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2019-20 State Of The Habs


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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

He lost teeth but there's a decent chance he wont even miss a game.  No fracture, no concussion.  Travelling with the team.  Will likely wear a full face shield.  Poor Tatar (whose shot hit him) you can see how upset he is:
 

Phillip-Danault-Montreal-Canadiens-puck-

 

Uhm... I think thats  a bit of an exaggeration (Bold)  

You make it soudn like they had to pay to get rid of Galchenyuk but they got back a very good player in Zucker. Sure they gave up a great young prospect in Addison but you'd expect that sort of return for Zucker.      I agree with your sentiment that his value is at rock bottom but he wasnt exactly a throw in or salary dump. I suspect Minnesota believes he might bounce back with them & if not, no risk, he's soon to be UFA. 

agreed that Pitts looks like it got the better player for now but Minny might be looking to change things up… so they take 3 yrs at $5.5 in Zucker salary off their cap and get a 1st rounder and a prospect plus a chance they might even flip Gally at deadline  ...that seems  a decent haul for Zucker ...I'm just saying this is Gally's 4th team in a relatively young career so yeah I think they paid a little more to move him for whatever their reasons .

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4 hours ago, arpem-can said:

agreed that Pitts looks like it got the better player for now but Minny might be looking to change things up… so they take 3 yrs at $5.5 in Zucker salary off their cap and get a 1st rounder and a prospect plus a chance they might even flip Gally at deadline  ...that seems  a decent haul for Zucker ...I'm just saying this is Gally's 4th team in a relatively young career so yeah I think they paid a little more to move him for whatever their reasons .

He's on an expiring contract and will hit free agency after this season, so I don't think Pittsburgh needs to pay more just to move him. If they really wanted to get rid of him that bad, they could have just sent him to the minors or pressbox him and wait for his contract to expire without losing any assets. Galchenyuk was rumored to be on the market for some time and apparently wasn't a fit at all with Mike Sullivan. The key parts in the Zucker deal are Pittsburgh's first-round pick (lottery protected, can be pushed to 2021 if need be) and Addison, Galchenyuk was a throw-in (cap/contract limits) and not a deal-breaker either way I think.

As for his career, no doubt the outlook is poor. Given his age though, he's still be a bit of a wild card and maybe on a team like Minnesota he can still be somewhat effective in the top six. We've seen in Montreal that he's not going to produce or add much value on the fourth line, which is also what happened in Pittsburgh. I could see a rebuilding team like the Sens give him a shot next season though, similar to what they did with Duclair.

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The closer we get to the deadline, the more it looks to me like we should be trading of a few pieces with a mind in the future. Now no Weber for the rest of the season... First off, I hope he recovers well. But also, although the idea of being without Weber for the remainder of the season should make it easier for MB to come to terms with the idea of selling at the deadline, Petry was on of the players I had on my “trade list”. I suspect that if there is any doubt in Weber’s ability to be ready to go for the start of next season, this might actually lead MB not to move Petry. Will be very interesting to see how the next week unfolds...

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41 minutes ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

The closer we get to the deadline, the more it looks to me like we should be trading of a few pieces with a mind in the future. Now no Weber for the rest of the season... First off, I hope he recovers well. But also, although the idea of being without Weber for the remainder of the season should make it easier for MB to come to terms with the idea of selling at the deadline, Petry was on of the players I had on my “trade list”. I suspect that if there is any doubt in Weber’s ability to be ready to go for the start of next season, this might actually lead MB not to move Petry 

Conversely , I think as well that the expansion draft in 2021 could will be influence what Montreal does even at this deadline . For example in that draft  does Montreal protect aging veterans like Petry and Weber or will it be players like Mete and Fleury . Maybe trading Petry while his value is high and with a year left on his contract would be the prudent thing to do to keep our younger players on D . Montreal could probably pick up a very good prospect (that won't need to protecting in the draft )  plus probably a 1st draft pick now that Pitts opened the door with Zucker . I don't like giving up when there's still a mathematical chance for les boys but realistically this can be viewed as an opportunity as well if it presents itself before Feb 24 . 

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2 hours ago, arpem-can said:

Conversely , I think as well that the expansion draft in 2021 could will be influence what Montreal does even at this deadline . For example in that draft  does Montreal protect aging veterans like Petry and Weber or will it be players like Mete and Fleury . Maybe trading Petry while his value is high and with a year left on his contract would be the prudent thing to do to keep our younger players on D . Montreal could probably pick up a very good prospect (that won't need to protecting in the draft )  plus probably a 1st draft pick now that Pitts opened the door with Zucker . I don't like giving up when there's still a mathematical chance for les boys but realistically this can be viewed as an opportunity as well if it presents itself before Feb 24 . 

I don’t think I disagree with you. I just question how management is going to navigate the situation.

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Habs playoff chances back down to about 1.5% after tonight's loss. Sportsclubstats is now predicting it'll take 98 points to make the playoffs and that 97 points gives us less than a 50% chance of making the post-season. So to get to 98, we would have to bank 37 points in our last 23 games. That means going 18-4-1 in our last 23 to give ourselves about a 66% chance of getting in. That's an .804 winning percentage. To put that in perspective only 5 teams in the history of the NHL have put up that winning percentage over a season, and the only time it's happened in the past 40 years was the 2012-13 Blackhawks in a lockout-shortened season. Sure, it's easier to do it for a 23 game stretch than a full year, but this isn't the NBA and it's pretty rare for teams to win 18-19 out of 23 games.

We have 5 games to go before the deadline and we probably need to win all of them to not be sellers (and even then that's not a clearcut decision)... those games include road games in Pit and Was and the second half of a B2B against Dallas. You look at the D corps with Weber and it's weak. You look at it without Weber, and it's atrocious. Right now, we're playing with 3 third-pairing guys and two minor-leaguers if you ask me. I'm not sure how anyone can look at this squad as a potential playoff team right now, and I've seen enough to believe we should be sellers at the deadline.

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33 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Habs playoff chances back down to about 1.5% after tonight's loss. Sportsclubstats is now predicting it'll take 98 points to make the playoffs and that 97 points gives us less than a 50% chance of making the post-season. So to get to 98, we would have to bank 37 points in our last 23 games. That means going 18-4-1 in our last 23 to give ourselves about a 66% chance of getting in. That's an .804 winning percentage. To put that in perspective only 5 teams in the history of the NHL have put up that winning percentage over a season, and the only time it's happened in the past 40 years was the 2012-13 Blackhawks in a lockout-shortened season. Sure, it's easier to do it for a 23 game stretch than a full year, but this isn't the NBA and it's pretty rare for teams to win 18-19 out of 23 games.

We have 5 games to go before the deadline and we probably need to win all of them to not be sellers (and even then that's not a clearcut decision)... those games include road games in Pit and Was and the second half of a B2B against Dallas. You look at the D corps with Weber and it's weak. You look at it without Weber, and it's atrocious. Right now, we're playing with 3 third-pairing guys and two minor-leaguers if you ask me. I'm not sure how anyone can look at this squad as a potential playoff team right now, and I've seen enough to believe we should be sellers at the deadline.

This. But will MB agree?  I think he might finally have the message.  To what extent he'll sell though... that is the question. 

25 minutes ago, kinot-2 said:

So, we're in the 9th year of the 5 year plan? 

HEY! thats not fair!!  

 

 

 

 

8th. 

 

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14 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Well... he took over in 2012 (may)
So:

2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20

Thats 8 by my math... 

By my math,,,,,,, next season too. I rest my case :frech1:

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2 minutes ago, maas_art said:

well your math may be right but then your english is off because you said "we're IN the 9th year..." and unless you got a time machine over there, we're in number 8 ;) 

Hey, my alien friend told me that, and I swear by him. :)

 

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9 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

By my math,,,,,,, next season too. I rest my case :frech1:

Ever likely. :ph34r:

For a period of time I thought, "Sure, Bergevin is definitely getting fired if we miss the playoffs this year!" But... Now I suspect he will return for 2020-2021. He'll have his end-of-season pow-wow with Molson and they'll agree it was injuries and that we're on the "right track."

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38 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Ever likely. :ph34r:

For a period of time I thought, "Sure, Bergevin is definitely getting fired if we miss the playoffs this year!" But... Now I suspect he will return for 2020-2021. He'll have his end-of-season pow-wow with Molson and they'll agree it was injuries and that we're on the "right track."

Unfortunately I agree with this - primarily because the draft is being held in Montreal - the time to search for a new GM and the PR implications of that would be a distraction 

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Oh we are definitely stuck with Bergevin next season.      Management (and a good portion of fans) are all to willing to chalk this up as "injuries" and not the real issues

-  Poorly created lineup (eg no elite scorer, no good LD, too many plugs in key positions)

- No depth (if your argument is Injuries, having depth cushions you from those)

-  Relying to heavily on one position (Goaltending)

- Poor coaching (Weal, Cousins, Peca out on the PP)

I'm not looking forward to next season as I honestly think MB does little to address anything and we're in yet another year where by this point people are reaching for "but there's still a chance!"

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1 hour ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Ever likely. :ph34r:

For a period of time I thought, "Sure, Bergevin is definitely getting fired if we miss the playoffs this year!" But... Now I suspect he will return for 2020-2021. He'll have his end-of-season pow-wow with Molson and they'll agree it was injuries and that we're on the "right track."

Absolutely. Id say he has at least 2-3 more terrible seasons before Molson considers firing him. 

 

32 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

Oh we are definitely stuck with Bergevin next season.      Management (and a good portion of fans) are all to willing to chalk this up as "injuries" and not the real issue

Absolutely. Although on the flip side, the self-imposed law that our GM MUST be French limits the candidates considerable & im not sure who we'd replace him with.  He's made a mess of this roster but im not convinced that replacing him with just anyone is the right call. Id really like to have a GM who is actually competent.  But if we're limited to one (very small) segment of the candidate pool, who is that? 

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https://awinninghabit.com/2020/02/12/montreal-canadiens-market-convince-marc-bergevin-sell/

Zucker was nearly traded twice already last season. He scored 21 goals and 42 points for the Minnesota Wild last season in 81 games. This season, he has 14 goals and 15 assists for 29 points in 45 games. That is a 25 goal and 52 point season if stretched out over a full 82 game schedule. In his last game with the Wild, he was playing fourth line left wing.

Zucker was just traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Alex Galchenyuk, Calen Addison and a first round pick. If that return doesn’t force Marc Bergevin into thinking he should enter the sellers market over the next two weeks, nothing will.

First round picks hold a lot of value, and Addison was one of the Penguins best prospects. He is scoring at over a point per game pace as a right shot defenseman for the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the Western Hockey League. He had nine points in seven games for Canada at the recent World Junior Championships, playing a huge role on the gold medal winning team.

All for a player that doesn’t have as much value as Tomas Tatar. Tatar’s name has been bandied about in trade rumours this year. He is having a tremendous season and has one more year on his contract before he is a free agent. Tatar has 20 goals and 52 points in 58 games for the Habs this season

 

Think about that ... Zucker fetched a 1st round pick, a top prospect and a former 1st round pick.

What does Tatar get you then? Petry? Price? Even injured Weber has value to a team who is likely to make the playoffs and want a deep run.

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56 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

Oh we are definitely stuck with Bergevin next season.      Management (and a good portion of fans) are all to willing to chalk this up as "injuries" and not the real issues

-  Poorly created lineup (eg no elite scorer, no good LD, too many plugs in key positions)

- No depth (if your argument is Injuries, having depth cushions you from those)

-  Relying to heavily on one position (Goaltending)

- Poor coaching (Weal, Cousins, Peca out on the PP)

I'm not looking forward to next season as I honestly think MB does little to address anything and we're in yet another year where by this point people are reaching for "but there's still a chance!"

I agree on some of these bullet points and disagree on others.

The lineup is missing high-end talent. An elite goal-scorer would do us wonders. A top-pairing LD would do us wonders. These players are hard to come by, but that doesn't excuse Bergevin's inability to acquire them. He has draft picks. He has depth in other positions. He needs to make it happen or let someone else try. Crossing your fingers and hoping Romanov is good enough is the a terrible strategy.

I'm not sure I agree that we are a poorly coached team. I think we are an excellent five-on-five team and that goes a long way to me liking Julien. Every coach has their favorite "grinder(s)" that get more ice time than the fan base believes they should. This won't change with a new coach. However, we seem pretty weak on special teams. That's an area that needs improvement. It obviously needed improvement after last season.

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1 minute ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I'm not sure I agree that we are a poorly coached team. I think we are an excellent five-on-five team and that goes a long way to me liking Julien. Every coach has their favorite "grinder(s)" that get more ice time than the fan base believes they should. This won't change with a new coach. However, we seem pretty weak on special teams. That's an area that needs improvement. It obviously needed improvement after last season.

Sure every team has their favourite grinders ... there's zero excuse though to have Weal, Peca, Cousins out on the powerplay over some of the other guys in the lineup.   I don't think Julien is a bad coach, but I think his style and systems have simply been left behind.   What worked for him as a coach 10 years ago in Boston is not working anymore.   He also tends to make some really odd choices at times (eg down by a goal, late in the 3rd and the 4th line is out on the ice)

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Just now, HabsAlways said:

Sure every team has their favourite grinders ... there's zero excuse though to have Weal, Peca, Cousins out on the powerplay over some of the other guys in the lineup.   I don't think Julien is a bad coach, but I think his style and systems have simply been left behind.   What worked for him as a coach 10 years ago in Boston is not working anymore.   He also tends to make some really odd choices at times (eg down by a goal, late in the 3rd and the 4th line is out on the ice)

You're right on that point. Seeing players like Weal and Cousins out on the PP makes so little sense to me. I do disagree that Julien's style and systems have been left behind. Like I said, we seem to be a very good five-on-five team and that goes a long way for me. Especially given the make-up of the team defense... Which is... Lacking. The shortcomings for this team's performance fall squarely on Bergevin's shoulders, IMO. I just hope Molson is eventually willing to do something about it.

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1 hour ago, HabsAlways said:

Think about that ... Zucker fetched a 1st round pick, a top prospect and a former 1st round pick.

What does Tatar get you then? Petry? Price? Even injured Weber has value to a team who is likely to make the playoffs and want a deep run.

The way i see the Zucker deal was a 1st & top prospect.  Galchenyuk was a throw in (as he's been quite poor, even playing alongside Malkin) and he's an UFA next year. I dont think he's negative value (he could rebound) but i think Minnesota probably makes that deal for the first + addison without AG. 

So I think Tatar probably gets you a 1st (possibly from a team that should be lower than Pittsburgh's) and a top prospect and a youngish (23-27) roster player. 

 

As for Petry, Weber and Price:  Weber's value has to be quite low right now - AND - i still dont think MB moves on from him.   Price, i think is here as long as he wants to be. I dont see MB having any interest in trading either of them.

Petry is a very interesting one though.  I believe MB sees him as expendable, and since this season is bascially done, moving Petry (and having Weber on the IR) could be all it takes to get us into a bottom 5 finish. That would be ideal for another high end pick.    The players & coaches wont throw in the towel but the GM has the opportunity to ensure we  finish the season with the best possibly chances to draft high.


That said, if you trade Petry there's a decent chance we dont make the playoffs next year either.  You and i might say "fine. we need to rebuild properly" but 2 more years of no playoffs? that could totally signal the end of MB, so it may not be a choice he makes. 

 

42 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I agree on some of these bullet points and disagree on others.

The lineup is missing high-end talent. An elite goal-scorer would do us wonders. A top-pairing LD would do us wonders. These players are hard to come by, but that doesn't excuse Bergevin's inability to acquire them. He has draft picks. He has depth in other positions. He needs to make it happen or let someone else try. Crossing your fingers and hoping Romanov is good enough is the a terrible strategy.

I'm not sure I agree that we are a poorly coached team. I think we are an excellent five-on-five team and that goes a long way to me liking Julien. Every coach has their favorite "grinder(s)" that get more ice time than the fan base believes they should. This won't change with a new coach. However, we seem pretty weak on special teams. That's an area that needs improvement. It obviously needed improvement after last season.

Agree. I have a hard time blaming Julien for the issues. To me he's doing the best he can.  But as my old design teacher used to say: you cant make chicken fingers out of chicken ______   (although i think McDonalds tries!)

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

The way i see the Zucker deal was a 1st & top prospect.  Galchenyuk was a throw in (as he's been quite poor, even playing alongside Malkin) and he's an UFA next year. I dont think he's negative value (he could rebound) but i think Minnesota probably makes that deal for the first + addison without AG. 

So I think Tatar probably gets you a 1st (possibly from a team that should be lower than Pittsburgh's) and a top prospect and a youngish (23-27) roster player. 

 

As for Petry, Weber and Price:  Weber's value has to be quite low right now - AND - i still dont think MB moves on from him.   Price, i think is here as long as he wants to be. I dont see MB having any interest in trading either of them.

Petry is a very interesting one though.  I believe MB sees him as expendable, and since this season is bascially done, moving Petry (and having Weber on the IR) could be all it takes to get us into a bottom 5 finish. That would be ideal for another high end pick.    The players & coaches wont throw in the towel but the GM has the opportunity to ensure we  finish the season with the best possibly chances to draft high.


That said, if you trade Petry there's a decent chance we dont make the playoffs next year either.  You and i might say "fine. we need to rebuild properly" but 2 more years of no playoffs? that could totally signal the end of MB, so it may not be a choice he makes.

Yeah, based on everything I've read, Minnesota had to take Galchenyuk in the deal. They didn't want him specifically but Pittsburgh insisted because they needed cap/contract flexibility to maybe add another player before the deadline. So yeah, I agree that Tatar should get you a 1st rounder, a good prospect, and solid roster player. Or alternatively a 1st rounder and really good prospect from a contending team. Petry's value is IMO even higher, as he'd automatically be the best defenceman available on the market. Top-pairing RHDs are a hot commodity in general and he has essentially everything a playoff-bound team would want, including another year left on his contract, meaning he's not a rental and the acquiring team could still trade him next season to get some assets back. Bottom line: Muzzin++ would be the starting point for any trade discussions as far as I'm concerned, otherwise no thanks.

It's definitely tempting but I also agree that trading one of Petry/Tatar would essentially mean no playoffs yet again next season. The more important question is though, can we actually make the playoffs next season if we keep them? I'm not sure to be honest, we would have to keep them and find a way to improve the team to be certain, which means MB needs to make something happen during the offseason.

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Time to face it we are cooked for this season! i am not one for tanking but we have to take a hard look at the team and make good moves for next year and the future. i like Petry but he will get us the biggest return. i would hang onto Kovy if we can i think he brings some good tools to the team, we better do something at LHD or we are just wasting time! and please less plugs! or could we at least get better ones! i would perhaps look at moving Max too if this is all we are going to get or it is a year on year off type of thing sell now!

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