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17 hours ago, claremont said:

Does anyone think with any big all out move that this team can suddenly vault from barely being a top 16 team last year (top 20 as they were fortunate to getting into the qualifying round and surprising Pittsburgh), and morph to a top 4 conference finalist team? I don’t. I’ll repeat that there are far too many question marks for KK, Suzuki, Romanov, Drouin, and now Edmundson and Allen to play at the highest levels that us “homers” think that they are capable of. Yes we will win more games (and hopefully not lose 4 games to $&*# Detroit or 2 to the #$&@ Devils) , but is one big trade and/or free agent going to push us into that stratosphere?

 If your answer is No, then why do you set yourself those lofty big expectations for Bergevin and class it as failure?
I’m not saying to sit back and not try or do nothing or not enable our youngsters, but we need a future of continued progression without adding the 3-4 year terms of over priced “average pieces” or retools. With the exception of Laine / Ehlers, or maybe Hall, then Dadonov, Hoffman and Toffoli are filler pieces for this year and next until those question marks I refer to above develop some consistency. Add 1 but not for big $ or term is ok. 
Three items are making me think we are on the right track 1) the progression of Nick, KK 2) the growth of Caufield, Struble, Norlinder and possibly Harris 3) I’ve watched a lot of film on this year’s draft prospects and believe there are some real difference makers forthcoming. 

Well, there's this.  Are we the 2019-2020 team? Were we that bad?  Or are we the 2018-2019 team?  Were we that good, that all we needed from Drouin was a little contribution to make the playoffs that year?  Or are we somewhere in the middle? I think the roster improved big time, when we got Price the quality backup he needed. The defense should be sound, the young guns are more experienced, so yes, call me optimistic, I believe a #1 right winger would help hugely. I'm tired of Bergy's bad moves & non moves. I'm hoping, I'm wanting, to see that final great move.  If it happens, and we can get a Laine or an Ehlers, I want to see what this team can do. It definitely is more pleasant to be optimistic and I look forward with anticipation. Maybe I'm setting myself up for disappointment, but let me dream.

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On 9/14/2020 at 5:46 PM, claremont said:

Enormous francophone  pressure on a 6ft 181 lb playmaking centre from Gatineau to be converted To a left wing. The key word is playmaking - he’s all about assists-  his shot is not up there with some of the others. If we had two picks, I would say sure but don’t want all the eggs to get scrambled with him. At 16th pick there is still upside with Holloway, Mercer, Gunler, Jarvis and even Amirov - we need Steve Shutt trigger men with some size who can put the biscuit in the peanut butter shelf to compliment Caufield 

There's this. Fisher's 9th. Annual 2020 Mock Draft  https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-team-results-fisher/

Lapierre projected @   16

Holloway                @ 17

Mercer                    @ 27

Gunier                    @ 20

Jarvis                     @ 12

Amirov                   @ 22

Bourque                 @ 36

Guhle                     @ 11

Perrault                  @ 25

Reichel                  @ 31

Noted some of the players mentioned as possibilities on this forum.  Any surprises? Lapierre for a home run? or Holloway for a safe bet.

Actually, best player = Guhle?

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3 hours ago, electron58 said:

There's this. Fisher's 9th. Annual 2020 Mock Draft  https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-team-results-fisher/

Lapierre projected @   16

Holloway                @ 17

Mercer                    @ 27

Gunier                    @ 20

Jarvis                     @ 12

Amirov                   @ 22

Bourque                 @ 36

Guhle                     @ 11

Perrault                  @ 25

Reichel                  @ 31

Noted some of the players mentioned as possibilities on this forum.  Any surprises? Lapierre for a home run? or Holloway for a safe bet.

Actually, best player = Guhle?

There’s so many sources of drafts beyond Fisher’s / Hockey writers including nut bar Button & McKenzie. I’ve watched a lot of highlights from various sources on YouTube and seen over 10 drafts from various experts and over 100 from non-experts. IMO Lapierre is a playmaker - our need is shooters / scorers that can fire from the angles like a Tatar or even better like Laine, or that can drive the net even better than chief mucker Gallagher, and can skate. Some believe Lapierre has all this upside from his cervix injury and concussion injury - I hope we don’t take that injury risk. This is a draft thin on d-men and there’s still some good d-men in round 2/3 (Villeneuve,Niemela  Grans, Cotton) that don’t have much falloff from those in bottom first round. Guhle is a LHD - we have enough of those in the prospect pool and IMO he’s not the BAP at 16 regardless. Schneider is a better d-man than Guhle. Too bad we beat Pittsburgh- we would probably be discussing Holtz or Quinn <——prolific scoring ceilings. Jarvis is a slick scorer on the small side. IMO at 16 the premium players are Holloway, Mercer, Gunler, Amirov and Perreault all of whom are good skaters, goal scorers, play with power and have some size. It’s hard to teach goal scoring and think you can teach better skating? - Mike McCarron was a case in point

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17 minutes ago, claremont said:

There’s so many sources of drafts beyond Fisher’s / Hockey writers including nut bar Button & McKenzie. I’ve watched a lot of highlights from various sources on YouTube and seen over 10 drafts from various experts and over 100 from non-experts. IMO Lapierre is a playmaker - our need is shooters / scorers that can fire from the angles like a Tatar or even better like Laine, or that can drive the net even better than chief mucker Gallagher, and can skate. Some believe Lapierre has all this upside from his cervix injury and concussion injury - I hope we don’t take that injury risk. This is a draft thin on d-men and there’s still some good d-men in round 2/3 (Villeneuve,Niemela  Grans, Cotton) that don’t have much falloff from those in bottom first round. Guhle is a LHD - we have enough of those in the prospect pool and IMO he’s not the BAP at 16 regardless. Schneider is a better d-man than Guhle. Too bad we beat Pittsburgh- we would probably be discussing Holtz or Quinn <——prolific scoring ceilings. Jarvis is a slick scorer on the small side. IMO at 16 the premium players are Holloway, Mercer, Gunler, Amirov and Perreault all of whom are good skaters, goal scorers, play with power and have some size. It’s hard to teach goal scoring and think you can teach better skating? - Mike McCarron was a case in point

Mostly agree here. I have little interest in Lapierre, unless maybe if he slips into the second round.

I agree that Guhle likely isn’t BPA at 16, disagree with Schneider being better. They look very similar physically, big hitters, strong. Guhle looks to be the better skater, better edges, walks the blueline well. In this area I don’t believe it’s close. I put Schneider in the same category as Lapierre, worth a look in the second if still available.

The only one from your list of premium players that I’m not big on is Amirov. From the video I’ve seen, along with his stats, I just don’t see the allure. I’m no pro, so what do I know? All of the analysts seem to like’em. Personally, with all of the other likely available players, I’d stay away from Amirov. Would prefer one of the other forwards listed there, but I won’t be upset if we pick Guhle. 

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Personally, I think the odds are higher we trade the pick than keep it. Bergevin's in win-now mode both because his veteran core is aging and because he needs to save his own job, our pick isn't a lottery pick, and we have a bunch of 2nd rounders to make up in part for losing a mid-1st rounder. The factors are there to make trading the #1 more plausible. That said, if we keep it, these are the players I think are 90%+ likely to be gone by the time we pick:

- Lafreniere

- Byfield

- Stutzle

- Rossi

- Perfetti

- Raymond

- Drysdale

- Sanderson

- Holtz

- Askarov

 

Not saying those are the top 10, but I feel pretty comfortable saying those 10 players will go in the top 15, barring a surprise drop. So the question then is who are the next 6 in our pecking order? Who are the 6 guys we could look at whereby we're guaranteed one will be left... this is a list of 9 guys that might very well be on the Habs' radar at #16; if we keep that pick without trading it or moving up/down, the odds are high that our selection comes from this list:

 

- Seth Jarvis

- Anton Lundell

- Jack Quinn

- Hendrix Lapierre

- Dylan Holloway

- Dawson Mercer

- Braden Schneider

- Mavrik Bourque

- William Wallinder

 

The last two are a bit more of wildcards but I think they're players who could entice Bergevin.

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And this is how I will mock the draft for now:

1. Det- Lafreniere

2. LA- Byfield

3. Ott- Stutzle

4. Det- Drysdale

5. Ott- Perfetti

6. Ana - Raymond

7. NJ - Rossi

8. Buf - Askarov

9. Min-Sanderson

10. Wpg- Holtz

11. Nas- Jarvis

12. Fla- Schneider

13. Car- Quinn

14. Edm- Lundell

15. Tor- Lapierre

16. Mtl- Mercer

 

 

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13 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

And this is how I will mock the draft for now:

1. Det- Lafreniere

11. Nas- Jarvis

12. Fla- Schneider

13. Car- Quinn

14. Edm- Lundell

15. Tor- Lapierre

16. Mtl- Mercer

You’re not far off on that - typo NYR have first pick. Jarvis could be this years Caufield due to his size. There’s sons of mocks out there including cap friendly, YouTube, tsn, sportsnet and google searches. A very high number of them have Quinn (who played on a stacked 67’s team) and Lundell (two way closest to nhl ready), in their top 12. Lapierre is back playing in the QJMHL - wonder if their first game and tonight’s game changes any thoughts as he plays with Mercer. A high percentage have the laffs picking a d-man despite BAP theory as their prospect pool is woefully short of RHD. 

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1 hour ago, claremont said:

You’re not far off on that - typo NYR have first pick. Jarvis could be this years Caufield due to his size. There’s sons of mocks out there including cap friendly, YouTube, tsn, sportsnet and google searches. A very high number of them have Quinn (who played on a stacked 67’s team) and Lundell (two way closest to nhl ready), in their top 12. Lapierre is back playing in the QJMHL - wonder if their first game and tonight’s game changes any thoughts as he plays with Mercer. A high percentage have the laffs picking a d-man despite BAP theory as their prospect pool is woefully short of RHD. 

Yes, typo on the Det/NYR thing!

Personally, I'm lower on Lundell than some mocks, just since he projects as a 3C more than anything, but it only takes one team to like him! He could easily be drafted in the top 10. I really like Quinn, he's got a lightning-quick release. The one knock on him is that he's older so is he dominating because he's more mature than the players he's playing against? But his film suggests he's got a lot of skill so I think he's got the potential. Also really like Jarvis. Sadly, I think both those guys will be gone before the Habs get to select.

For Lapierre, the big question on him was his injury history, so his getting the chance to get back out and play this season before the draft is a boon for him. Still a risk with the concussions and all but a potential top 10 talent who could fall to you later in the draft if you're willing to take the risk. I think he'd be hard to pass up at 15 or 16 given who else might be left. While a lot of mocks have the Leafs drafting a D man, I think the guy they want is probably Schneider and I think he too will be gone before 15. There are two clear top 10 D men (Drysdale and Sanderson) and another couple who are probably in the top 20 (Schneider and Guehle), but given the paucity of good options, you might see teams jump a bit early on those guys, especially some of these teams that have multiple first rounders. One of the big questions I had in mocking this out was Ottawa... if I were making a big board of best available players, I'd actually have Stutzle at #2, Drysdale at #3, and Byfield at #4. I think those have to be in your top 4, and I wonder if Ottawa would select Drysdale at #3 knowing they could get an elite forward at #5. The problem is that I think Stutzle and Byfield are a cut above the other forwards too, and Ottawa already has Chabot and Brannstrom in their organization, so I think they'll jump at the chance to grab a first-line forward. If they didn't have Chabot, then IMO Drysdale would be the clear choice there. And as much as I like Stutzle as a player (he's frequently comp'd to Matt Barzal, who I also really liked in his draft year), if you can get a big guy with skill as your 1C (like a Spezza, Thornton, Malkin, Carter, etc.) those guys can be a bit easier to build around in terms of finding a 2C/3C and 1st line wingers, when you don't have to worry about whether your line-up is too small and whether you then have to find a bigger 2C to be able to handle certain match-ups against other teams' big top 6 centers and so on. So I still think LA jumps on Byfield for that reason.

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13 minutes ago, 26NCounting said:

Draft tonight!!

I would be ecstatic if we could end up with Jarvis @16, think he would be a steal for us

Jarvis could be this year's Caufield - falling because of size but I love his vision and motor. I am really hoping Bergevin packages something up with a 2nd rounder  for a another top pick such as Perreault, Gunler, Foerster etc. - get rid of some parts that do not fit.

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7 minutes ago, claremont said:

Jarvis could be this year's Caufield - falling because of size but I love his vision and motor. I am really hoping Bergevin packages something up with a 2nd rounder  for a another top pick such as Perreault, Gunler, Foerster etc. - get rid of some parts that do not fit.

I feel like there's a decent chance he:  

  • trades his 1st + _____ to get an established high end RW.  
  • trades a domi for another first rounder (higher than our current one)
  • does nothing because trades are hard. :P

WIll be interesting to see how today plays out. I really think its up in the air at this point. 

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14 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I feel like there's a decent chance he:  

  • trades his 1st + _____ to get an established high end RW.  
  • trades a domi for another first rounder (higher than our current one)
  • does nothing because trades are hard. :P

WIll be interesting to see how today plays out. I really think its up in the air at this point. 

     the possibilities are endless but the opportunities are few ...finding the right dance partner for the right trade that fills both teams needs is a difficult task ...I think if anything it will be * trades his 1st plus ( fill in the blanks ) for an established high end RW ....so far Bergevin  has stayed the course in  stocking the system  ....maybe it's time to let some young players not named Suzuki, KK ,Primeau or Romanov go  ....I expect something significant .

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2 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I don't think anything will happen, but I don't blame MB, it takes two to tango. I have no problem making the pick and keeping Domi if a good deal is not available. We don't HAVE to do anything

absolutely though many would disagree ...I'm not in favour of losing Domi unless it's for a Laine ...I think Max has a lot to prove this year 

 

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On 10/3/2020 at 4:54 PM, BigTed3 said:

Personally, I think the odds are higher we trade the pick than keep it. Bergevin's in win-now mode both because his veteran core is aging and because he needs to save his own job, our pick isn't a lottery pick, and we have a bunch of 2nd rounders to make up in part for losing a mid-1st rounder. The factors are there to make trading the #1 more plausible. That said, if we keep it, these are the players I think are 90%+ likely to be gone by the time we pick:

I agree with this and I think based on our track record, id almost rather move 16th OVA than one of our 2nd rounders. lol. 

In the middle-first round we tend to go "safe safe safe" and in the 2nd we often go a little off the board.  We have plenty of "safe" nhl prospects.  We need a couple of guys who may be a little risky but have top end potential.  


Plus of course the 1st rounder will bring back a much higher return than any of our seconds. 

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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

I agree with this and I think based on our track record, id almost rather move 16th OVA than one of our 2nd rounders. lol. 

In the middle-first round we tend to go "safe safe safe" and in the 2nd we often go a little off the board.  We have plenty of "safe" nhl prospects.  We need a couple of guys who may be a little risky but have top end potential.  


Plus of course the 1st rounder will bring back a much higher return than any of our seconds. 

Wouldn't that be awesome, when it came to the Habs turn to pick, that they called a time out, and that they tell us they have an announcement to make. The Montreal Canadiens trade the 16th pick in the 2020 draft to ........................

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1 minute ago, maas_art said:

Its funny how some people were so adamant they would pick a centre instead!

Best comparables for Lafreniere and Stutzle are, for me, Huberdeau and Barzal respectively. Not sure one is clearly better than the other, but Lafreniere has got all the hype and Stutzle comes from Germany.

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Interesting choice for Ottawa now. Stutzle is the obvious choice, but if you also have #5 and know you can get a Perfetti or Rossi there anyways, do you draft Drysdale? As I said in my mock, I think you would if you didn't have Chabot. But my guess is that having Chabot, they go forward here and draft Stutzle.

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