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TRADE DEADLINE - KOVY, THOMPSON, PECA, COUSINS TRADED


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The Islanders just gave up a 2nd round pick for 37 year-old Andy Greene, which just confirms that it is a seller's market... from Bergevin's perspective, you'd have to think Scandella is as valuable as Andy Greene. Maybe no other team is dumb enough to give up a 2nd rounder, but maybe a 3rd or 4th is not out of the question.

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2 minutes ago, Habberwacky said:

NJ with three first rounders now. One from Vancouver, Arizona and their own

The one from Tampa is indeed a conditional pick from Vancouver. Coleman is a 28 year old center with 20 goals this year and another year left on his deal for 1.8 mill

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24 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

The one from Tampa is indeed a conditional pick from Vancouver. Coleman is a 28 year old center with 20 goals this year and another year left on his deal for 1.8 mill

The condition is only the one that Tampa agreed to with Vancouver when they acquired the pick from the Canucks... if the Nucks miss the playoffs, then NJ gets Vancouver's 2021 1st round pick instead. Either way, it's a Canucks' pick that's going back so it could easily be a 16-20 range pick this year or even a lottery pick next year. That's a nice pick up for NJ, to go along with the 2nd they got for Greene. Not to mention that Foote was a 1st rounder last year, so this isn't a failed project. NJ just got essentially two first round picks for a mid-level player with two 20-goal seasons to his name at age 28. They've dealt Greene and Coleman for essentially two 1st's and a 2nd.

If you look at that, then I see seller's market written all over this season. There's no way those two teams would pay that much if they had other options that were better. So you look at that and you wonder about Kovalchuk being at least a 2nd and maybe a 1st. You look at Scandella maybe being a 3rd or 4th. You look at Thompson maybe being a 3rd. You look at Cousins maybe being a 3rd. Weise maybe a 4th or 5th? And Petry and Tatar at this point would have to be a 1st, a blue chip prospect, and another asset. Not saying they would do it by any means, but you could easily ask a return for either one of those guys that could be along the lines of "Broberg, Puljujarvi and a 1st" or "Dobson, Wahlstrom, and a 2nd" or so on... that's how much of a seller's market this is shaping up to be.

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I believe we're looking at this tanking for Lafeneier is all wrong because our chances of drafting him are about the same as our PO chances. Here's my take. If we "really" want him, forget the tank and just wait until some team chooses him and then ask what they want for him. It will cost a lot, but then there's no wishing and hoping. If MB was willing to part ways with 4 1sts to get Aho, then you could offer the team that drafts Lafreniere 4 1sts, and a few roster players. :freu1:. Win, win. 

YW. :)

 

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1 hour ago, kinot-2 said:

I believe we're looking at this tanking for Lafeneier is all wrong because our chances of drafting him are about the same as our PO chances. Here's my take. If we "really" want him, forget the tank and just wait until some team chooses him and then ask what they want for him. It will cost a lot, but then there's no wishing and hoping. If MB was willing to part ways with 4 1sts to get Aho, then you could offer the team that drafts Lafreniere 4 1sts, and a few roster players. :freu1:. Win, win. 

YW. :)

 

No. Once a team drafts a guy, they're harder to trade for. Why? Because then the GM feels remorse for his trade and worries that the guy he traded will make him look bad. If a GM trades a pick, they can always talk about how they would have taken someone else and/or they feel less attached to the actual player. When they trade a guy they've drafted, if he goes on to become a star, they will be shamed for it to a higher degree. I seriously doubt anyone would trade Lafreniere nor the top pick if they win the lottery... how many 1st overall picks have been traded before playing a game for their first team? I can think of Lindros and the Nords were forced into doing that but still drafted him anyways, and that worked out pretty well for Quebec.

Further to that, I'd argue the odds of drafting Lafreniere are not the same as our playoff chances... the odds of making the playoffs right now, according to sportsclubstats, are at 1.3%. The odds of winning the lottery are 6.5%. But not only are the odds of Lafreniere 4-5 times higher already, the other part that's left out by just looking at that number is this:

- right now, being 7th last, the Habs have over a 20% chance of getting a top 3 pick. Even if you lose out on Lafreniere, you are getting Byfield or Stutzle or Drysdale.

- at 7th last, you have a 100% chance of getting a top 10 pick.

- If you strive for the playoffs and come up short, there's no consolation prize like there is for finishing 2nd or 3rd last. if you finish 2nd last, you get a guaranteed top 5 pick and a 13.5% chance at Lafreniere and a near-40% chance of a top 3 pick. If you finish runner-up in the race to the playoffs, you get no playoffs and you get very little shot at winning the lottery either. You end up where we ended up last year with the 15th overall pick.

So I strongly disagree with you statements, sorry. The odds of a high pick are higher than the odds of a playoff appearance, the odds of falling down the standings are much higher than the ability to go 17-4 the rest of the way and make the playoffs anyways, and the payout for finishing just short of your goal is much higher in the case of a "tank." I don't see these two options as being near-equivalent in the least. If you told me the Habs had to play .570 hockey to have a 50% chance at the playoffs, that would be different. We're talking about a team having to play about .800 hockey to have a 50% shot or better.

 

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5 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

No. Once a team drafts a guy, they're harder to trade for. Why? Because then the GM feels remorse for his trade and worries that the guy he traded will make him look bad. If a GM trades a pick, they can always talk about how they would have taken someone else and/or they feel less attached to the actual player. When they trade a guy they've drafted, if he goes on to become a star, they will be shamed for it to a higher degree. I seriously doubt anyone would trade Lafreniere nor the top pick if they win the lottery... how many 1st overall picks have been traded before playing a game for their first team? I can think of Lindros and the Nords were forced into doing that but still drafted him anyways, and that worked out pretty well for Quebec.

Further to that, I'd argue the odds of drafting Lafreniere are not the same as our playoff chances... the odds of making the playoffs right now, according to sportsclubstats, are at 1.3%. The odds of winning the lottery are 6.5%. But not only are the odds of Lafreniere 4-5 times higher already, the other part that's left out by just looking at that number is this:

- right now, being 7th last, the Habs have over a 20% chance of getting a top 3 pick. Even if you lose out on Lafreniere, you are getting Byfield or Stutzle or Drysdale.

- at 7th last, you have a 100% chance of getting a top 10 pick.

- If you strive for the playoffs and come up short, there's no consolation prize like there is for finishing 2nd or 3rd last. if you finish 2nd last, you get a guaranteed top 5 pick and a 13.5% chance at Lafreniere and a near-40% chance of a top 3 pick. If you finish runner-up in the race to the playoffs, you get no playoffs and you get very little shot at winning the lottery either. You end up where we ended up last year with the 15th overall pick.

So I strongly disagree with you statements, sorry. The odds of a high pick are higher than the odds of a playoff appearance, the odds of falling down the standings are much higher than the ability to go 17-4 the rest of the way and make the playoffs anyways, and the payout for finishing just short of your goal is much higher in the case of a "tank." I don't see these two options as being near-equivalent in the least. If you told me the Habs had to play .570 hockey to have a 50% chance at the playoffs, that would be different. We're talking about a team having to play about .800 hockey to have a 50% shot or better.

 

And it only took an hour to get shot down. :6351:

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1 minute ago, BigTed3 said:

Toffoli to the Canucks.

Return rumored to be

- 29 year-old journeyman Tim Schaller (i.e. a throw-in for cap money)

- a 2nd round pick

- prospect Tyler Madden (recent 3rd round pick from 2018)

- a second conditional pick (not sure what) if Toffoli re-signs in Vancouver.

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So how many sellers with 1st round picks left who might be interested in one of Tatar, Domi, Petry, or Kovalchuk? By my count...

Bos, NYI, TB (their own 1st), Was, Phi, Stl, Col, Fla, Car x 2, Cal, Edm, LV, Dal, Nas, Wpg, Clb...

I'd be surprised to see Phi, Clb, Nas, Wpg, or Edm give up their 1st rounders, albeit I guess nothing is impossible.

Best candidates (most likely) to give up a 1st IMO would be Carolina (since they have 2), LV, Col, Stl, and Bos.

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5 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

So how many sellers with 1st round picks left who might be interested in one of Tatar, Domi, Petry, or Kovalchuk? By my count...

Bos, NYI, TB (their own 1st), Was, Phi, Stl, Col, Fla, Car x 2, Cal, Edm, LV, Dal, Nas, Wpg, Clb...

I'd be surprised to see Phi, Clb, Nas, Wpg, or Edm give up their 1st rounders, albeit I guess nothing is impossible.

Best candidates (most likely) to give up a 1st IMO would be Carolina (since they have 2), LV, Col, Stl, and Bos.

I don't really want any of those first round picks alone it would of course have to have some sweetener either a prospect or a fair roster player too. now a first for Kovy ..ok!

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1 hour ago, ramcharger440 said:

I don't really want any of those first round picks alone it would of course have to have some sweetener either a prospect or a fair roster player too. now a first for Kovy ..ok!

Wasn't suggesting alone, but in most trades, you're going to want a 1st plus a Grade A prospect (if it's for Tatar, Petry, Gallagher, Domi, etc.)... they need to have the 1st rounder to start with, and the 2020 draft is deep, so it's a good year to go after picks.

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21 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Wasn't suggesting alone, but in most trades, you're going to want a 1st plus a Grade A prospect (if it's for Tatar, Petry, Gallagher, Domi, etc.)... they need to have the 1st rounder to start with, and the 2020 draft is deep, so it's a good year to go after picks.

In an ideal world we'd be flipping Tatar, Petry, Price and Weber ... retaining Gallagher/Domi as the veteran group going forward.    I doubt we trade Price/Weber but if we did ...  those first 4 guys would net 3-4 1st round picks, 3-4 excellent prospects and whatever else we can get ... rapidly accelerating a rebuild.

Sadly, I think MB believes Price/Weber can still get us to the cup even with a "reset" ... despite all evidence pointing to the fact we're 2-3 years away and by then those two will be in decline.

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1 hour ago, H_T_L said:

I'm shockingly surprised at what we got for Scandella. I was ready to toss him on the garbage heap. 

Same.  MB again shows he can make some terrific secondary deals.  Now we need him to make a couple of impact ones.  A very good article by Jared Book over at HEOTP this morning about how MB's time has run out & he needs to start making the big moves, the little tinkering wont cut it any more. 

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