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Manatee-X

Magic Number 2020

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Bonus Watch

It's a bit of a log jam, but there's still a chance for bonuses over the next few days.  Regulation losses to both the Hurricanes and the Rangers on Thursday would bring us down by the full two points.  We pick up one point if we see any two of the following: a regulation loss by the Penguins, or any loss by Carolina or New York.

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Yeesh... not much movement last week.  We'll likely get a bit of bonus help coming up, but unless we do something ourselves it's not going to matter.

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 Washington Capitals M 31 49 6.5
2 Boston Bruins A 30 46 7
3 New York Islanders M 28 40 8
4 Philadelphia Flyers M 30 39 10.5
5 Pittsburgh Penguins M 30 38 11
6 Carolina Hurricanes M 30 37 11.5
7 Florida Panthers A 29 35 11.5
8 Tampa Bay Lightning A 27 31 11.5
9 New York Rangers M 29 33 12.5
10 Buffalo Sabres A 31 34 14
11 Montreal Canadiens A 30 32 14
12 Toronto Maple Leafs A 31 32 15
13 Columbus Blue Jackets M 29 26 16
14 New Jersey Devils M 30 25 17.5
15 Ottawa Senators A 29 23 17.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 31 17 22.5

 

MN 110
MN Pace 1.83
MN EPD GM 90

 

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Bonus Watch

We're watching the same bubble teams this week.  Any loss to Tampa, Florida or Carolina or a regulation loss to the Pens will knock points off the MN.  Again, though, what we really need now is to bring that MN Pace back up to 2, which means we need to win our own games.

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I've been waiting and only doing a few of these a week, but it's just more fun to post them after we win :)

Especially when we get a... wait for it.... 4 POINT DROP!

 

As the kids used to say, w00t!  Let's keep 'er rolling tonight!

 

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 Washington Capitals M 32 49 7.5
2 Boston Bruins A 31 46 8
3 New York Islanders M 29 42 8
4 Philadelphia Flyers M 30 39 10.5
5 Carolina Hurricanes M 31 39 11.5
6 Pittsburgh Penguins M 31 38 12
7 Florida Panthers A 30 35 12.5
8 Tampa Bay Lightning A 29 33 12.5
9 New York Rangers M 30 33 13.5
10 Buffalo Sabres A 32 36 14
11 Montreal Canadiens A 31 34 14
12 Toronto Maple Leafs A 32 34 15
13 Columbus Blue Jackets M 30 28 16
14 Ottawa Senators A 31 27 17.5
15 New Jersey Devils M 30 23 18.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 32 17 23.5

 

MN 106
MN Pace 1.90
MN EPD GM 87

 

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Bonus Watch

If we can do our job tonight, this could be an extraordinarily good week for our magic number.  A regulation loss to Tampa against the Bruins OR the Panthers against the Islanders tomorrow would net us two bonus points (and, dare I say, potentially a second 4-pt drop this week).  Both of those results are very possible, so we really don't want to waste this opportunity against a surging Senators team tonight.  Pittsburgh losing in regulation against the Jackets would also earn us 1 bonus point if both of the other bubble teams happen to win.

Go Habs go!

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Heya sports fans!


Don't look now, but we've cleared 100 and we're only half a game back from the ever-important 8th position.  Another win or two and we'll be back in control of our own destiny!

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 Washington Capitals M 35 53 8.5
2 New York Islanders M 32 46 9
3 Boston Bruins A 35 49 10.5
4 Carolina Hurricanes M 34 44 12
5 Pittsburgh Penguins M 34 44 12
6 Philadelphia Flyers M 34 41 13.5
7 Tampa Bay Lightning A 32 37 13.5
8 Florida Panthers A 33 37 14.5
9 New York Rangers M 33 36 15
10 Montreal Canadiens A 34 38 15
11 Buffalo Sabres A 35 39 15.5
12 Toronto Maple Leafs A 35 38 16
13 Columbus Blue Jackets M 34 34 17
14 Ottawa Senators A 35 31 19.5
15 New Jersey Devils M 33 27 19.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 36 21 25.5

 

MN 98
MN Pace 1.97
MN EPD GM 84

 

 

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Bonus Watch

Florida's the team to beat right now - any loss from them vs Dallas tomorrow will net us a point.  In theory the best-case scenario also involves the Leafs beating the Rangers, but I won't hold it against you if you decide to sit out cheering for either team in that case :).

As always, though, the biggest consideration is that we need to win our own game.  If we can take a W from Calgary tonight we could be back in the playoff picture by Saturday morning.

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1 hour ago, Manatee-X said:

Bonus Watch

Florida's the team to beat right now - any loss from them vs Dallas tomorrow will net us a point.  In theory the best-case scenario also involves the Leafs beating the Rangers, but I won't hold it against you if you decide to sit out cheering for either team in that case :).

As always, though, the biggest consideration is that we need to win our own game.  If we can take a W from Calgary tonight we could be back in the playoff picture by Saturday morning.

Not "If" When!!! 

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8 hours ago, HabsRuleForever said:

W from Calgary taken!

Yep! Losses to Tampa and Buffalo were great, too!  The bigger games from our opponents are tonight - let's go Stars!

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We picked up a bonus somewhere along the line last week, bringing us down 3 to 95.  We're still right there on the cusp, a single game back of eighth place.  It amazes me every year how thin the line is and how quickly a team's fortunes can turn around - a win tonight against Winnipeg to bring us into the Christmas break would make me feel a lot better.

 

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 Washington Capitals M 37 57 8.5
2 New York Islanders M 34 49 9.5
3 Boston Bruins A 37 51 11.5
4 Carolina Hurricanes M 36 46 13
5 Pittsburgh Penguins M 36 46 13
6 Philadelphia Flyers M 36 45 13.5
7 Florida Panthers A 35 41 14.5
8 Tampa Bay Lightning A 34 38 15
9 Toronto Maple Leafs A 37 42 16
10 Montreal Canadiens A 36 40 16
11 New York Rangers M 35 38 16
12 Buffalo Sabres A 37 41 16.5
13 Columbus Blue Jackets M 36 38 17
14 Ottawa Senators A 37 34 20
15 New Jersey Devils M 35 27 21.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 38 21 27.5

 

MN 95
MN Pace 1.94
MN EPD GM 85

 

 

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Bonus Watch

We should get some early Christmas gifts of some kind tonight, as the Canes/Leafs, Lightning/Panthers and Rangers/Flyers games all feature pairs of teams that are competing with us in the standings.  The one to watch the closest is the Florida bowl; if the Bolts win in regulation or the Panthers win in OT we get a point, while a regulation Panthers win nets us the full 2.

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Welp, I guess the Habs must not have been very good this year because we got nothing but coal in our MN stockings.  Two losses against Tampa and Florida, the very teams that we're trying to pass to get back into the playoffs, leaves us a lot worse off than we could have been otherwise.  Here's to a better 2020, what do you say?

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 Washington Capitals M 40 59 10.5
2 Boston Bruins A 40 57 11.5
3 New York Islanders M 37 51 11.5
4 Pittsburgh Penguins M 38 50 13
5 Philadelphia Flyers M 39 49 14.5
6 Carolina Hurricanes M 39 48 15
7 Tampa Bay Lightning A 37 44 15
8 Florida Panthers A 38 45 15.5
9 Toronto Maple Leafs A 40 47 16.5
10 New York Rangers M 38 42 17
11 Columbus Blue Jackets M 39 42 18
12 Montreal Canadiens A 39 42 18
13 Buffalo Sabres A 40 41 19.5
14 Ottawa Senators A 39 37 20.5
15 New Jersey Devils M 38 32 22
16 Detroit Red Wings A 40 21 29.5

 

MN 92
MN Pace 1.87
MN EPD GM 88

 

 

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Bonus Watch

We can make our own bonus tomorrow night, as a regulation win vs Carolina nets us an extra point.  The only way to get the full 2 bonus points is if the Panthers lose in regulation to the Jackets.

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A bit of movement last week, but overall we're going in the wrong direction.  Our pace is dropping, and worse still our losses have often been to teams that we're trying to catch.  Hopefully some fresh faces will be enough to salvage 2020, which has not been particularly kind to us so far.

We're currently three games back of the line, which is not fantastic.  We're going to need a bit of a streak, and soon, to turn things around.

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 Washington Capitals M 43 63 11.5
2 Boston Bruins A 43 59 13.5
3 New York Islanders M 40 53 13.5
4 Pittsburgh Penguins M 42 55 14.5
5 Tampa Bay Lightning A 41 52 15
6 Toronto Maple Leafs A 43 53 16.5
7 Carolina Hurricanes M 42 50 17
8 Philadelphia Flyers M 42 49 17.5
9 Florida Panthers A 42 49 17.5
10 Columbus Blue Jackets M 42 46 19
11 New York Rangers M 41 42 20
12 Buffalo Sabres A 43 45 20.5
13 Montreal Canadiens A 42 43 20.5
14 New Jersey Devils M 41 36 23
15 Ottawa Senators A 42 37 23.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 43 23 31.5

 

MN 87
MN Pace 1.86
MN EPD GM 89

 

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Bonus Watch

We're looking for losses to two of Carolina, Philly and Florida in order to move the number down, and the small bit of good news is that since the Flyers and the Canes play each other, we're already half way there! :) 

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Well we beat Ottawa.  In OT.  That... a thing, right?  Good job guys!

On the other hand, our pace took another big drop and we're getting farther and farther from having a shot.  I hate to do it, but starting next week it might finally be time to give up and add the no-go number to the list.

 

    Conference GP PTS NL
1 Washington Capitals M 46 65 13.5
2 Boston Bruins A 46 65 13.5
3 New York Islanders M 43 58 14
4 Pittsburgh Penguins M 45 61 14.5
5 Tampa Bay Lightning A 45 58 16
6 Carolina Hurricanes M 45 56 17
7 Florida Panthers A 45 53 18.5
8 Toronto Maple Leafs A 46 54 19
9 Philadelphia Flyers M 45 52 19
10 Columbus Blue Jackets M 46 52 20
11 New York Rangers M 44 46 21
12 Buffalo Sabres A 46 47 22.5
13 Montreal Canadiens A 46 45 23.5
14 New Jersey Devils M 45 41 24.5
15 Ottawa Senators A 45 39 25.5
16 Detroit Red Wings A 46 27 32.5

 

MN 82
MN Pace 1.80
MN EPD GM 91
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Bonus Watch

We're far enough back right now that specific bonuses don't matter so much as we need to see everyone from Florida to Buffalo drop some games.  For what it's worth, though, we'll need losses to two of Florida, Toronto and Philly to bring the number down.

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FWIW, this is the Habs' remaining schedule broken down:

- 10 Home games, 15 Away games

- Of the 10 home games, 5 are against teams currently in the playoffs (Van, Car, Fla, Dal, NYI), with Nashville and Arizona being two others just on the outside looking in. The final 3 are against Buf x 2 and NYR x 1. So no games against the league's top teams (which I would consider to include TB, Bos, Pit, Was, and Stl as the top 5, followed by Col and LV thereafter) but also no gimmes either. 10 winnable games all in all.

- Of the 15 Away games, this is where it gets trickier. There are 8 games against teams in playoffs positions (Was, Pit, Bos, TB, Fla, NYI, Tor, Col), with additional games against teams still battling for the playoffs (Chi, Nas) and then 5 games against teams that should be out (Ott, Det, SJ, LA, Ana). However, three of those easier games are a West coast road trip, which is never easy.

- Two of the games (Dal this week) and Nas on Apr 1st are the second half of back-to-backs, and both times the other team will be rested, and we'll be playing in a different city the night before.

- Given how tight the standings are for most teams, it's also very unlikely that we hit a team resting starters this year.

 

So count the toughest games... in order for me, they are

 

- at Tampa

- at Washington

- at Colorado

- vs Dallas (2nd half of B2B)

- at Nasville (2nd half B2B)

- at Pittsburgh

- vs Carolina

If you drop those 7, that means you have to win the rest. You win one of those above, and it gives you another spot to lose one somewhere else. But as it stands by my count, we have to sweep the 3 games on the West coast and go minimum 8-2 at home the rest of the way. That would give us 97 points, which according to sportsclubstats gives us about a 54% chance of making the post-season.

 

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So looking at the rest of the schedule and considering Weber may be out for most if not all of the rest of the season, I'd predict roughly

- Dal: L

- Det: W

- Was: L

- Ott: W

- Van: W

- NYR: OTL

- Car: L

- NYI: W

- TB: L

- Fla: L

- Nas: W

- Buf: W

- Ana: L

- LA: W

- SJ: L

- Col: L

- Buf: W

- Fla: OTL

- NYI: L

- Chi: L

- Nas: L

- Tor: W

That would be 9-11-2 in the last 22 games, for a total of 20 more points. That would give us 81 on the season, which probably puts us in the range of being 9th to 12th last. Not as good a pick as we could have hoped for unless we win the lottery. IMO, the top 7-8 picks are pretty stellar and there's some drop-off after that, so we're currently outside the window of what would be helpful...

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Habs playoff chances down to 0.3%. They would need to go 14-1-1 to have a 50% chance or better of getting in.

Conversely, last night was great for our tank purposes. Our most likely finish right now is 7th-last, followed closely by 8th-last. Combined, we have about a 45% of finishing in one of those two positions.

To finish 5th last, the numbers are telling us we'd have to finish 4-11-1 to make that our most realistic finish.

To finish 6th last, we'd have to go 6-10 to make that our most likely finishing spot.

 

Schedule-wise, our next 5 games are against teams in playoff contention who are in tight races... Car, at NYI, at TB, at Fla, and Nas. Good opportunity to try and get no more than 3 of 10 points. If we beat Buffalo and go 2-2 on the West coast trip, that puts us at 4-5-1 in the next 10. We then finish with games against Buf, Fla, and NYI at home and Chi, Nas, and Tor on the road. If we go 2-4 in that stretch, we'd put together a 6-9-1 record, which would put our most likely finish at 7th last. It's going to be hard to put up a record worse than that to improve our draft position, unless we have worse injuries or they finally decide to rest some veterans like Carey, Weber, and Gallagher.

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