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2019-20 State Of The Habs


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18 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

KK had a 2 point night both assists as the Rocket lost in OT 3-2. Laval was handed 5 straight penalties before Belleville got 1 so typical reffing for a Montreal team LOL 

Training them for the big team obviously.:rolleyes:

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27 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

KK had a 2 point night both assists as the Rocket lost in OT 3-2. Laval was handed 5 straight penalties before Belleville got 1 so typical reffing for a Montreal team LOL 

Got a point, tho. :)

 

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3 hours ago, CANADIENS27 said:

Defense and winning the goaltending battle.  

 

 

And that is what also wins in the playoffs. High scoring run n gun win during the seasons but defense wins championships. St. Louis played hard structured hockey. With only Terensenko as the only "elite" game breaker talent. O'Reilly is a great player but more the two great center. 

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Not sure I would go so far as to say defense won that game for us last night. It looked more like we were sitting on an invisible lead for 2 periods until they scored and woke us up. At that point we had 12 shots on goal. Tough to win games that way. When we pushed the play after their goal, we were a different team. 

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2 hours ago, H_T_L said:

Not sure I would go so far as to say defense won that game for us last night. It looked more like we were sitting on an invisible lead for 2 periods until they scored and woke us up. At that point we had 12 shots on goal. Tough to win games that way. When we pushed the play after their goal, we were a different team. 

The Laffs only had 1 shot on goal in the third period so the Habs defense must have had some role in the win. 

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1 hour ago, HabsAlways said:

He's got 6 assists, 6 PIM, 3 SOG in 3 games

2 points per game in the AHL is EXACTLY what the doctor ordered. Its awesome seeing him able to dominate down there & this should do a lot of good for his progress.

I get the sense that Bouchard and MB talk a lot before call ups and I dont think Bouchard will want MB to call him up until he feels like he's got him on the right path.  Will be interesting to see how this plays out. I think Laval (for a short while) could be really good for him. 

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5 minutes ago, maas_art said:

2 points per game in the AHL is EXACTLY what the doctor ordered. Its awesome seeing him able to dominate down there & this should do a lot of good for his progress.

I get the sense that Bouchard and MB talk a lot before call ups and I dont think Bouchard will want MB to call him up until he feels like he's got him on the right path.  Will be interesting to see how this plays out. I think Laval (for a short while) could be really good for him. 

I think overall it'll be good for any prospect not named Nick Suzuki to be playing down in Laval.

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My guess on what will happen prior to the trade deadline is that we'll end up going 4-3 or 4-2-1, something along the lines of...

- Ari: W

- Bos: W

- Pit: L

- Dal: L

- Det: W

- Was: L

- Ott: W

Not quite good enough to be clearly in the playoff race but tempting enough for Bergevin to be confused about what he should do.

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5 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

My guess on what will happen prior to the trade deadline is that we'll end up going 4-3 or 4-2-1, something along the lines of...

- Ari: W

- Bos: W

- Pit: L

- Dal: L

- Det: W

- Was: L

- Ott: W

Not quite good enough to be clearly in the playoff race but tempting enough for Bergevin to be confused about what he should do.

Ahha yeah, sounds about right.

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6 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

My guess on what will happen prior to the trade deadline is that we'll end up going 4-3 or 4-2-1, something along the lines of...

- Ari: W

- Bos: W

- Pit: L

- Dal: L

- Det: W

- Was: L

- Ott: W

Not quite good enough to be clearly in the playoff race but tempting enough for Bergevin to be confused about what he should do.

Problem is we have shown all season that we can beat all of those teams so we could just as easily go 7-0-0 as we could 0-7-0 do I expect either of those NO but it is a possibility this year cause we are so unpredictable with results.

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20 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

Problem is we have shown all season that we can beat all of those teams so we could just as easily go 7-0-0 as we could 0-7-0 do I expect either of those NO but it is a possibility this year cause we are so unpredictable with results.

Sure, anything is possible. But we all think the team will have to go at least 18-7 to make the playoffs. So my question is, what record int he next 7 games makes accomplishing that realistic after the deadline? If you go 7-0 in the next 7, then you need to go 11-7 in the last 18. That's certainly doable, even if it's not easy. If you go 6-1 or 5-2, then it gets harder but maybe you have something of a shot at getting the 18 wins you need total.

If you go 4-3 or worse before the deadline, then you need to go at least 14-4 afterwards. And while nothing is technically impossible, it would be extremely unlikely. If you drop 3 of 7, there's nothing to suggest you can avoid dropping more than 4 of the last 18.

Bergevin will need to make his call at the latest after the Ottawa game. That's all the information he's going to get. Yes, if we go 0-7 or 2-5, we're clear sellers. If we go 6-1 or 7-0, we're probably standing pat. But at what point in the middle is it enough to throw in the towel and say the likelihood of the playoff push is so low that it warrants selling players? Is it 4-3? It is 4-2-1? Is it even as high as 5-2? Even if you go 5-2, you could still be looking at no better than a 5-10% chance of the playoffs... is that enough to not be a seller at the deadline?

IMO, 5-2 is the absolute minimum the Habs would have to play over the next 7 to avoid being a seller. If we're 4-3 or 4-2-1 as I predicted, I think we have to avoid becoming emotionally attached to an outside shot and a run and be realistic about improving our team in the long run. That being said, I think the chances of MB moving Tatar, Weber, Petry, or Price are all virtually nil at this point, so I'm not sure any trade we make is going to be that fruitful outside of maybe dealing Kovalchuk.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Sure, anything is possible. But we all think the team will have to go at least 18-7 to make the playoffs. So my question is, what record int he next 7 games makes accomplishing that realistic after the deadline? If you go 7-0 in the next 7, then you need to go 11-7 in the last 18. That's certainly doable, even if it's not easy. If you go 6-1 or 5-2, then it gets harder but maybe you have something of a shot at getting the 18 wins you need total.

If you go 4-3 or worse before the deadline, then you need to go at least 14-4 afterwards. And while nothing is technically impossible, it would be extremely unlikely. If you drop 3 of 7, there's nothing to suggest you can avoid dropping more than 4 of the last 18.

Bergevin will need to make his call at the latest after the Ottawa game. That's all the information he's going to get. Yes, if we go 0-7 or 2-5, we're clear sellers. If we go 6-1 or 7-0, we're probably standing pat. But at what point in the middle is it enough to throw in the towel and say the likelihood of the playoff push is so low that it warrants selling players? Is it 4-3? It is 4-2-1? Is it even as high as 5-2? Even if you go 5-2, you could still be looking at no better than a 5-10% chance of the playoffs... is that enough to not be a seller at the deadline?

IMO, 5-2 is the absolute minimum the Habs would have to play over the next 7 to avoid being a seller. If we're 4-3 or 4-2-1 as I predicted, I think we have to avoid becoming emotionally attached to an outside shot and a run and be realistic about improving our team in the long run. That being said, I think the chances of MB moving Tatar, Weber, Petry, or Price are all virtually nil at this point, so I'm not sure any trade we make is going to be that fruitful outside of maybe dealing Kovalchuk.

We can only control what we do ourselves. That said if we go 6-1 or 5-2 and Florida and Toronto are stumbling teams we still play. It can make the picture look a lot different. We absolutely need to win division and conference games. 

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Sure, anything is possible. But we all think the team will have to go at least 18-7 to make the playoffs. So my question is, what record int he next 7 games makes accomplishing that realistic after the deadline? If you go 7-0 in the next 7, then you need to go 11-7 in the last 18. That's certainly doable, even if it's not easy. If you go 6-1 or 5-2, then it gets harder but maybe you have something of a shot at getting the 18 wins you need total.

If you go 4-3 or worse before the deadline, then you need to go at least 14-4 afterwards. And while nothing is technically impossible, it would be extremely unlikely. If you drop 3 of 7, there's nothing to suggest you can avoid dropping more than 4 of the last 18.

Bergevin will need to make his call at the latest after the Ottawa game. That's all the information he's going to get. Yes, if we go 0-7 or 2-5, we're clear sellers. If we go 6-1 or 7-0, we're probably standing pat. But at what point in the middle is it enough to throw in the towel and say the likelihood of the playoff push is so low that it warrants selling players? Is it 4-3? It is 4-2-1? Is it even as high as 5-2? Even if you go 5-2, you could still be looking at no better than a 5-10% chance of the playoffs... is that enough to not be a seller at the deadline?

IMO, 5-2 is the absolute minimum the Habs would have to play over the next 7 to avoid being a seller. If we're 4-3 or 4-2-1 as I predicted, I think we have to avoid becoming emotionally attached to an outside shot and a run and be realistic about improving our team in the long run. That being said, I think the chances of MB moving Tatar, Weber, Petry, or Price are all virtually nil at this point, so I'm not sure any trade we make is going to be that fruitful outside of maybe dealing Kovalchuk.

Quite honestly I wouldn't mind a bit if we were quiet at the deadline this year. Look at what we have accomplished this year even with all of the crap we have been through this team is still legitimately in the playoff hunt. It may be an outside shot but we are sitting 5 points out with 7 games to go before the deadline. Two weeks ago we were 10 points back. While I don't expect this team to all have the same kind of career years they did last season I also don't expect them to have as much of a let down year as they have had this year. So what do I expect is somewhere in between which is Price to be Price, Gallagher to put up 30+ goals for the 4th time in 5 years Drouin, Tatar and Danault to continue to be top players, Petry and Weber to be their usual selves and Suzuki, Domi, Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Mete, Lehkonen and Armia to continue to develop. Now you potentially add Kovalchuk, Caufield and Romanov to the mix plus whatever trades and signings we do in the off season and we will looking pretty damn good next season. I still believe that we are not out of it yet this season either even with the 2 8 game losing streaks. So yeah I would only make trades that improves the team both now and in the future.

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2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

My guess on what will happen prior to the trade deadline is that we'll end up going 4-3 or 4-2-1, something along the lines of...

- Ari: W

- Bos: W

- Pit: L

- Dal: L

- Det: W

- Was: L

- Ott: W

Not quite good enough to be clearly in the playoff race but tempting enough for Bergevin to be confused about what he should do.

I think they are going to take it one game at a time. Their backs are against the wall so they will keep it simple, play shift by shift, and pay the price. They will play their A game and compete for 60 minutes - leaving it all out on the ice.


Sorry, ran out of cliches.   Seriously though, its tought to tell how this Jeckyl and Hyde group will play out those 7 games. I could easily see them winning all 7 or losing all 7. Your guess of (roughly) 50/50 is probably about right but im holding out hope that we manage to win say, 5 or more of those 7 games.

From a real world stand point, Weber's injury - and whether he's out long term - will potentially  play a big role in this. Replacing Weber in our top 4 with any of the options we have will be problematic. He's not travelling with the team so that means he's likely not in any of the Arizona, Boston or Pittsburgh games.  Earliest he could be in uniform is Saturday against Dallas but its tough to say exactly what the problem is because (as usual) the team is being hush hush.

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24 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I think they are going to take it one game at a time. Their backs are against the wall so they will keep it simple, play shift by shift, and pay the price. They will play their A game and compete for 60 minutes - leaving it all out on the ice.


Sorry, ran out of cliches.   Seriously though, its tought to tell how this Jeckyl and Hyde group will play out those 7 games. I could easily see them winning all 7 or losing all 7. Your guess of (roughly) 50/50 is probably about right but im holding out hope that we manage to win say, 5 or more of those 7 games.

From a real world stand point, Weber's injury - and whether he's out long term - will potentially  play a big role in this. Replacing Weber in our top 4 with any of the options we have will be problematic. He's not travelling with the team so that means he's likely not in any of the Arizona, Boston or Pittsburgh games.  Earliest he could be in uniform is Saturday against Dallas but its tough to say exactly what the problem is because (as usual) the team is being hush hush.

In Weber's case, the team has already announced that he's not expected to play against Dallas either, albeit I guess that could change. The other thing Julien said which is concerning is that they haven't been able to give Weber a diagnosis yet. That would suggest there's probably a decent amount of swelling that's impeding them. It also means it's more likely to be something like a foot, ankle, or knee rather than a simple muscle pull or broken bone.

That said, I look at the overall picture as good news and good timing. In our 7 games before the deadline, we have 4 really strong teams in Dallas, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Boston. If you want to go 5-2 or 6-1 at a minimum to not sell assets, then you have to show that you can beat those teams and maybe do it without one of your best players. If you can do that, then you earn MB's trust to not dispatch key players at the deadline. To me, this is a better situation than having 5-6 easy games leading up to the deadline and a bunch of tougher ones right after, whereby you lure yourself into thinking you're still in it, then lose a few right after the deadline and sink out of it without having recouped any future assets. Better to have the tougher tests up front and know where we stand by deadline time.

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38 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

In Weber's case, the team has already announced that he's not expected to play against Dallas either, albeit I guess that could change. The other thing Julien said which is concerning is that they haven't been able to give Weber a diagnosis yet. That would suggest there's probably a decent amount of swelling that's impeding them. It also means it's more likely to be something like a foot, ankle, or knee rather than a simple muscle pull or broken bone.

Yeah, especially given this team's proclivity towards fibbing about injuries you have to worry a bit.  Julien said a couple of times that it didnt have to do with a blocked shot but if thats the case it really makes you wonder what it is... Im worried its joint, not a muscle. 

38 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

That said, I look at the overall picture as good news and good timing. In our 7 games before the deadline, we have 4 really strong teams in Dallas, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Boston. If you want to go 5-2 or 6-1 at a minimum to not sell assets, then you have to show that you can beat those teams and maybe do it without one of your best players. If you can do that, then you earn MB's trust to not dispatch key players at the deadline. To me, this is a better situation than having 5-6 easy games leading up to the deadline and a bunch of tougher ones right after, whereby you lure yourself into thinking you're still in it, then lose a few right after the deadline and sink out of it without having recouped any future assets. Better to have the tougher tests up front and know where we stand by deadline time.

Truth.  If we can win without Weber, all the better. Would be far worse to win 5 of the last 7 games and then lose Weber & absolutely bomb after the TD after we were buyers. 

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5 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Yeah, especially given this team's proclivity towards fibbing about injuries you have to worry a bit.  Julien said a couple of times that it didnt have to do with a blocked shot but if thats the case it really makes you wonder what it is... Im worried its joint, not a muscle. 

Truth.  If we can win without Weber, all the better. Would be far worse to win 5 of the last 7 games and then lose Weber & absolutely bomb after the TD after we were buyers. 

FWIW, Dans Les Coulisses reporting today that they received info that "Habs players do not expect to see Weber back in uniform this season" and that the "thought is that Weber's season is over." They note that this has not been confirmed by a second source though. They add a link to a doctor who watched Weber's last game and notes that he blocked a shot that could have caused injury. His speculation is that there is too much swelling to be able to image the bone clearly but that the Habs might think Weber has a fracture anyways and need to wait to confirm.

If he does have a fracture then we're likely looking at at least 6 weeks to heal, which means his season would be very close to being done... bad news if true, especially considering how weak our D already was even with Weber in the line-up.

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17 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

FWIW, Dans Les Coulisses reporting today that they received info that "Habs players do not expect to see Weber back in uniform this season" and that the "thought is that Weber's season is over." They note that this has not been confirmed by a second source though. They add a link to a doctor who watched Weber's last game and notes that he blocked a shot that could have caused injury. His speculation is that there is too much swelling to be able to image the bone clearly but that the Habs might think Weber has a fracture anyways and need to wait to confirm.

If he does have a fracture then we're likely looking at at least 6 weeks to heal, which means his season would be very close to being done... bad news if true, especially considering how weak our D already was even with Weber in the line-up.

I'm pretty sure he took a shot off his foot/ankle. He slashed the player who took the shot so obviously he wasn't happy.

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2 hours ago, campabee82 said:

Quite honestly I wouldn't mind a bit if we were quiet at the deadline this year. Look at what we have accomplished this year even with all of the crap we have been through this team is still legitimately in the playoff hunt. It may be an outside shot but we are sitting 5 points out with 7 games to go before the deadline. Two weeks ago we were 10 points back. While I don't expect this team to all have the same kind of career years they did last season I also don't expect them to have as much of a let down year as they have had this year. So what do I expect is somewhere in between which is Price to be Price, Gallagher to put up 30+ goals for the 4th time in 5 years Drouin, Tatar and Danault to continue to be top players, Petry and Weber to be their usual selves and Suzuki, Domi, Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Mete, Lehkonen and Armia to continue to develop. Now you potentially add Kovalchuk, Caufield and Romanov to the mix plus whatever trades and signings we do in the off season and we will looking pretty damn good next season. I still believe that we are not out of it yet this season either even with the 2 8 game losing streaks. So yeah I would only make trades that improves the team both now and in the future.

 I tend to be agreement on this ..if there are 3 players you might want to sign back the Habs are better keeping them no matter what ..I'm thinking Kovalchuk , Scandella and Thompson ..If they keep 1 , 2 or 3 them for the rest of the year there's a better chance of signing them before hitting the off-season market and as well at a better contract...also sends a good message to the team ...still I believe Bergevin will unload maybe 2 players ( Weise , Cousins or Weal  , Barber ? ) for picks but they won't be high 

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