H_T_L

2019-20 State Of The Habs

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Posted (edited)

Not a perfect night but it's still conceivable that Chicago, Buffalo, Jersey, and even Anaheim could overtake us in the standings. Finishing in the bottom 5 would increase our lottery odds and give us a really good shot at guys like Byfield, Stützle, Rossi, Raymond, Drysdale, or Rossi. That's a pretty good consolation prize for an otherwise dissappointing season I'd say.

I've also just noticed that New Jersey could end up with 3 first rounders in this year's draft, possibly all three of them within the top 15. Good for them, not so good for us I guess.

Edited by ChiLla
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2 hours ago, ChiLla said:

Not a perfect night but it's still conceivable that Chicago, Buffalo, Jersey, and even Anaheim could overtake us in the standings. Finishing in the bottom 5 would increase our lottery odds and give us a really good shot at guys like Byfield, Stützle, Rossi, Raymond, Drysdale, or Rossi. That's a pretty good consolation prize for an otherwise dissappointing season I'd say.

I've also just noticed that New Jersey could end up with 3 first rounders in this year's draft, possibly all three of them within the top 15. Good for them, not so good for us I guess.

Yeah I wouldn't have minded having a second first this year especially seeing as 5 other teams now have multiple firsts. Rangers have 2, Sens have 3, Devils have 3, Ducks have 2 and wild have 2. That's 7 additional 1st round picks we missed out on this year

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Looking at the schedule right now I can easily see us in the midst of another 8 game losing skid depending on how the Buffalo game goes. If we lose that we will be at 4 then we have our west coast swing which is usually bad then the Avs in game 8

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2 hours ago, ChiLla said:

Not a perfect night but it's still conceivable that Chicago, Buffalo, Jersey, and even Anaheim could overtake us in the standings. Finishing in the bottom 5 would increase our lottery odds and give us a really good shot at guys like Byfield, Stützle, Rossi, Raymond, Drysdale, or Rossi. That's a pretty good consolation prize for an otherwise dissappointing season I'd say.

I've also just noticed that New Jersey could end up with 3 first rounders in this year's draft, possibly all three of them within the top 15. Good for them, not so good for us I guess.

Realistically I am hoping for a bottom 8 finish - the draft boards have a pretty tight consensus on the top 9 picks (Perfetti, Holtz , Lundell - to your mix) then there’s a small quality drop off before some pretty good choices in Round 2 

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2 hours ago, ChiLla said:

Not a perfect night but it's still conceivable that Chicago, Buffalo, Jersey, and even Anaheim could overtake us in the standings. Finishing in the bottom 5 would increase our lottery odds and give us a really good shot at guys like Byfield, Stützle, Rossi, Raymond, Drysdale, or Rossi. That's a pretty good consolation prize for an otherwise dissappointing season I'd say.

I've also just noticed that New Jersey could end up with 3 first rounders in this year's draft, possibly all three of them within the top 15. Good for them, not so good for us I guess.

I think if Vancouver doesn't make the post-season, the pick switches to next year... I suppose that could be even BETTER for NJ though. I wish we had three picks in the top-15.

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23 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

Looking at the schedule right now I can easily see us in the midst of another 8 game losing skid depending on how the Buffalo game goes. If we lose that we will be at 4 then we have our west coast swing which is usually bad then the Avs in game 8

I mean, why NOT go for three of the worst losing streaks in team history in one year?! Do we have enough games left to match or beat or worst losing streak in team history (12 games)?

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Posted (edited)

2 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I mean, why NOT go for three of the worst losing streaks in team history in one year?! Do we have enough games left to match or beat or worst losing streak in team history (12 games)?

I mean yeah we could IF we lost the next 9 we could tie it and we would still have 2 more games to go. The question marks are can Buffalo beat us twice, can we get no wins on the west coast trip and can Chicago beat us 

Edited by campabee82
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2 hours ago, campabee82 said:

I mean yeah we could IF we lost the next 9 we could tie it and we would still have 2 more games to go. The question marks are can Buffalo beat us twice, can we get no wins on the west coast trip and can Chicago beat us 

I also think its pretty unlikely.  

There's no real doubt that most of the players look like they are just 'going through the motions' - they are pros, they know they have to come to work, but to a man i bet you every single one of them are just playing out the season.  If you could press a button like in the movie click, i bet they would all choose that option - it cant be fun for them.

That said, there's still guys like Gallagher that will not stop and guys like Evans, Hudon, Ouellet and even Suzuki who are trying to impress, earn positions, contracts etc for next year.  So you have to think there's at least some wins in there.
 

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Posted (edited)

37 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I also think its pretty unlikely.  

There's no real doubt that most of the players look like they are just 'going through the motions' - they are pros, they know they have to come to work, but to a man i bet you every single one of them are just playing out the season.  If you could press a button like in the movie click, i bet they would all choose that option - it cant be fun for them.

That said, there's still guys like Gallagher that will not stop and guys like Evans, Hudon, Ouellet and even Suzuki who are trying to impress, earn positions, contracts etc for next year.  So you have to think there's at least some wins in there.
 

Exactly my feeling is we go maybe go 5-4-2 over the next 11 wins being Tor. Buf. once S.J. Chi. And L.A. 

Edited by campabee82
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11 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

Exactly my feeling is we go maybe go 5-4-2 over the next 11 wins being Tor. Buf. once S.J. Chi. And L.A. 

Yeah probably pretty close to that.  Ideally id love if we did a little worse - but on the bright side we have played more games than many of the teams chasing us.  Right now we look like we're a 7-9 finisher but its not inconceivable that we end up behind only detroit, ottawa, LA and SJ.   Bottom 5 would be a real silver lining after this mess of a season.

 

 

Screen shot 2020-03-11 at 12.34.33 PM.png

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30 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Yeah probably pretty close to that.  Ideally id love if we did a little worse - but on the bright side we have played more games than many of the teams chasing us.  Right now we look like we're a 7-9 finisher but its not inconceivable that we end up behind only detroit, ottawa, LA and SJ.   Bottom 5 would be a real silver lining after this mess of a season.

 

 

Screen shot 2020-03-11 at 12.34.33 PM.png

Yeah I wouldnt min pickin 5th caise the loest your going to go in the lottery is 7th and in a draft like this one that could be huge 

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Defensive mistakes in the second period.  

 

 

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I’m clearly biased but I want Stützle. I’d settle for Drysdale though :D

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3 hours ago, ChiLla said:

I’m clearly biased but I want Stützle. I’d settle for Drysdale though :D

Honestly i dont think you can go far wrong with any of the guys listed in the top 7 or 8. Watch us pick someone everyone else has at 30th because of his size and truculence. :P

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6 hours ago, maas_art said:

Honestly i dont think you can go far wrong with any of the guys listed in the top 7 or 8. Watch us pick someone everyone else has at 30th because of his size and truculence. :P

No doubt, the guys ranked between #2-#8 are all projected to become pretty good players, even though there seems to be a bit of a drop-off between Byfield and the rest of the pack. But hey, we're talking about projections, there will be surprises and busts for sure. Every draft has them.

You're joking but I'm a little torn on Rossi because of size. It's silly because scouts seem to think he can be a legit 1st line center in the NHL but at some point we'll have to ask ourselves how many smaller guys we want to have on the roster. Caufield, Domi, Gallagher, Byron – and to a lesser degree Tatar and Suzuki – are all smaller players and similar in a sense that they're never going to overpower an NHL defender. You add Rossi to the mix and suddenly you're looking at a top six with 5/6 guys being 5'10 or smaller, which isn't going to work IMO. To be clear, I'm absolutely not saying we should draft for size again (McCarron) but good teams have a good mix of forwards capable of doing different things on the ice. Even though it has changed a lot, hockey still is a very physical game and if Jonathan Drouin is one of the bigger scoring forwards on your team, that's going to be a problem I think. Especially in the playoffs.

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5 hours ago, ChiLla said:

No doubt, the guys ranked between #2-#8 are all projected to become pretty good players, even though there seems to be a bit of a drop-off between Byfield and the rest of the pack. But hey, we're talking about projections, there will be surprises and busts for sure. Every draft has them.

You're joking but I'm a little torn on Rossi because of size. It's silly because scouts seem to think he can be a legit 1st line center in the NHL but at some point we'll have to ask ourselves how many smaller guys we want to have on the roster. Caufield, Domi, Gallagher, Byron – and to a lesser degree Tatar and Suzuki – are all smaller players and similar in a sense that they're never going to overpower an NHL defender. You add Rossi to the mix and suddenly you're looking at a top six with 5/6 guys being 5'10 or smaller, which isn't going to work IMO. To be clear, I'm absolutely not saying we should draft for size again (McCarron) but good teams have a good mix of forwards capable of doing different things on the ice. Even though it has changed a lot, hockey still is a very physical game and if Jonathan Drouin is one of the bigger scoring forwards on your team, that's going to be a problem I think. Especially in the playoffs.

 

5 hours ago, ChiLla said:

No doubt, the guys ranked between #2-#8 are all projected to become pretty good players, even though there seems to be a bit of a drop-off between Byfield and the rest of the pack. But hey, we're talking about projections, there will be surprises and busts for sure. Every draft has them.

You're joking but I'm a little torn on Rossi because of size. It's silly because scouts seem to think he can be a legit 1st line center in the NHL but at some point we'll have to ask ourselves how many smaller guys we want to have on the roster. Caufield, Domi, Gallagher, Byron – and to a lesser degree Tatar and Suzuki – are all smaller players and similar in a sense that they're never going to overpower an NHL defender. You add Rossi to the mix and suddenly you're looking at a top six with 5/6 guys being 5'10 or smaller, which isn't going to work IMO. To be clear, I'm absolutely not saying we should draft for size again (McCarron) but good teams have a good mix of forwards capable of doing different things on the ice. Even though it has changed a lot, hockey still is a very physical game and if Jonathan Drouin is one of the bigger scoring forwards on your team, that's going to be a problem I think. Especially in the playoffs.

A good perspective- while today’s game is about speed and skill - having a bit of size is a value add - witness St. Louis. I was high on Rossi but he’s playing with a rather stacked Ottawa 67s with Jack Quinn, Keating, Garrefa, Hoefenmeyer - So who makes who and the sum of the parts better than the individuals issue. I’m seeing Jake Sanderson rising up boards and wonder if they could reach a bit- Lundell and Holtz appear to be solid options and I’d be happy with Drysdale or Perfetti too 

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so if the end the season ( which they will) and it was today Montreal will pick  8th, 39th, 40th, 61st, 72nd, 90th, 99th, 101st, 104th, 134th, 139th, 166th, 191st  & 199th 

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10 minutes ago, arpem-can said:

so if the end the season ( which they will) and it was today Montreal will pick  8th, 39th, 40th, 61st, 72nd, 90th, 99th, 101st, 104th, 134th, 139th, 166th, 191st  & 199th 

Some teams have played more games then others, so that would have to be taken into consideration.

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Looking at standings today ... we're 8th last

Buffalo and NJ 3pts back, 2 games in hand

Anaheim 4pts back, playing well

LA 7pts back, 8-1-1 in their last 10, game in hand

SJ 8pts back, 3-6-1 in their last 10, game in hand

Doubtful we sink lower than SJ, who would have to get 10 pts in their 12 games and we lose our last 11.    We could fall below Buff, NJ, Anaheim and potentially LA if they keep on their hot streak.    So a 4th to 8th finish ... likely 5th or 6th.   

Our Stanley cup will be the draft lottery ..... 

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34 minutes ago, arpem-can said:

so if the end the season ( which they will) and it was today Montreal will pick  8th, 39th, 40th, 61st, 72nd, 90th, 99th, 101st, 104th, 134th, 139th, 166th, 191st  & 199th 

 

20 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

Some teams have played more games then others, so that would have to be taken into consideration.

Yeah it makes you wonder what they would do. I wonder if there would be a weighted lottery (like after the lockout season) to take into consideration prior years a bit too. 

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24 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

Some teams have played more games then others, so that would have to be taken into consideration.

it could be done on a ppg % per team 

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Posted (edited)

16 minutes ago, maas_art said:

 

Yeah it makes you wonder what they would do. I wonder if there would be a weighted lottery (like after the lockout season) to take into consideration prior years a bit too. 

Another option is winning percentage prorated for game 72, so our points wouldn't change

Edited by campabee82
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But ... but ... we're not done tanking yet.    :P

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So, if the NHL shuts 'er down in the next few days, I bet Molson and Bergevin will say, "We really liked the direction of the team and we definitely would've snuck into the playoffs if it weren't for this dang coronavirus."

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28 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

So, if the NHL shuts 'er down in the next few days, I bet Molson and Bergevin will say, "We really liked the direction of the team and we definitely would've snuck into the playoffs if it weren't for this dang coronavirus."

Probably.  The worst part is that i think they might actually believe it. 

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