H_T_L

2019-20 State Of The Habs

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On 4/9/2020 at 9:33 PM, habs1952 said:

We're seeing just how inept the management team is. We all know we need help at left D and so the draft should target that hole, whether by draft pick or a trade on draft day.

I am not as pessimistic as this - 1) Romanov is an imminent signing - he's unlikely to be a 1/2 pairing and will start in 5, 6, and will likely progress into the 3,4 pairing in  2 years 2) Cale Fleury , Victor Mete, Jordan Harris, Jayden Struble give me hope for the #5/6 pairing. 3) I can live with Chiarot for another year - Kulak is just bondo filler

Have you looked at the draft for a #1 elite LD? It's a forward Heavy draft! - I've spent hours poring thru - The top LD  is Jake Sanderson - committed to U of North Dakota and his stats are below last year's darling of Cam York - not electrifying besides, Buffalo ranked ahead of us is known for picking USA players, Jeremie Poirier out of the QMJHL ranked #18 in NA skaters by Central scouting and most boards have him as a first rounder in pick area 21-25. - Remember our last LD man from that same league with similar stats was Nathan Beaulieu! Kaiden Guhle from the WHL is another LD (ranked #8 NA skater by Central Scouting)  who will fall into this similar range. Not sure they have that potential for #1, #2

So that leaves us with either waiting for next year's draft or targeting a Free Agent (Alzner Round 2) like Krug,Brodie, Edmondson, Offer Sheet to cap strapped Lightening for Sergachev or trade - Gostisbere 

What's your recommendation?

This draft year, we need to take advantage of picking a scorer in round 1 - if we stay at pick 8, I would love Holz or Perfetti to fall to us - Marco Rossi is on the small side and could be this year's falling Caufield. Quality falls off IMO just around our 2nd round picks of #39,40. I would love Bergevin to consider trading pick 8 and 39 for Minny Wild's #11 and #25 or the Rangers #16, #21. That would provide options of targeting Jack Quinn / Jacob Perrault / seth Jarivs / Tyson Foerster, and one of the above defenceman, or swinging for the fences without all your eggs in one basket on Hendrix Lapierre

Thoughts?

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3 hours ago, claremont said:

I am not as pessimistic as this - 1) Romanov is an imminent signing - he's unlikely to be a 1/2 pairing and will start in 5, 6, and will likely progress into the 3,4 pairing in  2 years 2) Cale Fleury , Victor Mete, Jordan Harris, Jayden Struble give me hope for the #5/6 pairing. 3) I can live with Chiarot for another year - Kulak is just bondo filler

Have you looked at the draft for a #1 elite LD? It's a forward Heavy draft! - I've spent hours poring thru - The top LD  is Jake Sanderson - committed to U of North Dakota and his stats are below last year's darling of Cam York - not electrifying besides, Buffalo ranked ahead of us is known for picking USA players, Jeremie Poirier out of the QMJHL ranked #18 in NA skaters by Central scouting and most boards have him as a first rounder in pick area 21-25. - Remember our last LD man from that same league with similar stats was Nathan Beaulieu! Kaiden Guhle from the WHL is another LD (ranked #8 NA skater by Central Scouting)  who will fall into this similar range. Not sure they have that potential for #1, #2

So that leaves us with either waiting for next year's draft or targeting a Free Agent (Alzner Round 2) like Krug,Brodie, Edmondson, Offer Sheet to cap strapped Lightening for Sergachev or trade - Gostisbere 

What's your recommendation?

This draft year, we need to take advantage of picking a scorer in round 1 - if we stay at pick 8, I would love Holz or Perfetti to fall to us - Marco Rossi is on the small side and could be this year's falling Caufield. Quality falls off IMO just around our 2nd round picks of #39,40. I would love Bergevin to consider trading pick 8 and 39 for Minny Wild's #11 and #25 or the Rangers #16, #21. That would provide options of targeting Jack Quinn / Jacob Perrault / seth Jarivs / Tyson Foerster, and one of the above defenceman, or swinging for the fences without all your eggs in one basket on Hendrix Lapierre

Thoughts?

I think you proved my post to be correct. 

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Hearing future cap may actually be decreasing (due to virus and lost revenue) instead of another projected increase, so we could hopefully take advantage of some teams already strapped. 

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1 hour ago, booboo_mtl said:

Hearing future cap may actually be decreasing (due to virus and lost revenue) instead of another projected increase, so we could hopefully take advantage of some teams already strapped. 

If that happens then I can see the NHL allowing teams to dump one or more bad deals off the books to get everybody in compliance. Alzner anybody?

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2 hours ago, booboo_mtl said:

Hearing future cap may actually be decreasing (due to virus and lost revenue) instead of another projected increase, so we could hopefully take advantage of some teams already strapped. 

  It will be interesting for a player like Domi . Since  his points and goals went down this year  Montreal might be able to sign him to a reasonable  3 or 4 year deal considering  diminished revenue for all teams . Agreed that it's a good possibility the league will allow another buy-out round to off-set a lowered cap...…. this could be a pretty interesting summer of fireworks .

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19 hours ago, habs1952 said:

I think you proved my post to be correct. 

Agree - it’s easy to complain and criticize without adding any value 

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Stl has signed Marco Scandella to a 4-year contract extension with an AAV between 3 and 4 million. Laughing pretty hard right now, given how bad he was with us. As a result, the Habs obtain the conditional 2021 4th rounder that was part of the trade with St. Louis. So chalk up another free pick acquired by Marc Bergevin. He traded a 4th rounder away for Scandella and a few weeks later got back a 2nd rounder and a 4th rounder. Free draft capital always welcome.

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4 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Stl has signed Marco Scandella to a 4-year contract extension with an AAV between 3 and 4 million. Laughing pretty hard right now, given how bad he was with us. As a result, the Habs obtain the conditional 2021 4th rounder that was part of the trade with St. Louis. So chalk up another free pick acquired by Marc Bergevin. He traded a 4th rounder away for Scandella and a few weeks later got back a 2nd rounder and a 4th rounder. Free draft capital always welcome.

Yeah i am kind of floored by the contract he got! he was a third pairing guy at best for me! and if nothing else MB is the king of flipping a nickel for a dime!

 

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11 hours ago, ramcharger440 said:

 if nothing else MB is the king of flipping a nickel for a dime!

This is it right there.  He is amazing at flipping low quality assets for slightly better assets.  The problem is, you cant buy anything for less than a dollar and by the time he's added up all those dimes into a dollar, the thing he's trying to buy is NLA or expired.   He just has no sense of timing. 

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On 2020-04-16 at 10:29 PM, ramcharger440 said:

Yeah i am kind of floored by the contract he got! he was a third pairing guy at best for me! and if nothing else MB is the king of flipping a nickel for a dime!

 

    Scandella did take a pay cut in exchange for a longer deal ...he might only be a 3rd pairing guy but he looked decent enough to me and that's what St Louis wanted . Hard to argue that St Louis screws up in assessing talent considering the way their Cup was put together.

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On 4/12/2020 at 8:30 AM, claremont said:

Agree - it’s easy to complain and criticize without adding any value 

Thats an old song . Heard similar comments in 016 and 017 and 018 and 019.

 

Bergevin and Molson have sabotaged this team. Lowered the bar.

 

They are a celler dwelling team who wont see play offs for years.

 

As for Bergevin. The last play off series of his career will remain the first round loss to the New York Rangers in 2017. 

 

Mark my words. (I called that in 2018).

 

 

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On 6/15/2019 at 4:00 PM, ramcharger440 said:

Right now we are in good shape. we had a solid comeback year where we saw some players develop and some good trades. we are finally solid at center not super star solid but quite good. Price played much better and we had some players step up on D. we have some weak spots on special teams but this off season should help that out. our main weak points remain first pairing LHD and a very solid backup goalie not some guy in development but a real deal guy we can count on!. we have i think 10 draft picks and plenty of quality forwards we could package to fix things so lets see what our glorious leadership group come up with in the next week or two........if they mange to get this right we could be a dead solid team this year.

How did that work out.

Mt prediction was must closer. "Bergebvin built team missing the play offs for the 4th time in 5 years. 3 straight.

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There's an echo in here. 

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11 hours ago, Deane62 said:

How did that work out.

Mt prediction was must closer. "Bergebvin built team missing the play offs for the 4th time in 5 years. 3 straight.

You about done cherry picking old posts? no? go ahead try something new.....

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22 hours ago, Deane62 said:

How did that work out.

Mt prediction was must closer. "Bergebvin built team missing the play offs for the 4th time in 5 years. 3 straight.

and I can predict last weeks lottery tickets

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On 4/11/2020 at 6:09 AM, claremont said:

I am not as pessimistic as this - 1) Romanov is an imminent signing - he's unlikely to be a 1/2 pairing and will start in 5, 6, and will likely progress into the 3,4 pairing in  2 years 2) Cale Fleury , Victor Mete, Jordan Harris, Jayden Struble give me hope for the #5/6 pairing. 3) I can live with Chiarot for another year - Kulak is just bondo filler

Have you looked at the draft for a #1 elite LD? It's a forward Heavy draft! - I've spent hours poring thru - The top LD  is Jake Sanderson - committed to U of North Dakota and his stats are below last year's darling of Cam York - not electrifying besides, Buffalo ranked ahead of us is known for picking USA players, Jeremie Poirier out of the QMJHL ranked #18 in NA skaters by Central scouting and most boards have him as a first rounder in pick area 21-25. - Remember our last LD man from that same league with similar stats was Nathan Beaulieu! Kaiden Guhle from the WHL is another LD (ranked #8 NA skater by Central Scouting)  who will fall into this similar range. Not sure they have that potential for #1, #2

So that leaves us with either waiting for next year's draft or targeting a Free Agent (Alzner Round 2) like Krug,Brodie, Edmondson, Offer Sheet to cap strapped Lightening for Sergachev or trade - Gostisbere 

What's your recommendation?

This draft year, we need to take advantage of picking a scorer in round 1 - if we stay at pick 8, I would love Holz or Perfetti to fall to us - Marco Rossi is on the small side and could be this year's falling Caufield. Quality falls off IMO just around our 2nd round picks of #39,40. I would love Bergevin to consider trading pick 8 and 39 for Minny Wild's #11 and #25 or the Rangers #16, #21. That would provide options of targeting Jack Quinn / Jacob Perrault / seth Jarivs / Tyson Foerster, and one of the above defenceman, or swinging for the fences without all your eggs in one basket on Hendrix Lapierre

Thoughts?

With the draft I think you draft BPA.  Unless its an absolute toss up between BPA and best player at the position of need, then you should always take BPA imho.  Even if you end with say, four #1RW, you can always trade them, right?  If you take a lesser asset - even if he fits your needs - then you're still diminishing your pool.   

With regards to the #1 LD- I agree, trade is the way to go most likely but i worry that MB wont do it. He seems super reluctant to move any of our impact players & if thats the case you arent getting one back in return.  That said, maybe he moves a guy on an expiring contract (Tatar, Petry) or a player who may be expendable because of depth (Domi).    

I do actually think you could get back a really solid return by sending off one of our forwards + Mete in a trade.   Domi + Mete or Drouin + Mete etc.    I dont want to get rid of Mete (or any of those players for that matter) but i think that a team will look at him and think "mitigating loss of #1LD) so they may be more likely to move that guy rather than a 1 for 1 swap.   Mete is likely a #4-6 guy anyway, long term, so if we truly acquired a top pairing LD I think we can afford to lose him.   Kulak, Chiarot, etc will be able to fill in until Harris, Romanov, Norlinder or Struble are ready. 

On 4/11/2020 at 4:55 PM, booboo_mtl said:

Hearing future cap may actually be decreasing (due to virus and lost revenue) instead of another projected increase, so we could hopefully take advantage of some teams already strapped. 

 

On 4/11/2020 at 6:50 PM, H_T_L said:

If that happens then I can see the NHL allowing teams to dump one or more bad deals off the books to get everybody in compliance. Alzner anybody?

Almost certain that if the cap goes down, the NHL allows teams to clear contracts.   I think Alzner may be a buyout candidate regardless of this though - i seem to remember someone showing that this summer was the year that made the most sense to buy him out. 

 

On 4/11/2020 at 7:27 PM, arpem-can said:

  It will be interesting for a player like Domi . Since  his points and goals went down this year  Montreal might be able to sign him to a reasonable  3 or 4 year deal considering  diminished revenue for all teams . Agreed that it's a good possibility the league will allow another buy-out round to off-set a lowered cap...…. this could be a pretty interesting summer of fireworks .

imho Domi either signs a deal like that or he is moved. I dont see MB letting him sign a 1 year deal and i dont see Domi wanting a 6-7 year deal.  Mid-bridge or trade is what we'll likely see. 

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34 minutes ago, maas_art said:

With the draft I think you draft BPA.  Unless its an absolute toss up between BPA and best player at the position of need, then you should always take BPA imho.  Even if you end with say, four #1RW, you can always trade them, right?  If you take a lesser asset - even if he fits your needs - then you're still diminishing your pool.   

With regards to the #1 LD- I agree, trade is the way to go most likely but i worry that MB wont do it. He seems super reluctant to move any of our impact players & if thats the case you arent getting one back in return.  That said, maybe he moves a guy on an expiring contract (Tatar, Petry) or a player who may be expendable because of depth (Domi).    

I do actually think you could get back a really solid return by sending off one of our forwards + Mete in a trade.   Domi + Mete or Drouin + Mete etc.    I dont want to get rid of Mete (or any of those players for that matter) but i think that a team will look at him and think "mitigating loss of #1LD) so they may be more likely to move that guy rather than a 1 for 1 swap.   Mete is likely a #4-6 guy anyway, long term, so if we truly acquired a top pairing LD I think we can afford to lose him.   Kulak, Chiarot, etc will be able to fill in until Harris, Romanov, Norlinder or Struble are ready. 

 

Almost certain that if the cap goes down, the NHL allows teams to clear contracts.   I think Alzner may be a buyout candidate regardless of this though - i seem to remember someone showing that this summer was the year that made the most sense to buy him out. 

 

imho Domi either signs a deal like that or he is moved. I dont see MB letting him sign a 1 year deal and i dont see Domi wanting a 6-7 year deal.  Mid-bridge or trade is what we'll likely see. 

      3 years for Drouin money would be ok with me 

 

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

With the draft I think you draft BPA.  Unless its an absolute toss up between BPA and best player at the position of need, then you should always take BPA imho.  Even if you end with say, four #1RW, you can always trade them, right?  If you take a lesser asset - even if he fits your needs - then you're still diminishing your pool.   

With regards to the #1 LD- I agree, trade is the way to go most likely but i worry that MB wont do it. He seems super reluctant to move any of our impact players & if thats the case you arent getting one back in return.  That said, maybe he moves a guy on an expiring contract (Tatar, Petry) or a player who may be expendable because of depth (Domi).    

I do actually think you could get back a really solid return by sending off one of our forwards + Mete in a trade.   Domi + Mete or Drouin + Mete etc.    I dont want to get rid of Mete (or any of those players for that matter) but i think that a team will look at him and think "mitigating loss of #1LD) so they may be more likely to move that guy rather than a 1 for 1 swap.   Mete is likely a #4-6 guy anyway, long term, so if we truly acquired a top pairing LD I think we can afford to lose him.   Kulak, Chiarot, etc will be able to fill in until Harris, Romanov, Norlinder or Struble are ready. 

imho Domi either signs a deal like that or he is moved. I dont see MB letting him sign a 1 year deal and i dont see Domi wanting a 6-7 year deal.  Mid-bridge or trade is what we'll likely see. 

Very good Thoughts - thx for the added value - Domi I hate to trade as I believe he is a character effort team guy (despite some stupid temper penalties now and then yet he’s not quite in Gally’s leadership mold). Drouin the jury is still out on him and maximum value might not be obtained at present. I agree with you on Mete so I’m not sure who the other forward could be - gotta be careful that I don’t over value the player perhaps Danualt as an alternative - it’s gotta be a pretty good LD

im totally onside with you on BAP but I’m desperate for a scorer - it’s been ages since we have had one at levels beyond a Tatar or Gally. In the past ev1 wanted Zadina or Lavoie who haven’t progressed to the large degree expected so I hope I can trust our scouting and  Risk assessments to find one. 

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Now that Markov has retired and wants to coach, what could he bring to this in that capacity?  

 

 

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On 4/11/2020 at 9:50 PM, H_T_L said:

If that happens then I can see the NHL allowing teams to dump one or more bad deals off the books to get everybody in compliance. Alzner anybody?

Maybe that could be possible... but... would the NHLPA allow that to happen?

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2 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Maybe that could be possible... but... would the NHLPA allow that to happen?

Don't see why not. The player gets paid his salary and the team gets the Cap relief. The player then gets the chance to sign a new deal somewhere else while still making the money from his original contract.

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Looks like our fearless leader has decided that we do not have a decent backup for Price in our system as he just signed KHL UFA Vasili Demchenko to a 1 year 2 way deal worth 700k. Demchenko has a 2.77 GAAand .909 S% in 212 KHL games. At 26 he could be a long term solution for the backup to Primeau as well.

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5 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Maybe that could be possible... but... would the NHLPA allow that to happen?

I'm curious to see what they do with free agents who's contracts expire at the end of June. Will the free agents want to take part in the playoffs without a contract in place(if the playoffs take place at such time).

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1 hour ago, campabee82 said:

Looks like our fearless leader has decided that we do not have a decent backup for Price in our system as he just signed KHL UFA Vasili Demchenko to a 1 year 2 way deal worth 700k. Demchenko has a 2.77 GAAand .909 S% in 212 KHL games. At 26 he could be a long term solution for the backup to Primeau as well.

"posted a 9-17-3 record with a .907 save percentage and a 2.77 goals-against average"

I don't know anything about the KHL but i hope he was on a bad team with that record.

 

https://www.tsn.ca/montreal-canadiens-reach-deal-with-khl-g-vasili-demchenko-1.1468362

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20 hours ago, claremont said:

Very good Thoughts - thx for the added value - Domi I hate to trade as I believe he is a character effort team guy (despite some stupid temper penalties now and then yet he’s not quite in Gally’s leadership mold). Drouin the jury is still out on him and maximum value might not be obtained at present. I agree with you on Mete so I’m not sure who the other forward could be - gotta be careful that I don’t over value the player perhaps Danualt as an alternative - it’s gotta be a pretty good LD

im totally onside with you on BAP but I’m desperate for a scorer - it’s been ages since we have had one at levels beyond a Tatar or Gally. In the past ev1 wanted Zadina or Lavoie who haven’t progressed to the large degree expected so I hope I can trust our scouting and  Risk assessments to find one. 

Yeah i wonder if Danault is an option.  If you look at our centres (ages are when the season starts next year):

Danault (27)
Domi (25) - could move back to LW
Suzuki (21)
Kotkaniemi (20)
Poehling (21)
Evans (24)

As of right now losing Danault would hurt but theres some very intriguing young players in the mix. If JK can make the step up again next year and Evans can shoulder some defensive responsibility... you never know.   If we lose Danault we likely miss the playoffs next year (unless someone like Poehling takes a huge jump forward) but to acquire a top line LD AND manage to retain Domi, Drouin etc?   Id be all for it.   If Danault + Mete brings you a true top pairing LD that is under 25 i say go for it. 

 

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