Jump to content
The Official Site of the Montréal Canadiens
Canadiens de Montreal

2018 - 2019 Habs Magic Number & Lottery Race


Recommended Posts

19 hours ago, H_T_L said:

As i stated in tonight's GDT,,,, wouldn't it be sweet to be the team who knocks out the Leafs from the playoffs.:lol:

Shades of 2005’s last game of the season, except back then we lost. What a game that was. I think it was 2005, anyway. We lost a back and forth affair 6-5. I could be wrong. 

...

MN is 9.

Columbus playing their game in hand this evening against Buffalo. A Bluejackets loss puts us back into a tie (though losing on the tiebreaker) but a win closes the door a little more on hope as we’d be 2 down with 3 to play. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Flying_Lion said:

Shades of 2005’s last game of the season, except back then we lost. What a game that was. I think it was 2005, anyway. We lost a back and forth affair 6-5. I could be wrong. 

...

MN is 9.

Columbus playing their game in hand this evening against Buffalo. A Bluejackets loss puts us back into a tie (though losing on the tiebreaker) but a win closes the door a little more on hope as we’d be 2 down with 3 to play. 

Yeah,,,, i was on a plane coming home. When i left we were winning by a couple i believe. Got the bad news when we landed. Put a damper on my holiday. Revenge would be so sweet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So here we are... as expected, Clb easily handled Buffalo and thankfully, Carolina didn't cause an upset and lost to Pittsburgh. Clb is again likely the team that we're not going to catch, as they have a schedule that's simply too easy. If they win the two easy games against NYR and Ott, then we'd need at least 5 points to pass them (and we are now guaranteed to lose the tie-break to them).

Carolina remains the real focus. Each team now has 3 games to play, with the Canes 1 point up on us and one ROW ahead as well. However, the Habs won the season series, so if we tie in ROW, we actually move ahead. That means for example if the Habs beat Tampa and Carolina loses in OT/SO to Toronto, we would temporarily be in 8th place. Then it would come down to the final two games. As it is, it's basically a match-up of who wins more of their last three games, albeit Carolina has a much easier schedule.

There are two games on tap for tomorrow that affect us to some degree, Tor @NYI and Was@Fla... if Was wins, then a NYI regulation loss would clinch the division for Washington and mean they would be locked into their playoff spot, hence maybe a reason to rest players against us. Conversely, if the Isles win, Washington still has something to play for, but an Isles win in regulation keeps a small slimmer of hope of still catching the Leafs. It makes the Carolina-Toronto game even more intriguing the following night. If Toronto beats Carolina, it helps us out, but in this scenario, if Car beats Tor in regulation then it leaves the Leafs only two points up on us, assuming we also hold up our own end of the bargain and beat TB.

Worst case scenario for us? Toronto gets a point tomorrow against the Isles and clinch 3rd in the division. We lose in regulation to Tampa and Carolina and Columbus both win in regulation on Tuesday. That would require us to win both our last two games and hope Carolina comes up empty in their two, which would be almost impossible odds to play against. As tough as it will be, a win vs. Tampa is necessary Tuesday. Hopefully, they are missing Hedman and hopefully they are somewhat beat up by playing Ottawa the night before. It could be as favorable a chance as we have against Tampa, with our boys having a 3-day break, Tampa coming in on B2B maybe without their best D man, and their already having clinched, plus being in our own building and our having everything to play for. If the Habs can't get up to win the game, they'd never beat Tampa in a playoff series anyways then...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not that the stakes were high tonight, but it was another worst-case scenario for us in the game that mattered:

- Toronto wins, meaning they clinch a playoff spot and are no longer catchable for us, so that option is done.

- Washington loses , meaning they haven't yet clinched first in the division and will still have something to play for on Thursday.

So no help from either game tonight... hopefully Toronto brings their A game again against the Canes tomorrow. They can still catch Boston for home ice, so they should still be motivated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

... hopefully Toronto brings their A game again against the Canes tomorrow. They can still catch Boston for home ice, so they should still be motivated.

Not with Sparks in net :4224:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pit 97 pts, 41 ROW; vs Det and vs NYR

Canes 95 pts, 42 ROW; vs NJD and @Phi

Jackets 94 pts, 44 ROW, @NYR and @Ott

Habs 94 pts, 41 ROW, @Was and vs Tor

 

To pass the Pens, we'd need two wins and for them to not pick up more than a point OR a win and an OT/SO loss without their picking up a point.

To pass the Canes, we'd need two more points than them OR one more point than them provided we get an extra ROW than they do (we won the season series 2nd tie-break).

To pass Columbus, we'd need one more point than them.

 

But basically, the other three teams we can catch all have easier match-ups against non-playoff teams. Toronto has stated they will play Andersen against us but might consider resting other guys. I think if we can beat Washington, we'll carry momentum into the Toronto one. The big question is whether we can beat Washington. I can't see Clb losing both games. They might win both but they're almost certainly going to win one. Ditto for Carolina. So there's really no choice at this point but to beat Washington and hope someone loses a game against a nobody. Odds remain stacked against us.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

Still a tough pill to swallow that we could potentially finish with 98 points and not get in.

Especially with how many points our PP, coaching (did CJ even use one challenge this year?) and Niemi have cost us. We could have been in Boston's spot with the Leafs fighting for a WC spot. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Worst possible scenario. If Habs lose in regulation to Washington and Car and Clb both win in any way, we're eliminated as early as Friday. We need to win against Washington to make the Toronto game count.

So ... big game?

...

MN is 6.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was a good run, if incomplete. 

I slacked on NL board updates during the closing weeks, sorry, seeing as how there only a couple of teams we were chasing. Looking at the end of season standings, a few things stand out:

- 4 points back of Toronto. Had we not blown that 3-goal a while back, that’s a 4-point swing right there. We would’ve lost the tiebreaker but the race ended up much closer than it seemed for a lot of the season.

- 2 points back of Columbus. Win our last game against them and we’re in.

- 3 points back of Carolina. Win our last game against them and we’re in. 

Sure, every team can go back through the season and find missed points but there’s a bit of a sting knowing we had at least 2 solid chances and didn’t capitalize.

Orher factors that could’ve put us in the post-season, IMO, some with more ease than others maybe:

- a better PP

- better goaltending (by Price early in the season and by Niemi all season long)

- better finish by Drouin

Other things went drastically in our favour, namely Tatar and Domi and Price’s return to form.

Hopefully we can maintain some of the positives going into next season while improving upon and mitigating some of our liabilities. 

Another long off-season begins, about 180 days give or take. :P

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • H_T_L locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...