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1 minute ago, kinot-2 said:

Darren Dreger reported on Twitter Thursday that the Leafs have made it known they will listen to offers for Kasperi Kapanen and Nazem Kadri, while there’s a strong sense that Connor Brown could go as well.

Pray they get fleeced

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2 minutes ago, booboo_mtl said:

Pray they get fleeced

The plot thickens: NHL on NBC analyst Pierre McGuire says that he believes that Mitch Marner will get an offer sheet, and the Leafs will have to decide what to value more; Marner or the four first round draft picks as compensation. :4224:

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I almost wonder if the Leafs would take the 4 firsts and run if they got that offer sheet... maybe depends on the team doing it, but if a squad like the Isles or Canucks or Sens came along and signed Marner to an OS, there's still a good chance at least one of those picks could be a lottery pick. You lose Marner, but you solve your cap issues, keep the rest of your team together, and gain 4 potentially-decent 1st rounders. I think the Leafs' problem will be if someone offers Marner 10.5M. Do you match and trade Kadri and Kapanen and lose Gardiner to free agency and decimate your roster? Or do you take two firsts and change, which is probably less than what you'd get in a trade?

As for Tavares, I actually don't think the Leafs made a bad move signing him. They took a shot at a Cup this year, it didn't pan out, but if they beat Boston in round 1, maybe they're champions right now. Even if they lose Marner for 4 firsts, then they've basically replaced Marner with Tavares (who is older but a center) and gained 4 firsts without giving up assets. I still think they're better off with Tavares than without him. If they keep Marner and JT and deal Kadri and Kapanen for peanuts or picks, they've still turned Kadri and Kapanen into Tavares and picks, which remains an upgrade in my view. This illustrates that you can't just buy a roster under the cap and that ongoing drafting success is the key to sustaining a winning team. But I don't think the Tavares signing was a bad move and I'd rather have the problem of having too many elite players than none at all.

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I hope someone comes in with a five year offer of $10.5 million. And Marner signs it. Gets $52.5 million and hits unrestricted free agency at 27 years old. Who knows what the expected payday for someone of Marner's caliber might be in five years from now. I bet he'd be interested in finding out.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

I almost wonder if the Leafs would take the 4 firsts and run if they got that offer sheet... maybe depends on the team doing it, but if a squad like the Isles or Canucks or Sens came along and signed Marner to an OS, there's still a good chance at least one of those picks could be a lottery pick. You lose Marner, but you solve your cap issues, keep the rest of your team together, and gain 4 potentially-decent 1st rounders. I think the Leafs' problem will be if someone offers Marner 10.5M. Do you match and trade Kadri and Kapanen and lose Gardiner to free agency and decimate your roster? Or do you take two firsts and change, which is probably less than what you'd get in a trade?

Theoretically you could then turn around and flip one of those 1st rounders to a rebuilding team for a vet too.  There's options.  Id be surprised if they let Marner go but like you said, will depend partially on who makes the offer.

Do you think Marner would sign a deal at $10.5? 

1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

As for Tavares, I actually don't think the Leafs made a bad move signing him. They took a shot at a Cup this year, it didn't pan out, but if they beat Boston in round 1, maybe they're champions right now. Even if they lose Marner for 4 firsts, then they've basically replaced Marner with Tavares (who is older but a center) and gained 4 firsts without giving up assets. I still think they're better off with Tavares than without him. If they keep Marner and JT and deal Kadri and Kapanen for peanuts or picks, they've still turned Kadri and Kapanen into Tavares and picks, which remains an upgrade in my view. This illustrates that you can't just buy a roster under the cap and that ongoing drafting success is the key to sustaining a winning team. But I don't think the Tavares signing was a bad move and I'd rather have the problem of having too many elite players than none at all.

No question they are better with Tavares than without him but are they better with Tavares than they would be if they'd used that cap space on making their D better?  Not so sure. 

In some ways I guess its like us (less money in play of course) on whether we should sign a guy like Duchene when we already have a ton of good forwards & our real hole is at left d.  

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

Theoretically you could then turn around and flip one of those 1st rounders to a rebuilding team for a vet too.  There's options.  Id be surprised if they let Marner go but like you said, will depend partially on who makes the offer.

Do you think Marner would sign a deal at $10.5? 

No question they are better with Tavares than without him but are they better with Tavares than they would be if they'd used that cap space on making their D better?  Not so sure. 

In some ways I guess its like us (less money in play of course) on whether we should sign a guy like Duchene when we already have a ton of good forwards & our real hole is at left d.  

1. If you believe the Leaf media, Marner isn't interested in signing an 8-year deal with Toronto. Rumors are that Dubas told Marner he would only give him 11M a year if he was signing for 8 years, and Marner said he doesn't want to go that long. That's a rumor, but if you believe it, then maybe Marner is banking on himself to up his value even further and banking on the cap going up substantially in the future. Like JR pointed out, Marner's also young enough that he can cash in now AND leave himself another chance at signing a long-term deal under the new CBA in the future. So maybe Marner's ideal contract is going higher on money and shorter on term. Maybe he wants 3-5 years at 11-12M. And maybe he's willing to settle for 10.5M if he gets the term he wants. If his options from Toronto are 8 years at 11M or 1 year at 11M, and his options from another team are 3-5 years at 10.56M, so that it keeps the compensation down and gives Marner his UFA status in a few years, then maybe just maybe he bites at that.

 

2. On JT, I think we also have to consider that we don't know what the alternatives were. Just about every team wanted Tavares, and he chose Toronto. Again, I think that's a hard thing to pass up. I don't think signing JT was the problem, I think it was what they did with everything else. Maybe they shouldn't have gone out after Muzzin. Maybe they should have traded Kadri once they signed JT. But they definitely had other options in terms of swapping out other players for a D man. If they had dealt Kadri for Dougie Hamilton, for example, are they not a better team with JT and Hamilton than they are with Kadri and Muzzin? For us, as much as I like the idea of getting Duchene for no assets given up, his potential contract is starting to get out of hand and he's not in the same ballpark as JT talent-wise IMO. But the premise would hold true for me if you could get Duchene for 8.5-9M a season... you can't just do that, but you could sign him and then turn around and trade a Drouin for a LHD and I think we'd be better off doing something like that than not signing Duchene...

 

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35 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

On JT, I think we also have to consider that we don't know what the alternatives were. Just about every team wanted Tavares, and he chose Toronto. Again, I think that's a hard thing to pass up. I don't think signing JT was the problem, I think it was what they did with everything else. Maybe they shouldn't have gone out after Muzzin. Maybe they should have traded Kadri once they signed JT. But they definitely had other options in terms of swapping out other players for a D man. If they had dealt Kadri for Dougie Hamilton, for example, are they not a better team with JT and Hamilton than they are with Kadri and Muzzin? For us, as much as I like the idea of getting Duchene for no assets given up, his potential contract is starting to get out of hand and he's not in the same ballpark as JT talent-wise IMO. But the premise would hold true for me if you could get Duchene for 8.5-9M a season... you can't just do that, but you could sign him and then turn around and trade a Drouin for a LHD and I think we'd be better off doing something like that than not signing Duchene...

 

I agree the problem wasn't he fact they signed Tavares, it was what they did after they signed Tavares. They had options to move Kadri, They had options to move Nylander. With Tavares and Mathews, They probably have one of the best one two punch in the NHL. And then next to that top wave you have Marner and Oreilly. 

Its like going into the draft you take the best player available and work from there. One of the best players in the game fell into their lap, it would have been an even bigger mistake not to take him. 

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2 minutes ago, habsisme said:

yeah I still think they should move Nylander, I don't know what they are doing

Nylander should have been moved last year before he tanked. Probably could have got the D-man they need. 

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8 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

This illustrates that you can't just buy a roster under the cap and that ongoing drafting success is the key to sustaining a winning team. 

I feel like this is the old way of thinking there was an article on sportsnet yesterday that outlined the exact opposite stating when you draft and develop multiple star players in the cap system you have a team of superstars all worth 8-11 mil like the Leafs where as if you trade for other teams players or sign FA you control the amount you spend on tallent. That's how the Blues won the cup this year they don't have many players they actually drafted and built a strong defensive team through trades.

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6 hours ago, campabee82 said:

I feel like this is the old way of thinking there was an article on sportsnet yesterday that outlined the exact opposite stating when you draft and develop multiple star players in the cap system you have a team of superstars all worth 8-11 mil like the Leafs where as if you trade for other teams players or sign FA you control the amount you spend on tallent. That's how the Blues won the cup this year they don't have many players they actually drafted and built a strong defensive team through trades.

i think it still starts with good drafting. And you're unlikely to hit a home run every time, hopefully you get a couple of doubles and singles too

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6 hours ago, campabee82 said:

I feel like this is the old way of thinking there was an article on sportsnet yesterday that outlined the exact opposite stating when you draft and develop multiple star players in the cap system you have a team of superstars all worth 8-11 mil like the Leafs where as if you trade for other teams players or sign FA you control the amount you spend on tallent. That's how the Blues won the cup this year they don't have many players they actually drafted and built a strong defensive team through trades.

Not sure who said they didn't draft their own players...

- David Perron, 1st round 2007 (even though he's come and gone)

- Alex Pietrangelo, 1st round 2008

- Jake Allen, 2nd round 2008

- Jaden Schwartz, 1st round 2010

- Vladimir Tarasenko, 1st round 2010

- Joel Edmundson, 2nd round 2011

- Jordan Binnington, 3rd round 2011

- Jordan Schmaltz, 1st round 2012

- Mackenzie MacEachern, 3rd round 2012

- Colton Parayko, 3rd round 2012

- Robby Fabbri, 1st round 2014

- Ivan Barbashev, 2nd round 2014

- Sammy Blais, 6th round 2014

- Vince Dunn, 2nd round 2015

- Jordan Kyrou, 2nd round 2016

- Robert Thomas, 1st round 2017

 

So I'd argue they have a fair number of their own draft picks who played for them this season and a good number of those who played significant roles. Further to that, they hit on a lot of their first round picks and in years when they didn't have first round picks, they hit on their 2nd rounders... they absolutely supplemented their roster with a few key pick-ups like O'Reilly and Schenn and so on, but their core was drafted for the most part. The point remains that they didn't simply build their roster by trades and free agency alone, and they have some cost-controlled contributors like Binnington, Dun, Thomas, and so on who allowed them to build their roster.

 

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9 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Not sure who said they didn't draft their own players...

- David Perron, 1st round 2007 (even though he's come and gone)

- Alex Pietrangelo, 1st round 2008

- Jake Allen, 2nd round 2008

- Jaden Schwartz, 1st round 2010

- Vladimir Tarasenko, 1st round 2010

- Joel Edmundson, 2nd round 2011

- Jordan Binnington, 3rd round 2011

- Jordan Schmaltz, 1st round 2012

- Mackenzie MacEachern, 3rd round 2012

- Colton Parayko, 3rd round 2012

- Robby Fabbri, 1st round 2014

- Ivan Barbashev, 2nd round 2014

- Sammy Blais, 6th round 2014

- Vince Dunn, 2nd round 2015

- Jordan Kyrou, 2nd round 2016

- Robert Thomas, 1st round 2017

 

So I'd argue they have a fair number of their own draft picks who played for them this season and a good number of those who played significant roles. Further to that, they hit on a lot of their first round picks and in years when they didn't have first round picks, they hit on their 2nd rounders... they absolutely supplemented their roster with a few key pick-ups like O'Reilly and Schenn and so on, but their core was drafted for the most part. The point remains that they didn't simply build their roster by trades and free agency alone, and they have some cost-controlled contributors like Binnington, Dun, Thomas, and so on who allowed them to build their roster.

 

The Blues also don't have those 11-12 million "superstars" that all teams and fans want. I would also say even though they did win the cup this season I would be very surprised if next pre-season they are the cup favorite. You do have to have the correct combination. So going after the superstar players (which fans love) isn't always the answer. It's great to have game breakers and flashy players that can bring you out of your seat , but a solid roster of team players is great also. I would rather have strong depth than 3 or 4 superstars that ate all the cap room and not enough depth around them. That is where the tough balance of entry level mid level contracts that all can contribute comes into play. In the cap era the Hawks probably come the closest to have had a dynasty 3 cups 6 years. Pitts 2 in 3 years.

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With Dubas putting it out there that he won't commit to matching any offer sheets to his players,,, that pretty much opens up the door for GM's to seriously consider one this year. If MB believes this is our window,,, then he needs to throw his hat in there on Marner. Even if it costs us those 1st rounders, i would expect a guy like Marner makes us a playoff team, seriously reducing any chance of those being lottery picks.

Five years at whatever it takes.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Not sure who said they didn't draft their own players...

- David Perron, 1st round 2007 (even though he's come and gone)

- Alex Pietrangelo, 1st round 2008

- Jake Allen, 2nd round 2008

- Jaden Schwartz, 1st round 2010

- Vladimir Tarasenko, 1st round 2010

- Joel Edmundson, 2nd round 2011

- Jordan Binnington, 3rd round 2011

- Jordan Schmaltz, 1st round 2012

- Mackenzie MacEachern, 3rd round 2012

- Colton Parayko, 3rd round 2012

- Robby Fabbri, 1st round 2014

- Ivan Barbashev, 2nd round 2014

- Sammy Blais, 6th round 2014

- Vince Dunn, 2nd round 2015

- Jordan Kyrou, 2nd round 2016

- Robert Thomas, 1st round 2017

 

So I'd argue they have a fair number of their own draft picks who played for them this season and a good number of those who played significant roles. Further to that, they hit on a lot of their first round picks and in years when they didn't have first round picks, they hit on their 2nd rounders... they absolutely supplemented their roster with a few key pick-ups like O'Reilly and Schenn and so on, but their core was drafted for the most part. The point remains that they didn't simply build their roster by trades and free agency alone, and they have some cost-controlled contributors like Binnington, Dun, Thomas, and so on who allowed them to build their roster.

 

I will post the article if I can find it again but didn't realize the Blues had that many players they drafted. I agree the draft is important but you can't solely rely on building through the draft was my point but have to use every tool available whether it's the draft, FA, Offersheets or trades to build your team.

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12 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

but you could sign him and then turn around and trade a Drouin for a LHD and I think we'd be better off doing something like that than not signing Duchene...

 

Sure in isolation signing Duchene and trading Drouin for a LD would make us better on paper.    Getting a C vs a LW (because you could still trade Drouin for the LD regardless) ... has ramifications on the rest of the lineup this year and going forward.

Domi/Ducheme/Danault/JK/Poehling/Suzuki//Thompson

Who plays on wing?  Can they play on wing?  Will they be as effective on the wing?

Do you develop your C prospects as C or winger? Do Poehling/Suzuki play in AHL? You might as well send JK down too because it makes no sense to play him on the 4th line.   And that would persist for 2-3 years because your C's are Danault, Domi and Duchene.  

I know everyone thinks "well we'll just role 4 lines" ... but that is not realistic.   Some of those lines will definitely get less ice time, less sheltered starts for developing prospects etc ... its just how it will work as you want to maximize your top talent's ice time.    Signing another C will just cause roster issues none of us will approve of and ultimately derail the development of our prospects.

We finally have 3-4 strong young C's in Domi, Suzuki, Poehling and JK and last thing we want to do is force them to take a back seat to an over paid UFA.   I think in 2-3 years we are much better as Domi, JK, Poehling as the top 3 C's (wtih Suzuki on wing as he has already had success there) than signing Duchene and then trying to figure out what do with the JK/Suzuki/Poehling ... and that includes from a cap perspective as well.   They'll all still be on ELC or on cap friendly bridge deal letting us spend to where we haven't drafted well or plug holes where prospects didn't pan out.

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2 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

Sure in isolation signing Duchene and trading Drouin for a LD would make us better on paper.    Getting a C vs a LW (because you could still trade Drouin for the LD regardless) ... has ramifications on the rest of the lineup this year and going forward.

Domi/Ducheme/Danault/JK/Poehling/Suzuki//Thompson

Who plays on wing?  Can they play on wing?  Will they be as effective on the wing?

Do you develop your C prospects as C or winger? Do Poehling/Suzuki play in AHL? You might as well send JK down too because it makes no sense to play him on the 4th line.   And that would persist for 2-3 years because your C's are Danault, Domi and Duchene.  

I know everyone thinks "well we'll just role 4 lines" ... but that is not realistic.   Some of those lines will definitely get less ice time, less sheltered starts for developing prospects etc ... its just how it will work as you want to maximize your top talent's ice time.    Signing another C will just cause roster issues none of us will approve of and ultimately derail the development of our prospects.

We finally have 3-4 strong young C's in Domi, Suzuki, Poehling and JK and last thing we want to do is force them to take a back seat to an over paid UFA.   I think in 2-3 years we are much better as Domi, JK, Poehling as the top 3 C's (wtih Suzuki on wing as he has already had success there) than signing Duchene and then trying to figure out what do with the JK/Suzuki/Poehling ... and that includes from a cap perspective as well.   They'll all still be on ELC or on cap friendly bridge deal letting us spend to where we haven't drafted well or plug holes where prospects didn't pan out.

Or you could do

Domi-Duchene-Gallagher

Tatar-Kotkaniemi-Suzuki 

Drouin-Danault-Lehkonen

Weal-Peohling-Armia 

Domi and Suzuki both played wing with success and Weal and Lehkonen can play pretty well anywhere there is so much versatility with our lineup that adding a player of Duchenes ilk only improves the team and creates stronger competition none of this hurts development or the team. If say Domi and Suzuki hadn't ever played wing or if Lehkonen and Weal weren't so versatileI would agree with your assessment but fact is they have and are so it's a moot point it we do get Duchene.

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5 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

Or you could do

Domi-Duchene-Gallagher

Tatar-Kotkaniemi-Suzuki 

Drouin-Danault-Lehkonen

Weal-Peohling-Armia 

Domi and Suzuki both played wing with success and Weal and Lehkonen can play pretty well anywhere there is so much versatility with our lineup that adding a player of Duchenes ilk only improves the team and creates stronger competition none of this hurts development or the team. If say Domi and Suzuki hadn't ever played wing or if Lehkonen and Weal weren't so versatileI would agree with your assessment but fact is they have and are so it's a moot point it we do get Duchene.

I will also say that IF I had a choice I would offersheet a RFA like Point, Conner Liane or Marner and give up the picks over signing Duchene

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5 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

I will also say that IF I had a choice I would offersheet a RFA like Point, Conner Liane or Marner and give up the picks over signing Duchene

I'm of the same mind set ... if you get a forward, it should be a winger.     Then that gives you the option of trading one of our other wingers for a LD.

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While meeting with the media before the draft on Thursday, Bergevin revealed where he stands with Benn. 

Bergevin told the media that it's"more than likely Jordie Benn will be a free agent on July 1st".

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1 minute ago, kinot-2 said:

While meeting with the media before the draft on Thursday, Bergevin revealed where he stands with Benn. 

Bergevin told the media that it's"more than likely Jordie Benn will be a free agent on July 1st".

As much as I like Benn, it is time to move on ... game is changing and he doesn't have the speed to keep up.   Not mention we have Weber, Petry and Juulsen on the right side with Folin signed as well.

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42 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

I will also say that IF I had a choice I would offersheet a RFA like Point, Conner Liane or Marner and give up the picks over signing Duchene

I think Laine is a guy who's not getting enough talk as an offersheet potential target. I think he could be had for something in the 8-9M range, and the compensation wouldn't necessarily be crazy. I would pass on Marner or anyone else where the offersheet is over 10.5M and costs you 4 first-rounders... even though Point or Marner is a better player for us than Duchene, I think it would be not so great to think of it as you could have had Duchene and 4 firsts or Point/Marner.

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5 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

I think Laine is a guy who's not getting enough talk as an offersheet potential target. I think he could be had for something in the 8-9M range, and the compensation wouldn't necessarily be crazy. I would pass on Marner or anyone else where the offersheet is over 10.5M and costs you 4 first-rounders... even though Point or Marner is a better player for us than Duchene, I think it would be not so great to think of it as you could have had Duchene and 4 firsts or Point/Marner.

agreed it would be better to have Duchene and 4 1st's but you could also go 5 years at 10.5 mil on either and it would put pressure on both organizations to take the compensation of 2 1st's a 2nd and a 3rd over matching as they don't have the space and would either Mariner or Point really hold out for .5 Mil probably not.

Edited by campabee82
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8 minutes ago, olddude said:

According to Bergevin he's not doing anything big in the free agent market, so all the rumours will be just that. https://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/what-the-puck-bergevin-pours-cold-water-on-canadiens-fans-dreams

Happy to hear, I hope we can make a nice trade though, use up that cap space on an expiring deal or get a a nice prospect for taking on a bad contract that is only 1 or 2 years

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