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TRADE DEADLINE - KOVY, THOMPSON, PECA, COUSINS TRADED

427 posts in this topic

14 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

I don't believe MB will be an aggressive buyer or seller because he's shown he has a lot of trouble committing to an actual plan. He's already told us he doesn't want to trade away blue chip prospects and high draft picks. So while he may tinker, what is he really going to acquire that's going to significantly improve this team's chances of making the playoffs and a Cup run? He's no getting a top-pairing LHD for spare parts. He's not getting a 1C. And while he may find a back-up goalie for what he's willing to give up, how many games is the back-up going to play down the stretch? 5? How many in the playoffs if Carey is healthy? Probably none.

In terms of selling, I think MB also won't do much. Most of the guys who could bring big returns are signed past this season, and I think MB feels we can compete for a playoff spot next year and wants to keep guys around who can help him with that. He's not concerned with winning a Cup. To him, getting in the playoffs is a reasonable goal. So yes, keeping Weber, Price, Tatar, and Petry help you towards that goal, but they don't advance your chances of ever winning a Cup really. MB might turn around and trade a Nate Thompson or a Kulak or maybe even a Scandella or Kovalchuk, but the best I think we'll be able to hope for is a 2nd rounder for Kovalchuk and otherwise it's likely going to be mid-round picks or B-rated prospects coming back. Once again, I don't see anything earth-shattering happening here.

Bergevin has gone on record saying you make your roster in June and then live with it the rest of the season, so right now he's living with it. Personally I think he's too afraid to make any kind of substantial move the rest of the way this season and if any changes are going to be made, I feel they'll likely be more lateral moves than anything at the draft.

Totally agree.  I think even guys like Kovalchuk and Scandella will remain with us (unless we absolutely plummet before the deadline) and MB will say "these guys are our rentals"

 

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8 hours ago, maas_art said:

Agree.  Whether or not its possible, I think MB will believe we can win.  Assuming you need roughly 96-98 points to make the playoffs, you need to finish the year roughly 7-8 games above .500    Right now we're at .500 exactly (21-21-7)

We're going to need to win like 23 of our last 33 games.  I dont love the odds but I think MB looks at it like "we're going to get players back, Kovy is playing awesome.. Price back to top form" this can happen. 

The overall confidence of the players still seems very shaky, but if they can string together say 5 or 6 wins things could change in a hurry.  

Let's keep in mind a lot of teams in front of us will need to poop the bed before we get in the playoffs.

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1 hour ago, habs1952 said:

Let's keep in mind a lot of teams in front of us will need to poop the bed before we get in the playoffs.

But it's looking more and more like other teams could be having injury issues to major pieces just as we are getting healthy. Hart in Philly, Reilly in Toronto and now Hamilton in Carolina. I know those are just 1 player on three different teams but they are also 2 #1 D men and a starting goalie. Maybe we make it maybe we don't but there's no denying that other teams around us are getting weaker as we are getting steonger

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2 hours ago, habs1952 said:

Let's keep in mind a lot of teams in front of us will need to poop the bed before we get in the playoffs.

Yes and no.  Ultimately you cant worry about the teams ahead of you.  Sure, in real terms you need to get past them but if you just concentrate on winning, the rest doesnt really matter.  You get 23-24 wins in the last 33 games & it really doenst matter what the other teams do. You'll have upwards of 96 points and that should be sufficient.

Honestly i think we have a better chance at a #3 division spot than a wildcard entry anyway.

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9 hours ago, campabee82 said:

But it's looking more and more like other teams could be having injury issues to major pieces just as we are getting healthy. Hart in Philly, Reilly in Toronto and now Hamilton in Carolina. I know those are just 1 player on three different teams but they are also 2 #1 D men and a starting goalie. Maybe we make it maybe we don't but there's no denying that other teams around us are getting weaker as we are getting steonger

You're right that teams have some injuries, but the Pens missed Crosby for a long stretch and had one of the best records in the NHL without him. Not every team collapses when they lose key players the way we have a tendency to do. Furthermore, Carolina and Toronto have both been rumored to be very active on the trade market looking to add players, so that could offset the losses they have.

 

8 hours ago, maas_art said:

Yes and no.  Ultimately you cant worry about the teams ahead of you.  Sure, in real terms you need to get past them but if you just concentrate on winning, the rest doesnt really matter.  You get 23-24 wins in the last 33 games & it really doenst matter what the other teams do. You'll have upwards of 96 points and that should be sufficient.

Honestly i think we have a better chance at a #3 division spot than a wildcard entry anyway.

96 pts gives us about a 50-50 shot at the post-season. 97 gives us a 70% chance according to sportsclubstats. That means 48 pts in the last 33 games, or as you said, a record of about 24-9. That's a .727 winning percentage. To put that in perspective, the Caps are #1 in the league by winning percentage thus far this season and they sit at .719. So in our final 33 games, we'd have to play at a better clip than every team has played through their first 48 games. If we compare our position to what the Blues did last year, they finished the year 30-10-5 to make a huge comeback to make the post-season, and that was a .678 pace.

I'm not saying it's impossible and you guys are right that we're getting guys back and our odds are improving, but it just feels like it'll be too little too late. The most likely scenario in my view is that we leapfrog some non-playoff teams and finish with neither a playoff spot nor a top 10 pick, similar to last year. That's once again the worst-case scenario.

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3 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

I'm not saying it's impossible and you guys are right that we're getting guys back and our odds are improving, but it just feels like it'll be too little too late. The most likely scenario in my view is that we leapfrog some non-playoff teams and finish with neither a playoff spot nor a top 10 pick, similar to last year. That's once again the worst-case scenario.

This is exactly my view ... its near impossible, sure if things line up we could end up in the playoffs.   But that would mean hanging your hopes on luck that other teams under perform.   With what the Habs can do thats under their control, we need an incredible record down the stretch that I don't feel this lineup can maintain or achieve.     

Sadly, I think MB thinks they can ... and so rather than commit to a rebuild, he will stay the course, we will miss the playoffs by 2-4 pts.   We wind up with a pick in the 10-15 range and miss out on elite talent or a chance at #1 overall

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13 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

This is exactly my view ... its near impossible, sure if things line up we could end up in the playoffs.   But that would mean hanging your hopes on luck that other teams under perform.   With what the Habs can do thats under their control, we need an incredible record down the stretch that I don't feel this lineup can maintain or achieve.     

Sadly, I think MB thinks they can ... and so rather than commit to a rebuild, he will stay the course, we will miss the playoffs by 2-4 pts.   We wind up with a pick in the 10-15 range and miss out on elite talent or a chance at #1 overall

While I agree right now the playoffs are a long shot and we need a ton of luck down the stretch we do have just the types of players to go on a run this time of year when checking gets closer and the penalties start to decrease. We have the Tatar, Gallagher, Domi, Petry, Weber, Price and Chiarot types it takes to win down the stretch and in the playoffs. This team is built on speed possession and scoring depth all of which makes them a better playoff type of team then Toronto or Edmonton or even Tampa. Sure I would like at least one or two of their super star forwards but those teams are built for wide open goalfests that are regular season games and they usually choke in the playoffs. It's the Columbus, Boston, Washington St. Louis types of teams that play with speed and possession and a balanced attack that normally win the cup.

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13 hours ago, maas_art said:

Yes and no.  Ultimately you cant worry about the teams ahead of you.  Sure, in real terms you need to get past them but if you just concentrate on winning, the rest doesnt really matter.  You get 23-24 wins in the last 33 games & it really doenst matter what the other teams do. You'll have upwards of 96 points and that should be sufficient.

Honestly i think we have a better chance at a #3 division spot than a wildcard entry anyway.

We're 7 points out of a playoff spot and teams ahead have at least one game in hand. They can afford to lose 3 games more than the Habs so yes, it does really matter what other teams do. 

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1 hour ago, campabee82 said:

While I agree right now the playoffs are a long shot and we need a ton of luck down the stretch we do have just the types of players to go on a run this time of year when checking gets closer and the penalties start to decrease. We have the Tatar, Gallagher, Domi, Petry, Weber, Price and Chiarot types it takes to win down the stretch and in the playoffs. This team is built on speed possession and scoring depth all of which makes them a better playoff type of team then Toronto or Edmonton or even Tampa. Sure I would like at least one or two of their super star forwards but those teams are built for wide open goalfests that are regular season games and they usually choke in the playoffs. It's the Columbus, Boston, Washington St. Louis types of teams that play with speed and possession and a balanced attack that normally win the cup.

- Chiarot and Weber are both overrated by fans. Their defensive play has been pretty weak, and I've shown their PK numbers are worst on the team. Good players but not dominant.

- Price has been inconsistent. He needs to be better. Yes, I agree he can win games for us on his own, but he hasn't done much of that this year and in 2 of the past 3 years.

- Gallagher is still out with no clear return date.

- I'm not sure that the list of guys you provided is any better than facing the likes of Pacioretty, Stone, Theodore, Fleury, etc. tonight or facing Crosby, Malkin, Letang, etc when we face the Pens or Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak, McAvoy, Rask when we face Boston or so on. Every team has a list of good players. What makes ours any better? What makes you believe these players are going to win down the stretch when they haven't done it most of their careers? I don't really see why you would argue our group is better than Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Vasievskiy, etc. come playoff time either... I'd easily take the TB roster over ours, despite the fact they blew it last year.

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10 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

- Chiarot and Weber are both overrated by fans. Their defensive play has been pretty weak, and I've shown their PK numbers are worst on the team. Good players but not dominant.

- Price has been inconsistent. He needs to be better. Yes, I agree he can win games for us on his own, but he hasn't done much of that this year and in 2 of the past 3 years.

- Gallagher is still out with no clear return date.

- I'm not sure that the list of guys you provided is any better than facing the likes of Pacioretty, Stone, Theodore, Fleury, etc. tonight or facing Crosby, Malkin, Letang, etc when we face the Pens or Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak, McAvoy, Rask when we face Boston or so on. Every team has a list of good players. What makes ours any better? What makes you believe these players are going to win down the stretch when they haven't done it most of their careers? I don't really see why you would argue our group is better than Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Vasievskiy, etc. come playoff time either... I'd easily take the TB roster over ours, despite the fact they blew it last year.

The PK #'s if you factor the whole year are bad yes. In the last 10 games actually are quite good. Weber leads the team in blocked shots and does a lot of little things on the PK like great stick placement ect. The commentators mention it all the time. You know ex players that actually know the game and see the little things. The radio announcers were just mentioning it last game how much better the overall PK was looking. It takes time to develop chemistry on defense no different than line combos and now the forwards are playing much better during the PK. Losing Byron did hurt the PK unit , adding Suzuki and Poehling both helped. I agree that "if" we do make the playoffs (hopefully when!) we could have a run. Yes it will make a difference if Price is playing to his standards . St. Louis doesn't win last year without an unknown goaltender playing great. No team wins the cup with out good to great goaltending, Price is capable even if he hasn't been great all season. I do agree though it's better to get into the playoffs battling for a spot than to coast in like Tampa did. The game right or wrong is played different during the playoffs also and it is much more of a team game where star players are neutralized more and depth scoring usually always wins in the playoffs. Yes everything has to go right , but that actually is true to every team in the playoffs. Also as above you can choose to cheer for Tampa's line up instead of ours because of the 'star appeal"! I don't think anyone argued that "our " lineup on paper was better than Tampa's "on paper" but was Columbus line last year that much better than our line up? Other than Ternsanko (who's been injured) was St. Louis team on paper better than all the other playoff teams? That is what is great about hockey , once the playoffs start anything can happen. Hero's like Wilson , Claude Lemeaux ect. There are a lot of examples of heroics by non star players in the NHL Playoffs. Most other sports it never happens. Hockey there are upsets all the time. Edmonton has arguably the top two players in the league , in most other sports (NBA especially) your team would be almost guaranteed at least a playoff spot and possibly playing for whatever championship it is having the top two players. That's what's fun about being a fan of a team and a sport. We all can have difference of opinions (and we can think we're right). I think the odds are long but I'm still hoping that we make the playoffs myself. Even if we had a big sell off ( which I don't think will happen, if we agree or not if it should) I don't think we'll fall far enough to get a top 5 even if we're lucky with the lottery. GO HABS GO!!!

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18 minutes ago, CaptWelly said:

The PK #'s if you factor the whole year are bad yes. In the last 10 games actually are quite good. Weber leads the team in blocked shots and does a lot of little things on the PK like great stick placement ect. The commentators mention it all the time. You know ex players that actually know the game and see the little things. The radio announcers were just mentioning it last game how much better the overall PK was looking. It takes time to develop chemistry on defense no different than line combos and now the forwards are playing much better during the PK. Losing Byron did hurt the PK unit , adding Suzuki and Poehling both helped. I agree that "if" we do make the playoffs (hopefully when!) we could have a run. Yes it will make a difference if Price is playing to his standards . St. Louis doesn't win last year without an unknown goaltender playing great. No team wins the cup with out good to great goaltending, Price is capable even if he hasn't been great all season. I do agree though it's better to get into the playoffs battling for a spot than to coast in like Tampa did. The game right or wrong is played different during the playoffs also and it is much more of a team game where star players are neutralized more and depth scoring usually always wins in the playoffs. Yes everything has to go right , but that actually is true to every team in the playoffs. Also as above you can choose to cheer for Tampa's line up instead of ours because of the 'star appeal"! I don't think anyone argued that "our " lineup on paper was better than Tampa's "on paper" but was Columbus line last year that much better than our line up? Other than Ternsanko (who's been injured) was St. Louis team on paper better than all the other playoff teams? That is what is great about hockey , once the playoffs start anything can happen. Hero's like Wilson , Claude Lemeaux ect. There are a lot of examples of heroics by non star players in the NHL Playoffs. Most other sports it never happens. Hockey there are upsets all the time. Edmonton has arguably the top two players in the league , in most other sports (NBA especially) your team would be almost guaranteed at least a playoff spot and possibly playing for whatever championship it is having the top two players. That's what's fun about being a fan of a team and a sport. We all can have difference of opinions (and we can think we're right). I think the odds are long but I'm still hoping that we make the playoffs myself. Even if we had a big sell off ( which I don't think will happen, if we agree or not if it should) I don't think we'll fall far enough to get a top 5 even if we're lucky with the lottery. GO HABS GO!!!

This was my point on paper yes Tampa is better and so are the Leafs but we have beaten both of those teams already this year. Look at the past cup champions how many have been presidents trophy winners in the same year? 8 and the last ones to do it were Chicago in 2012-2013 those stats don't favor the best on paper very well cause the playoffs are softer won by the hardest working tightest knit group that plays the best team game ie the blues and Caps

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59 minutes ago, CaptWelly said:

The PK #'s if you factor the whole year are bad yes. In the last 10 games actually are quite good. Weber leads the team in blocked shots and does a lot of little things on the PK like great stick placement ect. The commentators mention it all the time. You know ex players that actually know the game and see the little things. The radio announcers were just mentioning it last game how much better the overall PK was looking. It takes time to develop chemistry on defense no different than line combos and now the forwards are playing much better during the PK. Losing Byron did hurt the PK unit , adding Suzuki and Poehling both helped. I agree that "if" we do make the playoffs (hopefully when!) we could have a run. Yes it will make a difference if Price is playing to his standards . St. Louis doesn't win last year without an unknown goaltender playing great. No team wins the cup with out good to great goaltending, Price is capable even if he hasn't been great all season. I do agree though it's better to get into the playoffs battling for a spot than to coast in like Tampa did. The game right or wrong is played different during the playoffs also and it is much more of a team game where star players are neutralized more and depth scoring usually always wins in the playoffs. Yes everything has to go right , but that actually is true to every team in the playoffs. Also as above you can choose to cheer for Tampa's line up instead of ours because of the 'star appeal"! I don't think anyone argued that "our " lineup on paper was better than Tampa's "on paper" but was Columbus line last year that much better than our line up? Other than Ternsanko (who's been injured) was St. Louis team on paper better than all the other playoff teams? That is what is great about hockey , once the playoffs start anything can happen. Hero's like Wilson , Claude Lemeaux ect. There are a lot of examples of heroics by non star players in the NHL Playoffs. Most other sports it never happens. Hockey there are upsets all the time. Edmonton has arguably the top two players in the league , in most other sports (NBA especially) your team would be almost guaranteed at least a playoff spot and possibly playing for whatever championship it is having the top two players. That's what's fun about being a fan of a team and a sport. We all can have difference of opinions (and we can think we're right). I think the odds are long but I'm still hoping that we make the playoffs myself. Even if we had a big sell off ( which I don't think will happen, if we agree or not if it should) I don't think we'll fall far enough to get a top 5 even if we're lucky with the lottery. GO HABS GO!!!

 

35 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

This was my point on paper yes Tampa is better and so are the Leafs but we have beaten both of those teams already this year. Look at the past cup champions how many have been presidents trophy winners in the same year? 8 and the last ones to do it were Chicago in 2012-2013 those stats don't favor the best on paper very well cause the playoffs are softer won by the hardest working tightest knit group that plays the best team game ie the blues and Caps

As a fan, I want to see u win the Cup. That's the goal. My view is that if the odds of making the playoffs now are 2-3% and the odds of winning a Cup are < 1%, I'd rather give myself 0% odds this year and 10% odds of winning in 2-3 years than having 1% this season and next. I'm not cheering against the Habs, I'm cheering for the best odds of winning, and that just isn't this year. Like I posted elsewhere, we'd have to play well over .700 hockey the rest of the way to get in this season, and the record we'd need would be President-trophy pace. It's just not a realistic goal, even though I have no problem with fans continuing to cheer for it.

St. Louis last year had a good team on paper, yes. Many hockey pundits picked them pre-season to be in the Cup finals, with the likes of Tarasenko, O'Reilly, Schenn, Pietrangelo, and so on. The reason they surprised is because they under-achieved in the first half of the year and then found their stride after a coaching change. I agree with you that you need a hot goalie to get through the playoffs, and we certainly have a chance of that happening, but you also need your roster to play well, and right now, I don't like our D corps, nor do I like our absence of a game-breaker. We don't have a forward on this team who St. Louis would trade 1 for 1 for this one playoff season in order for us to acquire Tarasenko or ROR. We don't have a defenceman they would trade us 1 for 1 for Pietrangelo. So our top end is not as good as theirs.

As for Tampa, yeah, they blew it in last year's playoffs, but you run that series 10 times and TB probably wins it 7 out of 10. Let's also remember that the Jackets added all kinds of talent at the trade deadline, so they weren't really as weak an opponent as a classic wild card. Finishing first is by no means a guarantee, but if I was placing bets, I'd have more money on one of Bos, TB, Was, or Pit representing the East than anyone else. And if it's not one of them, it's more likely that it'll be the Isles, Leafs, Canes, or Panthers than it will be a surprise entrant like the Habs, Rangers, or Blue Jackets. Yes, any team can absolutely move through the playoffs, but the fact remains the odds are strongly against us and Bergevin has done little to address the team's biggest needs.

 

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23 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

 

As a fan, I want to see u win the Cup. That's the goal. My view is that if the odds of making the playoffs now are 2-3% and the odds of winning a Cup are < 1%, I'd rather give myself 0% odds this year and 10% odds of winning in 2-3 years than having 1% this season and next. I'm not cheering against the Habs, I'm cheering for the best odds of winning, and that just isn't this year. Like I posted elsewhere, we'd have to play well over .700 hockey the rest of the way to get in this season, and the record we'd need would be President-trophy pace. It's just not a realistic goal, even though I have no problem with fans continuing to cheer for it.

 

This.     This in spades.     A good GM would realize pushing to make the playoffs this year is futile.   Not only are the chances of making it slim, the chances of winning a series let alone the cup are slim to none.    You've got veteran assets that teams who will make the playoffs and will compete for the cup may pay dearly for, improving your odds of making the playoffs in the future much better, improving your roster to maybe win some series and actually compete for the cup.    

Pushing to make it this year only solidifies that the Habs will be a bubble team for longer than they need to be.

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3 hours ago, habs1952 said:

We're 7 points out of a playoff spot and teams ahead have at least one game in hand. They can afford to lose 3 games more than the Habs so yes, it does really matter what other teams do. 

Actually, it doesnt. 

If you win all 33 games you make the playoffs, end of story.   Obviously we're not going to and - we're likely not going to win enough to make the playoffs but - at this stage - the team still has complete control in their hands. 



 

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1 hour ago, HabsAlways said:

This.     This in spades.     A good GM would realize pushing to make the playoffs this year is futile.   Not only are the chances of making it slim, the chances of winning a series let alone the cup are slim to none.    You've got veteran assets that teams who will make the playoffs and will compete for the cup may pay dearly for, improving your odds of making the playoffs in the future much better, improving your roster to maybe win some series and actually compete for the cup.    

Pushing to make it this year only solidifies that the Habs will be a bubble team for longer than they need to be.

The way I look at it is this we currently sit 7th last in the league at 6.5% chance of winning the lottery I don't see any of the bottom 6 passing us no matter who you trade and I also see us passing at least 3 teams ahead of us even if you traded every vet. So that means by years end we will be picking at best 10th unless we win the lottery. Ted stated our chances to make the playoffs were 2-3% so if our chances of making the playoffs will be the same as our chances of winning the lottery even after trades then why not push for the playoffs? What's better for the team playoffs or picking 10th or worse?

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2 hours ago, campabee82 said:

The way I look at it is this we currently sit 7th last in the league at 6.5% chance of winning the lottery I don't see any of the bottom 6 passing us no matter who you trade and I also see us passing at least 3 teams ahead of us even if you traded every vet. So that means by years end we will be picking at best 10th unless we win the lottery. Ted stated our chances to make the playoffs were 2-3% so if our chances of making the playoffs will be the same as our chances of winning the lottery even after trades then why not push for the playoffs? What's better for the team playoffs or picking 10th or worse?

You're leaving out a large part of the story though. The Habs have a 6.5% chance of the TOP pick, but they have a 20.4% chance of winning one of the three lottery spots and getting a top 3 selection. To me, that means you're getting one of Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Raymond, or Drysdale, or whoever else you want. Those are players who project as top line/pairing players. It also means you're very likely to get a top 8 pick and guaranteed a top 10 pick. If the Habs do trade away players and manage to fall down the standings a bit, the numbers could be even better than that.

Conversely, if you push for the playoffs, then currently, yes, we have a 2-3% chance of getting in. The problem is that there is a 97-98% chance then that you don't make it and if you don't get in but come close, you have high odds of picking in the 12-5 range as we did last year. That's no-man's land for an organization, with lower odds of finding a game-changer.

So I'd dispute you on two points:

1. The odds are not 6.5% vs. 2-3%. The odds are 20.4% (and maybe better) of winning a top 3 pick vs. a 2-3% chance of getting in combined with maybe a 3-6% chance of a top 3 pick.

2. The worst-case scenario in these situations is also different. If you finish 7th-last as we are now, the worst-case scenario is a 10th overall pick. If you push for the playoffs and fall just short, the worst-case scenario is a 15th overall pick. So not only are the odds of a good outcome (a top 3 pick) much better than the odds of the playoffs (2-3%) going the "tank" route than the "push for playoff" route, the downside is also worse in the latter situation. On top of that, I'd argue that making the 1st round of the playoffs isn't necessarily a win. It doesn't put you that much further ahead as an organization than being a team that just missed the playoffs unless you move through the playoffs and win at least a round or two. And again, if your ultimate goal is to win the Cup, does a top 3 overall pick this year or making the playoffs but going out in the first round put you closer to getting there? I understand you can debate this both ways, but to me, getting a top 3 pick gets you there faster.

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8 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

You're leaving out a large part of the story though. The Habs have a 6.5% chance of the TOP pick, but they have a 20.4% chance of winning one of the three lottery spots and getting a top 3 selection. To me, that means you're getting one of Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Raymond, or Drysdale, or whoever else you want. Those are players who project as top line/pairing players. It also means you're very likely to get a top 8 pick and guaranteed a top 10 pick. If the Habs do trade away players and manage to fall down the standings a bit, the numbers could be even better than that.

Conversely, if you push for the playoffs, then currently, yes, we have a 2-3% chance of getting in. The problem is that there is a 97-98% chance then that you don't make it and if you don't get in but come close, you have high odds of picking in the 12-5 range as we did last year. That's no-man's land for an organization, with lower odds of finding a game-changer.

So I'd dispute you on two points:

1. The odds are not 6.5% vs. 2-3%. The odds are 20.4% (and maybe better) of winning a top 3 pick vs. a 2-3% chance of getting in combined with maybe a 3-6% chance of a top 3 pick.

2. The worst-case scenario in these situations is also different. If you finish 7th-last as we are now, the worst-case scenario is a 10th overall pick. If you push for the playoffs and fall just short, the worst-case scenario is a 15th overall pick. So not only are the odds of a good outcome (a top 3 pick) much better than the odds of the playoffs (2-3%) going the "tank" route than the "push for playoff" route, the downside is also worse in the latter situation. On top of that, I'd argue that making the 1st round of the playoffs isn't necessarily a win. It doesn't put you that much further ahead as an organization than being a team that just missed the playoffs unless you move through the playoffs and win at least a round or two. And again, if your ultimate goal is to win the Cup, does a top 3 overall pick this year or making the playoffs but going out in the first round put you closer to getting there? I understand you can debate this both ways, but to me, getting a top 3 pick gets you there faster.

I did point out that right now our odds are 6.5% but we are likely to fall beyond that even after trading players cause we are more likely to pass the likes of Buffalo, Chicago, Columbus, New York Rangers among others even after trades are made so your theory only works if we trade pretty much everyone and don't get back any NHL players at all

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4 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

You're leaving out a large part of the story though. The Habs have a 6.5% chance of the TOP pick, but they have a 20.4% chance of winning one of the three lottery spots and getting a top 3 selection. To me, that means you're getting one of Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle, Raymond, or Drysdale, or whoever else you want. Those are players who project as top line/pairing players. It also means you're very likely to get a top 8 pick and guaranteed a top 10 pick. If the Habs do trade away players and manage to fall down the standings a bit, the numbers could be even better than that.

Conversely, if you push for the playoffs, then currently, yes, we have a 2-3% chance of getting in. The problem is that there is a 97-98% chance then that you don't make it and if you don't get in but come close, you have high odds of picking in the 12-5 range as we did last year. That's no-man's land for an organization, with lower odds of finding a game-changer.

So I'd dispute you on two points:

1. The odds are not 6.5% vs. 2-3%. The odds are 20.4% (and maybe better) of winning a top 3 pick vs. a 2-3% chance of getting in combined with maybe a 3-6% chance of a top 3 pick.

2. The worst-case scenario in these situations is also different. If you finish 7th-last as we are now, the worst-case scenario is a 10th overall pick. If you push for the playoffs and fall just short, the worst-case scenario is a 15th overall pick. So not only are the odds of a good outcome (a top 3 pick) much better than the odds of the playoffs (2-3%) going the "tank" route than the "push for playoff" route, the downside is also worse in the latter situation. On top of that, I'd argue that making the 1st round of the playoffs isn't necessarily a win. It doesn't put you that much further ahead as an organization than being a team that just missed the playoffs unless you move through the playoffs and win at least a round or two. And again, if your ultimate goal is to win the Cup, does a top 3 overall pick this year or making the playoffs but going out in the first round put you closer to getting there? I understand you can debate this both ways, but to me, getting a top 3 pick gets you there faster.

I think you missed where I said I don't believe even trading away all our vets that Detroit, Los Angeles, New Jersey, Ottawa, Anaheim, San Jose, Minnesota or New York passing us that puts us at best 9th OVA pick that's what 4% at 1st OVA and like 15% top 3. However we are still likely to pass at least 1 or 2 of Nashville, Chicago, Buffalo putting us in your no man's land. So if MB trades Weber to say Edmonton for 1st + 2nd + Russell + Gangon + Bouchard then Bouchard likely steps in the rest of this year. Then say we trade Price to the Avs for Byram + 1st + 3rd while we retain 2.5 Mil. Now we trade Petry to say Pionk + 1st + 3rd and Tatar to Vegas for 1st + 2nd + 4th our lineup is still

Drouin-Danault-Gallagher

Lehkonen-Domi-Suzuki

Byron-Kotkaniemi-Kovelchuk

Poehling-Thompson-Armia

Now or D is

Byram-Bouchard

Chairot-Pionk

Mete-Fluery

Russell

Primeau

Lindgren

That lineup will still likely get you around 80-95 points that puts you in the dreaded no man's land your trying to avoid. I would put our chances at falling back further after trades like the ones outlined above at maybe 5% and 80-90% that we pass at least 2 of the four above us leaving like 5-15% we finish where we are. That's why I would rather push for a playoff spot. I don't think subtracting from this club would be enough to drop in the standings. I think if you truly want to drop you have to basically give those guys away for just picks no players coming back and fill the holes with the likes of Weal, Cousins, Wiese, Alzner and Peca. Which would again make no sense.

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18 hours ago, campabee82 said:

I think you missed where I said I don't believe even trading away all our vets that Detroit, Los Angeles, New Jersey, Ottawa, Anaheim, San Jose, Minnesota or New York passing us that puts us at best 9th OVA pick that's what 4% at 1st OVA and like 15% top 3. However we are still likely to pass at least 1 or 2 of Nashville, Chicago, Buffalo putting us in your no man's land. So if MB trades Weber to say Edmonton for 1st + 2nd + Russell + Gangon + Bouchard then Bouchard likely steps in the rest of this year. Then say we trade Price to the Avs for Byram + 1st + 3rd while we retain 2.5 Mil. Now we trade Petry to say Pionk + 1st + 3rd and Tatar to Vegas for 1st + 2nd + 4th our lineup is still

Drouin-Danault-Gallagher

Lehkonen-Domi-Suzuki

Byron-Kotkaniemi-Kovelchuk

Poehling-Thompson-Armia

Now or D is

Byram-Bouchard

Chairot-Pionk

Mete-Fluery

Russell

Primeau

Lindgren

That lineup will still likely get you around 80-95 points that puts you in the dreaded no man's land your trying to avoid. I would put our chances at falling back further after trades like the ones outlined above at maybe 5% and 80-90% that we pass at least 2 of the four above us leaving like 5-15% we finish where we are. That's why I would rather push for a playoff spot. I don't think subtracting from this club would be enough to drop in the standings. I think if you truly want to drop you have to basically give those guys away for just picks no players coming back and fill the holes with the likes of Weal, Cousins, Wiese, Alzner and Peca. Which would again make no sense.

So I would disagree with you about the list of teams you think we would stay ahead of... if we dealt away Tatar, Petry, and Weber, I don't think at all that it's a given we would finish ahead of the Rangers, Wild, Ducks, Sharks, or even Sens. Part of it would depend on luck, on injuries, strength of schedule, and so on. But I think our D would be pretty bare-bones in terms of having rookies or depth players only, and that would easily be our weakest link. Even now, when we can produce offence, our D is so porous that it costs us games, and I don't believe that would suddenly improve by getting rid of your two best defencemen.

You're right in saying we could end up finishing 7th or 9th last instead, but there's also a decent chance of a bottom 5 finish and no matter how you cut it, the odds of winning the lottery and the odds of a better pick are higher if you 'tank" than if you go for the playoffs. My bottom line is that the odds of making the playoffs before last night's game were 2-3%. Even if you play lights out and put up a .600 record the rest of the way, it's not enough. We'd have a 0.1% chance of making the post-season. If you play .650, it's still not enough. And it's only a 4.8% chance of making the playoffs. If we play .682 hockey the rest of the way, sportsclubstats gives us a 35% chance of getting in. And we've have to go all the way to 24-9 the rest of the way to have a 70% chance of the post-season, which is .727 hockey. As I posted, that's a better winning percentage than the NHL-leading Washington Capitals have right now. Is it impossible? No. But it's pretty darn close. I just don't see this team being good enough to only lose 9-10 games in the last 33. If you believe they can, then yes, going for the playoffs makes sense, but I just don't see it. I believe the Habs can have one of the top 8 records in the East the rest of the way, but that's just not enough.

Everyone is talking about how we're 6 points back of Toronto and Florida now, which doesn't seem terrible. But we're also behind Buffalo (and a bunch of other teams in the other division if you want to talk wildcard). Maybe 6 points doesn't seem like a lot, but the Leafs and Panthers are playing around .600 hockey on the year, and while Toronto is missing Rielly, they also have that .600 record despite missing Tavares for an extended period of time. So let's say the Leafs and Panthers play their own game and go 6-4 over their next 10 games. Not withstanding the fact those teams also have games in hand on us, that means that just to pull even in terms of points, we'd have to go 9-1. Then we'd have to win the tie-break and we'd have to hope the Leafs lose their one game in hand and the Panthers their 3 games in hand. And that's just to get even. Again, if the Panthers play the same way over their 3 games in hand as they have all year, statistically they get at least 3 and probably 4 points out of those 3 games in hand. So then, if they go 6-4 in the next 10 games, you have to go at least 8-2 in the 10 games after to pull even. That means you're now looking at a 17-3 record over the next 20 to pull even with a dozen games to go down the stretch. Again, can it happen? Yes. Is it likely? No. And sure Toronto or Florida could slump, but you would need all of Toronto, Florida, and Buffalo to have a bad stretch to pull into the 3rd spot in the division. Right now, we're not only 6 points out, we're 6 points out with all the other teams having games in hand and with a heck of a lot of teams sitting between us and a playoff spot. Even with our recent little streak over the past 5 games, we're still a long ways away and I just don't think it's realistic to believe we have a reasonable enough shot at the playoffs to make it worth giving up draft position.

And if you don't think that draft position matters, let's take a look back at the 2018 draft... the 4-7 picks were Tkachuk, Hayton, Zadina, and Hughes. The 12-15 picks were Dobson, Dellandrea, Farabee, and Denisenko. In 2017, 4-7 were Makar, Pettersson, Glass, and Andersson. 12-15 were Necas, Suzuki, Foote, and Brannstrom. Yes, you will find good talent at 12-15, but it's a drop-off compared to the guys you can get in the top 5-7 picks. Tkachuk, Hughes, Makar, and Petersson are all miles ahead of any of those 12-15 picks and those guys are all already 1st-line forwards or top-pairing D men. So even within 2-3 years of being drafted, you have a reasonable chance at getting an impact player. And this is all not even talking about the increased odds of winning a lottery spot and getting a top 3 pick... ask me if I would trade Suzuki and an 8-seed in the playoffs this year to be able to get Makar or Pettersson and the answer is a resounding yes every time.

 

 

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43 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

 Everyone is talking about how we're 6 points back of Toronto and Florida now, which doesn't seem terrible. But we're also behind Buffalo (and a bunch of other teams in the other division if you want to talk wildcard). Maybe 6 points doesn't seem like a lot, but the Leafs and Panthers are playing around .600 hockey on the year, and while Toronto is missing Rielly, they also have that .600 record despite missing Tavares for an extended period of time. So let's say the Leafs and Panthers play their own game and go 6-4 over their next 10 games. Not withstanding the fact those teams also have games in hand on us, that means that just to pull even in terms of points, we'd have to go 9-1. Then we'd have to win the tie-break and we'd have to hope the Leafs lose their one game in hand and the Panthers their 3 games in hand. And that's just to get even. Again, if the Panthers play the same way over their 3 games in hand as they have all year, statistically they get at least 3 and probably 4 points out of those 3 games in hand. So then, if they go 6-4 in the next 10 games, you have to go at least 8-2 in the 10 games after to pull even. That means you're now looking at a 17-3 record over the next 20 to pull even with a dozen games to go down the stretch. Again, can it happen? Yes. Is it likely? No. And sure Toronto or Florida could slump, but you would need all of Toronto, Florida, and Buffalo to have a bad stretch to pull into the 3rd spot in the division. 

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but your math is off if we go 9-1 over the next 10 games and both Toronto and Florida go 6-4 the we pass both at the same time and we don't need to go 17-3 as you stated above. Also we play Florida 3 times that makes up 6 the 6 point deficit and we play the Leafs 2 making up 4 points if we win those games then your only looking at having to play about .610 hockey ourselves the rest of the way to make it in the top 3 in the Atlantic. We also play Buffalo 3 times so we have lots of points up for grabs within our division it's not like we are 10-15 points behind

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43 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but your math is off if we go 9-1 over the next 10 games and both Toronto and Florida go 6-4 the we pass both at the same time and we don't need to go 17-3 as you stated above. Also we play Florida 3 times that makes up 6 the 6 point deficit and we play the Leafs 2 making up 4 points if we win those games then your only looking at having to play about .610 hockey ourselves the rest of the way to make it in the top 3 in the Atlantic. We also play Buffalo 3 times so we have lots of points up for grabs within our division it's not like we are 10-15 points behind

I agree if we win our division games and a good portion of our conference games it's defiantly doable. Yes draft position can change the type of player you "might" get but there are also a lot of projected sure things that don't turn out. There have been a lot of great players taken in later rounds there are no absolute sure things and usually most are years away from being an impact player.

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44 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but your math is off if we go 9-1 over the next 10 games and both Toronto and Florida go 6-4 the we pass both at the same time and we don't need to go 17-3 as you stated above. Also we play Florida 3 times that makes up 6 the 6 point deficit and we play the Leafs 2 making up 4 points if we win those games then your only looking at having to play about .610 hockey ourselves the rest of the way to make it in the top 3 in the Atlantic. We also play Buffalo 3 times so we have lots of points up for grabs within our division it's not like we are 10-15 points behind

Not sure how my math is off... I'll explain what I wrote:

If we're 6 points behind Tor and Fla now and we get 18 points over our next 10 games and the other two teams go 6-4 and get 12 pts over that span, then we would have 51 + 18 = 69 pts and Tor and Fla would have 57 + 12 = 69 pts. Florida would still have 3 games in hand and Toronto 1. I then added that if Florida continues to play roughly .600 hockey over those 3 games in hand, they'd add another 3-4 points. If they add 4 more points in those games in hand, that would put them at 73 pts. Then I added that if they play .600 hockey over their next 10 games, that would put them at 85 pts. So for us to move from 69 to 85 as well, we would have to go 8-2 in our next 10 games. 9-1 plus 8-2 means a total of 17-3 in order to be tied with Florida at 85 pts after each team has played 70 games. That's the math. All I'm saying is that if Florida continues to play at exactly the same pace they've played all year, they'll be at 85 points after 70 games. For us to get there too, we need to go 17-3.

Yes, we can make up some of this in the head to heads, but you're also assuming we go 5-0 with all 5 wins in regulation against Fla and Tor in addition to whatever else we need to make up.

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2 minutes ago, CaptWelly said:

I agree if we win our division games and a good portion of our conference games it's defiantly doable. Yes draft position can change the type of player you "might" get but there are also a lot of projected sure things that don't turn out. There have been a lot of great players taken in later rounds there are no absolute sure things and usually most are years away from being an impact player.

There are no guarantees, sure. But Brian Wilde did an analysis of draft picks by position and I've done something similar in the past, whereby you look at the chances of a draftee becoming an NHL regular... his analysis showed 95% of picks in the 1-5 range became NHL regulars, 80% for picks 6-10, 65% for picks 11-20, and 50% for picks 21-30, with 30% for first half of 2nd round and 15% for 2nd half of the 2nd round. And this doesn't even take into account those players are. Yes, there will be guys from later rounds who have great careers, but the odds at the top of the draft of finding those players is just so much higher.

Just look at the players who have 50 or more points so far this season:

- McDavid 1st overall

- Draisaitl 3rd overall

- Mackinnon 1st overall

- Pastrnak 25th overall

- Panarin undrafted

- Marchand 3rd round

- Huberdeau 3rd overall

- Eichel 2nd overall

- Kane 1st overall

- Carlsson 27th overall

- Matthews 1st overall

- Kucherov 2nd round

- Scheifele 7th overall

- Pettersson 5th overall

- Barkov 2nd overall

- Malkin 2nd overall

- Ovechkin 1st overall

 

10 of those 17 players are top 3 picks, another 2 were top 7. That's not a coincidence. It's not a crapshoot that 12 of the top scoring leaders are top 7 picks. Again, yes there are guys outside the top 10 picks who are great players, but the odds of finding a star are so much higher than going further down the line. Like I've said, hard to justify giving up a better shot at a top 3 pick and a great chance at a top 5-10 pick in exchange for a 3% chance at making the playoffs.

 

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Not sure how my math is off... I'll explain what I wrote:

If we're 6 points behind Tor and Fla now and we get 18 points over our next 10 games and the other two teams go 6-4 and get 12 pts over that span, then we would have 51 + 18 = 69 pts and Tor and Fla would have 57 + 12 = 69 pts. Florida would still have 3 games in hand and Toronto 1. I then added that if Florida continues to play roughly .600 hockey over those 3 games in hand, they'd add another 3-4 points. If they add 4 more points in those games in hand, that would put them at 73 pts. Then I added that if they play .600 hockey over their next 10 games, that would put them at 85 pts. So for us to move from 69 to 85 as well, we would have to go 8-2 in our next 10 games. 9-1 plus 8-2 means a total of 17-3 in order to be tied with Florida at 85 pts after each team has played 70 games. That's the math. All I'm saying is that if Florida continues to play at exactly the same pace they've played all year, they'll be at 85 points after 70 games. For us to get there too, we need to go 17-3.

Yes, we can make up some of this in the head to heads, but you're also assuming we go 5-0 with all 5 wins in regulation against Fla and Tor in addition to whatever else we need to make up.

My apologies I missed where you said the 8-2 in the games AFTER. I thought you were just adding the 10 game records to catch both Toronto and Florida LOL. 

As for the last part I did assume 5-0 against the Leafs and Panthers however seeing as we have already gone 2-0 vs the Leafs I don't think it's a stretch to beat them twice more especially with Rielly out. Florida is a different story altogether our record against them this year is 0-1-0 our only game being a 6-5 regulation loss on Dec 29th. So even w8nning the last 3 isn't outside the realm of possibility. Is it likely probably not but without hope what is left? As long as we are not mathematically eliminated I will always keep faith and hope they push for the playoffs cause otherwise we are just cheering for losers.

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19 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

There are no guarantees, sure. But Brian Wilde did an analysis of draft picks by position and I've done something similar in the past, whereby you look at the chances of a draftee becoming an NHL regular... his analysis showed 95% of picks in the 1-5 range became NHL regulars, 80% for picks 6-10, 65% for picks 11-20, and 50% for picks 21-30, with 30% for first half of 2nd round and 15% for 2nd half of the 2nd round. And this doesn't even take into account those players are. Yes, there will be guys from later rounds who have great careers, but the odds at the top of the draft of finding those players is just so much higher.

Just look at the players who have 50 or more points so far this season:

- McDavid 1st overall

- Draisaitl 3rd overall

- Mackinnon 1st overall

- Pastrnak 25th overall

- Panarin undrafted

- Marchand 3rd round

- Huberdeau 3rd overall

- Eichel 2nd overall

- Kane 1st overall

- Carlsson 27th overall

- Matthews 1st overall

- Kucherov 2nd round

- Scheifele 7th overall

- Pettersson 5th overall

- Barkov 2nd overall

- Malkin 2nd overall

- Ovechkin 1st overall

 

10 of those 17 players are top 3 picks, another 2 were top 7. That's not a coincidence. It's not a crapshoot that 12 of the top scoring leaders are top 7 picks. Again, yes there are guys outside the top 10 picks who are great players, but the odds of finding a star are so much higher than going further down the line. Like I've said, hard to justify giving up a better shot at a top 3 pick and a great chance at a top 5-10 pick in exchange for a 3% chance at making the playoffs.

 

How many different years of drafts are those 10 maybe? So if top 5 is great than there would be 30 players outside that list alone top 10 drafted out of 10 years 100 players 70 outside of that list. Even with a huge sell off we probably won't finish with a draft of top 5. Also only a few on that list have Stanley Cups .... at least so far.

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