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2019-20 State Of The Habs


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2 hours ago, campabee82 said:

I feel like with the recall of Folin that puts Mete in the press box. 

We shall see but we have only 6 dmen up.  I believe Folin was called up to sit in the press box. Maybe he draws in for Scandella (who hasnt been great lately) but until Mete is actually scratched for Folin i think its a bit premature to hang Julien. 

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34 minutes ago, maas_art said:

We shall see but we have only 6 dmen up.  I believe Folin was called up to sit in the press box. Maybe he draws in for Scandella (who hasnt been great lately) but until Mete is actually scratched for Folin i think its a bit premature to hang Julien. 

Yeah, not sold on Mete being scratched yet ... while yes he has 0 pts in his last 10, he's also +5 over that stretch and has played well.    

Scandella has 1A in his last 10 and is +1, Kulak has 1A and is +7 ... so I don't see any of those 3 actually being scratched.   Folin probably sits in the press box and is insurance against injuries/flu over the last stretch.

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1 hour ago, CaptWelly said:

Suzuki gained the trust by playing "smart" hockey. He has great hockey sense or smarts which not all "talented" players have. You gain trust by playing a complete game. He also has an over 50% face off rate so far. Hockey IQ actually does make a difference. Gretsky was never the fastest or strongest or has the best shot or moves but he was the smartest player on the ice most nights. Suzuki is older at 20 and stronger on his skates than JK who is still only 19 playing a lot of top minutes in Laval isn't going to hurt him just the opposite hopefully. Zadina with Detroit same draft has played more in Grand Rapids than Detroit this season and last. The AHL is the development league. We all want instant results every player is different some take a little longer and he is still only 19. Fluerry will play top minutes also in Laval. He won't be down there forever. 

Suzuki has gained the trust by smart play and having decent line mates which certainly helps his confidence, Poehiling on the other hand has toiled on the 4th line playing with scrubs losing all the confidence he may have had.  The kid deserves a way better chance than the one he has had, it takes time for chemistry between players to develop.  Remember Poehiling missed a lot of the pre season with a concussion which Suzuki didn't have.  Watching Cousins on the PP is as dismal display of poor coaching I have ever seen and tells me exactly where this team is headed. 

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1 hour ago, campabee82 said:

Except no-one would be upset if JK being sent down meant more time for say a Hudon or Evans to get a shot but the issue is we are giving his ice time to the likes of Wiese, Weal and Cousins and we are also talking about Fleury who for the most part has been one of the best D men on the team this year going down to bring up Folin not Brooks. These are stupid moves by desperate men who know they are on their way out if we miss the playoffs and will try anything to save their jobs.

Some of us forget that players are also “employees” who loyally signed with “the company” to try to perform at a high level  Perhaps culture of the organization is more important than specific players/ youngsters and management is attempting to return or reward some loyalty as much as possible. When youngsters or newcomers see shabby treatment (throw away and discard) extended to veterans who have given effort, it is not inspiring. JK, Poehling, Fleury, Evans (IMO Hudon has been given ample stints), Brooks etc., are going to be with us well past the trade deadline and likely will be given substantial future opportunities. Surely they can suck it up for  Weise Weal Cousins Folin for the short term without their development being harmed. These latter vets are most certainly gone and are long shots for any draft pick compensation

Just an alternative thought 

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3 hours ago, campabee82 said:

Couple of notes today

1. Folin Recalled

2. Due to the illness in the locker room only Drouin, Weal, Poehling and Lindgren skated

3. Price apparently has the flu and is questionable for tomorrow

4. Looking at the Habs lineup and players returning from injury you will notice something significant. The only players who don't require waivers now are Suzuki and Poehling when Drouin and Byron return we will be at 24 players meaning one has to be sent to Laval (Poehling I assume) of the remaining 23 players only Mete and Suzuki will be under 24 and I feel like with the recall of Folin that puts Mete in the press box. so we will lineup Chiarot-Weber, Kulak-Petry, Scandella-Folin leaving just 20 year old Nick Suzuki as the only player on the active roster under 24 to skate tomorrow at least. Who says CJ doesn't hate young guys? Once again he is playing experience over skill and MB is caving to his choices. 

 

2 hours ago, arpem-can said:

If it's true that the flu is going around the clubhouse then that changes perspective  ...this season unfortunately is a wash and I'm usually optimistic ...I think bringing Folin up might be giving a chance to show case him for a trade ...a 5th but a 4th would be more than acceptable  ...

 

1 hour ago, maas_art said:

We shall see but we have only 6 dmen up.  I believe Folin was called up to sit in the press box. Maybe he draws in for Scandella (who hasnt been great lately) but until Mete is actually scratched for Folin i think its a bit premature to hang Julien. 

1. I think they sent Fleury and Kotkaniemi down to get ice time and confidence. Personally I'm fine with those decisions. I'm not fine with JK sitting in the press box or playing the 4th line while lesser guys play above him, but if they're getting him ice under Bouchard, that's okay by me. The rest of the season doesn't matter too much anyways, so may as well to the best thing for future development. I suspect they will be considered for recalls after the trade deadline.

2. Poehling is a likely candidate to go back down once Drouin is back, and that's also fine.

3. I don't think Folin's recall has anything to do with Folin directly. As Jedi said, I think Folin is being recalled to be the 7th D man. They want to give Brook and Fleury and so on playing time in the AHL. So the best recall in this case is a guy who doesn't have much future in your organization and who can act as a spare part while you're on a road trip, in case you need an emergency 7th D man. For home games, you don't need to bring an additional guy with you, but for away games, you kind of do in case a player gets a last-minute flu or an injury during warm-up or so on.

4. Hopefully, the Habs can clear out some of the players taking up roster spots... Thompson, Weal, Cousins, Folin, Scandella, etc. by the deadline. They can let look at recalling JK, Poehling, Evans, Fleury, Brook, Primeau, or whoever else they want after that. I don't think the demotions now have much to do with who they would lose on waivers. If we lost Weise or Weal for nothing, I don't think anyone would cry too much. They have next to no value as is. Guessing MB wants to keep them around until the deadline and see if he can get anything small, but if not, you move on thereafter.

 

 

 

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39 minutes ago, 26NCounting said:

 Watching Cousins on the PP is as dismal display of poor coaching I have ever seen and tells me exactly where this team is headed. 

This right here.

When Cousins was first put on the PP it was an attempt to get something - anything - going and he did well.  (same as Weal last year after we acquired him).  But when your 4th liner, playing well above his weight class, starts to cool off, its time to take him off the PP.  

Its fine to use a guy like Cousins or Weal or Peca on the PP for a few games or when you're trying something but for 40+ games?  Come on guys. 

Our PP time for the seaon goes (in order of PP time per game):  
Drouin, Kovalchuk, Domi, Petry Weber, Tatar, Gallagher, Suzuki, Armia...  ok decent... 

and then...

Weal, Kotkaniemi, Cousins, Danault, Reilly, Hudon, Poehling, Lekhonen, Byron 

 

Now, im not saying Danault, Poehling, Lehkonen or Byron are guys i necessarily want on my top PP units (and i understand they play PK etc)  but compared with Weal and Cousins?   No way on earth should either of those guys have more PP time than Danault, Poehling, and most importantly JK. 

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22 minutes ago, arpem-can said:

I'm as optimistic as you man but when I see the one between Florida and Toronto playing games in hand  I'm a little less confident especially if it's a 3 point game .

Yeah.  As long as they are mathematically alive I usually have some hope but unless we suddenly got on a 10 or 12 game winning streak or something, im not holding my breath.  Even if we did manage to win our next 12 games in a row, we'd still likely have to play at a better clip than we've done all year for the remaining games after that and I just dont see it as being possible. 

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27 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Yeah.  As long as they are mathematically alive I usually have some hope but unless we suddenly got on a 10 or 12 game winning streak or something, im not holding my breath.  Even if we did manage to win our next 12 games in a row, we'd still likely have to play at a better clip than we've done all year for the remaining games after that and I just dont see it as being possible. 

My close to death moment was in the 3rd period with about 7 minutes left in the game and trailing against Columbus they had no shots on net for the whole PP

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my thoughts:

kk to the minors-

its honestly about time. he needs to be there and I do not want to see him back up this year. If we want him to be at LEAST a 2nd line C, he needs to be the go to guy on the farm, play pk. pp, 20 minutes, rack up points, all of that. he isnt accomplishing anything in the NHL right now. would I be down to have him get those kind of opportunities with the big club sure, but he wont. poehling should be right behind him and same for fleury

making the playoffs-

its been over for a while now. we are not making the playoffs.

the bigger picture here is this talk of selling, which is a sad joke because we will be continuing to operate under the illusion that we can maybe squeak in and then anything can happen! thats the bergeplan and as long as he is employed, which he certainly still will be next year, we will be sticking to. that means no one of significance is going anywhere, and we will be playing a full plug roster in a joke of an attempt to make the playoffs/showcase our plugs for potential useless trades.

 

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3 hours ago, maas_art said:

This right here.

When Cousins was first put on the PP it was an attempt to get something - anything - going and he did well.  (same as Weal last year after we acquired him).  But when your 4th liner, playing well above his weight class, starts to cool off, its time to take him off the PP.  

Its fine to use a guy like Cousins or Weal or Peca on the PP for a few games or when you're trying something but for 40+ games?  Come on guys. 

Our PP time for the seaon goes (in order of PP time per game):  
Drouin, Kovalchuk, Domi, Petry Weber, Tatar, Gallagher, Suzuki, Armia...  ok decent... 

and then...

Weal, Kotkaniemi, Cousins, Danault, Reilly, Hudon, Poehling, Lekhonen, Byron 

 

Now, im not saying Danault, Poehling, Lehkonen or Byron are guys i necessarily want on my top PP units (and i understand they play PK etc)  but compared with Weal and Cousins?   No way on earth should either of those guys have more PP time than Danault, Poehling, and most importantly JK. 

If you were going to choose which players should get the most PP time and you did it based on things like skill, you would probably go with

- a 1st group of guys like Suzuki, Kovalchuk, Drouin, Tatar, Weber, Petry, Kotkaniemi, and Domi. Guys you think of as being good with the puck and/or great passers and/or great shooters.

- as a 2nd grouping, guys who have offensive ability but where you don't think of them as much as being great puck-handlers or shooters... guys like Gallagher, Armia, Lehkonen, Byron, Mete, and Danault

- then you have maybe a 3rd grouping of players who might be younger but able to contribute something, like a Hudon with some skill or a Poehling with size and some ability to play the puck too. I would maybe throw Cousins into this group but at the bottom, and maybe a guy like Scandella or Kulak as well.

- At the bottom of the pile would be guys with little to no offensive skill and/or finish. Guys like Thompson who can't seem to finish anything or Weal who isn't very strong on the puck or Weise who tries but seems to lack agility and coordination. I just don't see a reason for any of these guys to ever hit the ice on the PP, and even the 3rd grouping shouldn't get a regular turn.

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3 hours ago, arpem-can said:

I'm as optimistic as you man but when I see the one between Florida and Toronto playing games in hand  I'm a little less confident especially if it's a 3 point game .

 

2 hours ago, maas_art said:

Yeah.  As long as they are mathematically alive I usually have some hope but unless we suddenly got on a 10 or 12 game winning streak or something, im not holding my breath.  Even if we did manage to win our next 12 games in a row, we'd still likely have to play at a better clip than we've done all year for the remaining games after that and I just dont see it as being possible. 

Sportsclubstats has us at 1.6% odds right, and as it stands, the odds of making the playoffs would be below 50% even if we got to 97 points. 98 points is the first level where we have a better than 1 in 2 chance. To get to 98, we're talking about a record of 21-6-1 the rest of the way. That's a better-than-.750 record.

To put that in perspective, the Caps are first overall with a .705 winning percentage. The mighty Bruins lead our division at .698. The Blues are 1st in the West at .604, and the Canucks lead the Pacific at .557. So why would a .509 team like us suddenly be able to play > .750 hockey the rest of the way? Even when we had a nice start through our first 20 games, we went 11-5-4, which was a .650 winning percentage. That record, as good as it is, the rest of the way would give us 91 points and only a 0.5% chance of making the post-season. It's over, and we should be doing what we need to do to help our roster for next year. Any other plan is delusional. I get it if you're a fan and want to believe, I have no problem with that. But for a GM, it's not acceptable.

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17 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

 

Sportsclubstats has us at 1.6% odds right, and as it stands, the odds of making the playoffs would be below 50% even if we got to 97 points. 98 points is the first level where we have a better than 1 in 2 chance. To get to 98, we're talking about a record of 21-6-1 the rest of the way. That's a better-than-.750 record.

To put that in perspective, the Caps are first overall with a .705 winning percentage. The mighty Bruins lead our division at .698. The Blues are 1st in the West at .604, and the Canucks lead the Pacific at .557. So why would a .509 team like us suddenly be able to play > .750 hockey the rest of the way? Even when we had a nice start through our first 20 games, we went 11-5-4, which was a .650 winning percentage. That record, as good as it is, the rest of the way would give us 91 points and only a 0.5% chance of making the post-season. It's over, and we should be doing what we need to do to help our roster for next year. Any other plan is delusional. I get it if you're a fan and want to believe, I have no problem with that. But for a GM, it's not acceptable.

And perhaps this is the real reason for sending KK and Fluery to Laval is to start dropping in the standings. I doubt it but purhaps MB sees our chances and is moving the younger guys to the farm so they can get playoff experience and confidence while not setting a losing environment on them the vets won't be affected by losing as much so no fear there but even if that's the case I still don't see any significant trades that would net an additional first round pick and we will probably ice 85% of the same team next year as we did this year but IF we remain healthier than this year at the deadline next year we should be in the playoff picture and if that's the case MB or whoever is the GM will make moves

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I didn't think Fleury was actually playing that badly ...his transition to the NHL is almost as surprising as Suzuki ...that being said I think bringing Folin up is all about trade value for a draft pick .Bergevin might as well send Poehling down and give other guys a chance who aren't going to be with this team next year anyway ala Barber and Belzile etc …as long as Bergevin doesn't trade an asset like Petry all Montreal will get are 4th 5th and 6th rounders ...may Kovy gets a 2nd but probably a 3rd  otherwise sign him for less than market for 2 more years to help Romanov transition 

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8 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

Ya know, I like Thompson, he kills penalties, is very good at FOs (54%), and thumps people, I want to keep him.

agreed on this ..Thompson still has decent wheels and is a great teammate ….even if he's a deadline guy I still think Montreal could sign him back at $1 mill for 1 yr. ...I think he'll be a depth guy teams will want in the play-offs ...so ..a 4th rounder ? ….but more likely a 5th 

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29 minutes ago, arpem-can said:

agreed on this ..Thompson still has decent wheels and is a great teammate ….even if he's a deadline guy I still think Montreal could sign him back at $1 mill for 1 yr. ...I think he'll be a depth guy teams will want in the play-offs ...so ..a 4th rounder ? ….but more likely a 5th 

I don’t see value in trading Thompson for a 4th or a 5th - better to keep his veteran presence around our team if there’s intent to retain him next year 

As to other players for sale, we like many other fan bases think our players are worth more than reality - I agree with someone else that unless we get firsts or seconds and a decent prospect then any of our Key starters can stay where they are to improve chemistry 

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1 hour ago, claremont said:

I don’t see value in trading Thompson for a 4th or a 5th - better to keep his veteran presence around our team if there’s intent to retain him next year 

As to other players for sale, we like many other fan bases think our players are worth more than reality - I agree with someone else that unless we get firsts or seconds and a decent prospect then any of our Key starters can stay where they are to improve chemistry 

actually I don't think any of the so-called fringe players are bad hockey players ...all of them give 100% and have decent skating skills ( they just don't score much ...but who does on the 4th line ? ) ...Montreal has 10 games before the deadline ( 6 on the road ) ...it be interesting to see if Bergevin  does anything significant ...though I'm not expecting it 

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2 hours ago, claremont said:

I don’t see value in trading Thompson for a 4th or a 5th - better to keep his veteran presence around our team if there’s intent to retain him next year 

As to other players for sale, we like many other fan bases think our players are worth more than reality - I agree with someone else that unless we get firsts or seconds and a decent prospect then any of our Key starters can stay where they are to improve chemistry 

The problem with keeping Nate has nothing to do with him specifically but more with the coach. If we keep Nate as a depth option and vet presence CJ will play him over Poehling or any other young guy and if you want Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, Danault and Poehling down the middle someone else has to move or be traded. We would also have Domi as an option down the middle even though he will probably be moved to the wing.

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2 hours ago, claremont said:

I don’t see value in trading Thompson for a 4th or a 5th - better to keep his veteran presence around our team if there’s intent to retain him next year 

As to other players for sale, we like many other fan bases think our players are worth more than reality - I agree with someone else that unless we get firsts or seconds and a decent prospect then any of our Key starters can stay where they are to improve chemistry 

Considering he got the A when Gallagher was injured, I suspect that MB wont trade him unless the return exceeds his value to the team (2nd or better) and honestly i dont think anyone would pay close to that for Nate but i guess you never know, if a team was desperate for a defensive centre with experience... 

Now, having said that, the real question is: do we need him next year. Because if we have no intention of resigning him this summer then maybe he's expendable for a 3rd or a decent prospect. Tough call. He eats some pretty tough minutes that im not convinced anyone on the roster is ready to take just yet. 

 

34 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

The problem with keeping Nate has nothing to do with him specifically but more with the coach. If we keep Nate as a depth option and vet presence CJ will play him over Poehling or any other young guy and if you want Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, Danault and Poehling down the middle someone else has to move or be traded. We would also have Domi as an option down the middle even though he will probably be moved to the wing.

Sorry but Poehling isnt close to being ready right now.  Honestly he probably should be in the AHL.  He's physically mature but he had a lot a things he needs to work on in his transition from NCAA to the pro leagues.  I like him and i think he's going to be great but its going to take time. The only person pushing Ryan Poehling down the lineup is Ryan Poehling.  Thompson is not holding him back...yet.  I dont disagree that a year or two down the road he might. 

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25 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Sorry but Poehling isnt close to being ready right now.  Honestly he probably should be in the AHL.  He's physically mature but he had a lot a things he needs to work on in his transition from NCAA to the pro leagues.  I like him and i think he's going to be great but its going to take time. The only person pushing Ryan Poehling down the lineup is Ryan Poehling.  Thompson is not holding him back...yet.  I dont disagree that a year or two down the road he might. 

Yeah I meant if we resigning him and keeping him for next year. Even if you don't think Poehling is ready we still have 4 better options than Thompson right now in Danault, Suzuki, Kotkaniemi and Domi who are or will be ready next fall. I don't mind keeping him but only if Domi is moved to the wing but Domi doesn't tend to do well there. 

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42 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

Yeah I meant if we resigning him and keeping him for next year. Even if you don't think Poehling is ready we still have 4 better options than Thompson right now in Danault, Suzuki, Kotkaniemi and Domi who are or will be ready next fall. I don't mind keeping him but only if Domi is moved to the wing but Domi doesn't tend to do well there. 

We do have many better options than Thompson yes - but - every one of those guys needs to be in the top 6 or at least top 9.    Thompson is a 4th line player.  I dont want Suzuki, JK, Domi or Danault playing on the 4th line.   Poehling is the only guy who Thompson is likely to displace at this point but even then, if Ryan Poehling is ready to go next year you can always play Nate on the wing.

Again, im not advocating to not trade him, simply that there's no real point in trading him for the sake of trading him. If the return is good im all for it. If the return is moderate and he's not in our plans for next year then thats fine too.   Ultimately though, it goes back to the crux of the problem with MB: does he even have a plan? 

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4 minutes ago, maas_art said:

We do have many better options than Thompson yes - but - every one of those guys needs to be in the top 6 or at least top 9.    Thompson is a 4th line player.  I dont want Suzuki, JK, Domi or Danault playing on the 4th line.   Poehling is the only guy who Thompson is likely to displace at this point but even then, if Ryan Poehling is ready to go next year you can always play Nate on the wing.

Again, im not advocating to not trade him, simply that there's no real point in trading him for the sake of trading him. If the return is good im all for it. If the return is moderate and he's not in our plans for next year then thats fine too.   Ultimately though, it goes back to the crux of the problem with MB: does he even have a plan? 

MB definitely has a plan

 

 

he just hasn't figured it out yet!!!!

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