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2019-20 If i were GM


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2 hours ago, 26NCounting said:

If I was GM I would fire our entire scouting staff, lets face it when was the last time an actual draft pick of our turned out as anticipated.  We got a steal and no brain er in Caufield last year but otherwise all the picks have been duds for the last 10 yrs IMO.

Honestly we're not that different than any other team. Drafting has just gotten so much better over the last 20 years. You dont get Pavel Datsyuk type players in the 6th round anymore unless you get hella lucky, because every team has scouts all over the globe.  

Its not the scouting staff's fault that Lefebvre and co seemed incapable of developing a player. We finally have a strong looking staff in the minors who seem to actually be able to help young players rather than regress them.  

Meanwhile, in the last 10 years we drafted Kotkaniemi, Caufield, Sergachev (again, not the scouting fault that he was traded away), Galchenyuk (an abysmally bad draft year - he's still the 2nd highest scoring player from that draft), Romanov, Lehkonen, Norlinder, Ylonen, what looks to be 2 draft steals in Gallagher and Primeau, plus a number of good supporting players like Harris, Brook, Fleury and others that should be, at worst, NHL regulars.  

Not many teams, unless they are getting tons of top 10 picks, can say they have substantially better drafting than that.  

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11 hours ago, BornToBeAHab said:

What would take to get Andstanieu and pujariev from Edmonton .sorry for the spelling .

Speculation on my part but AA will most likely not be qualified by Edm, if they do it’s only because they gave 2 2nd for him and may not want to admit the epic fail on their part. As for Pujarvi, that’s a wild card. I’d expect edm is asking for a first or equivalent. Again I’m speculating 

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7 minutes ago, Windoe said:

TOR desperately needs top RD. We have 2.

Petry for Nylander?

Weber for Tavares?

 

At present, those two players don't fill our biggest need. We did need centers, but if we're planning on using Suzuki-Kotkaniemi-Danault-Evans down the middle, then acquiring another center means moving someone to the wing or playing our existing centers on lower lines or trading one of them. I'm not against any of those under the right circumstances, but all that to say that center is not our biggest need right now. We have very little at RHD after Weber and Petry, so there's no sense making a big hole at that position to add to a position we don't need urgent help at. If we're dealing one of Weber or Petry, it's because we've added another top 4 RHD (e.g a Pietrangelo by signing or a Dumab by trade or so on) and if we're dealing one of them, our two bigger needs to address are top-pairing LHD and top-line scoring winger. I'd love to have Nylander here, but we also have a limited set of assets to trade and if we're dealing Weber or Petry, we have to be smart about addressing a need we have, not adding a luxury.

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Thank you BigTed, your comments got me thinking, maybe some teams are in a position to fill holes, while other teams are not there yet and need to focus on raising overall asset value.

For example, if MTL trades Petry for Nylander, MTL makes a hole at RD and fills a wing hole, so hole-wise its a wash or even worse if you value RD higher than wings...BUT MTL improves their net asset value by adding Nylander and subtracting Petry.  So TOR pays an asset value premium to fill their hole.  

A few years ago, TOR needed to raise their overall asset value which they did, and now they are in a position to fill the holes around those assets.  MTL may be there too now, finally.  But, if MTL is not there quite yet, then MTL could raise their overall asset value by giving other teams what they need to fill their holes in exchange for more value.

That is to question, is MTL's biggest need at this time to fill holes, or is it to increase overall asset value still.  We seem to be very near that line, which is exciting.  MTL could get some decent value by providing other teams with the pieces they feel they need to fill their holes, ie they may overpay, substantially, to fill that last hole they think will help them move forward.  MTL seems to be in a solid spot to capitalize on that.

MTL did this with Pacioretty when we traded him...Vegas filled their 1LW hole, but we got more overall asset value in the trade.  Other hole-filling players we have for similar trades like this include: Price 1G, Weber Top 2 RD, Petry Top 2 RD, Gallagher Top 6 RW, Domi 2C, Danault 2 Way C.  I don't think MB is trading Price, Weber or Gallagher, but Petry, Domi and maybe even Danault, all of which can fill a missing hole for other teams, might fetch more overall value in return.
 

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A strategy for Bergevin – yours to dissect and agree, disagree or add to it

Pre-Draft (now)

I am floating all pieces that I don’t consider part of the long term core – Domi or Danualt, Kulak, Mete, Poehling, Armia, Byron, even Chiarot. Looking for scoring help, draft picks or prospects or even a RHD of strength. I am not going to trade any first round or 2nd round picks, or Caufield. Tatar, Petry and especially Weber would be difficult to trade due to their cap hits to another team so floating those players is unrealistic. No single trade or blockbuster is going to put us into top 4 contending status, as my youth of Suzuki, KK, Romanov, have too many question marks. I would love Laine but not going to mortgage the future on someone with only a 1 year contract and RFA status, so if I can get him for current pieces plus 2021 picks then yes. If Kapanen was worth a 1st round pick from Pittsburgh to Toronto, then Domi or Danualt are worth a top 15 pick plus a Puljujarvi or Bouchard/ Athanasiou. Or Columbus pick plus Josh Anderson/Foudy. Or Detroit #32 pick plus Mantha. What cap stretched teams can I exploit like acquiring Steen’s contract from St. Louis and buying him out in exchange for their 26th overall pick, or something similar from the Islanders plus RHD Noah Dobson.

Draft

If we can’t get another top pick, then I will try to trade up some 2nd round picks plus some pieces above during the draft. #16 pick will get a potential scorer like Mercer, Holloway, Gunler, Jarvis to compliment my long term core in 2 years. I don’t need the injury risk playmaker Lapierre so not yielding to that media pressure. 2nd round picks at 47, 48 or 60 will yield more wingers with size and scoring help and I can pick up some RHD in the 3rd or 4th round. I don’t count on much help in rounds #5-#7.

Free Agents

Not convinced there are any quick fixes of rejected or overpriced players that will vault us into top 4 contending status now or for next year. The risk of our young core is too big to “go all in now”. Monitor the Taylor Hall situation (5 year term maximum), and possibly Mike Hoffman but cost and term are the biggest issues. Offer Sheets could be a consideration depending on the draft success, and the value that is present. No pressing need to buy out Alzner this year for a $700K cap hit saving.

Post-draft during the season

Have to evaluate Juulsen /Fleury /Brook- are they at all ready to step up to assume any more responsibility to a #3#4 pairing? Maybe the coaching staff knows it now, so I have to make a decision on extending Petry who is 33 in December. I would offer likely no more than a 3 year term. Price and Weber likely have 3 years before their performance shows serious decline, so I need some veterans to compliment my emerging new core.

Tatar 30 in December – he likes it here but do I include him in the “old core” and re-sign for a couple of years, or does he have better value in a trade. Gallagher – 29 in May. I need to convince him that we are on a winning path and that he is vital. He will want a 5 year term and as a heart and soul leader, he is probably worth that investment.

Depending on whether Domi is traded, need to make a decision on Danualt – 28 in February. Does he offer value for the money vs term and risk for what will likely be a 3rd line centre depending on emergence of Suzuki, KK  and Evans – I suspect there are better values so likely will shop him during the season if he cannot be shopped above.

Primeau vs. Allen – Can Primeau ascend to our goalie of the future?

We are done with Hudon, Belzile, Folin, Ouellett – cut them loose

Prospect Pool

Need to make sure Harris, Struble, Norlinder as LHD depth continue to progress with Caufield likely to play in Europe. Similarly with Ylonen, Hillis and Evans.

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On 9/20/2020 at 3:14 AM, Windoe said:

Caufield+Domi+Mete for Laine

Drouin-Suzuki-Laine
Tatar-Danault-Gallagher
Kovalchuk-Kotkaniemi-Armia
Lehkonen-Evans/Weal-Byron

Romanov-Weber
Edmundson-Petry
Chiarot-Kulak

Price
Allen

Domi+Mete+Juulsen+2020 #1+Hudon or Byron

Drouin+Mete+Juulsen+2020 #1+Hudon or Byron

I like the second one better.  You can add extra draft picks or swap out players as needed.

Knowing Winnipeg needs #2 center, and a few defensemen plus needing to keep below the cap. I know Drouin isn't a center, but maybe they see a higher ceiling?
Hope so. & they probably will not be able to or will not want to sign him for 9mil.

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The more I think on it, the more i think that Danault is the guy I would move if i was GM.  Here's why:

Our centre depth is basically  Suzuki, JK, Danault, Domi, Evans Poehling.

To me, Suzuki/JK are nearly untouchable. It would honestly have to be something impossible like Dahlin for JK that would even make me consider moving one.
Evans and Poehling are pretty low value. Sure they might be part of a bigger deal but personally I HATE 'throwing in' prospects in deals.  Why? see Houle, Rejean.

 

So that leaves Domi & Danault - who, incidentally are our most experienced centres.

Danault is older but by no means too old. He'll likely be looking for a a 4-5 year deal which would be honestly fine, at the end of it he'd still likely be totally effective.  He's a more complete player than Domi but that also means he likely has more value.  He's also UFA next summer and if we dont have the space for him, he'll probably walk. Never like loosing assets for nothing.

With Suzuki, JK, Evans and Poehling you have 4 guys who are all defensively responsible, so you dont absolutely 'need' Danault's 2 way game. You can absorb Domi's lack of defense (which is overblown imho). I just think with the centres we have you dont really 'need' a shutdown line.  When they hit their full stride you should be able to line up JK or Suzuki's line against anyone in the league.  

If we can move Danault for a RW scorer, Id be on that in a heartbeat.  I assume there would have to be a package but I think Danault is heavily valued around the league, especially among teams that value possession.   I could see a team with an elite #1 centre but not much else, giving up quality on the wings to get danault as their #2.  I wouldnt lose sleep if we moved Domi instead but I do think that Domi would be more accepting of a 3rd line role than Danault.    You could do something like this:

Drouin - Suzuki - newly acquired scoring RW
Tatar - JK - Gallagher
Lehks - Domi - Armia
Poehling - Evans - Byron (or play Poehling at centre, Evans at RW and Byron at LW)

 


 


 

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4 hours ago, maas_art said:

The more I think on it, the more i think that Danault is the guy I would move if i was GM.  Here's why:

Our centre depth is basically  Suzuki, JK, Danault, Domi, Evans Poehling.

To me, Suzuki/JK are nearly untouchable. It would honestly have to be something impossible like Dahlin for JK that would even make me consider moving one.
Evans and Poehling are pretty low value. Sure they might be part of a bigger deal but personally I HATE 'throwing in' prospects in deals.  Why? see Houle, Rejean.

 

So that leaves Domi & Danault - who, incidentally are our most experienced centres.

Danault is older but by no means too old. He'll likely be looking for a a 4-5 year deal which would be honestly fine, at the end of it he'd still likely be totally effective.  He's a more complete player than Domi but that also means he likely has more value.  He's also UFA next summer and if we dont have the space for him, he'll probably walk. Never like loosing assets for nothing.

With Suzuki, JK, Evans and Poehling you have 4 guys who are all defensively responsible, so you dont absolutely 'need' Danault's 2 way game. You can absorb Domi's lack of defense (which is overblown imho). I just think with the centres we have you dont really 'need' a shutdown line.  When they hit their full stride you should be able to line up JK or Suzuki's line against anyone in the league.  

If we can move Danault for a RW scorer, Id be on that in a heartbeat.  I assume there would have to be a package but I think Danault is heavily valued around the league, especially among teams that value possession.   I could see a team with an elite #1 centre but not much else, giving up quality on the wings to get danault as their #2.  I wouldnt lose sleep if we moved Domi instead but I do think that Domi would be more accepting of a 3rd line role than Danault.    You could do something like this:

Drouin - Suzuki - newly acquired scoring RW
Tatar - JK - Gallagher
Lehks - Domi - Armia
Poehling - Evans - Byron (or play Poehling at centre, Evans at RW and Byron at LW)

 


 


 

I like these ideas, and I agree Danault is valued higher than Domi, and would fit great behind an elite 1C.

That allows us to keep our RFA player (Domi), play him in the 3C or 2C hole as needed, move an expiring asset while we can, and reduce the number of pending UFAs we have to deal with.

I think MB is approaching his UFAs and seeing who he can extend (like Petry) on team friendly deals, and if he can't extend you, then he has to consider trading you before you reach UFA.

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On 9/28/2020 at 0:23 PM, maas_art said:

The more I think on it, the more i think that Danault is the guy I would move if i was GM.  Here's why:

Our centre depth is basically  Suzuki, JK, Danault, Domi, Evans Poehling.

To me, Suzuki/JK are nearly untouchable. It would honestly have to be something impossible like Dahlin for JK that would even make me consider moving one.
Evans and Poehling are pretty low value. Sure they might be part of a bigger deal but personally I HATE 'throwing in' prospects in deals.  Why? see Houle, Rejean.

 

So that leaves Domi & Danault - who, incidentally are our most experienced centres.

Danault is older but by no means too old. He'll likely be looking for a a 4-5 year deal which would be honestly fine, at the end of it he'd still likely be totally effective.  He's a more complete player than Domi but that also means he likely has more value.  He's also UFA next summer and if we dont have the space for him, he'll probably walk. Never like loosing assets for nothing.

With Suzuki, JK, Evans and Poehling you have 4 guys who are all defensively responsible, so you dont absolutely 'need' Danault's 2 way game. You can absorb Domi's lack of defense (which is overblown imho). I just think with the centres we have you dont really 'need' a shutdown line.  When they hit their full stride you should be able to line up JK or Suzuki's line against anyone in the league.  

If we can move Danault for a RW scorer, Id be on that in a heartbeat.  I assume there would have to be a package but I think Danault is heavily valued around the league, especially among teams that value possession.   I could see a team with an elite #1 centre but not much else, giving up quality on the wings to get Danault as their #2.  I wouldn't lose sleep if we moved Domi instead but I do think that Domi would be more accepting of a 3rd line role than Danault.    You could do something like this:

Drouin - Suzuki - newly acquired scoring RW
Tatar - JK - Gallagher
Lehks - Domi - Armia
Poehling - Evans - Byron (or play Poehling at centre, Evans at RW and Byron at LW)

 


 


 

That reasoning makes perfect sense, and I'm hoping Bergy is on the same page. It may be why, he is holding off on finalizing a contract with Domi & Danault. It may come right down to their pick at 16th, before we can hope for this trade for a right winger.  Here's hoping..........

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Alzner has been place on waivers for the purpose of buying him out. I get the feeling MB is working on something big. Why would we buyout Alzner this year otherwise? We don't need space and his cap hit this year doesn't affect our current roster this year. The cap hit to buy him out this year would be as much as burying him in the AHL so if it isn't money I get the feeling it has more to do with needing a roster spot.

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22 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

Alzner has been place on waivers for the purpose of buying him out. I get the feeling MB is working on something big. Why would we buyout Alzner this year otherwise? We don't need space and his cap hit this year doesn't affect our current roster this year. The cap hit to buy him out this year would be as much as burying him in the AHL so if it isn't money I get the feeling it has more to do with needing a roster spot.

no in terms of the cap hit, buying him out this year creates more space for next year than it would have been if we bought him out next year. It makes sense to buy him out this year no matter how you slice it

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1 hour ago, habsisme said:

no in terms of the cap hit, buying him out this year creates more space for next year than it would have been if we bought him out next year. It makes sense to buy him out this year no matter how you slice it

This year it is 3.9 Mil this year and 1.9 next year followed by 2 years at .833 next year it would have been 1.5 ish for 2 years

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9 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

This year it is 3.9 Mil this year and 1.9 next year followed by 2 years at .833 next year it would have been 1.5 ish for 2 years

no it wouldnt have, i tried it on the buyout calculator. it was always better for next year to buy him out now. Unfortunately, I cant find alzner on the calculator anymore

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Now that we traded Domi for Anderson, I think MB is done. I think the smart thing he's doing is not signing anyone unless its to a team-friendly contract. If we're not in the playoffs next year, I think he will move his expiring contracts. If we look good he'll sign them in-season

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48 minutes ago, habsisme said:

no it wouldnt have, i tried it on the buyout calculator. it was always better for next year to buy him out now. Unfortunately, I cant find alzner on the calculator anymore

I think you may be mis understanding what I am saying.

2020 buyout break down

9.35 / 4 years = 3.9 Mil 20-21, 1.9 Mil 21-22, .833 22-23 and .833 23-24

2021 break down 

4.675 / 2 years = 2.337ish (my bad I miscalculated) for 20-21 and 21-22. 

By buying him out this year we add 2 additional years to the buyout and have a higher cap hit now.

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4 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

I think you may be mis understanding what I am saying.

2020 buyout break down

9.35 / 4 years = 3.9 Mil 20-21, 1.9 Mil 21-22, .833 22-23 and .833 23-24

2021 break down 

4.675 / 2 years = 2.337ish (my bad I miscalculated) for 20-21 and 21-22. 

By buying him out this year we add 2 additional years to the buyout and have a higher cap hit now.

i dont think it would 2.337, it would have been something like 3.9 and 833. But the point is not to have cap space this year (we have enough) its to maximize the cap space next year cause we have a bunch of free agents to sign (unless we have another bad season and trade them at the deadline)

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