BigTed3

The 2021 Expansion Draft

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The NHL confirmed today that Seattle will enter the league in 2021 and that the expansion draft will follow the same rules as what Vegas was given. Thus, the teams can protect 7F, 3D, and 1 goalie or 8 total skaters and 1 goalie. All 1st and 2nd year pros are exempt, so basically anyone playing with the Habs/Rocket already this year will need to be protected and anyone who doesn't meet criteria for having played this year (e.g. Suzuki or Brook) will remain exempt. Kotkaniemi, Juulsen, and Mete would thus all require protection as is.

The Habs will, however, have several players hitting UFA status that summer, so as with Radulov last draft, they can choose not to re-sign them until after the ED but could theoretically lose their rights. These would include Tatar, Gallagher, Petry, and Danault. Obviously, the roster will change between now and then, but with our current roster, the Habs should be looking at protecting a group that would include Drouin, Domi, Kotkaniemi, and Lehkonen as 4 of the 7 forwards. The other 3 would come from a pool of Gallagher, Tatar, Danault, Shaw, Byron, Hudon, Evans, and Armia. As is, I would personally look at Gallagher (despite his UFA status) as being the 5th guy, and the rest are a toss-up for me. Tatar and Byron are good now, but may be on the downhill by then, and I'm not sure we'll be hurting too much if we lose one of those other guys in 2021.

On D, would guess Juulsen and Mete are two of the guys we protect. The last spot comes down to Weber vs. UFA Petry vs. Fleury (if he really breaks out as a youngster). Weber will be 36 and still have 4 years left on his deal. At that point, we wouldn't be hit too hard by any cap recapture penalty, so I think down the line we should consider exposing him, and I'm not sure Petry will still be in our plans or as viable an option to preserve by then.

In net, Carey has a NMC so must be protected over Lindgren and McNiven.

So all in all, barring whatever moves we make, we don't have a lot to lose (for better or for worse). Even if we protect our 3 UFA forwards, the worst case scenario is that we lose Armia, Hudon, Evans, or Byron up front or one of an aging Weber or Fleury on D. If Lindgren does pan out, then he's probably the guy with the greatest value that we'd stand to lose, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Habs just trade him beforehand if he's really that valuable by then.

 

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Who I would Protect:

Forwards

Kotkaniemi, Drouin, Domi, Lehkonen, (all no brainers) Gallagher, Tatar, and it would be whoever is playing better at the time Evans or Hudon.

Defense

Mete, Juulsen, Fleury My thinking on this is basically this Weber likely won't get taken at 36 and 4 years remaining, leave Petry to resign after the ED if he is still here at that time. If by some miricale we have a #1 LHD I would protect him over Mete. RHD are much harder to replace especially young talented ones like Juulsen and Fleury. 

Goalie

Price, if he is still playing above average. If not McNiven assuming Lindgren is being moved between now and then.

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 There's some players that are already protected from the 2021 expansion draft thanks to their no movement clauses. 

Of course like Marc-Andre Fleury did with the Pittsburgh Penguins, a player can waive his no movement clause to make himself eligible however it's usually pretty rare. 

As of right now 34 players are automatically protected and the Chicago Blackhawks, Dallas Stars and Pittsburgh Penguins lead the way with 4 protected players each. Carey Price will automatically be protected for the Habs' and as of right now is the only player, if Seattle would have jumped into the league in 2020 instead, Jeff Petry would have also been protected. 

More contracts will be signed between now and 2021 which will likely feature no movement clauses, but for now let's take a look at who's not automatically protected. 

Arizona - Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Boston - Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand
Carolina - Jordan Staal
Chicago Blackhawks - Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook
Colorado - Erik Johnson
Dallas - Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov, Ben Bishop
Detroit - Frans Nielson
Edmonton - Milan Lucic
Florida - Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau
Los Angeles - Drew Doughty
Minnesota - Zach Parise, Ryan Suter
Montreal - Carey Price
New York Rangers - Mika Zibanejad
Philadelphia - Claude Giroux
Pittsburgh - Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel, Kris Letang
San Jose - Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Tampa Bay - Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman
Toronto - John Tavares
Winnipeg - Blake Wheeler

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 The increased expansion fee means more “moving money” for players selected by Seattle in 2021. Those selected by Vegas received approximately $16,000 to relocate their families. Future “Krakens” get $20,000.

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4 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

 The increased expansion fee means more “moving money” for players selected by Seattle in 2021. Those selected by Vegas received approximately $16,000 to relocate their families. Future “Krakens” get $20,000.

Kind of silly when you figure these guys are all making a zillion dollars.   I mean sure if you're making 50k a year, you deserve a moving bonus from your employer but when your salary is probably upwards of a few million dollars?  

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10 hours ago, maas_art said:

Kind of silly when you figure these guys are all making a zillion dollars.   I mean sure if you're making 50k a year, you deserve a moving bonus from your employer but when your salary is probably upwards of a few million dollars?  

I had to move for work once. The company paid my moving expenses nothing extra, and I don't "quite" make a million a year! :4322:

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4 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

I had to move for work once. The company paid my moving expenses nothing extra, and I don't "quite" make a million a year! :4322:

Exactly. I mean it is what it is but it seems pretty silly. Its like when the league fines a guy $5k - seems sort of pointless. 

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With all these players turning pro, this is the rule for the 2021 expansion draft, which becomes important:

- A player who is 18 or 19 this year is allowed to play in the AHL without it counting towards a year of experience against his free agency status or towards the ED. However, if he plays 10 NHL games or more, then it counts as a contract year. So Kotkaniemi, for example, is counted this year as having a year of experience.

- A player who is 20 or older has a year of experience counted if he plays in 10 professional games, no matter whether they are AHL or NHL. Both regular season and playoff games count. So a player like Poehling or Primeau, if they get signed, would be able to play 9 games without consequence. However, if Poehling were to go and play 4 games for Laval and the Habs managed to make the playoffs and recalled him and had him play 6 games here, then he'd be at 10 total. That would then count as a year of professional experience. Brook turns 20 this year, so the same rule should apply to him.

So why is this a big deal? The ED rules for Seattle will be the same as for Vegas. Therefore a player with 1 or  2 pro years counted is exempt from needing protection. If Poehling doesn't play 10 games this year, then his first two years pro would technically be 2019-20 and 2020-21. Therefore, he should be exempt for the ED in 2021. Ditto for Primeau and Brook. But if you have them playing 10 or more this season, then they would need protection come 2021. Maybe a small detail now, but could be a vital mistake to bring one of these kids in and have them count against your exemption list in 2 years. The roster will change, no doubt, but imagine having to protect Brook in addition to Mete and Juulsen... it means you're exposing Weber or Petry or Fleury or whoever else you have on your roster instead. Not playing Brook 10 games this season means you get a freebie on your exemption list down the line.

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Will C. Primeau be protected?

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5 hours ago, FanFromAB said:

Will C. Primeau be protected?

Doesn't have to be, so no issue. We'd have to protect McNiven and Lindgren, but it doesn't look like that'll matter to us if Primeau is deemed the best one of the lot.

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On 18/04/2019 at 7:45 PM, BigTed3 said:

Doesn't have to be, so no issue. We'd have to protect McNiven and Lindgren, but it doesn't look like that'll matter to us if Primeau is deemed the best one of the lot.

true but if we aren't protecting them, I'd say we might want think about moving one of them if we can and start thinking of that now

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12 minutes ago, habsisme said:

true but if we aren't protecting them, I'd say we might want think about moving one of them if we can and start thinking of that now

You also need to have one goalie to expose in the draft who is experienced and not a UFA. So if the Habs plan on using Lindgren as their back-up, they'd kind of have to keep him around as the exposed goalie. Otherwise, you'd have to sign/acquire someone just to expose them.

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Is it early to make a protected list at the present time (2019-2020)? Is it late to make a protected list in 2021? According to me, this is how I'm doing it. My method is to show to our players and prospects that anyone is replaceable. My method is to show to our players and prospects that no one is bigger than our 1909. In a positive note. Like that, they'll fight until the end. Every players are equals. No matter what. Everyone gonna play for the jersey. Nobody gonna get a clue about their future.They ought no choice to convince our hockey operations to protect them. Not the opposite.

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1 hour ago, ahmedou said:

Is it early to make a protected list at the present time (2019-2020)? Is it late to make a protected list in 2021? According to me, this is how I'm doing it. My method is to show to our players and prospects that anyone is replaceable. My method is to show to our players and prospects that no one is bigger than our 1909. In a positive note. Like that, they'll fight until the end. Every players are equals. No matter what. Everyone gonna play for the jersey. Nobody gonna get a clue about their future.They ought no choice to convince our hockey operations to protect them. Not the opposite.

I like internal competition as much as anyone one but unless you convince the stars that your committed to them why would they commit to your team? They wouldn't no one would. If I was your boss and came out and told you to do a job or I would replace you would you commit to the company or look for a company who would commit to you as well? Me personally I eod already be looking for a new job. 

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9 hours ago, ahmedou said:

Is it early to make a protected list at the present time (2019-2020)? Is it late to make a protected list in 2021? According to me, this is how I'm doing it. My method is to show to our players and prospects that anyone is replaceable. My method is to show to our players and prospects that no one is bigger than our 1909. In a positive note. Like that, they'll fight until the end. Every players are equals. No matter what. Everyone gonna play for the jersey. Nobody gonna get a clue about their future.They ought no choice to convince our hockey operations to protect them. Not the opposite.

I can't wait to see the look on Carey Price's when you tell him he now makes $3.5 million/year just like everyone else on the team! 

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22 hours ago, habs1952 said:

I can't wait to see the look on Carey Price's when you tell him he now makes $3.5 million/year just like everyone else on the team! 

The word equality isn’t associated to the salary necessarily. Salary at the maximum or at the minimum haven’t quite an importance. I don’t care about the names. I don’t care about their popularity. I don’t care about their fanbase. What I care is about the Montreal Canadiens. That’s it that’s all. And the players must care about the Montreal Canadiens too. And nothing else. I mean concerning the sporting terms. 

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On 2019-07-14 at 1:34 PM, campabee82 said:

I like internal competition as much as anyone one but unless you convince the stars that your committed to them why would they commit to your team? They wouldn't no one would. If I was your boss and came out and told you to do a job or I would replace you would you commit to the company or look for a company who would commit to you as well? Me personally I eod already be looking for a new job. 

Business it’s. The world of professionalism. That’s my CH world. It’s up to us to make this environment positive tho. Some players understand. Okay with this. It’s nothing against them. They’re human beings at the end. This is the pros. The winning culture. The values.  The impact on the CV. The history. The prestige. The privilege. The whole stuff alongside that. The whole city is with our and their habs’ers. The whole fan is with our and their habs’ers. But there’s rules... Alike a religion. To you from failing hands we throw the torch. Be yours to hold it high.

Don’t take so much the comfort zone in Montreal. Don’t think that your spot is guaranteed. Nothing is for granted. The probationary period ain’t for three months. The probationary period is during... The  training. The preseasons. On the ice. Off the ice. Etc...

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