft), but to give up a 1st rounder when it could be a lottery pick and a top 5 choice is very very risky. Just look at the mess the Sens are in with the Duchene trade. I can understand trading a 1st if you're Washington or Nashville or San Jose and you're confident you'll be a high-end team, but if you trade your 1st next year for Nylander, there's a risk it's a player who's better than Nylander and who does it better while making considerably less money for the next 5 years.

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So looking at teams on the outside of the projected playoff picture and our needs for defense. I came up with a possible package deal that would be interesting to consider. We could propose Scherbak and Alzner to the Islanders for Aho and/or Dobson, a third round pick and a fourth round pick. Thus dumping Alzners contract (although we may have to retain some) and getting decent D prospect/s and picks in return. I think they may consider it cause they need dmen badly and have 11 mil cap space. You may even be able to squeeze out a decent forward like Komorov if you offered up Peca, Ouellett or Benn ect.

Edited by campabee82
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Adding Alzner to ANY trade just makes it less likely anyone would be willing to accept the trade. He has 0 value. He has negative value because of the value and length of his contract.

I think the other general managers in the NHL will have understood what a mistake Montreal made. I'd rather keep him this season (confined to the press-box as much as possible) and worry about it later. I think we'd have to retain a significant amount of salary were we to trade him. I don't see a buyout as being an option right now, either.

In addition, I'm more concerned with making sure Alzer's contract is off the books by 2020-2021, which is when Victor Mete and Noah Juulsen may require new contracts.

Edited by jennifer_rocket
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Absolutely no way we're getting either Aho or Dobson out of NYI with Scherbak and Alzner. The value is more like Josh Ho-Sang and Andrew Ladd for Scherbak and Alzner.

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33 minutes ago, Noob616 said:

Absolutely no way we're getting either Aho or Dobson out of NYI with Scherbak and Alzner. The value is more like Josh Ho-Sang and Andrew Ladd for Scherbak and Alzner.

Agreed.  Alzner is negative value and im not sure Scherbak has a super high value around the league.  

Ho Sang and Ladd would probably be exactly what NY would offer for those 2 with each being basically the same player as the other.  Depending upon how i felt about Ho Sang, I might consider that deal.   Either could be 1st line players and either could be a bust.   Id argue that Ladd is a better player right now than Alzner, but on an equally horrific contract.  The difference is that you could put Ladd in your bottom 6 and still have a useful (albeit hugely overpaid) player while Alzner  on the roster actively hurts you. But on the flip side, Alzner's actual money-owed goes down considerably in the next year or 2 and he could be appealing to a cheap team with a large cap surplus.   We also have basically no space up front so im not sure where Ladd would play although he'd be an upgrade on Plekanec, Deslauriers etc. 

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