kinot-2

Rumours

335 posts in this topic

2 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

The Duchene rumors concern me.   Yes he's a good player, but do we really need to pursue a center?   The only way this makes sense is if the Habs think Poehling/Suzuki don't make the team out of camp.   

 

I agree to an extent.

I think Duchene is the type of player that if you can get him, you do.  Under Julien he would thrive so its a good fit. We have several tradable assets up front but having said that, like you, I worry there is no plan.  Last training camp we clearly had not filled out hole at LD and had like 11 second and third pairing players show up hoping one of them could be a top pairing guy. 

If we signed Duchene, I think you would HAVE to move at least one top 6 guy (and id do that even if we dont sign him, we're getting a logjam) but i also think MB may just let the chips fall where they may & see who excels in camp.

I feel like Suzuki is going to force his way onto this roster. He's hungry & He knows he was close last year.    JK I believe is going to come to camp ready to rock & I think he's going to be considerably better than last year. Poehling may be the odd man out (despite his career 3gpg pace :P)  but he's also older so its entirely possible he's ready to go too.

So what do you do? I mean i dont think anyone cares if you press-box Weal or Thompson but after a (prorated 60pt) season for Shaw are we really going to put him in the pressbox or even play him on the 4th line? Or Byron, or Lehkonen? Surely would make more sense to trade someone  What about Drouin? If we sign Duchene, Domi presumably goes back to LW and Tatar was a beast so now Drouin is what, your 3rd line LW?


So, while I do like Duchene - and I do hope we sign him actually - i sure hope that means we are then trading away guys like Drouin or Shaw to finally get help at LD. Maybe one of them gets moved at the draft so we can move up and draft Byram or something. 

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12 minutes ago, maas_art said:


So, while I do like Duchene - and I do hope we sign him actually - i sure hope that means we are then trading away guys like Drouin or Shaw to finally get help at LD. Maybe one of them gets moved at the draft so we can move up and draft Byram or something. 

Thats my entire concern.   We finally have 3 incredible prospects at C (Kotkaniemi, Poehling and Suzuki) ... heck even if Suzuki plays C ... that's Kotkaniemi/Suzukie as 1/2 and Poehling as your solid 2way guy like Bergeron

But getting Duchene ... hell there better be a plan, or is MB just throwing money at players with a french name.

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40 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

Thats my entire concern.   We finally have 3 incredible prospects at C (Kotkaniemi, Poehling and Suzuki) ... heck even if Suzuki plays C ... that's Kotkaniemi/Suzukie as 1/2 and Poehling as your solid 2way guy like Bergeron

But getting Duchene ... hell there better be a plan, or is MB just throwing money at players with a french name.

MB just throw away money??  Isn't that what he is know for?? Bad trades and bad signings..........

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1 hour ago, HabsAlways said:

Thats my entire concern.   We finally have 3 incredible prospects at C (Kotkaniemi, Poehling and Suzuki) ... heck even if Suzuki plays C ... that's Kotkaniemi/Suzukie as 1/2 and Poehling as your solid 2way guy like Bergeron

But getting Duchene ... hell there better be a plan, or is MB just throwing money at players with a french name.

Folks say that a lot but how many french players are on the team right now? he seems to be way more concerned about a french coach rather than french players.

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9 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

FWIW here's a link to a RFA rumour linked to us. It's a short read.  

 

https://www.gohabsgo.com/articles/canadiens-listed-as-team-who-could-possibly-break-/

 

9 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

 It will take more then 11 mill to be taken seriously. He should be making Mathews type money and i'm sure the Leafs are thinking the same thing. It will take McDavid + type money ( something along the lines of 5 years at 13 mill, with most of it up front ) for the Leafs to balk and take the picks and for Marner to seriously consider us IMO. Can't see MB going there. At the same time,,,, we have the picks and resources to make that happen.

If MB were contemplating this kind of strategy he wouldn't have gone out and committed money to those lower tier guys like Thompson and Weal. Those type of signings are clear indicators which way he intends to proceed. The bargain route as usual. It's all about quantity with Bergevin

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1 hour ago, H_T_L said:

If MB were contemplating this kind of strategy he wouldn't have gone out and committed money to those lower tier guys like Thompson and Weal. Those type of signings are clear indicators which way he intends to proceed. The bargain route as usual. It's all about quantity with Bergevin

Agreed.

I think MB will try to land an UFA and maybe he'll try to make a trade but i fully expect to have like 18 capable 2nd - 4th liners in camp this year & the hope that one of them "will surprise" and steal a spot.

The MB Motto of Quantity over quality.  Dont get me wrong, i love our depth. Its amazing, after the years we've had in the past, to possibly have so much depth that our 4th line could actually be something like Byron - Poehling - Shaw is a welcome change.  But like last year with so many LD and none being true first pairing guys, we're lacking that top end talent & its just not going to appear.  Hopefully a guy like Suzuki is ready but id still feel a lot better if we signed one game breaking talent.   Could you imagine this team with Panarin added? 

 

 

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

Agreed.

I think MB will try to land an UFA and maybe he'll try to make a trade but i fully expect to have like 18 capable 2nd - 4th liners in camp this year & the hope that one of them "will surprise" and steal a spot.

The MB Motto of Quantity over quality.  Dont get me wrong, i love our depth. Its amazing, after the years we've had in the past, to possibly have so much depth that our 4th line could actually be something like Byron - Poehling - Shaw is a welcome change.  But like last year with so many LD and none being true first pairing guys, we're lacking that top end talent & its just not going to appear.  Hopefully a guy like Suzuki is ready but id still feel a lot better if we signed one game breaking talent.   Could you imagine this team with Panarin added? 

 

 

I think MB should do a bold move given our depth.   Getting an older UFA doesn't help long term ... with that in mind, shoot for the moon ... offer sheet Marner or Laine high enough that their teams can't sign them.   Both teams have cap issues, we don't.

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1 hour ago, HabsAlways said:

I think MB should do a bold move given our depth.   Getting an older UFA doesn't help long term ... with that in mind, shoot for the moon ... offer sheet Marner or Laine high enough that their teams can't sign them.   Both teams have cap issues, we don't.

I just dont see that any offer sheet for any high end player will ever work.  I think maybe you get a mid-tier player if a team is hard against the cap but a top player like those 2, the teams have already worked out what they'll have to do to if someone goes that route.  There's always a team out there that will take on a bad contract or similar if they can get an asset back like we did with Winnipeg last year.

 

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18 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I just dont see that any offer sheet for any high end player will ever work.  I think maybe you get a mid-tier player if a team is hard against the cap but a top player like those 2, the teams have already worked out what they'll have to do to if someone goes that route.  There's always a team out there that will take on a bad contract or similar if they can get an asset back like we did with Winnipeg last year.

 

This year is unique though

For Leafs ... they have Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson ... and are tight against cap.   Rumor is they're low balling Marner at 7-8, but he wants 10+

Jets similar situation, not a lot of cap room and wouldn't have enough to keep both Laine and Connor(conner?) if a big offer sheet was made.

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39 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

This year is unique though

For Leafs ... they have Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson ... and are tight against cap.   Rumor is they're low balling Marner at 7-8, but he wants 10+

Jets similar situation, not a lot of cap room and wouldn't have enough to keep both Laine and Connor(conner?) if a big offer sheet was made.

Right but in both situations if they are going to lose someone, it would be the middle tier guys.  If someone offer-sheets Marner, you can bet Toronto has a plan.  They may already have talked to someone about a deal getting Nylander in that case. 

im not saying its not worth trying, I just dont see any way a truly elite player doesnt get matched by his team.   Teams can go over the cap in the summer so they have time to work it out if they do.     Panarin, Duchene, Karlsson - these are elite players who usually dont make it to UFA. Yes they are a little older, but still worth the add if you can.  Not sure we can get any of them here (Duchene seems the most likely)

 

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, maas_art said:

Right but in both situations if they are going to lose someone, it would be the middle tier guys.  If someone offer-sheets Marner, you can bet Toronto has a plan.  They may already have talked to someone about a deal getting Nylander in that case. 

im not saying its not worth trying, I just dont see any way a truly elite player doesnt get matched by his team.   Teams can go over the cap in the summer so they have time to work it out if they do.     Panarin, Duchene, Karlsson - these are elite players who usually dont make it to UFA. Yes they are a little older, but still worth the add if you can.  Not sure we can get any of them here (Duchene seems the most likely)

 

Maybe I am thinking about this all wrong but I would attempt to force their hands by first sending a high offer sheet that they would match for the second tier players like Conner or Kapanen then if they match it send a higher unlikely to match offer sheet to the Liane or Marnier guys. I get they may match it and try and sort it out later that's a risk but it at least puts them in a situation where they may have to move someone or not resign a UFA that we could pick up 

Edited by campabee82
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MB = no offer sheet ever. no way on this earth he will do it the risk is too high what if one of the draft picks turns out to be superstar? never going to happen.

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1 hour ago, campabee82 said:

Maybe I am thinking about this all wrong but I would attempt to force their hands by first sending a high offer sheet that they would match for the second tier players like Conner or Kapanen then if they match it send a higher unlikely to match offer sheet to the Liane or Marnier guys. I get they may match it and try and sort it out later that's a risk but it at least puts them in a situation where they may have to move someone or not resign a UFA that we could pick up 

I think if you offersheet someone you basically are giving them the middle finger. So the chances of them a) ever trading with you in the near future are probably nil and  b ) they will do whatever it takes to match any other offer you make.    An offer sheet is an all-in in poker. You'd better know what you're doing or you're going to get burned. 

1 hour ago, ramcharger440 said:

MB = no offer sheet ever. no way on this earth he will do it the risk is too high what if one of the draft picks turns out to be superstar? never going to happen.

Yeah i mean i think there's like a 2% chance he even tries one.  Its just soooooo unlikely to ever work out.  Back in the 90s there were some offer sheet movements than happened but in the last 10 years there's been nothing. I think Dustin Penner was the last one in what 2007?   So thats 12 years.     I could see MB targetting a team like Toronto & saying "look, before someone puts an offer sheet in on Marner, lets talk about player x"  but i dont think there's any real chance he puts out an actual offer sheet offer. 

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32 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I think if you offersheet someone you basically are giving them the middle finger. So the chances of them a) ever trading with you in the near future are probably nil and  b ) they will do whatever it takes to match any other offer you make.    An offer sheet is an all-in in poker. You'd better know what you're doing or you're going to get burned. 

Yeah i mean i think there's like a 2% chance he even tries one.  Its just soooooo unlikely to ever work out.  Back in the 90s there were some offer sheet movements than happened but in the last 10 years there's been nothing. I think Dustin Penner was the last one in what 2007?   So thats 12 years.     I could see MB targetting a team like Toronto & saying "look, before someone puts an offer sheet in on Marner, lets talk about player x"  but i dont think there's any real chance he puts out an actual offer sheet offer. 

The last one was actually Ryan O'Rielly I think it was 2013 though can't remember for sure. I agree I don't think MB has the stomach for it he is too much of a kiss a** lmao

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I wouldn't offer-sheet Marner or Point. I don't see the... point. These guys are going to want salaries that push the compensation up to 4 first rounders or at best two firsts and other picks. That in itself should raise doubts about the value of that move. In the cap era, entry level players on controlled salaries have great value in themselves and then you go and contrast that to paying an RFA 10M+. It handicaps what else you can do under your cap. Would you rather have Marner or would you rather have Kotkaniemi, Juulsen, and 8M in cap space to spend on someone else?

Second, I think you need to look at our priorities if ever we decide to offer-sheet. You can go out and take a stab at a top 6 forward on the UFA market... Panarin, Skinner, Duchene, Eberle, Lee, etc. Those guys are out there and for a lesser cost, without the compensation due. What isn't available on the UFA market and what are biggest need is, is a top-pairing LHD. So if ever MB was going to consider an offer sheet, I'd argue it should be for that and it should be a guy where we're not giving up 4 firsts to sign him. I'd rather he go out and offer-sheet Zach Werenski or Travis Sanheim or Ivan Provorov, for example. Get a young guy who hasn't quite hit full potential and who can maybe be a top pairing guy for many years. It's a bit of a risk on talent, maybe, but it could bear big dividends too.

So could you offer Werenski 7.8M for 5 years, for example? It costs you a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, but if you bet on yourself to do well next year, then those could be late round picks and you fill THE major hole on your roster. Barring that, maybe you try Provorov or Sanheim for 6M a season. That costs you a first and a third but then you have a potential top 4 LHD, and you're probably not getting a guy who can fill that role in the next 2-3 years from your 1st or 3rd round picks anyways. Maybe the other team matches, but then they're stuffing money into those assets when they don't want to. To me, an offersheet like that makes more sense to us than one going after Marner or Point or so on.

So if I were MB, maybe I'd make a pitch for Werenski and then I'd go after Skinner as a UFA, following which I'd try to trade Drouin to clear up some cap space. I personally think a strategy like that makes us better than Marner at 10-13M per season.

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8 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

I think MB should do a bold move given our depth.   Getting an older UFA doesn't help long term ... with that in mind, shoot for the moon ... offer sheet Marner or Laine high enough that their teams can't sign them.   Both teams have cap issues, we don't.

I can name 30 other teams that, if in the same predicament as the Leafs, would sign the player and deal with the cap issue later. With a player of that caliber it's a no brainer decision.  

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2 hours ago, campabee82 said:

The last one was actually Ryan O'Rielly I think it was 2013 though can't remember for sure. I agree I don't think MB has the stomach for it he is too much of a kiss a** lmao

Right and it was quickly matched.  LIke i said, there hasnt been any offer sheet movement  of players since Dustin Penner. 

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

I wouldn't offer-sheet Marner or Point. I don't see the... point. These guys are going to want salaries that push the compensation up to 4 first rounders or at best two firsts and other picks. That in itself should raise doubts about the value of that move. In the cap era, entry level players on controlled salaries have great value in themselves and then you go and contrast that to paying an RFA 10M+. It handicaps what else you can do under your cap. Would you rather have Marner or would you rather have Kotkaniemi, Juulsen, and 8M in cap space to spend on someone else?

Second, I think you need to look at our priorities if ever we decide to offer-sheet. You can go out and take a stab at a top 6 forward on the UFA market... Panarin, Skinner, Duchene, Eberle, Lee, etc. Those guys are out there and for a lesser cost, without the compensation due. What isn't available on the UFA market and what are biggest need is, is a top-pairing LHD. So if ever MB was going to consider an offer sheet, I'd argue it should be for that and it should be a guy where we're not giving up 4 firsts to sign him. I'd rather he go out and offer-sheet Zach Werenski or Travis Sanheim or Ivan Provorov, for example. Get a young guy who hasn't quite hit full potential and who can maybe be a top pairing guy for many years. It's a bit of a risk on talent, maybe, but it could bear big dividends too.

So could you offer Werenski 7.8M for 5 years, for example? It costs you a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, but if you bet on yourself to do well next year, then those could be late round picks and you fill THE major hole on your roster. Barring that, maybe you try Provorov or Sanheim for 6M a season. That costs you a first and a third but then you have a potential top 4 LHD, and you're probably not getting a guy who can fill that role in the next 2-3 years from your 1st or 3rd round picks anyways. Maybe the other team matches, but then they're stuffing money into those assets when they don't want to. To me, an offersheet like that makes more sense to us than one going after Marner or Point or so on.

So if I were MB, maybe I'd make a pitch for Werenski and then I'd go after Skinner as a UFA, following which I'd try to trade Drouin to clear up some cap space. I personally think a strategy like that makes us better than Marner at 10-13M per season.

I actually like this strategy cause first you not giving up roster players in a trade for that LHD and secondly we need a goal scorer and Skinner fits that bill perfectly. I am just not sure you can get werenski so I think my backup would be Provorov he has already played first pairing headed into the playoffs 2 years ago

Edited by campabee82
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1 minute ago, maas_art said:

Right and it was quickly matched.  LIke i said, there hasnt been any offer sheet movement  of players since Dustin Penner. 

I see I misunderstood I thought you meant no offer sheets had been signed in the last 12 years lol sorry

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With rumors of MB targeting Duchene, just wanted to point out something we've discussed at the time Columbus acquired him but that should be brought up again now, and that is that Columbus gives up their 2020 1st round pick IF they re-sign Duchene. They've already given up their 2019 first rounder. They've given up their 2nd rounders this year and next and in 2021 also. They've give up a bunch of late picks this year and their 3rd rounder next year too. Bottom line is that the 1st rounder in 2020 is probably an important asset to them.

Now circle back to Panarin and Bobrovsky. The rumors are that they're as good as gone to Florida. So if that's true, if you're Columbus, and you're losing two of your best players and you probably aren't a legit Cup contender next season, are you going all in on signing Duchene and giving up your only top draft pick for the next two years (which as Ottawa found out could be a top lottery pick)? I'd argue that would be a dumb move. So they sign Duchene... their roster would need a lot of work to move them into contention still and now they've given up their last key pick for a shot at being a middle-of-the-pack playoff team. IMO, the situation suggests it would be a bad move for Clb to sign Duchene because of that condition on the trade with Ottawa. If they had Panarin and Bob coming back, then it's a different story because maybe then they're competitive still and want to win now and sign Duchene. But with a revamp coming on their roster and the trade condition, I think the odds are Duchene should go to market. Nashville apparently wants him too but needs to shed cap to make it happen, so there's definitely a spot here for MB to be the front-runner in this whole thing. If he wants to be.

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Habs still have a couple of unsigned prospects from 2 years ago. Apparently defenceman Scott Walford recently removed the "Habs prospect" title from his social media accounts, suggesting he's been told by the team he won't be signed before this summer's deadline.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Habs still have a couple of unsigned prospects from 2 years ago. Apparently defenceman Scott Walford recently removed the "Habs prospect" title from his social media accounts, suggesting he's been told by the team he won't be signed before this summer's deadline.

It definitely should be an interesting summer with regards to contracts.  I think we have at least a few RFA we're likely to walk away from too.

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TVA Sports has brought up another name who plays for the Toronto Maple Leafs' that makes a lot more sense. 

The people at TVA Sports in Montreal think that Canadiens' general manager Marc Bergevin might try and get Kasperi Kapanen to sign one. 

Kapanen wouldn't cost anything close to what Marner would cost and the Canadiens could offer somewhere between $4.23-$6.63million a season which would only cost the Canadiens a first and a third round pick in compensation. 
The Leafs' 22 year old forward registered 20 goals and 24 assists this year but was a little quiet in the playoffs with only two points in seven games. 

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