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2020 NHL Draft

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11 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

 

But at the end of the day, the Habs probably got the biggest screwjob of anyone. Because for us, we had the best odds of a top pick out of the 8-15 teams and we have statistically the worst odds of winning a Cup (especially since teams will be re-seeded after every round, so no matter how many rounds we win, we always have the toughest opponent every subsequent round). If we lost the play-in (or if the season never happens), we theoretically should have had a 25% chance of winning the next lottery based on previous odds (6% odds of top pick out of 24% total assigned to teams 8-15). Instead we have half of that. Meanwhile, like you said, better teams like Pittsburgh and Toronto can also end up with Lafreniere if they falter in 3 games.

 

To be expected I guess with MB and GM running things. The Habs should just tank the playoffs. 

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1 hour ago, habs1952 said:

To be expected I guess with MB and GM running things. The Habs should just tank the playoffs. 

They may not need to, Price is not sure if he even wants to play IF the season resumes

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14 hours ago, ChiLla said:

That's the thing, anything can happen really. Home-ice advantage won't be a thing, from what I've read players are (understandably) reluctant and some flat out don't want to play, it's a best-of-five series in neutral territory without any fans in the standings. Players are fully rested but haven't played meaningful hockey in months. Heck, some won't have seen their teammates in months. If you're from Europe, there aren't many places where you can lace up your skates come April because rinks are closed. There's also a point to be made that we don't even deserve to participate in that play-in round. It's pure chaos and given the parity in the league, there doesn't seem to be any clear-cut favorite at this point. So someone in the league thought hey, let's reward the best teams in the standings with a shot at the #1 draft pick because they have to beat one of the worst teams in the standings in a 5-game series to have a shot at the cup? Honestly, I just don't get it.

It's great that we'll get a chance to compete in this year's "playoffs" but I still don't like our chances. I'll take a 12.5% shot at Lafreniere vs. having to face the #1 seed in every round any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Not only that, but if you lose int he play-in, you're at worst the 9th overall pick. If you win that one series, you're at best the 16th overall pick.

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I apologize if this has already been answered. What happens if the season is cancelled and there is no play-in series? Does the NHL redraw the entire draft order? Or is what has already happened locked in no matter what?

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3 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I apologize if this has already been answered. What happens if the season is cancelled and there is no play-in series? Does the NHL redraw the entire draft order? Or is what has already happened locked in no matter what?

Who knows? The league seems to be making things up on the fly. Should have been a 16 team playoff with the draft lottery remaining as it should be but that makes too much sense.

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5 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I apologize if this has already been answered. What happens if the season is cancelled and there is no play-in series? Does the NHL redraw the entire draft order? Or is what has already happened locked in no matter what?

 

2 hours ago, habs1952 said:

Who knows? The league seems to be making things up on the fly. Should have been a 16 team playoff with the draft lottery remaining as it should be but that makes too much sense.

They (the NHL) has addressed this already.

If there's no play in series then all the 8 lower ranked teams in the play in round will have an even chance at that #1 pick. Gives us (and everyone else) a 12.5% chance.   So the only way we dont have a shot at that pick is if we Do play the play in series and we win. 

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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

They (the NHL) has addressed this already.

If there's no play in series then all the 8 lower ranked teams in the play in round will have an even chance at that #1 pick. Gives us (and everyone else) a 12.5% chance.   So the only way we dont have a shot at that pick is if we Do play the play in series and we win. 

I'm actually hoping they lose in the play-in (or that it never happens) and we get that first overall pick. 12.5% chance at winning the draft lottery is a lot better than our chance of winning the Cup this year. :ph34r:

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1 hour ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I'm actually hoping they lose in the play-in (or that it never happens) and we get that first overall pick. 12.5% chance at winning the draft lottery is a lot better than our chance of winning the Cup this year. :ph34r:

Agree.  

One team wins & then the rest fall back into their (reverse order) of points percentage for the season. Meaning we either will pick 1st or 9th (2nd through 8th are decided).

If we win the play-in round, then we go up to 16th (this would be unchanged even if we won 1 or 2 more rounds I believe). 

 

I can live with 9th- obviously would prefer 1st.  Dont really want to fall to 16th unless we were to actually make it to the finals. Even winning 2 rounds doesnt make it worth it to me. 

 

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Meanwhile: Look on the bright side.  At least we're not red wings fans.

 

Detroit had a historically abysmal season with the 'silver lining" of having the best odds at franchise-player Lafreniere.... or at least a consolation prize of the next two.  

They drop THREE places down to 4th.  Sure, they will still get a very good player but it looks like in this year's draft there may be a big drop between 3rd and 4th. 

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

Agree.  

One team wins & then the rest fall back into their (reverse order) of points percentage for the season. Meaning we either will pick 1st or 9th (2nd through 8th are decided).

If we win the play-in round, then we go up to 16th (this would be unchanged even if we won 1 or 2 more rounds I believe). 

 

I can live with 9th- obviously would prefer 1st.  Dont really want to fall to 16th unless we were to actually make it to the finals. Even winning 2 rounds doesnt make it worth it to me. 

 

Actually if we win the Play in series and lose in the next round we pick 16th if we win that round we pick 24th then 28th then 30th or 31st. So typical draft seeding after 15th, the further you go the further you drop.

 

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53 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

Actually if we win the Play in series and lose in the next round we pick 16th if we win that round we pick 24th then 28th then 30th or 31st. So typical draft seeding after 15th, the further you go the further you drop.

 

I read somewhere that if we win round 1 (after playin) we pick 16, if we win round 2 we still pick 16, it only changes if we win round 3. no idea if that’s true though. Just something i read

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17 minutes ago, booboo_mtl said:

I read somewhere that if we win round 1 (after playin) we pick 16, if we win round 2 we still pick 16, it only changes if we win round 3. no idea if that’s true though. Just something i read

I will see if I can find the story explaining the draft scenarios for the habs

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6 hours ago, maas_art said:

Meanwhile: Look on the bright side.  At least we're not red wings fans.

 

Detroit had a historically abysmal season with the 'silver lining" of having the best odds at franchise-player Lafreniere.... or at least a consolation prize of the next two.  

They drop THREE places down to 4th.  Sure, they will still get a very good player but it looks like in this year's draft there may be a big drop between 3rd and 4th. 

Agreed I see all sorts of complaints of our circumstances but we still have a shot at #1 and no way Detroit should of dropped down to 4th. If Montreal had been there what do you think would of been the response!

 

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On 6/29/2020 at 9:33 PM, booboo_mtl said:

I read somewhere that if we win round 1 (after playin) we pick 16, if we win round 2 we still pick 16, it only changes if we win round 3. no idea if that’s true though. Just something i read

I don't know what the NHL has decided for this year, since they keep changing their rules for draft position, but traditionally, if a team is eliminated in the 1st or 2nd round of the playoffs then they are ranked by reverse order of regular season finish. The only exceptions to that are division winners, who get bumped to the end of the list. Teams that make the conference finals or better are the last 4 teams to pick.

So given that we didn't win our division, the only way we would be picking worse than 16th is if we made it all the way to the ECF, which would mean winning the play-in series AND winning two more rounds, all the while doing this while being re-seeded every round to face the best remaining team in the East. So our path would mean beating Pittsburgh and then likely two of Bos, TB, Was, and Phi. Seems like a tall order.

As I've said, the Habs got a big screwjob from the league in this whole thing. The league made the playoffs harder for lower seeds to advance with the whole re-seeding thing. At the same time, they made the draft lottery odds lower for teams just outside the bottom 7 by making teams 8-15 equal in draft odds. Teams 1-7 retained their same draft odds. The Habs, as 8th-last, should have had a 6% shot at the top pick. Instead, teams 8-15 saw their odds lumped together and the Habs ended up with a 1 in 8 chance of the 24% pooled chances (so in essence a 3% chance at the top pick). Those odds have gone up now that the pooled placeholder spot one top prize, but we still saw our overall odds drop from 6% to 3%. The rest of the teams ranked 9-15 also had 3% odds, which was a drop-off for the Habs and the two teams ranked right below us (Chicago and Arizona), though Chicago's odds fell from 5% to 3% and Arizona's only from 3.5% to 3%.

So Montreal is given the slimmest of hopes of making the playoffs and in exchange they see their odds of a top 3 pick slashed and their odds of the top pick cut in half and instead of a guaranteed top 11 pick and 99.6% chance of a top 10 pick, now there's probably something like a 40-45% chance the Habs win a play-in series and see their pick drop to 16th or worse. No other team got it worse in terms of seeing their draft odds drop and no other team got it worse in terms of the re-seeding hurting their chances of moving through the post-season. Like I said, giant middle finger from Bettman to our club.

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A big can of worms has been opened with this format but I prefer these chances. Our chances for making the playoffs and winning a cup which is why they play has increased significantly from the 1 or 2% that we had before the season was cut off. I actually like our chances against the Pens with Carey in a short series. 

As far as the draft goes we have definitely lost a little ground when it comes to getting a pick in the top 10, but we now have 12.5% at Lafreniere which is a big improvement and still will be in the top ten if we get knocked out by the Pens. I prefer this scenario, as the more we win the more likely we are to get a little closer to the cup. I also like the chance of Bergevin being able to use some of his second rounders to move up in the draft although this is not something he has done much of in the past.

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11 hours ago, Habberwacky said:

A big can of worms has been opened with this format but I prefer these chances. Our chances for making the playoffs and winning a cup which is why they play has increased significantly from the 1 or 2% that we had before the season was cut off. I actually like our chances against the Pens with Carey in a short series. 

As far as the draft goes we have definitely lost a little ground when it comes to getting a pick in the top 10, but we now have 12.5% at Lafreniere which is a big improvement and still will be in the top ten if we get knocked out by the Pens. I prefer this scenario, as the more we win the more likely we are to get a little closer to the cup. I also like the chance of Bergevin being able to use some of his second rounders to move up in the draft although this is not something he has done much of in the past.

There would be 24 teams still alive, which means that each team's chances of winning the Cup, if all things were equal, would be about 4%. Now factor in that the Habs are the lowest-ranking team to be allowed into the post-season and that they will be the "road team" for all their series. That won't mean home ice or home fans for the other team, but it probably means last line change and so on goes the other way. And then to boot, the re-seeding every round ensures we get the best team left every round. So while I agree with you that we have a chance against Pittsburgh, I don't like our odds of taking down Pittsburgh and then maybe 3 of Boston, Tampa, Washington, and Philly just to get to the Cup finals, followed by the best team in the West. I'd say our odds of winning most of those series are under 50%. If you peg the odds of our winning each individual series at about 40%, then our overall chances of winning the Cup would come in at around 1% on the nose. Personally, I'd rather have the 12.5% chance of getting Lafreniere and a 100% chance of drafting in the top 9 instead of a 1% chance of winning the Cup and a 100% chance of drafting 16th or worse.

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Personally, the more I think about it, the more I like our position in all of this. If we lose to Pittsburgh (which most think we will) we’ve got a great shot at Lafreniere. I don’t remember what our odds were pre-COVID-19, but my guess is we now have a better chance of winning that pick more than at any other time this season. If we don’t win 1st overall, we’re still picking 9th, which is what we expected anyways.

Or we beat Pittsburgh (which is absolutely a possibility), lose in one of the following matchups and wind up picking somewhere between 16th-24th. Although this is not an ideal drafting position, I’m really keen on Jeremy Poirier, and that seems like a nice window to snag’em. Bit of a “high risk/high reward” pick, but man, his skill set is hard to ignore.

Or... we could just take advantage of abnormal circumstances and just WIN THE CUP!!! Statistically it’s a heck of a long shot, but honestly, I don’t think there is a team in the league that we can’t beat. All of these scenarios work for me, let’s get this party started already!

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6 hours ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

Personally, the more I think about it, the more I like our position in all of this. If we lose to Pittsburgh (which most think we will) we’ve got a great shot at Lafreniere. I don’t remember what our odds were pre-COVID-19, but my guess is we now have a better chance of winning that pick more than at any other time this season. If we don’t win 1st overall, we’re still picking 9th, which is what we expected anyways.

Or we beat Pittsburgh (which is absolutely a possibility), lose in one of the following matchups and wind up picking somewhere between 16th-24th. Although this is not an ideal drafting position, I’m really keen on Jeremy Poirier, and that seems like a nice window to snag’em. Bit of a “high risk/high reward” pick, but man, his skill set is hard to ignore.

Or... we could just take advantage of abnormal circumstances and just WIN THE CUP!!! Statistically it’s a heck of a long shot, but honestly, I don’t think there is a team in the league that we can’t beat. All of these scenarios work for me, let’s get this party started already!

If we are healthy the only team I worry about is Philadelphia as they have had our number for a while now. Price is the wild card but we hav a good young team with a balanced attack. The other wild cards for me are we are in a great position to make trades with all our draft picks.Even at 16 we can still trade up using our seconds.  It will be a lot more exciting than watching MLB this summer although I have enjoyed the Expo reruns. 

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Posted (edited)

Personally I am not entirely sold on Lafreniere, it's not like he burnt up the minor system like a Crosby, MCDavid ect.  Add to that the pressure of the kid playing in MTL, we all know how rabid the fans in MTL can be.

 

I would have much rather seen us get the 2nd or third pick as I like the German kid way better and think he will be an absolute beast in the NHL

Edited by 26NCounting
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On 7/4/2020 at 1:54 PM, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

Personally, the more I think about it, the more I like our position in all of this. If we lose to Pittsburgh (which most think we will) we’ve got a great shot at Lafreniere. I don’t remember what our odds were pre-COVID-19, but my guess is we now have a better chance of winning that pick more than at any other time this season. If we don’t win 1st overall, we’re still picking 9th, which is what we expected anyways.

Or we beat Pittsburgh (which is absolutely a possibility), lose in one of the following matchups and wind up picking somewhere between 16th-24th. Although this is not an ideal drafting position, I’m really keen on Jeremy Poirier, and that seems like a nice window to snag’em. Bit of a “high risk/high reward” pick, but man, his skill set is hard to ignore.

Or... we could just take advantage of abnormal circumstances and just WIN THE CUP!!! Statistically it’s a heck of a long shot, but honestly, I don’t think there is a team in the league that we can’t beat. All of these scenarios work for me, let’s get this party started already!

Yeah, Im not devasted with where we sit now. I still think its not a given the playoffs even happen & if they dont, we have that 12.5% chance at #1.  

19 minutes ago, 26NCounting said:

Personally I am not entirely sold on Lafreniere, it's not like he burnt up the minor system like a Crosby, MCDavid ect.  Add to that the pressure of the kid playing in MTL, we all know how rabid the fans in MTL can be.

 

I would have much rather seen us get the 2nd or third pick as I like the German kid way better and think he will be an absolute beast in the NHL

Im not 100% sold on him either although i think if you get #1 you gotta take it.  For some reason I think "Alexander Daigle" - could be totally off but i wouldnt be shocked to see him never live up to the hype. 

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8 hours ago, 26NCounting said:

Personally I am not entirely sold on Lafreniere, it's not like he burnt up the minor system like a Crosby, MCDavid ect.  Add to that the pressure of the kid playing in MTL, we all know how rabid the fans in MTL can be.

 

I would have much rather seen us get the 2nd or third pick as I like the German kid way better and think he will be an absolute beast in the NHL

 

8 hours ago, maas_art said:

Yeah, Im not devasted with where we sit now. I still think its not a given the playoffs even happen & if they dont, we have that 12.5% chance at #1.  

Im not 100% sold on him either although i think if you get #1 you gotta take it.  For some reason I think "Alexander Daigle" - could be totally off but i wouldnt be shocked to see him never live up to the hype. 

I don't think Lafreniere will be a flop. I don't think he'll be Crosby or MacDavid by any means, but I think he'll be a top 6 player maybe akin to someone like Sean Couturier (who also had a lot of #1 overall clout before fading in his final junior year) and he frankly could end up being a star. Best case scenario is probably someone like a Vinny Lecavalier or Tavares, where he's the best player on your team for a few years and a top 10-20 player in the league.

That said, I really like Stutzle and I think he could be a sleeper in the draft. I think he could have a similar impact to Matt Barzal for example.

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Lafreniere might not turn out to be a “generational” type player, but my bet is that he will most definitely be a legit 1st overall type. I saw someone make the point that with his size, skill set and physicality he might compare well with Peter Forsberg... wouldn’t that be something special! Now, Forsberg was a BEAST, so I don’t know... but watching some of the footage, I can kind of see it. He was certainly top of the class at these past WJC’s. At the very least, I have zero concerns of him being a bust.

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On 7/4/2020 at 4:54 PM, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

Personally, the more I think about it, the more I like our position in all of this. If we lose to Pittsburgh (which most think we will) we’ve got a great shot at Lafreniere. I don’t remember what our odds were pre-COVID-19, but my guess is we now have a better chance of winning that pick more than at any other time this season. If we don’t win 1st overall, we’re still picking 9th, which is what we expected anyways.

Or we beat Pittsburgh (which is absolutely a possibility), lose in one of the following matchups and wind up picking somewhere between 16th-24th. Although this is not an ideal drafting position, I’m really keen on Jeremy Poirier, and that seems like a nice window to snag’em. Bit of a “high risk/high reward” pick, but man, his skill set is hard to ignore.

Or... we could just take advantage of abnormal circumstances and just WIN THE CUP!!! Statistically it’s a heck of a long shot, but honestly, I don’t think there is a team in the league that we can’t beat. All of these scenarios work for me, let’s get this party started already!

Except Detroit, but luckily for us that is not a concern.:4322:

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6 hours ago, MuddyWaterMoose said:

Except Detroit, but luckily for us that is not a concern.:4322:

Haha true enough!

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The draft is currently scheduled for Oct. 6.

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