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Manatee-X

Magic Number 2020

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Heeeeeeeeya Habs fans!  Welcome back to the most exciting thread of the year, our annual MN countdown to the playoffs!  And as a special added bonus, this year the number should actually matter! :)

 

What is the Magic Number, you ask?  Basically, when it gets to 0 we will have officially clinched a playoff spot.  Want more info than that?  All of the magic will be revealed in the long post below! 

 

But first, I'll quickly mention that we haven't heard from Flying_Lion this season.  While he has very graciously run this thread over the past few years we've been treated to fantastic updates with lots of stats and fancy-looking tables.  I.... will probably not be providing that.  I'll do my best to give regular updates on which games to watch for the bonuses, but if there's anybody out there who wants to volunteer to spruce up the tables or create some fancy spreadsheets I'd be very happy for the help!  Otherwise, you'll just have to put up with my beautiful ASCII renditions of the standings :P.  We'll start by updating the basic MN and the MN pace on regular basis, but I'll work towards filling in the other numbers (home ice, division, etc.) as needed when we get closer to the end of the season.

 

And so, without further ado, here we go!

 

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WHAT IS THE MAGIC NUMBER (MN)?

 

In the simplest terms, the MN is the number of points in the NHL standings the Habs need to earn to be GUARANTEED a playoff position. When the MN hits 0, we're officially in the playoffs!
 

HOW DOES IT WORK?

The question that the magic number answers is this: how many more points will the Habs need to earn in order to get into the playoffs in the absolute worst-case scenario?

What is that worst case scenario? That would be if every other team in our conference were to win every game they play for the rest of the season. That's why the starting number is 165. If every team in the East wins each of their games then they will all end up with 164 points. We would therefore need 165 in order to guarantee at least eighth place.

Now obviously it's impossible for every other team to win every game, if nothing else because the teams will be playing games against one another. As those teams lose games the magic number will start to fall. Likewise, each Canadiens win will also cause a drop - the more points we already have, the fewer we'll need in order to reach that worst-case 8th place threshold.

 

WHEN DOES THE NUMBER DROP?

 

As mentioned above, the starting number is 165. Generally speaking:

  • It is reduced by 2 points every time the Canadiens win a game in regulation.
  • It is reduced by 1 point every time the Canadiens lose in overtime or in the shootout.
  • It is reduced by 2 points every time the 8th place team* loses a game in regulation.
  • It is reduced by 1 point every time the 8th place team* loses a game in OT or SO.

*the 8th place team as determined by the NL standings, disregarding the Canadiens. See below.

 

 

 

WHAT IS THIS "NL STANDINGS" TABLE THAT YOU'RE ALWAYS POSTING?

Simply put, you can think of it this way: the NL (or Number of Losses) standings table is what the actual standings would be at the end of the year if every team won every game remaining in their schedule.

 

As I mentioned earlier, the MN calculations assume that every other team is going to win every game. As a result, nothing really changes when a team wins - our worst-case assumption was proven correct and the MN stays the same. The magic number is only affected when a team loses, since each loss reduces their maximum possible point total. Because of this, we rework the NHL standings table in a way that prioritizes the number of losses (or NL). This lets us easily see who the 8th place team is that we're trying to beat. As long as we stay ahead of this 8th place "bubble team" we're going to get a playoff spot.

 

 

WASN'T THERE A BUNCH MATH INVOLVED IN ALL THIS?

Not for most of us!  As it turns out, though, the math isn't actually very complicated at all. The tough part is keeping the NL table up-to-date after each game in order to figure out who the "bubble team" is. The bubble team is the team that we need to beat in order to reach our goal of making the playoffs - if we're in the bottom half of the NL standings we need to beat the team that's currently in 8th. If we're in the top half of the NL standings then we need to stay ahead of the team that's currently in 9th. For other MNs (i.e. those that look for us to clinch the division or the conference) the "bubble team" becomes whichever team is currently holding the spot that we want to occupy.

Once you know who the bubble team (BT) is, however, the MN is very easy to find:

MN = (BT's current points) + (BT's games remaining * 2) - (Canadiens current points) + 1


 

WHAT ARE BONUS POINTS?

 

"Bonus points" is a term we use to refer to the MN dropping because of the results of a game that the Habs aren't involved in. Broadly speaking, we get 2 bonus points when the bubble team loses in regulation and 1 when they lose in OT or SO.

 

 

WHAT ARE ALL THESE OTHER NUMBERS?

 

In addition to the standard magic number, there are a few other things that we keep track of (some of which we'll get into nearer the end of the season):

 

MN Pace

This is the average pace that the MN has been dropping per Habs game. This includes both points that we earn ourselves and bonus points earned from other teams' losses. If the MN pace is above 2.0 then we're on pace to clinch a playoff spot at the end of the year.

 

MN EPD ( Estimated Party Date) NUMBER

This number is a prediction of when the MN will hit 0, based on the MN Pace to this point and the assumption that we'll continue on the same pace.

MN HOME ICE, DIVISION & CONFERENCE NUMBERS
Same principle is applied as the regular MN number. When these numbers hit 0 then we have clinched that honour.

MN T.O. NO GO NUMBER
A different twist to this number. When it reaches 0 then the LEAFS are officially ELIMINATED from the playoffs.
The same principle can be applied for any other team you may hate. Make a request and we will calculate it here.

And that's it! I tried to cover off just about everything that I could think of, but if you have any questions at all feel free to ask them in the forum or to send me a PM. Until next time, happy MNing!:)

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Current NL Standings:

  Team Conference GP PTS NL
1 Boston Bruins A 15 24 3
2 New York Islanders M 14 22 3
3 Washington Capitals M 16 25 3.5
4 Buffalo Sabres A 15 20 5
5 Florida Panthers A 14 18 5
6 Carolina Hurricanes M 15 19 5.5
7 Montreal Canadiens A 15 18 6
8 Philadelphia Flyers M 14 16 6
9 Tampa Bay Lightning A 13 14 6
10 Toronto Maple Leafs A 16 19 6.5
11 Pittsburgh Penguins M 15 17 6.5
12 New York Rangers M 13 13 6.5
13 New Jersey Devils M 13 12 7
14 Columbus Blue Jackets M 15 13 8.5
15 Ottawa Senators A 14 9 9.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 17 9 12.5

 

MN 135
MN Pace 2.00
MN EPD GM 82

 

 

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Bonus Alert:

Turns out that today is a great day to start tracking the MN for this year, since tonight's game is a BYOB (bring your own bonuses) affair!  A win VS the flyers is a guaranteed 3 points off the magic number! 

In theory we can get it a perfect 4-point drop, but only if we win in regulation and if the Rangers, Leafs and Penguins all lose their games.

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Place just wouldn't be the same without the Magic Number thread. Thank you Manatee.:4322:

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The tough part about tracking this number is determining who the bubble team is. It likely changes a lot ( sometimes nightly) based on who the wildcard teams are. It's important to remember that the 3 top teams in each division are in a playoff spot regardless of points from the other division.

In other words,,,, the top 6 spots have to be composed of 3 teams from each division

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Well it could have been better, but we helped ourselves a little bit: MN is down two points to 133

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 Boston Bruins A 15 24 3
2 Washington Capitals M 17 27 3.5
3 New York Islanders M 15 23 3.5
4 Buffalo Sabres A 15 20 5
5 Florida Panthers A 15 19 5.5
6 Philadelphia Flyers M 15 18 6
7 Tampa Bay Lightning A 13 14 6
8 Toronto Maple Leafs A 17 21 6.5
9 Montreal Canadiens A 16 19 6.5
10 Carolina Hurricanes M 16 19 6.5
11 Pittsburgh Penguins M 16 19 6.5
12 New York Rangers M 14 15 6.5
13 New Jersey Devils M 14 12 8
14 Columbus Blue Jackets M 16 15 8.5
15 Ottawa Senators A 15 11 9.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 17 9 12.5

 

MN 133
MN Pace 2.00
MN EPD 82

 

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I don't want to try to think about all of the bonus combinations and permutations for the weekend, but basically we're looking to clear that log jam around 8th place.  Losses to anybody from 6th place Philly to 12th place NYR would all be helpful.

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It wasn't much, but we got 1 point of Bonus help over the weekend.  It was enough to bring us back over the line to 8th place.

1 New York Islanders M 16 25 3.5
2 Washington Capitals M 19 30 4
3 Boston Bruins A 17 25 4.5
4 Philadelphia Flyers M 17 22 6
5 Tampa Bay Lightning A 15 18 6
6 Florida Panthers A 17 21 6.5
7 Pittsburgh Penguins M 17 21 6.5
8 Montreal Canadiens A 17 21 6.5
9 Buffalo Sabres A 17 20 7
10 New York Rangers M 15 16 7
11 Carolina Hurricanes M 18 21 7.5
12 Toronto Maple Leafs A 19 22 8
13 New Jersey Devils M 16 14 9
14 Columbus Blue Jackets M 17 15 9.5
15 Ottawa Senators A 17 13 10.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 19 13 12.5

 

MN 130
MN Pace 2.06
MN EPD GM 80

 

 

 

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Bonus Watch:

We have the chance to make some headway tonight, as Pittsburgh and the Rangers play one another.  Worst case result is an overtime win for the Rangers - regulation is best in either direction.

We get a bonus point if the Panthers lose in regulation, unless the Rangers win in OT.

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"Worst case scenario is an overtime win for the Rangers"

-Manatee-X, who should keep his big mouth shut :P 

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 New York Islanders M 16 25 3.5
2 Washington Capitals M 19 30 4
3 Boston Bruins A 18 26 5
4 Philadelphia Flyers M 17 22 6
5 Tampa Bay Lightning A 15 18 6
6 Florida Panthers A 18 23 6.5
7 Montreal Canadiens A 18 23 6.5
8 Pittsburgh Penguins M 18 22 7
9 Buffalo Sabres A 17 20 7
10 New York Rangers M 16 18 7
11 Carolina Hurricanes M 18 21 7.5
12 Toronto Maple Leafs A 19 22 8
13 New Jersey Devils M 16 14 9
14 Columbus Blue Jackets M 18 16 10
15 Ottawa Senators A 17 13 10.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 20 15 12.5

 

MN 128
MN Pace 2.06
MN EPD GM 80

 

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Bonus Watch

Nothing doing tonight, but tomorrow we've got a bunch of games between teams that are bunched up in the standings.  We'll be hoping for a Jets win over the Panthers and regulation finishes in the Rangers/Lightning and Hurricanes/Sabres games

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Well somewhere in the last few days we grabbed a point.  MN is now down to 127.

 

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 New York Islanders M 17 27 3.5
2 Washington Capitals M 20 32 4
3 Boston Bruins A 18 26 5
4 Tampa Bay Lightning A 16 20 6
5 Philadelphia Flyers M 18 23 6.5
6 Montreal Canadiens A 18 23 6.5
7 Pittsburgh Penguins M 18 22 7
8 Florida Panthers A 19 23 7.5
9 Carolina Hurricanes M 19 23 7.5
10 Buffalo Sabres A 18 21 7.5
11 New York Rangers M 17 18 8
12 Toronto Maple Leafs A 20 22 9
13 Columbus Blue Jackets M 18 16 10
14 New Jersey Devils M 17 14 10
15 Ottawa Senators A 18 15 10.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 21 16 13

 

MN 127
MN Pace 2.11
MN EPD GM 78

 

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Bonus Watch

Nothing doing tonight, ladies and gents.  If we want to see the number drop we're going to have to put in the work ourselves.

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22 hours ago, Manatee-X said:

Bonus Watch

Nothing doing tonight, ladies and gents.  If we want to see the number drop we're going to have to put in the work ourselves.

Done!

Capitalized!

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On 11/16/2019 at 11:16 AM, HabsRuleForever said:

Done!

Capitalized!

Indeed!  We secured 3 out of 4 pts ourselves, and picked up another bonus in there besides to keep pace.  In other good news we got a few favours from the teams bunched up around us, meaning that the log jam that had built up around bonus points has cleared up a bit.

 

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 New York Islanders M 18 29 3.5
2 Washington Capitals M 22 34 5
3 Boston Bruins A 20 29 5.5
4 Philadelphia Flyers M 18 23 6.5
5 Montreal Canadiens A 20 26 7
6 Tampa Bay Lightning A 17 20 7
7 Florida Panthers A 20 25 7.5
8 Carolina Hurricanes M 20 25 7.5
9 Pittsburgh Penguins M 20 24 8
10 Buffalo Sabres A 20 23 8.5
11 New York Rangers M 18 18 9
12 Columbus Blue Jackets M 19 18 10
13 New Jersey Devils M 19 18 10
14 Toronto Maple Leafs A 22 22 11
15 Ottawa Senators A 20 17 11.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 22 17 13.5

 

MN 123
MN Pace 2.10
MN EPD GM 79
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Bonus Watch

No exciting games tonight with the light schedule, but we've got plenty of teams in action tomorrow.  Any loss for the Penguins against the mighty Islanders nabs us a point, and we also get one if the Panthers or Canes lose in regulation.  We can make it a rare 4-pt night if we can beat Columbus, if the Sabres lose and if the Pens lose is regulation.

Let's go Western Conference!

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So good news!  I missed updating Philly's games on the last spreadsheet, so we were actually in a better bonus situation than I had reported.  We got those bonus points in the end, but unfortunately couldn't get the job done ourselves.  Oh well, on to tonight!

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 New York Islanders M 19 31 3.5
2 Washington Capitals M 23 36 5
3 Boston Bruins A 21 31 5.5
4 Florida Panthers A 21 27 7.5
5 Carolina Hurricanes M 21 27 7.5
6 Montreal Canadiens A 21 26 8
7 Tampa Bay Lightning A 18 20 8
8 Pittsburgh Penguins M 21 25 8.5
9 Philadelphia Flyers M 21 24 9
10 New York Rangers M 18 18 9
11 Buffalo Sabres A 21 23 9.5
12 Columbus Blue Jackets M 20 20 10
13 New Jersey Devils M 20 18 11
14 Ottawa Senators A 21 19 11.5
15 Toronto Maple Leafs A 23 22 12
16 Detroit Red Wings A 23 17 14.5

 

MN 121
MN Pace 2.10
MN EPD GM 79

 

 

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Bonus Watch

No bonuses tonight, although a Washington win is better for us than a New York win.

 

Side Note Gloating

Wow... how about those Leafs, eh?  Currently second from the bottom on the NL standings and still falling.  Looks like we might need to start thinking about the Leafs No Go number a bit earlier than I had previously thought!

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4 hours ago, Manatee-X said:

Side Note Gloating

Wow... how about those Leafs, eh?  Currently second from the bottom on the NL standings and still falling.  Looks like we might need to start thinking about the Leafs No Go number a bit earlier than I had previously thought!

I'm always thinking about that!

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Well I guess I shouldn't have resorted to gloating last time.  We're still hanging on in a tie for the last playoff spot in the NL standings, but if we're going to keep up we're going to have to start winning some of our games.

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 New York Islanders M 22 34 5
2 Boston Bruins A 23 35 5.5
3 Washington Capitals M 25 37 6.5
4 Tampa Bay Lightning A 21 26 8
5 Carolina Hurricanes M 24 31 8.5
6 Pittsburgh Penguins M 24 30 9
7 Florida Panthers A 24 29 9.5
8 Philadelphia Flyers M 24 29 9.5
9 Montreal Canadiens A 23 27 9.5
10 New York Rangers M 22 24 10
11 Columbus Blue Jackets M 23 24 11
12 Buffalo Sabres A 24 25 11.5
13 Toronto Maple Leafs A 25 26 12
14 New Jersey Devils M 22 20 12
15 Ottawa Senators A 24 23 12.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 26 17 17.5

 

MN 119
MN Pace 2.00
MN EPD 82
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On the cusp...

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Not much magic in the number these days.  It's been a week since the last update, and we're down... three points.  Not much use getting bonuses if we can't win a few ourselves.

But then, onward and upward.  Here's to better days ahead!

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 Boston Bruins A 27 43 5.5
2 New York Islanders M 24 36 6
3 Washington Capitals M 28 43 6.5
4 Philadelphia Flyers M 27 35 9.5
5 Carolina Hurricanes M 27 33 10.5
6 Florida Panthers A 26 31 10.5
7 New York Rangers M 25 29 10.5
8 Tampa Bay Lightning A 24 27 10.5
9 Pittsburgh Penguins M 27 32 11
10 Buffalo Sabres A 27 29 12.5
11 Toronto Maple Leafs A 28 30 13
12 Montreal Canadiens A 27 28 13
13 Columbus Blue Jackets M 26 26 13
14 New Jersey Devils M 25 22 14
15 Ottawa Senators A 27 23 15.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 29 17 20.5

 

MN 116
MN Pace 1.81
MN EPD Game 91

 

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Bonus Watch

On the brighter side, we've got pretty good odds for bonus points in the next few days.  The Rangers, Panthers, Hurricanes and Lightning all play either tonight or tomorrow, and if even one of them loses their game we get a point.  If at least two of them lose in regulation we get two points.

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Well waddaya know, it happened!  4 point drop!

We've still got a bit of a climb and we need to string together some wins, but I'm not going to be the one to look this gift horse in the mouth.  Onwards and upwards!

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 Boston Bruins A 28 45 5.5
2 Washington Capitals M 28 43 6.5
3 New York Islanders M 26 38 7
4 Philadelphia Flyers M 28 37 9.5
5 Tampa Bay Lightning A 25 29 10.5
6 Pittsburgh Penguins M 27 32 11
7 Carolina Hurricanes M 28 33 11.5
8 Florida Panthers A 27 31 11.5
9 New York Rangers M 26 29 11.5
10 Buffalo Sabres A 28 31 12.5
11 Montreal Canadiens A 28 30 13
12 Toronto Maple Leafs A 29 30 14
13 Columbus Blue Jackets M 27 26 14
14 New Jersey Devils M 27 22 16
15 Ottawa Senators A 28 23 16.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 30 17 21.5

 

MN 112
MN Pace 1.89
MN EPD GM 87
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