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2019-20 State Of The Habs


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I understand what you are saying, HTL, but if we do something with Price, we need to do it while his value is still high. If he has a bad year next season, then his value might drop dramatically.

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On 8/22/2020 at 2:25 PM, BigTed3 said:

At the end of the day, the Habs still lack elite talent and they still rely on a core that is old and that has repeatedly worn down as the year goes on. Until they get a younger core or until the older D men/goalie are insulated by some type of relief, we will still struggle.

Correct Ted - we need a top 15-20 scorer that can put the puck in the net on a consistent basis Vs the somewhat mediocre balanced 3 lines that we have. Suzuki or KK and a resurgent if he ever materializes Drouin are a ways away. Our #1 line of Gally Danualt Tatar don’t really scare too many teams and are easily shut down so perhaps that’s why we have lost so many 1 goal games - a trend I see continuing until the young guys carry more load even with Caufield coming in 2022. Price is elite, Petry is elite, and Weber despite your objections imo is quasi-elite despite losing a step he still has the smarts and leadership 

On 8/22/2020 at 3:41 PM, habsisme said:

From watching MB's press conference and having a look at cap friendly, I don't think we will see any offer sheets or UFAs (Krug) come to Montreal. Next year the following will be UFAs; Gallager, Petry, Danault, Tatar, Armia and RFAs; Kotkaniemi and Lehkonen. At which point we will surely be a team close to the cap. Even if we do nothing this year, I suspect someone like Tatar is likely going to be gone. 

Given all this, I'm hoping we can take on a one-year bad contract for 1st like Carolina got. I would love ot have Krug, but taking a closer look, I'm not sure we can realistically afford him.

We have to factor in the Seattle expansion loss but offer sheet - Vince Dunn, Pierre-Luc Debois (For heart), and even an expensive Sergachev are going to be hard pressed to be signed by their teams but I don’t think Bergevin will be that aggressive vs his AHO experience 

I would like to see our cap room  used to pick up some dead contracts and even more  draft picks - it’s still not the time to buy free agents ( as much as Kovi was well liked he was abysmal in the playoffs) and we are not close to a top 8 team which is when a free agent patch has more upside) 

Trades - Domi (I would sign), Tatar had bad playoffs - some further root cause in next years regular season is required before dumping them. Mete is merely injury filler until one of Harris, Norlinder or Struble arrive to supplement Romanov, Kulak, Chiarot 

Hudon, Belzille, Oullette cut the bait -  please no bargain basement trades like Weal Etc - a Bergevin specialty - those days should be gone 

Poehling - let’s see what Bouchard can draw out - I’m not high on Evans as I don’t think he has much vision and gets steam rolled for his size 

We are fools if we think we can trade Price or that he would waive his NTC for the Kraken to be closer to home. That contract is an albatross    For several more years. 
 

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1 hour ago, claremont said:

We are fools if we think we can trade Price or that he would waive his NTC for the Kraken to be closer to home. That contract is an albatross    For several more years. 

   Price is signed for 6 more years at 10.5 mill , Bobrovsky is signed for 6 more years at 10 mill , Lundqvist has one more year left on an 8.5 mill per . Then  Rask has one year at 7.0 and will be paid more , Fleury has 2 years left at 7.0 mill after contracts considered expensive 5 or more years ago are deemed more of a deal now ...quality goalie salaries have risen exponentially but there aren't that many elite  goalies like Price  and he would have takers if he waived to a city like say Vancouver  his home or Calgary and Edmonton close to home ....the only reason to consider his contract an albatross is the extra 1.5 -3.0 mill more per year than other elite goalies who have expiring contracts ..lets see what Holtby gets ....it's all relative to the cap going up yearly driven by players like McDavid , Tavaras & Matthews . Even  Kane and Toewes signed huge contracts years ago upwards of 10 million per ....Price is expensive yes but not ridiculous for who he is . 

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8 hours ago, claremont said:

Correct Ted - we need a top 15-20 scorer that can put the puck in the net on a consistent basis Vs the somewhat mediocre balanced 3 lines that we have. Suzuki or KK and a resurgent if he ever materializes Drouin are a ways away. Our #1 line of Gally Danualt Tatar don’t really scare too many teams and are easily shut down so perhaps that’s why we have lost so many 1 goal games - a trend I see continuing until the young guys carry more load even with Caufield coming in 2022. Price is elite, Petry is elite, and Weber despite your objections imo is quasi-elite despite losing a step he still has the smarts and leadership

I can't remember the last time the Habs had a home-grown talent who was a legit threat to be a top 10 scorer in the league year in year out, it's been so long. Sure we've had some good offensive players whom we've acquired in Kovalev, Damphousse, Turgeon, Vanek, Radulov, etc. but none of those guys were top 10 players and all were acquired in the 2nd half of their careers. You think about the best offensive players we've drafted or raised through our system in the past two decades and the best is Pacioretty, and even then, I wouldn't have called him a top 10 forward in the league. Subban and Price are the only two guys we've drafted who have been elite (by which I mean at a caliber where they're considered award nominees in their respective categories). We haven't had an Art Ross or Richard or Hart trophy candidate in forever.

As far as Petry and Weber go... Petry is underrated in my view. He's solid and probably a #1 defencemen on some teams in that I think he's a top 31 D man in the league. But he's also in his 30's already. Ditto Weber, who is in my view overrated but still a great player. The issues I have with Weber are that 1. people overrate him based on his history of being a top 3 D man in the league a decade ago and 2. he's shown he doesn't hold up well over an entire season. Is he still a great offensive defenceman, particularly on the PP? Yes. Is he still a physical force? Absolutely. But he's not that great at playing defence in his own zone on account of his mobility not being fantastic and his play spirals off over time. I just don't see him being a guy you can throw out for 24-26 minutes a night at this stage in his career, and I wouldn't come close to calling either Petry or Weber elite. Weber was elite earlier in his career as a Pred. He is not any more, unless you're willing to say the top 10-15% of D men in the league are elite. To me, elite is top 1-2% (as I said, at the caliber of being nominated for awards). There are a plethora of D men I'd rather have on my team right now than either Petry or Weber. To name a few, I'd list Seth Jones, Makar, Heiskanen, Hedman, Rielly, Josi, Werenski, Pietrangelo, Dahlin, Chabot, Carlson and so on, and there are a bunch more like OEL, Suter, Slavin, Karlsson, Letang, Doughty, Burns etc. who are at least on the same tier as Weber and Petry, and these are just some examples.

In any case, like I said, the problem is not that Price, Petry, and Weber aren't good. They are. The problem is that we don't have a good enough supporting cast and those 3 players are overplayed and worn down because they can't play elite-level minutes over 82 games at their ages. If you have a horse like Seth Jones or Makar or so on, then it's much easier to play Weber or Petry 20-21 minutes a night and let them perform at a higher level over an entire season. But when Weber and Petry are your horses, they don't have the endurance to keep up.

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7 hours ago, arpem-can said:

   Price is signed for 6 more years at 10.5 mill , Bobrovsky is signed for 6 more years at 10 mill , Lundqvist has one more year left on an 8.5 mill per . Then  Rask has one year at 7.0 and will be paid more , Fleury has 2 years left at 7.0 mill after contracts considered expensive 5 or more years ago are deemed more of a deal now ...quality goalie salaries have risen exponentially but there aren't that many elite  goalies like Price  and he would have takers if he waived to a city like say Vancouver  his home or Calgary and Edmonton close to home ....the only reason to consider his contract an albatross is the extra 1.5 -3.0 mill more per year than other elite goalies who have expiring contracts ..lets see what Holtby gets ....it's all relative to the cap going up yearly driven by players like McDavid , Tavaras & Matthews . Even  Kane and Toewes signed huge contracts years ago upwards of 10 million per ....Price is expensive yes but not ridiculous for who he is . 

I’m ok with the Price $ per year but my issue is the term vs age. Florida grossly overpaid in rate and term for Bobo given his performance this year and he’s never had the historical body of work/achievements that Price has. To the point - Price is 33 - how many high performing seasons do you think he has left in the tank? 3 maybe 4? That’s a lot of dead money in years 5&6 to pay for a likely backup and 38,39 year old biscuit stopper in what has become a young mans game. How many goalies do you know now that at age 37-39 are high performing? Longo? Lundqvist Crawford are or were all in decline past 35. Even Fleury at 35 with 2 years left after this at $7 Mill appears to be odd man out / decline. Paying a goalie high salary is a cost of doing business - giving them term is a similar cost and gamble - imo  just don’t expect to reap the rewards near the end of the term. 
With the cap being flat for the next several years very few teams are taking Prices contract even if the habs keep salary - Certainly not Edmonton who are hard pressed to keep Athanasiou or replace a few spare parts - Holland is way too smart for that. Calgary? Look at their cap room in replacing Brodie or Hamonic or even trying to unload Gaudreau - I don’t see Treliving making the Price deal. Vancouver maybe - Colorado has room but Sakic is shrewd and cheap. I’m saying the odds are incredibly stacked against us trading Price so maybe I was a little over zealous in using the term fools. 

 

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56 minutes ago, claremont said:

I’m ok with the Price $ per year but my issue is the term vs age. Florida grossly overpaid in rate and term for Bobo given his performance this year and he’s never had the historical body of work/achievements that Price has. To the point - Price is 33 - how many high performing seasons do you think he has left in the tank? 3 maybe 4? That’s a lot of dead money in years 5&6 to pay for a likely backup and 38,39 year old biscuit stopper in what has become a young mans game. How many goalies do you know now that at age 37-39 are high performing? Longo? Lundqvist Crawford are or were all in decline past 35. Even Fleury at 35 with 2 years left after this at $7 Mill appears to be odd man out / decline. Paying a goalie high salary is a cost of doing business - giving them term is a similar cost and gamble - imo  just don’t expect to reap the rewards near the end of the term. 
With the cap being flat for the next several years very few teams are taking Prices contract even if the habs keep salary - Certainly not Edmonton who are hard pressed to keep Athanasiou or replace a few spare parts - Holland is way too smart for that. Calgary? Look at their cap room in replacing Brodie or Hamonic or even trying to unload Gaudreau - I don’t see Treliving making the Price deal. Vancouver maybe - Colorado has room but Sakic is shrewd and cheap. I’m saying the odds are incredibly stacked against us trading Price so maybe I was a little over zealous in using the term fools. 

 

I hear what you're saying about Price and his age but it is worth noting that his cap hit goes down in 2 years ( 3 of the last 4 years are at $7750,000 and 1 at $ 8,500,000 ) although it is ridiculous next year at $13,000,000 . When players sign these long term deals even they don't  expect to still be around at age 38-39 ...it's the insurance a team is willing to pay to get you on the dotted ...he could have salary taken back and in the end bought out if need be... 

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2 hours ago, arpem-can said:

I hear what you're saying about Price and his age but it is worth noting that his cap hit goes down in 2 years ( 3 of the last 4 years are at $7750,000 and 1 at $ 8,500,000 ) although it is ridiculous next year at $13,000,000 . When players sign these long term deals even they don't  expect to still be around at age 38-39 ...it's the insurance a team is willing to pay to get you on the dotted ...he could have salary taken back and in the end bought out if need be... 

The cap hit does NOT go down. The cap hit is the contract's total value divided by the length in years. 

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On 8/21/2020 at 7:05 PM, BigTed3 said:

My opening chances of certain players being back next year:

- Drouin: 90% chance he's back, I think MB will give him another chance.

- Tatar: 70%. I think MB likes him but he is clearly not a playoff performer and he's in a contract year, which means there's a chance he's moved.

- Mete: 50%. Romanov is coming. I don't see MB moving Chiarot. He also needs an upgrade on left D and I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him try to do something like swap Domi and Mete for Brodin (see below). Mete is a bit of the odd man out.

- Domi: 20%. I think MB will be shopping him for D help. Don't think  the Habs are happy with Domi.

- Poehling: 15%. After everyone else played in the post-season but him, you have to figure there's a reason the Habs don't like him. Rumor is he pouted in the AHL and that he didn't prepare for the re-start very well and showed up in bad shape. MB won't tolerate that. He's heading the way of Danny Kristo.

- Weal: 15%. Hopefully he's not back.

- Hudon: 2%. Likely done with the Habs and wouldn't be surprised if he's in the KHL next year (if he's not signed to a minor league deal by Tampa).

- Weise: 1%. He should be done, probably done in the NHL.

Agree with these numbers.


I think its highly likely MB offers a pacakge of say Domi + Mete + Poehling for one high end player.  

I also think that MB would move Tatar if they got the right return. I do think that Tatar will take a discount to resign here. 

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4 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

as Petry and Weber go... Petry is underrated in my view. He's solid and probably a #1 defencemen on some teams in that I think he's a top 31 D man in the league. But he's also in his 30's already. Ditto Weber, who is in my view overrated but still a great player. The issues I have with Weber are that 1. people overrate him based on his history of being a top 3 D man in the league a decade ago and 2. he's shown he doesn't hold up well over an entire season. Is he still a great offensive defenceman, particularly on the PP? Yes. Is he still a physical force? Absolutely. But he's not that great at playing defence in his own zone on account of his mobility not being fantastic and his play spirals off over time. I just don't see him being a guy you can throw out for 24-26 minutes a night at this stage in his career, and I wouldn't come close to calling either Petry or Weber elite. Weber was elite earlier in his career as a Pred. He is not any more, unless you're willing to say the top 10-15% of D men in the league are elite. To me, elite is top 1-2% (as I said, at the caliber of being nominated for awards). There are a plethora of D men I'd rather have on my team right now than either Petry or Weber. To name a few, I'd list Seth Jones, Makar, Heiskanen, Hedman, Rielly, Josi, Werenski, Pietrangelo, Dahlin, Chabot, Carlson and so on, and there are a bunch more like OEL, Suter, Slavin, Karlsson, Letang, Doughty, Burns etc. who are at least on the same tier as Weber and Petry, and these are just some examples.

After a very strong playoff showing, NOW is probably the absolute best time to move Weber.  He looked dominant during most of the playoffs/play in and his actual salary is now lower than his cap hit ($6m actual vs. $7.8 cap hit).  In 2 more years it goes down to $3m actual. That is a highly tradeable asset to a cap rich, cash poor team (or one with a cheap owner).  As long as he's still an NHL-caliber defensman (ie top 6) he's tradable on that contract to some of the poorer/cheaper teams.  So you move him now & the receiving GM doesnt have to worry about getting 'stuck' with a bad contract. 

I mean its moot because MB wont trade him, but there's really never been a better time. 

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On 8/23/2020 at 8:54 AM, H_T_L said:

IMO Price's contract is only an issue when we need the cap room. MB has been well below the max for a couple years now and has carried a lot of dead weight that can be shed to make even more space. I'm OK with moving Price for the right deal assuming there's a plan to replace him,,,,  however,,,, we couldn't even find a decent backup this season, so how much harder would it be to find a starter? We say Primeau but he's untested. Until we get that situation sorted out, moving Price only adds to our issues rather then solves them. Not a big believer in making a hole to fill another. Now if we were to move him for another decent starter and a top pairing D that's different. Anybody have confidence that MB is capable of that type of move or is even willing to entertain the idea? He's more likely to move Primeau and watch him possibly develop into the player we actually could use.

This.  I honestly am less concerned about trading Price than I am about Weber or Petry.  I like all 3 guys but a GM has to be realistic about where his team is & when your best 5-6 players are all either under 21 and over 33, there's an issue. 

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I didnt watch Bergevin's presser but read the highlights.

One thing I agree with him on is that the 10 game playoffs/play-in could be worth the price of dropping from 9th to 16th. 


I say could be, because MB has to now act on it.   What that 10 games did was show us that this team can be very good but is lacking some key elements.  MB addressed a few of these (for example, Price needing a quality backup is a priority for him). 

Obviously the run gave experience to guys like JK and Suzuki but it also showed who may be expendable, what our biggest holes are and what he needs to do to make this team better.  I know that some will say "these were obvious before" but now MB has his "playoff test" to measure things against.

 


So, if we have another crap off season where we do nothing then going from 9th to 16th was a mistake. But if MB does actually turn around & make key moves  - Get a quality backup, shore up our LD, somehow manage to land an elite scoring winger - then that draft drop will be worth it.

Will he finally have the guts to make a few tough moves? dunno. Lets hope we find out!

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1 hour ago, habs1952 said:

The cap hit does NOT go down. The cap hit is the contract's total value divided by the length in years. 

right you are ...it was the outlay of salary I was looking at ....so not so good for the team if you have a cap hit of 10.5 but an out lay of 7.75 which these billionaires can afford 

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

After a very strong playoff showing, NOW is probably the absolute best time to move Weber.  He looked dominant during most of the playoffs/play in and his actual salary is now lower than his cap hit ($6m actual vs. $7.8 cap hit).  In 2 more years it goes down to $3m actual. That is a highly tradeable asset to a cap rich, cash poor team (or one with a cheap owner).  As long as he's still an NHL-caliber defensman (ie top 6) he's tradable on that contract to some of the poorer/cheaper teams.  So you move him now & the receiving GM doesnt have to worry about getting 'stuck' with a bad contract. 

I mean its moot because MB wont trade him, but there's really never been a better time. 

The best time to trade Weber has always been in the past. I don't see his value going up that much, even if his base salary goes down because even if his base salary is low, he's going to be viewed as a salary cap dump in the future. Every season we keep him is an additional gamble that he doesn't suffer a serious injury or see a severe drop-off in his play or just decide to up and retire. We were fortunate in a way this year that the pandemic gave him a break and then as you said allowed him to shine in the playoffs after being well-rested. But you look at his last couple of games against Philly and he looked worn down and I just feel like we're pushing our luck to keep trying to play him 82 games as if he's a top-pairing defenceman minute-wise. He can't handle that.

The other smart thing about trading him now is that the ED is coming up next year, so dealing Weber allows you to potentially re-sign Petry and to protect Petry or someone else in the draft instead of using a protection spot on a 36-year old. My biggest fear in the ED is that the Habs will protect a 36 year-old Weber, an over-valued 3rd pairing D man in Chiarot, and an impending UFA in Petry and allow Seattle to go out and grab a Fleury or Juulsen or so on.

Best-case scenario for me is dealing Weber for a scoring winger and then trading one of Domi or Tatar as part of a package for a top 3 D man. For example, we know Minnesota likes Domi and we know they also had some interest in Poehling if he didn't end up signing his ELC with Montreal. So a package of Domi/Poehling for Dumba could be interesting for both teams. And then flipping a guy like Weber to a team like Philly or Florida or the Islanders or Toronto or Edmonton could net a scoring winger. Or what about dealing a 2nd or 3rd rounder to Edmonton for Puljujarvi? I think there are options for MB to work with, but as usual, he can't stand pat. He remains in no-man's land between having an aging corps and a young influx of talent. If Suzuki and Kotkaniemi and Romanov and Primeau and Norlinder are players you can build around, then Weber is likely not a key piece in that timeline and we're better off dealing him for a younger asset and maybe using an asset like Domi to replace him with someone along the lines of Dumba.

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

Im pretty sure he would but I dont know if Mantha would be as valuable as say Brodin or Sanheim or some other top 4 LD. 

I think I agree and disagree. I do think a top 4 LD would help, a lot. But what we’re really missing is a top 2 LD. Sanheim has that potential, Brodin not so much. I highly doubt Philadelphia would move Sanheim, and I think that would be a major overpayment for Brodin. Now if we could somehow pry a legit top pair guy from someone I think yes, that would be better worth that package of Domi, Mete and Poehling, but if all we can get back for that is a 2nd pair LD, then I would argue Mantha would be more impactful. I might make that argument for any top six scoring winger, but especially in Mantha’s case. With his size, skill set and age, he would look really good in our top six, and even better on our power play. If we could add his onetimer threat to our existing threat from Weber, watch out! And considering how poor our PP has been the last few years, fixing that would make a huge impact on our wins/losses. Me thinks.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

The best time to trade Weber has always been in the past. I don't see his value going up that much, even if his base salary goes down because even if his base salary is low, he's going to be viewed as a salary cap dump in the future. Every season we keep him is an additional gamble that he doesn't suffer a serious injury or see a severe drop-off in his play or just decide to up and retire. We were fortunate in a way this year that the pandemic gave him a break and then as you said allowed him to shine in the playoffs after being well-rested. But you look at his last couple of games against Philly and he looked worn down and I just feel like we're pushing our luck to keep trying to play him 82 games as if he's a top-pairing defenceman minute-wise. He can't handle that.

The other smart thing about trading him now is that the ED is coming up next year, so dealing Weber allows you to potentially re-sign Petry and to protect Petry or someone else in the draft instead of using a protection spot on a 36-year old. My biggest fear in the ED is that the Habs will protect a 36 year-old Weber, an over-valued 3rd pairing D man in Chiarot, and an impending UFA in Petry and allow Seattle to go out and grab a Fleury or Juulsen or so on.

Best-case scenario for me is dealing Weber for a scoring winger and then trading one of Domi or Tatar as part of a package for a top 3 D man. For example, we know Minnesota likes Domi and we know they also had some interest in Poehling if he didn't end up signing his ELC with Montreal. So a package of Domi/Poehling for Dumba could be interesting for both teams. And then flipping a guy like Weber to a team like Philly or Florida or the Islanders or Toronto or Edmonton could net a scoring winger. Or what about dealing a 2nd or 3rd rounder to Edmonton for Puljujarvi? I think there are options for MB to work with, but as usual, he can't stand pat. He remains in no-man's land between having an aging corps and a young influx of talent. If Suzuki and Kotkaniemi and Romanov and Primeau and Norlinder are players you can build around, then Weber is likely not a key piece in that timeline and we're better off dealing him for a younger asset and maybe using an asset like Domi to replace him with someone along the lines of Dumba.

Knowing that MB will NOT trade Weber, what if you make a trade (domi + ___ for Dumba) that allows you to play Weber as your #2 RD.   This allows you to tax him less, and free up Petry (who may have more trade value right now to a contender not looking for a player signed long).  You ideally use Petry to bring in a top pairing LD like Byram. 

You lose Domi, Petry, maybe Mete + Poehling

but your top 4 becomes:

Byram - Dumba
Romanov - Weber

and if either of those LD falter you can use Kulak or Chiarot for a short term solution. 

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

The best time to trade Weber has always been in the past. Every season we keep him is an additional gamble that he doesn't suffer a serious injury or see a severe drop-off in his play or just decide to up and retire.  But you look at his last couple of games against Philly and he looked worn down and I just feel like we're pushing our luck to keep trying to play him 82 games as if he's a top-pairing defenceman minute-wise. He can't handle that.

The other smart thing about trading him now is that the ED is coming up next year, so dealing Weber allows you to potentially re-sign Petry and to protect Petry or someone else in the draft instead of using a protection spot on a 36-year old. My biggest fear in the ED is that the Habs will protect a 36 year-old Weber, an over-valued 3rd pairing D man in Chiarot, and an impending UFA in Petry and allow Seattle to go out and grab a Fleury or Juulsen or so on.

For example, we know Minnesota likes Domi and we know they also had some interest in Poehling if he didn't end up signing his ELC with Montreal. So a package of Domi/Poehling for Dumba could be interesting for both teams. And then flipping a guy like Weber to a team like Philly or Florida or the Islanders or Toronto or Edmonton could net a scoring winger. Or what about dealing a 2nd or 3rd rounder to Edmonton for Puljujarvi? I think there are options for MB to work with, but as usual, he can't stand pat. He remains in no-man's land between having an aging corps and a young influx of talent. If Suzuki and Kotkaniemi and Romanov and Primeau and Norlinder are players you can build around, then Weber is likely not a key piece in that timeline and we're better off dealing him for a younger asset and maybe using an asset like Domi to replace him with someone along the lines of Dumba.

Sure hockey is a business but human behavior and psychology is still in play. Weber is a pro’s pro and one of the hearts of the team - Gally and price as the others. I say you don’t trade your captain unless you aren’t in a playoff race and he deserves a chance to win or his play is costing the team severely and he’s no longer respected by his teammates. To me even if he goes to 2nd pairing or 3rd pairing he still has value even with the ED on the horizon. 
There’s other moves I would make before trading Weber -as you have indicated re: Domi Dumba.  Losing The unproven Fleury or Juulsen is purely speculative on their value until we see what they do next year but aren’t they protected from ED as RFA’s just like Brook? 
I’m hoping for the development of Harris, Struble and Norlinder and even Brook just for depth 

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4 hours ago, maas_art said:

So, if we have another crap off season where we do nothing then going from 9th to 16th was a mistake. But if MB does actually turn around & make key moves  - Get a quality backup, shore up our LD, somehow manage to land an elite scoring winger - then that draft drop will be worth it.

    Agree with this .... I wasn't a fan of losing the draft positions from the get go but we can't change that fact and we all learned a lot from this ...who knew Suzuki and KK would perform so well in their first play-off experience ? As per normal I think it's still the same story ..I like our speed but not our size or finish ... It'll be interesting to see what Bergevin does or doesn't come up with .

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

Knowing that MB will NOT trade Weber, what if you make a trade (domi + ___ for Dumba) that allows you to play Weber as your #2 RD.   This allows you to tax him less, and free up Petry (who may have more trade value right now to a contender not looking for a player signed long).  You ideally use Petry to bring in a top pairing LD like Byram. 

You lose Domi, Petry, maybe Mete + Poehling

but your top 4 becomes:

Byram - Dumba
Romanov - Weber

and if either of those LD falter you can use Kulak or Chiarot for a short term solution. 

The UFA pool this year on D is exceedingly weak. You have Pietrangelo on the right, you ave Hamonic and Brodie from Calgary who both prefer playing the right side, and you have Krug who is the only decent LHD, outside of maybe Vatanen, who is an injury question mark. Would I sign Vatanen on a prove-it contract at a reasonable amount? Probably. I feel like Krug is going to get 6.5 to 7M from someone on a long-term deal, which is a questionable contract to offer up. So I'm pretty much writing off the UFA pool as being a source of a top-pairing LHD for us. And if we go into the season with an unproven Romanov who hasn't played a game in North America and a bunch of 3rd-pairing guys, we're not going anywhere.

That brings us to what we've talked about, which is the possibility of making a trade for someone. It's the same place we were in last season with the exception being that we maybe have some new commodities we're willing to part with... Petry and Tatar being on expiring contracts, Domi being somewhat in the doghouse and not having a real position and being due a new contract as an RFA, even Byron being maybe a bit of an odd man out, and Poehling who seems to have fallen out of favor. There are options from our end of guys who have become expendable, as we have lots of middle-of-the-lineup talent but not enough at the top end. The problem I see with the guys on expiring contracts is we somewhat missed our window at the trade deadline. You deal a Petry or a Tatar and give the other team an affordable contract for two playoff runs, and you're going to get a decent return. If you trade them now, you're selling an expiring contract for one playoff run, after which the re-up is going to be more expensive. And the kicker this year is that no one knows for sure there's going to be a season played out in 2020-21.

Imagine you're a GM of a contender, like Colorado or Vegas or Tampa or Philly or so on. You see a shot at a Cup run, but if you give away a top prospect or a first-round pick, there's always a slight chance that COVID gets worse and the season gets delayed or canceled altogether. There's a chance you've given up a great potential piece for nothing if it's a guy you're getting on an expiring contract. Would Colorado trade us Byram for a Petry or Tatar knowing that there's chance he plays 40-50 games in the regular season and then the playoffs are just canceled? Expiring contract players this year are an added risk because of COVID and I think that drops their value down, which is why MB blew it to not trade 1-2 of them last deadline.

So coming back to what we can do, I think Domi for Dumba as a base of a trade is a great start. Like I said, the rumors are there that Minny believes Domi could be a cheap fix as a top 6 center. We also know they've looked at dealing one of Brodin or Dumba to find a center, and while Brodin seems like a more obvious choice to fill our left side, I've already outlined why I think Dumba is the smarter move for us. I know I've also been clear that I think Petry is a better player right now than Weber but frankly I would trade whichever one brought us the better return and if that happens to be Weber, I would re-sign Petry to an extension... right now, I really wonder if Weber has more trade value though as we head into unchartered COVID territory where you maybe want players who are committed to you more than one season.

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I’m sure I’ve commented on this in the past whenever Minnesota and Brodin and Dumba get mentioned. Brodin and Dumba are 27 and 26 years old, respectively. I can’t help but wonder why they are the pieces Minnesota is looking to trade for a Center? It just doesn’t sit right with me... There is something intriguing about Dumba, particularly his shot. Lots of goals, but what’s up with his assists? That number is surprisingly low, you’d think he’d create more just on rebounds alone. Regardless, 26 years old, great shot, why would he be on the trade table? That’s a guy you’d think you’d want to build around. Brodin I understand a little better. Not bad but not good, 2nd pair type. A little older and doesn’t seem to have shown any signs of having another level to his game. But still a decent enough looking 2nd pair LD, under 30 years old, why trade him either? If I were Minnesota I’d be looking at moving Parise, Koivu, Suter, not players well under 30

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Julien with a presser today.  I didnt see it but read the snips from Basu, Engels et al. Some highlights:

- Julien feels 100% - so good that if they had won the last game on friday he would have come back to TO to get into the bubble again.

- Will be back coaching next year

- The organization is very high on Romanov & feels he will be ready to take on a significant role next year.  (read between the lines: we arent getting any more D this summer)

- Downplayed Danaults comments about wanting to be in a more offensive role. This is good news because it sounds like Claude intends to play him behind JK and Suzuki.

- Likes Domi as a Centre.   My math indicates we have 4 centres who all believe they should be on the top 2 lines... something has to give. 

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